The Padres landed a good No. 2 starter in Blake Snell on Sunday, and then added a good No. 1 starter — I’d argue the best starter in the National League in 2020 — on Monday in Yu Darvish. Where Snell cost some very significant prospects, including the second-best prospect in San Diego’s system, Darvish comes mostly as a salary dump, with the Cubs getting some high-upside teenage prospects but nowhere near enough for a pitcher of Darvish’s caliber with three years left on his contract.
Advertisement
Darvish was outstanding in 2020, and the main reason was his increased use of his cutter and consequent decrease in the use of his four-seamer, which hitters enjoyed hitting rather far in 2019. Statcast has Darvish using his cutter 44 percent of the time in 2020, and hitters swung and missed at nearly one in six of them. It’s effective against left-handed and right-handed hitters, and paired with his slider gives him two true out pitches. He also has a solid splitter that he seldom uses, often out of the zone but good for a chase pitch against lefties in lieu of the slider.
The second reason he was so good in 2020 was the simplest one: He threw more strikes. Nearly 70 percent of the pitches he threw went for strikes, resulting in a career-low walk rate (4.7 percent) by a huge margin. He misses bats, he throws strikes, and by deprecating the four-seamer he keeps the ball in the park. That’s more or less the description of an ace, and when Darvish is healthy, he can clearly be one. He missed most of 2018 because of elbow and triceps injuries, but he made 31 starts in 2017 and 2019 and all 12 starts in 2020. I’m fine with a bet on his being healthy enough in the next three years, especially in 2021, to justify the expense in money and prospects to acquire him. It’s probably a two-win upgrade for the Padres on the low end, and four or more wins if Darvish carries all of his progress in 2020 over into a full season. The Padres also get Victor Caratini, a useful utility player who can serve as a backup catcher and play other positions, but who’s probably not worth much more than replacement level beyond that versatility.
The Cubs just didn’t get enough here for Darvish, and it’s puzzling given how good their club is on paper that they’d sell their top starter just to clear cash, getting only one player in return who will help the club in 2021. That player is Zach Davies, whom Darvish will replace in San Diego’s rotation, and who will take on some of the innings Darvish would have thrown. Davies just had his best season in 2020, but he’s probably a 2-3 WAR starter in 2021, and he’s a free agent after 2021. He’s a fine mid-rotation starter, but the Cubs probably just gave up two to three more wins in production by downgrading from Darvish to Davies — although they saved a large part of the $59 million still due on his contract in the process.
They also received four teenage prospects, all of whom have upside but are far enough away that they might not break camp with full-season clubs in 2021. Reginald Preciado is a switch-hitting shortstop signed for $1.3 million out of Panama in July 2019, with bat control but not strength and the potential to be a plus defender at shortstop with a plus arm. Yeison Santana is another shortstop, although he’s more likely to move to second base in the long term, with a strong talent for getting the bat to the ball, getting on base and hitting for some power as an 18-year-old in the Arizona Rookie League in 2019. He swings hard, and his stance is wide open, but he has made it work so far with a strikeout rate well below the AZL’s median last year. He would have been one to watch in the short-season Northwest League in 2020, with a chance to finish in full-season ball, had we had a minor-league season.
Advertisement
Owen Caissie was the Padres’ second-round pick in 2020, meaning they’ve now traded the players they selected with their second- and third-round picks, although they had a supplemental pick before the second round as well. Caissie didn’t turn 18 until a few weeks after the draft; the Canadian outfielder has huge left-handed power despite an unorthodox swing that sees him open his hips early but generates a ton of bat speed. He has a plus arm and will probably end up in right field rather than staying in center. Outfielder Ismael Mena signed at the same time as Preciado and also hasn’t made his pro debut yet; he has a very projectable body with the potential for plus power, but has a very long swing from a deep hand load. I’d like to see him hit some real pitching before betting on him getting to that power.
It’s just not enough for a pitcher who should have won the NL Cy Young Award in the truncated 2020 season, and who was worth 3.5 WAR in 2019, and whose change in approach this past year gives reason to believe he can hold at least most of this new level of performance even as he enters his age-34 season. Why the Cubs are operating on a shoestring is beyond me, but I can’t believe this was a baseball operations decision. It was likely forced by ownership, even though the Cubs were a playoff team this past season and had a very good chance to be a playoff team in 2021, even with their offensive flaws. This move makes them less expensive but not better now, and not better for several more years. What a swift, shocking fall for a team that less than five years ago seemed primed to compete for not just one but multiple championships.
(Photo of Darvish: Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)
