The Tigers made the first big splash of the Hot Stove season Monday, agreeing to a five-year deal with Eduardo Rodriguez worth a reported $77 million, for an average annual value of $15.4 million. That’s an aggressive contract length for Rodriguez, given his history, but it undervalues his potential as a starting pitcher if he has a full, healthy season in 2022.
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Rodriguez was better in 2021 than a superficial look at his line might indicate, and that’s without giving him any extra credit for coming back from myocarditis. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate was just 3.32, well below his ERA of 4.74. That’s a function of his uncharacteristically high BABIP (.363, when his career worst had been .317) and his career-worst strand rate. His stuff was intact, down just a fraction of a mile an hour from 2019, and his strikeout and walk rates, two things over which a pitcher has the most control, were as good as ever. He works with an above-average fastball and a plus changeup but has never found an average breaking ball. His cutter/slider was his worst pitch last year, accounting for more of the hard contact he gave up than either the fastball or the changeup. That pitch was far more effective for him prior to 2020, and it’s a reasonable bet that it’ll return to form next year, as the pitch itself wasn’t any different this past season. He has above-average starter upside, reaching it in 2019 and at least pitching like one when it came to strikeout and walk rates in 2021.
Rodriguez’s signing seems to indicate that the Tigers are serious about contending in 2022, as they should be, but perhaps they are less confident in what they’ll get from their trio of returning young starters, especially Matt Manning. Casey Mize’s season had its bright spots, but there are also some reasons to expect him to fare worse in 2022. His .254 BABIP allowed would have been the third-lowest in baseball had he qualified, and his strand rate would have landed him in the top 10, both statistics that are subject to a fair amount of randomness and interference from teammates’ performances. Mize has the stuff to miss more bats, especially his splitter, which he should throw more often, but his peripheral stats from last year and his current pitch mix point more to a league-average starter than an ace.
Tarik Skubal’s peripherals were even worse, with a 5.08 FIP that had him barely above replacement level on the year, although he, like Mize, has the potential to be better. Manning was the most disappointing of the three, however, as his results were poor and his stuff was down, with two well-below-average breaking pitches, and about 40 percent of his fastballs coming in at 93 mph or below. Any or all of these three could improve in 2022, but none is at the level where the Tigers would need them to be if they were to form the core of a contending rotation. With Spencer Turnbull out probably for the year after Tommy John surgery and Matt Boyd coming off elbow surgery, the Tigers needed innings and quality.
If the Tigers want to contend, however, why not go sign the best starter on the market? I’m all for players getting paid, and in Rodriguez’s case, with a year lost to myocarditis, itself caused by a COVID-19 infection, it seems even more deserved. But this investment implies a level of confidence in his future durability beyond anything I could muster based on all of the available information. Rodriguez has qualified for the ERA title once in his career, falling five innings short in 2021, and while innings totals for starters ain’t what they used to be, there’s value in quantity. Rodriguez hasn’t provided that consistently as a starter — at least not to this point in his career. That it has been for diverse reasons, including knee surgery and myocarditis, might give us a little more confidence. The Tigers also gave up a draft choice for the signing, as Rodriguez received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, who I assume will be more than happy to take the extra pick.
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If Rodriguez is worth this contract — and I’m not saying he isn’t — then what are the superior starters on the market worth? Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray should all be asking for more than Rodriguez got, in years and in annual salary. I don’t know that the market will give any of these starters six years and $120 million, but if Rodriguez’s contract is a harbinger of the value MLB teams will place on starting pitchers this winter, every one of those three guys should have those parameters as their goals.
There are more than enough teams with the need for a top-end starter and the revenue to pay one, but for many reasons, some rational and some less so, the industry has been loath to give starting pitchers long-term deals. The Tigers have been out of tune with the market before. They gave Jordan Zimmermann, an older pitcher in clear decline, five years and $110 million before the 2016 season, although this deal is nowhere near like that one — so perhaps this isn’t a sign, but teams looking for starters should be dialing up their expectations.
(Photo of Eduardo Rodriguez: Winslow Townson / USA Today)
