Even without the expanded playoffs, we’d have a cornucopia of young stars still playing in October, reflecting the trend in the sport for players to get to stardom faster than they have in decades — and for teams to at least be willing to consider avoiding service-time games to let the kids play. That’s why I’ve brought back an old feature of mine, the top players under aged 25 on postseason rosters, but made it longer than ever before. This time around, we have more than enough players to include, so many that I left several worthy names off. The expansion of the playoffs this year just makes this list even stronger.
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I’ve ranked players here based on what I see as their present and long-term values, only giving a sliver of consideration to how productive I think they’ll be in October, since the latter is so hard to predict. Instead of focusing on that latter point, I’ve discussed what their roles and values might be in the postseason, such as weaknesses opponents might exploit or ways their teams might deploy them to maximize their chances of winning.
All ages are seasonal ages (player age as of July 1, 2020).
1. Fernando Tatis Jr., 21, San Diego (3.0 fWAR)
Tatis was the best player in the NL for the first half of this season, and should still end up in the top 3 in MVP voting even if he doesn’t take the whole thing (I’d personally have him second, behind Freddie Freeman, if I had that ballot). I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say the Padres’ postseason hopes ride more on his shoulders than those of any other single player, although he’s not even the only under-25 player of note on their roster. He did slump in September, though, struggling badly against breaking stuff even in the zone, after handling those pitches well enough in July and August. That’s probably how we’ll see teams pitch him in October, and points to the adjustment he has to make to become the Padres’ best offensive threat again.
2. Ronald Acuña, Jr., 22, Atlanta (2.4 fWAR)
Acuña missed two weeks in August with a wrist injury that’s still bothering him somewhat, but when he played he might have been the best player in the NL on a game-for-game basis. Atlanta isn’t depending on his bat the way San Diego depends on Tatis, but he’s their second-best hitter and did show more propensity to swing-and-miss this year than he had before.
3. Trent Grisham, 23, San Diego (2.3 fWAR)
The Padres acquired Grisham from Milwaukee this winter in a four-player deal that also brought over Zach Davies (1.3 fWAR in 12 starts) for Luis Urías and Eric Lauer, who were both just under replacement level in 2020, so I’d say that worked out rather well for San Diego. (Maybe employing more scouts is a good thing after all?) Grisham showed great patience and power for the second year in a row, and was a shockingly competent defender in center field, despite lacking great speed.
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4. Jack Flaherty, 24, St. Louis (0.6 fWAR)
Flaherty was a top ten starter in the NL last year, but one disaster start this year (9 ER in 3 IP on Sept. 15) pushed his ERA for the year to 4.91; it was 3.13 without it. In a full season, that one start wouldn’t weigh so heavily on his numbers, but this season it turned his bWAR negative all by itself. Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson, and Kwang Hyun Kim all had lower ERAs this year, but Flaherty is their best starter, and it’s hard to see the Cardinals advancing deep into October without him pitching up to his abilities.
5. Ian Anderson, 22, Atlanta (1.1 fWAR)
Atlanta cruised to the division title this year despite having just one pitcher make more than 10 starts for them and no pitcher qualify for the ERA title (Max Fried fell four innings short). Anderson debuted on Aug. 26 and ended up the second-best starter on Atlanta’s staff this year, thanks in large part to a power changeup that left- and right-handed hitters couldn’t handle. Nothing is easy in October, but Atlanta’s chances to advance may lean heavily on Anderson’s right arm.
6. Eloy Jiménez, 23, Chicago White Sox (1.7 fWAR)
The abbreviated season meant a lot of player breakouts happened quietly, like Jiménez’s surge to .296/.332/.559, a jump in his wRC+ from 116 last year to 141 this year; he’s a threat to hit 40 homers if we get a full season in 2021. He’s not the most famous under-25 guy in the White Sox’ lineup, but he’s the one on whose bat I’d bet the most for this postseason.
7. Sixto Sánchez, 21, Miami (0.9 fWAR)
Sánchez was effective through five starts, with one truly dominant outing against the Rays, and then struggled in his second time facing the Nats and Atlanta – which could just be noise, but might be a sign that hitters were starting to adjust to him. Miami faces the Cubs, whose hitters haven’t seen him yet, in the first round, but could see Atlanta in the Division Series if they advance.
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8. Kyle Tucker, 23, Houston (1.6 fWAR)
File this one under “quiet breakouts” along with Jiménez, as Tucker cut his strikeout rate by a quarter and led the AL in triples. He crushed right-handed pitching, boosting his line entirely at their expense, but was still a cipher against lefties (.260 OBP) and might be a better candidate for a platoon role in October.
9. Luis Robert, 22, Chicago White Sox (1.5 fWAR)
Robert seemed like the obvious Rookie of the Year pick coming into the season, since he had a clear full-time job, plus defense in center, and legit power. Even as I picked him to win that honor, though, I pointed out that he had trouble with velocity inside, and that’s where he struggled this year, hitting .214/.314/.330 off fastballs and whiffing on 31 percent of fastballs on the inner third of the zone. He can still make a huge impact on a playoff game with his defense, speed, and the power he shows when he can get his arms extended, but I expect to see the A’s try to pound him inside with fastballs.
10. Cody Bellinger, 24, Los Angeles Dodgers (1.2 fWAR)
The 2019 NL MVP did not follow it up with a strong season in 2020, losing 60 points of BABIP and reverting to his previous form of failing to hit left-handed pitching, which could be just a small-sample fluke (he only had 83 PA versus LHP this year) or could mean his production last year was the outlier. He still hit right-handers for power and got on base at a .350 clip against them, and I’d bet on him mashing again in October when there’s a righty on the mound.
11. Bo Bichette, 22, Toronto (0.8 fWAR)
Bichette’s absence for half the season nearly cost the Jays a playoff spot. He wasn’t quite the same hitter after his stint on the injured list for a sprained knee, but still was one of their best players in 2020 and is easily their best hitter when healthy. Facing better quality pitching in the playoffs — the Jays played a third of their games this year against the Orioles and the Red Sox — they’ll be even more reliant on Bichette to produce.
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12. Willy Adames, 24, Tampa Bay (1.4 fWAR)
Adames had a weird year in 2020, with a huge jump in his strikeout rate from 26.2 percent to 36.1 percent — the latter the third-highest rate among qualifiers in MLB — but a gain of 58 points of isolated power. He was on pace for a 45 double/24 homer season over 600 PA, which would at least have earned him a lot more attention, but it’s also hard to imagine that low contact rate would have held up over a larger sample.
13. Julio Urías, 23, Los Angeles Dodgers (1.2 fWAR)
Urías made 10 starts in 2020, the most he’d made in the majors since he made 15 starts as a 19-year-old in 2016, before serious shoulder surgery that has ended the careers of most pitchers who’ve undergone it. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats now, but gets a lot of air outs, with a top-5 flyball rate and top-15 infield fly rate in the majors this year, and coupled with plus control, he’s been able to be an above-average starter even averaging less than a strikeout an inning.
14. Jesús Luzardo, 22, Oakland (0.8 fWAR/9 starts, 12 G)
The A’s came into the season with two rookie starters penciled into their rotation, but A.J. Puk missed the year with a shoulder injury and Luzardo ended up twice as important. He was solid, showing better stuff than results, getting left- and right-handed hitters out but having trouble going through lineups multiple times. He looks like he’s going to be their third starter in the playoffs, but the A’s might want to have someone ready to relieve him once he gets to the second time through the order.
15. Gleyber Torres, 23, New York Yankees (0.2 fWAR/3.6 last year)
Torres’ year was a disaster — he was barely above replacement-level by FanGraphs and just below it on Baseball-Reference — although he was better in September after a leg injury sent him to the injured list for two weeks in August. He was brutal against breaking stuff this season, without a single extra-base hit on a slider or curveball, so of course he saw more of them as teams caught on. I was shocked he hit 38 homers in 2019, but I’m not buying into this low-power version either, and figure the real Torres is somewhere in the 25-30 homer range.
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16. Dustin May, 22, Los Angeles Dodgers (0.4 fWAR)
May didn’t miss anywhere near as many bats as I would have expected given how good his pure stuff is, but hitters sort of made up for it by hitting so many of his pitches on the ground. He’s not going to strand 90 percent of the runners he allows going forward, though, and for a groundball guy he was homer-prone, two things to watch for in the playoffs that might lead to results that differ from the sub-3.00 ERA he posted this season.
17. Ozzie Albies, 23, Atlanta (0.6 fWAR/29 games)
Albies reverted to his 2018 form of power with a low OBP, drawing only 5 walks in 124 PA, still valuable for a middle infielder but not the player he was a year ago. It might be more glaring in another lineup, but Atlanta led the NL in OBP and walks this year, so they can more easily carry a hitter of Albies’ profile.
18. Triston McKenzie, 22, Cleveland (0.6 fWAR)
Cleveland chose not to include McKenzie in their quarterfinal series rotation, but he’s certainly good enough to start a playoff game, with exceptional command for his age and a 33 percent strikeout rate in six starts and two relief appearances this year.
19. Nate Pearson, 23, Toronto (-0.2 fWAR)
Pearson’s season was interrupted by injury, and he was wilder than expected — possibly because his elbow didn’t feel right — but few major-league starters can match his pure stuff. If he works in relief this month, which seems likely since he only made a single relief appearance after his return from the IL, he could be a dominant late-game option for the Jays, up to 102 mph with three viable offspeed pitches.
20. Vlad Guerrero Jr., 21, Toronto (0.2 fWAR)
Guerrero moved from third to first, but he’s heading for the DH spot, which certainly hurts his value — he’s really bad at first, and his body won’t allow him to play anywhere else. He makes a lot of hard contact, and hit for some more game power this year, but had the tenth-highest groundball rate of any qualifying hitter this year, which is especially bad if you can’t run. He just has too much natural feel to hit to give up on his bat when he’s just 21 years old, but a full-time DH really has to mash, and he’s not there yet.
Honorable mentions: Deivi García, New York Yankees; Chris Paddack, San Diego; Luis Arraez, Minnesota; James Karinchak, Cleveland; Cristian Javier, Houston.
(Top photo: Cody Glenn / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
