As part of my prospect rankings package, I’ve ranked all 30 major-league teams’ farm systems, with an explanation of why they’re in this order. You’ll get an even clearer picture of each individual team by reading the team reports, which include a ranking of each system’s top 20 prospects, that are rolling out this week and next, starting with the NL Central on Tuesday.
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Bear in mind that these rankings only consider players currently in the system and eligible for the rankings, meaning they have not yet lost rookie status. I consider all prospects in a system for the rankings, not just those on the top 100 ranking — there’s still value in prospects who don’t project to be stars, or even regulars, whether it’s for your own club or for trades. The increased number of teams scouting the complex leagues to look for players to acquire in trades only further justifies this philosophy for ranking systems – teams are telling us these prospects have value.
Top 100 prospects | Just-missed list
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Last year: No. 10
The Dodgers’ system is just ridiculous. They are hitting on every cylinder right now. They have depth and ceiling, pitching and position players, near-in prospects and long-term players. I don’t think any other organization can rival their consistent success in drafting, international scouting, player development and pro scouting right now, which is probably the last thing fans of the four other NL West teams want to hear. Every player in their top 10 was in broader consideration for my top 100 – I don’t make a “longlist,” like this was the Booker Prize or something, but if I did one with 200 or so names, the Dodgers’ entire top 10 would make it. The only nitpick I’d offer is that they only put one prospect in my top 40 because the rest of their high-ceiling guys, players who have a chance to be frequent All-Stars or top 10 in baseball at their positions, are higher-variance or just further away from the majors. They make up for it by having so many of those players that they should end up with multiple stars from their current roster of prospects even with typical attrition.
2. Seattle Mariners
Last year: No. 13
The Mariners have the stars. They were one of only two teams to put two players in my top 20, and their No. 3 prospect, right-hander George Kirby, has that sort of ceiling, just with more variance in his potential than the pitchers above him. They also have one of the more impressive collections of power arms anywhere in baseball. Just about every one of those players missed time due to injury in 2021, although it looks like they’re all going to be ready for minor-league spring training. The difference between the Mariners and the Dodgers is the depth beyond the top half-dozen guys, where the Dodgers have more prospects likely to grow into everyday or rotation roles, while the Mariners have a large collection of prospects who might be relievers or quality bench players but are less likely to be regulars. There’s still a lot of value in a system that looks like it’ll produce 15 to 20 big leaguers, though, and their top two guys both look like superstars.
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3. Arizona Diamondbacks
Last year: No. 5
A scout who covered Arizona’s system said it might not have a great top 10 but it has one of the best top 50s of any other team in baseball. I disagree on the first half, because the Diamondbacks have two potential star position players (both coming off shoulder surgery) and a large collection of potential mid-rotation or better starters, three of whom made my top 100. I agree on the second half, though, as their system is one of the deepest in baseball, especially in pitchers who project to some sort of major-league value. It should just get better this year, as they’ll draft second overall whenever the Rule 4 Draft takes place, and they’ll get Corbin Carroll, Jordan Lawlor and hopefully Connor Grammes back from injuries; and perhaps Kristian Robinson will return to the field, as well.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Last year: No. 1
The Rays just keep finding talent through all the channels — four of their top-10 prospects came in trade, one of whom, Curtis Mead, was identified by their scouts in the Gulf Coast League and came in a trade for a middle reliever. They’ve been drafting much more effectively the past three years, and their international pipeline has been among the best in the game since Wander Franco kicked things off for them. The only way the Rays will remain competitive at their current payroll level is by producing their own talent, and they continue to be one of the best in the game at doing so, whether it’s signing those players themselves or picking other teams’ pockets in trades.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Last year: No. 3
The Blue Jays have quietly become powerhouses on the international free-agency front, hitting repeatedly on big-dollar signees – current prospects Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo and Leo Jimenez, and of course Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – as well as smaller bonus guys like Gabriel Moreno, Sem Robberse and Otto Lopez. They’ve supplemented with some solid drafts, with their first pick from 2020, Austin Martin, since traded to Minnesota to land José Berríos. Their first two picks from 2021, Gunnar Hoglund, who’s coming off Tommy John surgery, and Ricky Tiedemann, who was throwing quite a bit harder in instructs, both look like they’ll be big risers for 2022, as well. There’s quite a bit of position player depth here – Cleveland might be the only team with more depth on the left side of its infield – with its next wave of pitching probably two years off.
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6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Last year: No. 16
The Pirates’ system never bottomed out, but it has improved in a big hurry in the last two years thanks to a series of trades and an epic haul in the 2021 draft, where they used the No. 1 pick to take the best college player in the class, Henry Davis, but saved enough on his bonus to draft two other first-round talents and sign them to over-slot deals. Four of their top 10 prospects came over in trades, three of them in the last two years. Their biggest deficiency as a system has been executing major changes in prospects they already have, whether it’s swing changes, delivery changes or adding pitches, something that has affected even now-graduated players like Mitch Keller (who still lacks a third pitch) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (who should be hitting for more power in games). The system is loaded with athletes who can play, rather than just pure tools guys or performance guys without upside.
7. Kansas City Royals
Last year: No. 15
We are not talking about the seismic change in Kansas City’s offensive approach in the minors last year. It went from an 8.3 percent walk rate from hitters on its four full-season affiliates in 2019 to a 10.9 percent walk rate at those four levels last year – a jump of nearly a third. It’s the result of a top-down decision to change how the organization teaches hitters to approach at-bats, and it worked wonders. It may have saved the careers of Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez, it took Bobby Witt Jr. to the next level as a prospect, and it elevated several second-tier prospects to give them a chance to be regulars. The system’s weakness is now on the pitching side, in part the result of graduating so many arms to the majors in the last two years – the college pitchers they took with their first four picks in 2018 all lost rookie status in that period – but it began to replenish with two high-upside high school arms in the 2021 class. That change on the hitting side was long overdue, but its effects were immediate and are going to show up on the major-league roster this year.
8. Cleveland Guardians
Last year: No. 2
Cleveland’s system was so overrun with prospects that it couldn’t protect all of its eligible and deserving players from the Rule 5 Draft this winter, which might make them popular targets for other teams if and when that draft takes place. The deep group of middle infielders the Guardians signed in 2017 is now approaching the majors, with Brayan Rocchio and Jose Tena making the top 100 along with corner outfielder George Valera, with several others who still have major-league promise behind them and, in some cases, left off the 40-man. Their draft results have been more scattered, as they’ve gone higher-risk in early rounds in search of higher rewards, especially with high school pitchers, hitting on Danny Espino and Triston McKenzie but missing at least as often. Their 2020 class has a chance to be extremely productive once everyone’s healthy, but the top two high school guys they took both missed substantial time due to injury last year. The big challenge now is finishing off the development of these high-end position players as they reach Double A and above, as they haven’t developed a homegrown regular hitter since José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor.
9. San Francisco Giants
Last year: No. 9
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The Giants have done an unbelievable job flipping this system on its head, moving away from lower-ceiling guys to better risk-reward calculations in both the draft and on the international side, led by their 2018 group that included Marco Luciano, Luis Matos and Jairo Pomares. The system improved enough that they could trade two top-20 prospects for Kris Bryant and not really miss a beat. We haven’t seen the changes they’ve executed at the major-league level trickle down to the minors yet, as they have a number of prospects who might benefit from swing alterations or the like to unlock more power or improve command.
10. Baltimore Orioles
Last year: No. 18
This is about as good as a system can get with no contributions from the international side and very little from the trade market. The Orioles’ top nine prospects all came through the draft, and they’re all very good, as the team has done well with first-round picks, spread some money around to go over slot later in the draft and already has one of its first big developmental success stories in Joey Ortiz. The lack of major-league talent to trade for prospects hasn’t helped, although the front office did very well in the Mychal Givens and Dylan Bundy deals, and the Orioles finally showed up in Latin America, handing out the first million-dollar bonuses in the team’s history in 2021 to two prospects who debuted in the DSL that summer. What’s in the system now remains heavily skewed towards position players, as that has been this front office’s strong preference in the draft, so once this core of hitters arrives the Orioles will need to go outside to fill out the rotation behind Grayson Rodriguez et al.
11. Texas Rangers
Last year: No. 24
I have to say I admire how Texas went about its business in the last nine months: It traded a bunch of players on expiring contracts for prospects, then turned around and spent a whole boatload of money to replace those major leaguers and then some. Now the system is reloaded and the major-league team is competitive, if not outright contending, with help on the way. It is surprising to see a Texas top 10 that lacks any international free agents the Rangers signed themselves – I don’t think that’s been the case since I started these rankings.
12. Detroit Tigers
Last year: No. 12
If I were just ranking top fives, the Tigers would be much closer to the beginning of this ranking with two guys in my top 10, a Just Missed player and their 2021 first-rounder, Jackson Jobe, a high school pitcher with upside but all the risk of a high school pitcher as well. The system thins out quickly, however. They have had less success beyond their first- and second-round picks than their peers, and their international side hasn’t produced a positive-WAR big leaguer since Eugenio Suárez, who debuted in 2014. They’ve also graduated a trio of top pitching prospects in the past year, which doesn’t help the farm system’s ranking but does help the major-league team, and I hope everyone realizes which of those two things is more important.
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13. St. Louis Cardinals
Last year: No. 11
The Cardinals’ system is surprisingly filled with high-ceiling guys, as the team has changed its approach in the draft in the past few years. They lost their first- and second-round picks in 2017. Then they returned the next year with what seems like a brand-new philosophy to aim high, which has worked so far with two of their four first-round picks (Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker), with a third, Zach Thompson, still showing potential but not results. They have a lot of depth in potential non-regulars – middle relievers, platoon guys, bench pieces – behind the seven or eight high-ceiling guys atop the system.
14. Miami Marlins
Last year: No. 4
The Marlins graduated or traded a lot of talent last year — with top prospect Jazz Chisholm, Lewin Díaz, Jesús Sanchez and Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers reaching the majors, and three more former high picks leaving town in deals for Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle this winter. That’s why the system took what is probably a temporary step back, with the injury to Sixto Sánchez and down year from 2019 first-rounder JJ Bleday not helping matters, either. Eury Perez’s breakout was great news for a team that had largely stayed out of international free agency during the past decade, as he was part of what was at the time the most significant class of international free agents in their history.
15. San Diego Padres
Last year: No. 7
The Padres had the best farm system in baseball for several years, but they’ve used much of that talent now to bolster the big club between promotions and a series of trades that added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Austin Nola and others. Their top 20 is more draft-heavy than it has been in some time, as their spending spree in the international market in 2016-17 has trickled out of the system through graduations (Adrian Morejon and Michel Baez), trades (Gabriel Arias, Jordy Barley, Michell Miliano, Luis Patiño, Tucupita Marcano and Roland Bolaños), or, uh, never-happenings (Luis Almanzar, who took home $4.05 million). They’ve continued to draft well, and they have perhaps the biggest wild-card among prospects, lefty MacKenzie Gore, still in their system.
16. Chicago Cubs
Last year: No. 26
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The Cubs placed just one prospect on the top 100, but they have a large group of guys who are just bubbling under, nearly all of whom were in the complex league last year but should spend 2022 in full-season ball. The selloff at last year’s trade deadline netted four of their top 10 prospects now, along with one more they added the previous winter and at least three other prospects who project to some major-league value. Their 2021 draft showed a different philosophy and looks to be their most productive since they were drafting in the single digits.
17. Atlanta
Last year: No. 6
Atlanta’s passel of trades at the deadline last year didn’t put much of a dent in its system, as the organization didn’t trade anyone from its top 10 and probably just one player who would have made its top 20. But the fallout from their violations of MLB rules in the international free-agent market has dragged the system down – they lost a second-round draft pick and were unable to participate meaningfully in international free agency for multiple years. There’s still a fair amount of pitching in the system, albeit nothing to compare to what they had three years ago, and enough potential up-the-middle regulars to keep this system around the midpoint in the rankings.
18. Minnesota Twins
Last year: No. 8
Farm systems change each year for two reasons: Teams add/let go of talent in the system, and the players in the system themselves improve or regress. The Twins’ system is the most likely of any team ranked in the bottom half to benefit from that second part because they have so many players who should be on the upswing and be more valuable in a year than they are now. They have a ton of players who need to get healthy and get on the field — highlighted by Royce Lewis — and a number of players who should see progress from working with the Twins’ player development department. But that doesn’t mean I could wishcast this into a top-half system just yet.
19. Cincinnati Reds
Last year: No. 17
The Reds boast one of the biggest risers in baseball last year in Elly de la Cruz, who is as physically gifted as any other player in the minors and went from nowhere to a top 50 ranking. They also had a strong draft class in 2021, helping restock a system that saw three of its top five players from last year graduate, one of whom, Jonathan India, only won the Rookie of the Year award (the other two being Jose Barrero and Tyler Stephenson). With de la Cruz, Hunter Greene and Jay Allen, they have a trio of extremely high-upside prospects atop the system to balance out some of their reduced depth.
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20. Boston Red Sox
Last year: No. 20
It certainly doesn’t hurt when your much-maligned first-rounder from 2020 goes all Tony Gwynn on the minors and you then land the best player in the 2021 draft class while picking fourth. It hurt a bit more to have two of the team’s top hitting prospects endure disappointing years that at least raised some doubts about their hit tools. There’s more pitching on the horizon than there’s been in this system for a long time – they haven’t drafted/signed and developed a major-league starter since Clay Buchholz, whom they drafted in 2005.
21. New York Mets
Last year: No. 19
The most top-heavy system in the minors has four guys on the top 100 and a pitcher who should return to the top 100 if he comes back successfully from Tommy John surgery. But a series of trades — some ill-advised — has badly depleted the system despite a decade of extremely productive drafts and some big hits on the international side. They traded away three of their first four picks from 2018, their two first-round picks from 2016, their second-round pick from 2019, and their first and third picks from 2020, plus two of their best international signings from that decade. It’s a miracle they’re not 30th.
22. New York Yankees
Last year: No. 14
The crown jewel of this system is shortstop Anthony Volpe, but there’s more pitching here than potential regulars on the position-player side. The Yankees have long been among the best at improving velocity, but it looks like there’s a solid group of potential fourth starter types – don’t scoff, those guys are worth a lot of money – on the way, along with a group of high-upside Latin American prospects who were all in Low A or below last year.
23. Los Angeles Angels
Last year: No. 23
The Angels’ all-pitching draft in 2021 might have seemed like a gimmick, but 1) they really needed pitching, and 2) they did quite well with that constraint, finding several guys after the 10th round who either impressed in their pro debuts or look like good bets on paper. That helps a system that has been struggling to recover after bottoming out in 2016, when the Angels had the weakest farm system I’ve seen since I started doing this for a living. There was some improvement in the interim, but it proved mostly illusory, with only Brandon Marsh panning out from the previous wave of prospects, although the jury is still out on Jo Adell. There’s huge risk in building your system around arms, but they’ve at least acquired a nicely mixed portfolio of upside guys and safer bets.
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24. Houston Astros
Last year: No. 25
The Astros are one of two teams to miss the top 100 completely, although Korey Lee made the “just missed” list. Losing two first-rounders and a second-rounder in penalties for the sign-stealing scandal only exacerbated the problems of several years of low draft positions and an overly conservative approach that deprived the system of upside. They continue to have success stories on the player development side, with shortstop Jeremy Pena the most notable of this year’s improvements.
25. Colorado Rockies
Last year: No. 21
The Rockies’ GM change was long overdue, although I’m sure their fans wouldn’t mind an ownership change as well. Their owner was, at least according to media reports, one of the major drivers of the movement to eliminate all short-season minor leagues, yet the Rockies like to draft and sign players who probably would have benefited from having that level this past year. They do still have a lot of upside within the system, but my outsider take is that they have had a lot of guys suffer from the lost reps of 2020 and the lack of an intermediate level between the complex and Low A.
26. Milwaukee Brewers
Last year: No. 28
The Brewers’ system had been on the skids for various reasons – promotions and trades made the team a contender, but its first-round track record through the 2010s was well below the median expectation for those picks. The Brewers’ only two first-round selections from the entire decade to post even 2 WAR in the majors have done so for other teams: Mitch Haniger and Trent Grisham. Their last two drafts look more promising already, and their 2019 international class, which focused almost entirely on Venezuelan players, is off to a strong start.
27. Washington Nationals
Last year: No. 30
The Nats were my 30th ranked system last year, so things are looking up, as they went from zero top 100 prospects to two. The rest of the story of 2021 for the Nats was injuries, though, as two of their top three pitching prospects got hurt, as did top outfield prospect Roismar Quintana. This is another club hit hard by the loss of short-season leagues, which would have especially benefited some of the international signees who would have spent 2021 in the (now-defunct) New York-Penn League.
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28. Philadelphia Phillies
Last year: No. 27
The Phillies did not earn having a farm system this bad. You get here because you won a bunch of games and made the playoffs a few times and maybe got to a World Series, great. You earned it. The Phillies didn’t do that. Their 82-win season in 2021 was their first winning season of any sort since 2011, their last playoff appearance. Their 2018 draft class is still in the net negative. All of their drafts since 2014, the Aaron Nola/Rhys Hoskins year, have produced 4.5 WAR in total. It’s a combination of bad picks and failed development, including players changed for the worse after getting into the system. They spent their last two first-round picks on high school pitchers, both of whom offer high upsides, but as I’ve written many times, it’s the highest-risk category without the reward to justify it over the long haul.
29. Oakland Athletics
Last year: No. 29
The A’s just haven’t had much success either in the draft or internationally for a while now, with some pretty notable misses. Since the extraordinary success of Matt Chapman in 2014, their most successful pick in the top five rounds is Sean Murphy at 4.4 WAR. (That includes Kyler Murray, who left the A’s at the altar after they picked him ninth overall in 2018.) They dropped $5.6 million on Lazaro Armenteros, Yerdel Vargas, Mike Sernandez and Marcos Brito in 2016-17, putting them in the penalty for the next two classes, and you didn’t realize that one of those names is actually from the video game “Fighting Baseball.” Their last two drafts yielded their two best prospects right now, and the 2021 class as a whole is their most exciting in some time. But if the major-league team is ending its competitive window, the A’s need to maximize their returns for the players they have to avoid the situation Mike Elias and company faced in Baltimore.
30. Chicago White Sox
Last year: No. 22
The White Sox, unlike some previous teams, did earn their position as the proud owners of the worst farm system in baseball: They won. They were a playoff team the last two years, winning 93 games in 2021, and they did it with the products of drafts, trades and development. Their shortstop and left fielder were their own first-round picks, and their center fielder was signed to a huge deal as an amateur free agent from Cuba right before the window closed to sign those players for fair market value. Their rotation had one of their own first-rounders, two prospects acquired in trades for veterans and a veteran acquired in a trade for two prospects. Their bullpen featured their 2020 first-round pick and a former first-rounder acquired in trade. They traded another first-rounder to get Craig Kimbrel, which didn’t work out, but good on them for trying. So, yes, White Sox fans, you didn’t have anyone on the top 100 this year nor anyone especially close, but you got a great big league team from having a great farm system not that long ago.
(Top photo of Corbin Carroll, Henry Davis and Diego Cartaya: Zachary Lucy / AP; Mike Janes, Tom Priddy / Four Seam Images)
