The annual MLB First-Year Player Draft infuses a huge amount of talent into farm systems across baseball, but for some teams, mostly those drafting near the top, it also brings them their new top prospects. In advance of my midseason update of the top 50 prospects in baseball, here’s a look at which teams just drafted their new No. 1 prospects, ordered by where those teams selected in last week’s draft.
Advertisement
Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C (drafted 1st overall)
This was a relatively easy call with the Pirates’ previous No. 1 prospect, Ke’Bryan Hayes, graduating from prospect status last week as he crossed the 130 at-bat threshold in the big leagues. Davis was the No. 2 prospect on my draft board this year, the top college guy and just a shade behind the No. 1 prospect, Marcelo Mayer. Davis is a catcher with a plus arm, power and exceptional bat control.
The Pirates’ next-best prospect already in the system is right-hander Quinn Priester, No. 73 coming into the season, showing the same stuff this season as he did last fall in Instructional League but not quite dominating High A enough to surpass what Davis, a college product who might be less than two years from the majors, can offer.
Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP (drafted 2nd)
Leiter was the No. 1 prospect in the draft earlier this spring before he had a couple of bad starts followed by an unscheduled week off that scared a few teams at the top of the draft. The Rangers were not deterred, obviously, as they took Leiter with the second pick.
The Rangers’ No. 1 prospect coming into the year, Leody Taveras, has lost his rookie status, but he also didn’t hit a lick in the majors and isn’t hitting well in Triple A, although he’s showing good secondary skills and still playing great defense. Josh Jung, their No. 2 prospect and first pick in 2019, got off to a late start this year due to injury but is playing at his expected level in Double A. I have Leiter as their new No. 1 and right-hander Cole Winn, who is dealing in Double A at age 21 with at least mid-rotation stuff, as their No. 2, ahead of Jung.
Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS (drafted 4th)
Center fielder Jarren Duran is in the majors now, but even if he was in Triple A, I’d still put Mayer over him given Duran’s propensity to strike out and Mayer’s greater overall upside, even given the latter’s distance from the majors. Duran might have star upside, given his power and his position, but I don’t think he has Mayer’s all-around potential as a hitter for average and power as well as premium defense at one of the most critical positions on the field (shortstop).
Advertisement
Were it not for Mayer, Boston’s best prospect now might be resurgent left-hander Jay Groome, who has come back from two lost years after Tommy John surgery and a tough start to 2021 to strike out 53 in 36 1/3 innings since the start of June with 14 walks.
Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS (drafted 16th)
The Marlins’ No. 1 prospect coming into the year, right-hander Edward Cabrera, started the season on the IL with biceps tendinitis, although he has been back for six weeks and was just promoted to Triple A last week. If I updated my top-100 prospects list right now (I’ll do a top 50 later this week, but the offseason top 100 involves a lot more research), the Marlins might have five on the list, and possibly even six: Watson, Cabrera, Max Meyer, Jake Eder, JJ Bleday and perhaps Joe Mack, with Sixto Sánchez likely off the list after shoulder surgery.
Cabrera is still an elite prospect, but the missed time underscores the risk of any pitching prospect, while Watson has superstar upside and was easily a top-10 prospect in the draft class. The Marlins’ system hasn’t looked this good at any point in the franchise’s history.
Almost, but not quite
Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS (drafted 6th)
I’ll file this one under “almost.” If Corbin Carroll were healthy, he’d unequivocally be Arizona’s top prospect. I’m hopeful he’ll still be the same guy whenever he returns to the field, but I’d be guilty of excessive optimism if I ignored how Carroll is going to lose almost two full seasons of at-bats between the pandemic year and the shoulder surgery he had this season.
Carroll is less than two years older than Lawlar, though, and has at least appeared in High A; if Carroll can come back for winter ball, he might still see Double A next year. He’s also a far more advanced hitter than Lawlar is right now, even considering their relative ages, and I think his combination of floor and ceiling beats Lawlar’s, given the latter’s questions around his present hit tool.
(Photo of Jake Leiter: Cal Sport Media / Associated Press)
