Louisville catcher Henry Davis has an incredible eye at the plate, rarely swinging and missing, making hard contact with power, and showing a plus arm with good hands on defense.
So why the &^@$ isn’t he the top prospect in this draft class?
The assumption all spring has been that the first overall pick, held by Pittsburgh, would be one of the two Vanderbilt right-handers, Jack Leiter (No. 1 on my board) or Kumar Rocker. But the industry has long held that position players are safer picks than pitchers, and there are few more valuable position players than catchers who can hit and defend. Davis can do those things, and there aren’t many better hitters in this class at any position
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Davis has an elite approach at the plate, an ideal combination of selectivity, pitch recognition, and hand acceleration, so that he just doesn’t swing and miss. I saw one swing-and-miss in 10 plate appearances over two games, and his whiff rate this season is only around 6 percent, while he reached base safely in eight of those trips to the plate via five hits and three walks. His swing is beautiful, with the aforementioned quick hands and great hip rotation to allow him to drive the ball, and he showed no problem catching up to 96-97 against UVA. Behind the plate, he receives well but needs some work with blocking, while the Cavaliers never even tested his plus arm.
Two days of watching Davis gave me strong Buster Posey vibes, and Posey, who went fifth overall in the 2008 draft, should have gone first. (He was No. 2 on my draft board that year, behind Tim Beckham, who was the first overall pick and the consensus top prospect. I had it wrong.) Posey hit with the old silly bats, but his .463/.566/.879 line as a junior — with a nearly 2:1 walk to strikeout ratio — would probably look a lot like Davis’ current line of .409/.533/.678, with a BB:K ratio over 2 if Posey used the modern composite bats the NCAA requires now.
Even if you think Davis is Posey Lite, is that a more valuable player than a good No. 2 starter, which is Leiter’s projection? Would you prefer the certainty of a catcher who hits to the wider variance in outcomes for Rocker, who can show you No. 1 stuff and has a workhorse build, but lacks the command or consistency of a Leiter? Joey Bart was the No. 2 pick three years ago, with an inferior offensive profile and track record to Davis, striking out far more often. Maybe it’s time to reconsider the idea that the first pick has to be one of the Vandy boys, even if Pittsburgh is limiting its choices to college players. Davis is, at the very least, good enough to be in their decision set.
• On Saturday, Davis faced Virginia right-hander Mike Vasil, who would have been a first-round pick — possibly a top 15 overall pick — in 2018 had he not withdrawn his name from the draft to go to Virginia – a choice that I would never recommend any prospect make, since the worst thing that can happen to you in the draft is that (checks notes) you get drafted, and some team offers you money. Vasil’s road at UVA has been bumpy, and while he’s been good enough this year to be a pick in the top three rounds, I don’t think the $3-4 million he might have seen from high school is coming back. Vasil was 90-96 on Saturday, mostly pitching at 90-94, with a four-pitch mix that featured heavy usage of an 82-84 mph changeup, but Louisville hitters squared both pitches up too frequently. His best weapon might be the cutter he threw at 88-89, which could break some left-handers’ bats in pro ball, but the Virginia coaches didn’t call for it much. He threw five innings and gave up 12 hits with just one strikeout, only the second time in 2021 he hasn’t punched out at least four. His delivery works fine and his arm speed is good, but he has nothing to miss better bats and I can’t see him going on day one as is.
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• Louisville first baseman Alex Binelas, who played on a Wisconsin team with Jarred Kelenic in high school and came into the year as a possible back-end first-round pick, has struggled badly this year and is limited to first base or possibly DH, pushing him well down scouts’ pref lists. Binelas showed both sides of the coin in the two games I saw; he swung and missed through five straight fastball strikes from lefty Andrew Abbott on Friday, was caught looking on the sixth, and put the seventh fastball he saw somewhere deep over the right-field wall. He homered again on Saturday off a right-handed reliever, and it was louder and farther than the first one. He’s a mediocre defender at first, doesn’t show a great idea of the strike zone, and really didn’t like facing a lefty on Friday … but that’s grade-70 power, and he actually doesn’t strike out that often against right-handers (17 percent on the season, versus 28 percent against lefties), enough positives that someone ought to roll the dice on him in the third round if he’s still there.
• Griff McGarry made his first relief appearance of the year for Virginia on Saturday, and the right-hander was 96-97 with a very fast arm and a slider at 79 that got Davis to fly out … but he’s also walked 28 guys in 23 1/3 innings this year, most of that coming in seven starts for the Cavs. He’s draft-eligible, as is right-hander Zach Messinger, who was 92-93 with a change and curveball, nothing plus, but he’s 6-foot-6 and his arm works well enough that he could be drafted in rounds 6-10, as could McGarry with that stuff.
• Louisville lefty Michael Kirian started Friday night and had some success early with an 88-93 mph fastball up in the zone, but both his curve and change-up were grade-45 pitches — the curveball is slow and loopy, so left-handed batters tracked it too well. I’m not sure he’s more than a minor-league depth starter.
• Louisville freshman Alex Galvan made just his fourth appearance of the year, but he’s 6-6 with a decent arm action and a 92-93 mph fastball, enough to file his name away for the future.
• When I saw Virginia third baseman Zack Gelof two weeks ago, he was struggling to make routine throws across the diamond. Whatever was bothering him appears to be gone, as he made several very strong throws on routine and difficult plays. He’s still too focused on contact at the plate, rarely striking out but not doing damage. But if you feel good about him staying at third, you could bet on a change of approach and take him in the top five rounds.
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• On Tuesday, I saw Malvern Prep center fielder Lonnie White, a possible late first-round or compensation-round pick who is also committed to Penn State to play wide receiver. White has gotten bigger since the fall and slowed down a little, which raises concerns that he’ll end up in right field rather than in center. His swing is very consistent and should lead to future power, with real leverage and loft in his finish, which he’ll need to profile in a corner. He didn’t face great pitching the day I saw him — Malvern won via mercy rule — and may not be able to mollify concerns about his hit tool this spring given the competition.
(Photo of Davis: Ben McKeown / AP Photo)
