With the 2021 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft – we’re just going to go with “the draft,” for short – now in the books, here’s my look at each team’s draft class. I focus on the top 10 rounds, since those are the picks that count toward each team’s bonus pool; players taken after the 10th round might be paid up to $125,000 without counting against the bonus pool, so the best prospects taken in rounds 11 through 20 rarely end up signing.
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The number in parentheses after each player’s name indicates the round in which he was taken; the letter A indicates that it was a supplemental pick between rounds, either for losing a free agent or from the competitive balance lottery. I do assume that all players taken in the top 10 rounds will sign, although each year there are roughly two to five players who don’t for various reasons.
Finally, I don’t grade drafts; I think that whole idea is absurd. The best I can offer is to tell you that I think teams did well or not well based on what I know about the players available at those picks.
Chicago White Sox
Colson Montgomery (1) is a tall, lanky shortstop from southern Indiana who has a sweet left-handed swing. Scouts praise his approach, but he hasn’t always hit well against good pitching and didn’t face any this spring. He’s athletic enough for third base but too big to stay at short. Arizona high school shortstop Wes Kath (2) will also move to third base in pro ball, and he has a chance to develop into a plus hitter with plus power as he fills out, although I worry that he can over-rotate at the plate.
Sean Burke (3) was up to 97 early in the spring but wore down as the season progressed. He’s 6-foot-6 and gets good life on the fastball, with a 55 changeup and average-ish slider, and has some deception in the delivery. Lefty Brooks Gosswein (4) was a senior at nearby Bradley University, where he posted a 5-plus ERA this spring and last spring while facing bad competition. He has ridiculous stuff for those results – 92-96, an extremely tight-breaking curveball, a power changeup – so I get the pick, but, come on, you have to get Missouri Valley Conference hitters out with this kind of arsenal.
Tanner McDougal (5) is a very projectable high school right-hander who sits in the low 90s with a loose arm, needing some delivery refinement and the typical kind of physical maturation for a teenaged arm. They went with college seniors in rounds 6-10, probably to help go over slot for McDougal and maybe Kath. TCU senior Johnny Ray (12) can show a plus fastball but was awful in the Frogs’ rotation this spring. As for more, who wants to know?
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Cleveland
Gavin Williams (1) had first-round stuff, maybe top 10 stuff, and wowed scouts who attended East Carolina’s regional against Vanderbilt by hitting 98 and holding velocity deep into his outing. He has three pitches and a delivery that’s on line to the plate. He’s had some minor injuries that pushed him to later into the round, but Cleveland might have gotten a steal here. Ole Miss right-hander Doug Nikhazy (2) was badly overworked in the postseason; Ole Miss had him throw 119 pitches on a Saturday and still rolled him out for a relief appearance two days later. He mixes all four pitches well and hides the ball enough to add deception, although everything is average and he tops out around 92. He’s extremely competitive and has been a successful starter in the country’s best conference for three years. He was also arrested on a DUI charge when he was 20, behavior that likely affected his draft stock.
Tommy Mace (2A) came into the year as a potential first-rounder, a senior who’d save a team some money but was worthy of the pick. He struggled to get into any kind of rhythm this spring, still just 90-94 and getting hit in the zone on it, relying on a cutter because it was the one pitch he could get to work. There’s something here, but he needs a new pitching plan.
High school shortstop Jake Fox (3) swings uphill too often and doesn’t offer much if any projection. He’ll move to second base in pro ball. Georgia’s Ryan Webb (4) has power stuff from the left side, but it’s the offspeed stuff – changeup, curve and slider – that separates him, and if he pitches more away from the fastball and off his secondaries, he has mid-rotation upside.
Fullerton right-hander Tanner Bibee (5) throws strikes with four average-ish pitches, topping out at 92, with a changeup that can flash above-average when he gets it down in the zone. Cleveland took Mace’s teammate, right-hander Jack Leftwich (7), who’s been up to 96 since at least his freshman year with a power slider, but without the command to start. He and Franco Aleman (10) spent most of the season in the Gators bullpen; Aleman is a slinging right-hander with some velocity and a sweepy slider.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers took Jackson Jobe (1), the top high school pitcher in the class, with the third overall pick. He can work at 94-96 with plus spin and life on the pitch, and shows a plus slider with enormous spin rates, as well as a changeup and curveball. He’s a great athlete with a delivery he can repeat well, a harbinger of future command. He has all the ingredients you’d want in a future ace.
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If you read any of my stuff, you probably know where I stand on taking a high school pitcher – any high school pitcher – this high. Their failure rate is so much higher than that of any other class of player (college anything, high school hitter) that the rational approach to the draft is to skip high school players at least in the top half of the first round. Taking them anyway is an example of base rate neglect, where you think the example you have is special or an outlier and underweight the risk of the class as a whole. Jackson Jobe might be a future superstar, but right now, he’s a high school pitcher.
Texas right-hander Ty Madden (1A) is a two-pitch starter who was worked very hard this spring, averaging over 100 pitches per appearance. He has the size and velocity of a starter, with a plus pitch in the slider, but no changeup to speak of to get lefties out. There’s big reliever risk here.
Third baseman Izaac Pacheco (2) has first-round tools with a strong swing, big power upside, and solid defense at third base (especially for a 6-foot-4, 225-pound kid). He does open up his front side through contact, which the Tigers will probably want to close off so he isn’t vulnerable to left-handers.
Alabama right-hander Dylan Smith (3) is a rare projection college arm; he’s athletic and can get up to 95, but still has room to grow and add velocity and stamina. He has an above-average fastball/curveball combination at his best but needs to develop his changeup and improve his fastball command. There’s mid-rotation upside with some risk here. Bryant right-hander Tyler Mattison (4) was a senior but is still just 21; he has a compact delivery and short arm action he repeats exceptionally well, throwing three pitches for strikes. He’s up to 94 from a high three-quarters slot with depth on the breaking ball. He’s quite good. Tanner Kohlhepp (5) is a low-slot right-hander – think Justin Masterson – who’s up to 96 with life and a slider that should make him a solid right-on-right reliever.
Brant Hurter (7) was one of the better senior arms in the draft, a 6-6 lefty who just came back from Tommy John surgery. He’s up to 94 with a solid slider and changeup, possibly a backend starter but with more upside as he continues to recover from surgery. Right-hander Jordan Marks (8) has been up to 96 for Hollywood Upstairs … I mean, South Carolina Upstate, with an average curveball and potentially average changeup. He throws plenty of strikes to profile as a fifth starter.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals stunned the baseball world by taking Connecticut prep left-hander Frank Mozzicato (1) with the seventh overall pick. Mozzicato is a good projection lefty – up to 94 but often 86-90 with a plus curveball, solid control and an athletic delivery – but it does seem like they passed over some more valuable prospects at that pick, such as Kahlil Watson or Kumar Rocker, while also taking on the risk of high school pitching in the first round. They went with another high school pitcher in the second round, taking local right-hander Ben Kudrna (2), whose slider and changeup both project to be above-average or better, and who has a good delivery as well as projection.
Alabama second baseman Peyton Wilson (2A) has good bat speed and some pull power, but he’s a fringy defender and is too aggressive at the plate to forecast him as a probable everyday player.
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Catcher Carter Jensen (3), another local kid, is a bat-first catcher whose hit and power tools both project to plus, but he’s a real project behind the plate and might not stay at the position long term.
Right-hander Shane Panzini (4) is another high school arm but is less of a projection guy, already up to 95 with power and life to the pitch; he’s already 19¾ and reasonably filled out, with a basket of 45s among his three secondary pitches.
Right-hander Eric Cerantola (5) has hit 100 with huge spin rates, but his control is so poor he went from the Mississippi State rotation in February to being left off the team’s postseason roster. I have to think the Royals view him as a Josh Staumont type, although Staumont did it a little easier.
Dayton Dooney (6) transferred from the University of Arizona to Central Arizona Junior College as a 21-year-old, mashing against mostly younger pitchers all spring. He has a simple swing and some hand strength to drive the ball, so he should hit well at least in the low minors, but he can’t run and doesn’t have a clear position unless he can improve significantly at second base.
They rolled the dice on NC State catcher Luca Tresh (17), a potential everyday backstop who had a miserable year at the plate, and would definitely add some floor to this draft if they can sign him. The last time the Royals drafted a high school pitcher who generated more than 0.1 WAR in the majors was Jakob Junis, their 29th-round pick in 2011 and a tremendous scouting and development success story. Their switch back to high school arms after going for college pitchers or for bats the past two years is something of a surprise given that history.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins went with two prep players to start their draft and then stuck to the college ranks, often going for performance over tools. Right-hander Chase Petty (1) was the hardest-throwing high school pitcher in the class, touching 101 mph this spring with a hard slider in the upper 80s, but he does it with a lot of effort, including some head violence. It’s a reliever look, and you could just develop him that way. The Twins could also try to tone down the delivery and see how it works if he’s throwing 95 instead of trying to pitch like he’s smashing hadrons. Wisconsin prep infielder Noah Miller (1A) is a switch-hitter who gets high praise for his baseball IQ, although he lacks any plus tools right now. He has a good chance to stay at short and could be an above-average regular if he continues to hit. Michigan lefty Steven Hajjar (2) is 6-5 but throws just 87-91 with fringe-average secondary stuff. His delivery could use a lot of refining, from getting him to extend better over his front side (and make use of his height) to keeping him on line to the plate.
Nebraska lefty Cade Povich (3) is 88-90 but has a solid-average two-plane curveball and a potentially average changeup. He’s 6-3 but stays very tall over the rubber, and hitters look uncomfortable against his fastball. The velocity isn’t quite where it needs to be, but he has backend starter ingredients, including above-average control.
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Third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand (4) transferred to Oklahoma State from Yavapai JC and hit .361/.442/.661 for the Cowboys, albeit with just 20 walks and 50 strikeouts in 267 plate appearances. The power is surprising given his swing, which is short and comes up through the ball, but I would have to see him fail in pro ball before trying to change it. He does seem to have very strong hands, at least.
Christian Macleod (5) has a below-average fastball but above-average command and control, serving as the Friday night starter for Mississippi State. He gave up 16 homers this year in 82 2/3 innings and finished with a 5.23 ERA; it’s hard to see things going any better in pro ball unless he can add velocity.
Sacramento State right-hander Travis Adams (6) is 90-93 but has above-average control, and his changeup might be plus. He’s a little smaller for a right-handed starter and doesn’t have enough of a breaking ball for that role, but he could be something as a two-pitch reliever.
Tennessee third baseman Jake Rucker (7) has some sneaky pop, but he’s a fastball hitter with too much swing-and-miss to get to his power, and he’s probably going to have to move to second or left field. The Twins took two college catchers after Rucker, Noah Cardenas (8) and Pat Winkel (9); Cardenas hasn’t hit at all since 2019, and Winkel has shown some power but not hit for average, and he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery.
(Photo of Jackson Jobe: Courtesy of Heritage Hall / Kimberly Richelle)
