With the 2021 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft – we’re just going to go with “the draft,” for short – now in the books, here’s my look at each team’s draft class. I focus on the top ten rounds, since those are the picks that count towards each team’s bonus pool; players taken after the tenth round may be paid up to $125,000 without counting against the bonus pool, so the best prospects taken in rounds 11 through 20 rarely end up signing.
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The number in parentheses after each player’s name indicates the round in which he was taken; the letter A indicates that it was a supplemental pick between rounds, either for losing a free agent or from the competitive balance lottery. I do assume that all players taken in the top ten rounds will sign, although each year there are roughly two to five players who don’t for various reasons.
Finally, I don’t grade drafts; I think that whole idea is absurd. The best I can offer is to tell you that I think teams did well or not well based on what I know about the players available at those picks.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Shortstop Jordan Lawlar (round 1) was one of the names in contention to go first overall, or just to be tabbed as the best player in the draft class, so it’s a small coup for Arizona to get him at No. 6. He’s an extremely athletic, tooled-up shortstop who’s plus in all of the tools except for his hit tool; he has bat speed but has shown some swing and miss in high school. He’s already 19, which is a small mark against a high school hitter, although if he starts next year in Low A and has success that won’t be a concern any longer.
Shortstop Ryan Bliss (2) would have been a top 15-20 pick if he were taller, but at 5-foot-9 with a slight frame, there were enough concerns about his ability to make hard contact with wood that he was still here for the Diamondbacks in the second round. He rarely strikes out, runs plus, and fields well other than just an average arm, and he did hit 15 homers this year, one off the Auburn team lead. I see a future regular at second even if his arm moves him off short.
Catcher Adrian del Castillo (2A) from Miami was supposed to be a top-10 pick coming into the spring as a fringy defender who could really hit, but everything was worse than advertised — he hit .275/.380/.395, caught poorly, and showed a 35 arm. As a “guy who should have gone higher” pick, he makes sense, but this is an overhaul waiting to happen.
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High school right-hander Jacob Steinmetz (3) has an average fastball/curveball combination with good carry to the former, bringing projection in his body and an unpolished delivery that doesn’t get the most out of his current frame.
Right-hander Chad Patrick (4) is the first player ever drafted from Division II school Purdue University Northwest; he’s a senior who’s been up to 97, flashing a plus slider and average changeup, with a body and delivery that would work in a rotation. He hadn’t pitched like this before, and has picked up almost 10 mph since high school, but pitching for a D2 school that has never had a player drafted isn’t going to draw all the scouts to the yard.
North Carolina right fielder Caleb Roberts (5) doesn’t have great bat speed but his swing works and he showed patience and power for the Tar Heels this year. Arizona drafted him as a catcher, however, where he’s played some in the past, and which would give him far more upside. Luke Albright (6) hit 96 in an early-season outing against Mississippi State but didn’t hold the velocity, pitching more at 90 and sitting 92 with average secondary stuff.
Colorado Rockies
Benny Montgomery (1) just looks like a Rockies pick — a toolsy, athletic, lanky, tall high school outfielder who has some questions around his hit tool. In Montgomery’s case, it’s because he has a substantial hitch in his swing that he’ll have to reduce unless he finds some other way to compensate for it. He has power and speed, and a great outfielder’s frame. He’s a bit like their 2020 first-rounder Zac Veen, who is off to a strong start in pro ball, although Veen bats lefty and didn’t have this hitch.
LSU right-hander Jaden Hill (2) looked like a candidate to go 1-1 when the season started, and within a month, his season was over due to a torn elbow ligament. He has touched 99 with a plus changeup and improving slider, and he already is built like a big-league starter, listed at 6-4, 234. He’s also thrown 51 innings across three years (one pandemic-shortened) in college due to various elbow injuries. There’s risk here, but this is a no-brainer pick. He’ll be the Rockies’ best pitching prospect if he comes back healthy.
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Ohio right-hander Joe Rock (2A) was sitting 93-94 this spring with a 55 changeup and fringe-average slider; his arm is late relative to his landing, which may be what’s holding the third pitch back. He was academically ineligible in 2020, so his redshirt was not injury-related.
Indiana University right-hander McCade Brown (3) has premium stuff, with a fastball and curveball that both can at least flash plus, but can’t harness it, with 46 walks in 61 innings this year; his delivery isn’t bad, certainly not enough to explain the wildness, but there’s at least upside here. Catcher Hunter Goodman (4) became only the second University of Memphis hitter ever drafted in the top four rounds. He’s a bat-first catcher, power over hit, strong but also enough of a hacker that he’s not likely to hit for average, with below-average tools behind the plate.
NC State lefty Evan Justice (5) comes from a lower slot with some slinging action, with a fastball at 92-94 and a little slider that’s better because of the tough look lefties get against him. He’s a straight reliever. Robby Martin (8) was a star his freshman year at Florida State, with talk he’d be in the mix at 1-1 by this year, but that was his peak; he hit .260/.352/.451 this year with nearly twice as many strikeouts as walks, and he’s probably a left fielder, so he has to hit. It’s a great pick here just as a gamble that the Rockies can get him back to where he was two years ago. Cullen Kafka (9) is a sinker/slider guy who has been a starter for the last three years for Oregon, but it’s a reliever look, and I’d like to see the Rockies give him a trial in the bullpen soon, and maybe his stuff will undergo a metamorphosis in shorter outings.
Los Angeles Dodgers
High school lefty Maddux Bruns (1) has huge upside, with a fastball up to 98, a curveball that can show plus, and big spin rates on both. Last summer, he got hit hard at the Perfect Game National event to start the showcase season, and after that had trouble throwing strikes. He was better this spring, but still inconsistent. It is elite stuff from the left side, and he might have gone in the top 10 if he had a history of throwing strikes. I don’t love taking high school pitchers in the first round, but the Dodgers had the round’s final pick, and they can afford to take risks that other teams can’t.
Right-hander Peter Heubeck (3) has some projection left, although his frame is a little on the slight side, and he’s already 90-93 with an average curveball. Scouts who liked him saw advanced command and feel to pitch for an 18-year-old, but other scouts in the Mid-Atlantic questioned the projectability, which I can see given his frame. UCLA right-hander Nick Nastrini (4) has had real control trouble, throwing just 55 percent of his pitches for strikes this spring and walking a quarter of the batters he faced. He’s 94-98 with a power breaking ball, and the fastball misses bats when it’s near the zone. He was showing signs late in the spring that he was figuring out some semblance of command too. In the fourth round it’s a sensible gamble given the first-round stuff. I just won’t sugarcoat that walk rate.
They went heavy on seniors after that, and didn’t take any position players at all until the 16th round. UConn right-hander Ben Casparius (5) struck out a ton of guys this year thanks to a short arm action that he repeats well and that hides the ball from hitters, but it’s mostly 88-91 with average-ish secondary stuff. Right-hander Emmet Sheehan (6), a Boston College junior, has an even shorter arm action, and also pretty vanilla stuff, although he did touch 95 this year while pitching more at 90-92. Right-handed reliever Ryan Sublette (7) just sounds like a way to save money.
San Diego Padres
Maryland high school shortstop Jackson Merrill (1) earns some praise for his bat speed and baseball IQ, although he’s likely to move off shortstop in pro ball and the swing doesn’t always work. I thought he was more of a second-/third-round talent. Outfielder James Wood (2) has huge power but struggled to hit any kind of pitching this spring, and often looked disinterested while playing. He had a chance to go in the top half of the first round had he performed, especially since Brady House went 11th overall, but scouts were underwhelmed by him on and off the field. Lefty Robert Gasser (2A) bounced back from an 11.05 ERA in the truncated 2020 season to be Houston’s Friday night starter this year, working with above-average control of a solid three-pitch mix and some deception from his delivery and slightly lower slot. Arkansas closer Kevin Kopps (3) is already 24 and dominated the SEC this year with one pitch, throwing his slider 56 percent of the time. I’d consider starting him right in Double A and calling him up in September, although he was worked very hard by the Razorbacks in the postseason and might be fatigued. West Virginia right-hander Jackson Wolf (4) is 6’7″ and still has some room to add muscle; he’s got nothing plus now but has feel and command and some deception thanks to his height. Tennessee second baseman Max Ferguson (5) is a plus runner with some power, but struck out way too often this spring, especially off sliders. They took two late fliers on possibly unsignable high school pitchers, diminutive lefty Gage Jump (18) and power right-hander Chase Burns (20). Adding either one would really change the complexion of this draft class, and make it more of a typical Padres upside draft than what we got here.
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San Francisco Giants
The Giants went heavy on pitching, going with arms for their first nine picks in the draft. They led off with College World Series hero Will Bednar (1), a right-hander with a plus slider who was worked hard by Mississippi State but has a legit out pitch and enough fastball to go out as a starter now. There’s some reliever risk there, but he did work primarily off his fastball this year even with the temptation to go to that slider because college hitters couldn’t hit it. Fordham lefty Matt Mikulski (2) has been up to 97 with a four-pitch (or three-and-a-half pitch) mix and good size for a starter. There’s some effort to the delivery but he definitely goes out in the rotation and has more ceiling than Bednar offers.
Lehigh right-hander Mason Black (3) took a step back early this spring but was still frequently up to 95 with a downward-breaking slider that’s solid average when he hits it. It’s a starter delivery with about 40 command right now, enough to send him out in a rotation and see where it goes. Eric Silva (4) bumped up to 93-95 this spring, showing a four-pitch mix, although he’s a 6-foot right-hander and some scouts in the area question whether he can start. Yale left-hander Rohan Handa (5) was the pop-up guy of the summer, as the second-rate academic institution he attended did not offer baseball this spring (the Ivy League canceled all spring sports), so he has been pitching for the NECBL’s Mystic Schooners. He’s been 87-93 with a short slider, working with a mechanical delivery that seems to hide the ball from hitters.
Seth Lonsway (6) was eligible last year but went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore; he’s a 22-year-old junior now, still flashing a plus curveball and fastball up to 93 but with below-average control. He struck out a third of the batters he faced this spring, but walked 14.4 percent of them. Maine right-hander Nick Sinacola (7) struck out 44 percent of the batters he faced this spring, but he did it by relying primarily on his slider, even as a starter, with a fringy fastball and high-effort delivery. Cal right-hander Ian Villers (8) worked primarily as a reliever this spring, with a fringe-average fastball but two above-average weapons in his slider and changeup.
(Top photo of Jordan Lawlar: Michael Ainsworth / Associated Press)
