Klawchat 8/13/20.

My latest post for The Athletic subscribers looks at the difficult demotion calculus teams face with young players now, as well as notes on Spencer Howard, Ryan Castellani, and Luis Basabe.

Keith Law: Klawchat. Breathing life into your nightmare.

Heather: Do you think there will be HS/College baseball in the spring?  It would be just like the Red Sox to finally get a top three pick, and then not have anyone for their scouts to watch.
Keith Law: At this point, no, I do not. That could change with the results of the election, and/or a fresh surge in cases in the northern hemisphere as the weather turns cold. (Wasn’t the heat supposed to shut the virus down? How’d that work out?) But we’re not prepared for what we really need right now, another 4-6 week lockdown.

Mark: Just finished with Empire Falls from your recommendation and loved it. If I recall ,you proceeded to read all of his books after that one.I;’m going away on vacation, what might be a strong second choice by Russo?
Keith Law: Nobody’s Fool is his second-best book; Straight Man is his funniest.

Joe: Nats promoted Seth Romero.  Think he is ready for the bigs?
Keith Law: On the mound? Changeup was always big-league quality, probably a 70. Control is iffy. Off the field is another matter.

Ben (MN): Does your love of coffee spread to espresso? If so, any espresso recommendations? I am just starting to get into espresso in the mornings instead of coffee because the acid in an entire cup coffee is doing a number on my stomach as I get older. So far the only “good” brand I know is Intelligentsia. I’m starting to explore local coffee shops in the Twin Cities but many don’t have their own espressos.
Keith Law: Dogwood’s Neon blend is a great, workhorse espresso bean. They’re local to you. And yes, I love espresso, and it is definitely easier on my stomach.

Jones: I’m surprised nobody’s picked up Folty since his DFA.  Any insight?
Keith Law: He was down 2+ mph.

Bob: Important pizza question. I’m on the east coast and will probably never be in AZ to eat Pizzeria Bianco right out of the oven. I just noticed one of those food delivery services offers to ship 4 pies for a pretty hefty price of $135. I’m willing to bite the bullet on the price, but will the pies be anywhere close to restaurant quality so that I can say I’ve actually tried Pizzeria Bianco? Never settle for less than fresh or accept this is the best I can do?
Keith Law: If you can afford it, try it. It won’t be as good as fresh, but you’ll still get the fresh ingredients and the high quality of workmanship that goes into it. But I’d also encourage you to look in your city for a Neapolitan-style pizzeria you could support.

Joe: As a fan, it seems like Deivi Garcia has been passed over as a rotation piece this year in favor of Clarke Schmidt even though he has actually pitched at AAA and is already on the 40 man.  Can you see Garcia helping the Yankees at all this year?
Keith Law: Yes, maybe in a long relief role. I don’t think they trust his command or his fastball’s ability to keep missing bats.
Keith Law: I like him a bit more than they do internally.

Nate: Watched Vlade Guerrero Jr. over the weekend against the Red Sox.  I guess he gets his metabolism from his mom’s side of the family.   He’s gotta be three hundred pounds.  He won’t be in the league in five years at this rate, right?
Keith Law: He’s big, for sure, and that’s why I’ve been saying for almost two years he will end up at DH. You can be heavy and still be a very good hitter, and it’s also not unlikely that at some point he’ll realize he has to get himself in better shape.

Kyle KS: In your opinion what is better for almost ready or MLB ready prospects, to be at an alternate site getting some sort of consistent reps or being at the MLB level but not playing frequently?  I’m thinking of Knizner and Carlson on the Cardinals when they were actually playing.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t call up Carlson unless he was going to play regularly. Knizner I could see using part-time, because there’s always work for other catchers to do – he could help in the bullpen, for example, and learn to catch better stuff & work with pitchers there.

Guest: OK, at what point (if any) does MLB look at the Cardinals situation and say that there is no way they can qualify for the post season due to the lack of games they can play.  

Do you think they privately have a hard number minimum?
Keith Law: I don’t know and I haven’t heard anything at all about this.

JJ: Was Andrew Benintendi always overrated?  I’ve been hearing for three years that he’s on the verge of stardom, but all I see is a league average player, who hasn’t improved at all since he first came up.
Keith Law: He hasn’t improved since he came up, but I don’t think he was overrated. Everyone, myself included, assumed he’d continue to adjust, and he hasn’t.

James: Can Trent Grisham be a dude? His underlying stats look really encouraging.
Keith Law: Yes.

Gary: Hey Keith- have you gotten to watch any Andres Gimenez? Man is he fun to watch. Glove looks like a 7
Keith Law: Yes. Not a 70 defender.

Guest: Who is hurt more with lack of a minor league season: low level prospects or triple a guys?
Keith Law: Low level prospects. They don’t get the year of repetitions that could lead to significant improvements and accelerate their ascents to the majors. It’s quite possible some of these guys will start 2021 no better off than they were at the start of 2020.

Brian: Is Detroit really gonna manipulate Mize’s service time in a year when they could legitimately make the playoffs and the back end of the rotation has been positively dreadful?
Keith Law: Seems like it.
Keith Law: They should have Mize, Skubal, and Manning up now, replacing Boyd, Nova, and Alexander. They’d probably be better off; they’d certainly be more interesting.

Jason: What is Luis Urias’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Above average regular at 2b.

Kevin: What position does Austin Martin play for the Blue Jays?
Keith Law: They’re going to try him at SS, I think, but I would bet on 3B in the long term.

Andrew: Does Realmuto break Posey’s record catcher deal?
Keith Law: He should.

TC: Gimenez off to a nice start for the Mets, and his defense definitely plays. His bat’s always been the question mark. Is there something you’ve seen in his at-bats so far that accounts for the small sample size success but could be a good sign for the future?
Keith Law: No, he’s been Madrigal-like, it’s all batting average, below-average power, doesn’t walk or even seem to work the count that much.

James: I think your scouting series is so popular because we can actually watch what you’re seeing.
Keith Law: I’m just glad you guys are enjoying it. I was certainly concerned about providing enough value to subscribers in a year without the minors.

Zach: The Daniel Bard story out of CO is pretty darn cool. Did you ever scout or watch him as a young player? (Also, amazing how much money the Rockies spent on bullpen help and this guy may wind up being their stopper.)
Keith Law: Yes, saw him both summers he was an amateur, with Team USA and on the Cape. Saw him hold mid-90s up to 98 with life as a starter, secondaries were always inconsistent, arm slot was kind of a problem. I believe I wrote him up as a potential starter, though, because the velocity was so easy and he was supposed to be a smart kid. Who knows what really went awry – was it just Lancaster? Was it the arm action? Something we don’t know about? – but I will say, in hindsight, he had a long way to go to get to three legit pitches and enough stuff to get LHB out to become a starter.

Jack: Any thoughts on the Laureano/Cintron incident? Were the suspensions right?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. They’re both idiots for what they did. There’s a fucking pandemic going on, you dingbats.

Kevin: Is there an early indication on the baseball being used? Happy fun ball or scaled back?
Keith Law: Rob Arthur has written that it’s less happy-fun than last year’s.

JT: Trump is intentionally murdering the post office to ruin mail in voting and circumvent democracy. Whither the NRA and the defense from tyranny?
Keith Law: He and his cronies are explicitly talking about reducing voting rights, but that’s fine, because it’s the voting rights of brown people.

Michael: The top of the 2016 draft was terrible, but after round 1 you had Dustin May, Pete Alonso, Bo Bichette, Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and more. How are MLB teams so bad at this crucial part of building a team?
Keith Law: That’s not really fair. Alonso looked quite different physically and didn’t bring all that huge power to games. Bichette was a first-round talent, and some teams saw him that way, but he tried to deter some teams from drafting him so he could sign with an organization he liked (Toronto being one). Bieber had a 45 fastball. May had athleticism and a great arm but some head-whack and no real delivery consistency. You cherrypicked, with hindsight, five guys from rounds 2 and beyond. That’s five successes out of, what, 500+ guys just taken in rounds 2 through 10?

Danny: I’m a Yankees fan and just saw Touki pitch this week for the first time- he’s fun as hell to watch. Have I missed out? his pitches have great movement and he’s really athletic on the mound
Keith Law: I still really like his future as a starter. Three potentially plus pitches, great athlete, still struggling a bit with consistency in the delivery, and I feel like he defaults a bit to power rather than location/setting up hitters.

Zach: Do you think Ryan McMahon will make enough contact to be an above-average regular?
Keith Law: I do.

jimmyb: At what point do the Angels get concerned about Adell? His defense (even on the wall catch yesterday) has been bad. And he looks sort of lost at the plate. Is it just about adjustments at this point?
Keith Law: Small sample but my impression is that he’s overmatched at the plate and not ready yet.

CG: It really seems like people get a kick out position players pitching (like Gyorko for the Brewers last night).  It seems more prudent this season than any other season, with the compressed schedule.  Do you enjoy it as well?
Keith Law: I enjoy it but it becomes less fun the more common it is.

Ben: There a lot of talk in Tigerland these days about wishing Boyd was dealt (before his current downturn started in the 2nd half) at last years deadline. My question to you is, do you know what level of prospects (if there actually was interest) were actually being offered then? If it was similar to the Greinke package, with all the financial negatives, I’d say Avila was right to sit. Do you think the Tigers could have gotten a better deal then the Greinke deal last summer for Boyd?
Keith Law: I don’t know, but I don’t blame Avila for not foreseeing Boyd turning into a pumpkin.

Guest: Why not push the end of the season a week or so to allow teams to complete their seasons?  They could then get a playoff bubble in one or two cities and make sure that completes to get all their money.
Keith Law: Television contracts.

Joe: Since Tatis missed most of the last two months I forgot how much fun he makes baseball, doesn’t he? I think Paddack’s curve looks different this year and it seems to be fooling people. Is it moving into that average pitch territory more consistently?
Keith Law: No, not an average CB, a 45 for me. Probably good enough for what he is.

Andrew: Any chance MLB will have fans in the stands come April 2020?
Keith Law: Realistic answer? Maybe. Scientific answer? They shouldn’t.

Fitch: Keith, as an outsider looking in (from UK, we have our own problems). When did Republican start to = idiot? Any post i see online or news clips you seemingly have to be thick, all lives matter, anti science, anti mask etc to be a Republican. Has Trump hardened these lines or did this start before him?
Keith Law: At some point in the Bush presidency, 2000-2008. This isn’t the Republican party of the 1980s or even 1990s. Now, some of it – the fealty to the religious right, general opposition to anti-discrimination laws, smaller government and less social safety net – has been part of their platform since at least the 1960s, but this anti-science, conspiracy theory-toting lunacy is a new feature.

Justin: Bought and loved the book.  Just in the last couple of days I’ve heard on the Mets broadcast that their biggest issue is that they can hit, but they can’t hit with runners in scoring position.  Also heard the Rockies say of course a close pitch would go Story’s way, he has 600 games in the big leagues and the other guy has 6.  My volume down button has never gotten more use.
Keith Law: You’ve made several good decisions there.

Braves Pitchers: Lucas Sims was pretty critical on Twitter of how he was handled by the Braves and they really only have Fried and Soroka to show for their pitching-focused rebuild.  Are there issues with the Braves’ front office re: developing pitching or is it just sour grapes from Sims?
Keith Law: That sounds a bit like sour grapes to me. And they still have some pitching coming, in the majors (Touki, Wilson) and minors (Anderson, Davidson).

Michael: Re: The draft, I’m talking about compared to the top of the draft with Moniak, Pint, Ray, etc.  But you can do the same exercise for any year and find tons of great talent that reached the majors shortly after being picked.
Keith Law: That year had a very weak top 10 and we knew it at the time.

Charlie: Vlad Jr is 21, but 2 very sloppy errors at 1B make me concerned about how hard he works at his craft…
Keith Law: I’ve heard for years that he really works at hitting. That’s great – make him a DH.

Tom: evan white looks very overmatched right now as well
Keith Law: Yes he does, and worse, it’s overmatched by velocity.

Jake: There were some stories from spring training that Gabrial Arias achieved some PD goals in terms of pitch recognition. That’s a big thing holding him back. If everything clicks, what kind of player could he be?
Keith Law: It’s just stories until he does it in games.

Andrew: Trading Max Fried will end up being Preller’s worst trade, wont it?
Keith Law: That would be saying something for the GM who traded Trea Turner for Wil Myers.

Michael: Have you watched Crip Camp on Netflix?  I had no idea the opposition to ADA laws and how it all came about. Amazing what we don’t learn in schools
Keith Law: I have not – heard it’s good, though.

Jay: How do you see the trade deadline playing out?  Very few teams will be out of the playoff picture this year, but you know the billionaire owners won’t let their GMs spend any money.
Keith Law: Probably just encourages more deals where GMs trade players and pay most of their salaries to get prospects back.

Guest: After reading your latest article regarding young MLB prospects and no AAA, would you call up Pache and let him get “real experience.”
Keith Law: I would. It’d help their defense, which in turn would helpt heir pitching too.

Andrew: Is Naylor done for with the Padres? Mateo. Almonte and Profar all ahead of him. If he doesn’t get ABs with universal DH then what is the point?
Keith Law: I think I’d still prefer Naylor’s bat, but I don’t know what they think internally on these guys.

Nick: What do you make of Rhys Hoskins’ struggles over the last half of last year into this year? Seemed so promising after his first two seasons.
Keith Law: His rookie year was pretty fluky; he’s much more of a low-average, high BB/K power hitter, and probably needs to DH. Useful player, not a star.
Keith Law: At least he spells his first name correctly.

Jason: Can Eric Lauer stick in a rotation?
Keith Law: I’m leaning towards no at this point.

Tom: Think Tony Gonsolin can be a solid starter? Looked pretty good last night
Keith Law: He definitely has the weapons to do so.

Mike: I miss minor-league baseball in the Summer.  What does minor league baseball look like when we return?
Keith Law: Short of MLB subsidies, we don’t get MiLB back until it is safe to have fans in the park, and that could be a while, even with a vaccine.

Kip: With their international sanctions ending next year, are the Braves linked to any notable prospects?
Keith Law: I have no idea, as I don’t cover that market or players under 16. Jesse Sanchez at MLB would be a better source.

Amy: Is it bad to just cheer for your team (redsox) to keep losing so they get a high draft pick? it honestly seems like the best thing they could get out of this year.
Keith Law: No, especially since they’re just not that good a team anyway.

Kevin: Nick Solak looking good with the bat  what kind of ceiling does he have and will he be better than Willie in LF ( I know not hard to do) or can he stay on the dirt
Keith Law: Maybe gets to regular status as a multi-position guy. Don’t think his glove is good enough for 2b regular.

Guest: “Say Anything” was a great read.  Are there other historical books like that, not necessarily by Keefe, you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Manhunt by James Swanson.

Mark: Thanks for doing the chat. Do you have a pizza dough recipe recommendation?
Keith Law: For a regular home oven that maxes out at 500-550 degrees, I use Peter Reinhart’s recipe in The Bread Baker’s Apprentice. For my little Ooni outdoor oven, which can get over 800 degrees, I use Marc Vetri’s Mastering Pizza.
Keith Law: You need totally different hydration levels for those two temperatures.

Luke: Is there something noticeably different about the Cubs or just a hot 15-game stretch?
Keith Law: No 15-game stretch is meaningful in terms of evaluating performance. However, it’s 1/4 of a season, so it’s meaningful in the standings this time.

Thomas: HI Keith; First off, thanks as always for these chats. Curious about your thoughts on Charlie Montoyo as a manager so far. I was really excited by his hire, and while anecdotally I think his bullpen management has been fine, his batting orders (moving hot guys down in the order so that the top of the order can bat with men on base) and bunting in extras with the new rule are just a couple of the things that I’ve noticed that seem very anti-Rays.
Keith Law: Agreed. I’ve been surprised at some of his outdated in-game tactics. The fealty to Biggio, who hasn’t performed this year and gets overmatched by velocity, is weird – he shouldn’t be leading off just because he draws walks, not when his OBP is below the league median.

A: Anything surprising about Spencer Howard’s debut?
Keith Law: See my column today.

Ben: When playing guitar are you interested in music theory too or is it more about being able to play songs for a hobby/enjoyment?
Keith Law: I took a music theory class in college but haven’t thought about that stuff since. I just play to win the game. Wait, wrong topic.

Nelson: Does Lamet need another pitch to succeed as a starter at a high level?
Keith Law: I think so. He’s been really good without it this season, though.

Michael: If the season ended today, three below .500 teams would make the playoffs.  Not great, right?
Keith Law: Eh, I’m willing to accept pretty much whatever this season gives me. We have baseball and that alone is a surprise.

Nick: Any thoughts on how Justin Dunn has looked so far?  Is his future in the rotation or the pen?
Keith Law: He’s been 90-91 a lot. This isn’t the guy he was in the minors, certainly not the guy who hit 99 in relief in college and would still sit mid-90s as a starter after that. If this is all he has, he has to go to the pen.

Brian: A couple of Brewers questions: (1) Hiura’s defense has been awful – do you DH him this year and hope the DH sticks in the NL in the long term? (2) What is Adrian Houser’s ceiling?
Keith Law: 1. Yes. 2. Fourth starter.

Dave: Are the Orioles actually interesting? That Ruiz play from last night was pretty impressive.
Keith Law: I haven’t found them that interesting to watch, in terms of players who I think will be part of their next good team or who have real trade value. And those last two games vs the Phillies were ugly all around.

Henry: Hi Keith, what burr grinder do you use for pour-overs? I’m looking to replace mine.
Keith Law: This Baratza Virtuoso. Mine is an older model without the timer. It’s been tremendous, requiring just two part replacements (a new burr, and a plastic housing that eventually cracked) in almost seven years, plus their customer service is an 80.

addoeh: A couple team below .500 making the playoffs isn’t that bad.  1980’s NHL played 80 games to only eliminate 5 of the 21 teams.
Keith Law: I made a joke about this somewhere recently, where I remembered the 1981-82 season (I think) and noticed what you just said, and felt really bad for the five teams that were left out.

Adam: Not a question, but a link worthy for your Stick to Baseball column. Talks about how fringe conspiracy sites and “news” are all free and easily accessible, while quality journalism with high standards is increasingly behind a pay wall. https://www.currentaffairs.org/2020/08/the-truth-is-paywalled-but-the-…
Keith Law: The solution, if there is one, is for sites that facilitate the wide spread of fake news and disinformation sites, such as Facebook, to crack down on them.

James: I saw you liked some tweets defending “WAP.” That song is trash; it’s not art. Cardi B has every right to put it out, of course, but why elevate or defend indecency?
Keith Law: Who are you to decide what is “art?” I actually don’t care for the song, although Megan Thee Stallion is a far better rapper than I realized. But it’s not really a genre of music I especially like, and so much of that song’s meaning is about female sexuality, and I’m really loath to call that “trash” especially when we’ve had several decades of songs where men extol their own sexual prowess without comparable criticism.

Brandon: Yeah absolutely nothing can backfire with having Facebook determine what is and isn’t real news. For such a smart guy you really are extremely naive sometimes
Keith Law: Good comment, Brandon, thanks for making something personal that didn’t need to be. I never said “nothing can backfire.” I am arguing that Facebook and Youtube and Twitter would do better to police content posted on their services instead of letting Miracle Mineral Solution (bleach as a fake health cure) and QAnon (a domestic terror movement) use their sites to spread their messages and recruit new followers.

Andrew: Is it even possible for baseball to do a bubble like the NBA?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, although that’s a better question for scientists in that field. It strikes me that it’s easier for the NBA with rosters less than half the size of MLB rosters.

Dodgers: What makes their player development system so great?  The talent they’re producing is incredible.
Keith Law: They have drafted extremely well in the last few years, and their player development system is one of the best at integrating analytics, mechanics, and traditional methods.

Big Fan: Great article today.  Can Austin Riley be fixed?
Keith Law: His issues with velocity are tied to bat speed, and that’s not an easy fix.

Rick: Brandon Marsh an impact guy? Seems like the Angels should’ve given him a chance over Adell.
Keith Law: Yes, he is. Not sure I agree on him over Adell to start, but switching them now would make sense.

JR: Any idea what AZ will do with Varsho? Seems tough to develop a C in the bigs. Are they resigning themselves to using him as IF/OF?
Keith Law: Plus his speed might be better used at another position. And Carson Kelly is really good. Their alternatives are better than they would be for most teams.

Ridley: I’d put the Republican party’s change all that way back to Goldwater’s defeat. That was the end of the intellectual conservative movement-the party made a conscious effort to be a grass roots, pro-religious-freedom-and-we-know-what-that-means and anti-civil rights party. My parents were part of that movement. They recognized that you don’t start a movement at the top; they organized at the local level, winning schoolboards, winning county posts, and setting the agenda in state agendas. Reagan was their first victory, and he was as anti-expert, anti-intellectual as Bush 2.
Keith Law: It sounds like you know this stuff better than I do – and I’ll at least plead age, since Goldwater’s defeat was 9 years before I was born.

Jackie: Can Charlie Blackmon hit .500?
Keith Law: He can definitely hit .400.

Will: Do you agree with Mo Rivera that a team can’t be a world champion in a sixty game season?
Keith Law: No, and it’s not even the biggest thing on which Mo and I disagree.

Jay: Basic policing of content is not hard.  When a toxic source like the two you mentioned becomes prominent enough to get attention, drop the ban hammer and don’t look back.  A gazillion other sites already do it.  Facebook simply doesn’t want to.
Keith Law: Exactly. And Youtube doesn’t either. I’ve reported videos promoting MMS, which their policy explicitly bans, and nothing happens. I don’t like the idea of the government creating new regulatory structures but maybe that’s the threat we need to get these companies to step up their own enforcement.

Brian: The Mets have started Dom Smith at DH and Pete Alonso at 1B in each of the past three games.  Is the wrong thing to do because Smith is objectively a better defender?  Is it the right thing to do because Alonso may not perform as well if he’s only DHing (which is speculation, for sure), or because they may not have the benefit of the DH next year and Alonso needs to maintain his skills in the field?
Keith Law: My guess is that it’s status quo bias: Alonso was the primary 1B last year and moving him to DH would constitute a change. I don’t know anyone who’d argue Alonso is a better defensive 1B than Smith; Smith is probably a 70 there. Even if you love Alonso’s glove, it’s a 50, and I’d argue it’s less. So  what explanation is there? Inertia.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and for reading. Please stay safe, stay distant in public, and wear your masks. Someday we will meet again.