The Jays have depleted their system quite a bit through trades and promotions, leading to the team’s wild-card berth last year. They still have a decent reserve of talent, just not at the level of the last group, with a lot of teenage talent in A-ball that looks like it’s on the cusp of breaking out.
GO DEEPER
MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 47)
Age: 20 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 91 in 2021
Tiedemann went undrafted out of high school in 2020, then went to junior college and ended up a third-round pick of the Jays in 2021. His velocity started to creep up as soon as instructional league. He topped out at 97-98 mph in 2022, although he tapered off over the course of the season and was sitting 93-94 when I saw him in September at Double-A Somerset, when the Jays had him on a strict three-inning limit to manage his workload. When fully healthy, he’s got power stuff, with big horizontal break to the slider that makes it a weapon against left- and right-handed batters, and an above-average changeup that he will need more as he gets to Triple A and the majors. He has a tough delivery to repeat, starting on the extreme first-base end of the rubber and never quite getting online, so locating to his glove side is a challenge. If he can develop his command and control — which might mean getting him more online to the plate — he has front-line starter potential. There’s also reliever risk here, although in that role he’d probably be an elite, 35-40 percent strikeout rate pitcher.
Advertisement
2. Orelvis Martinez, SS (Just-missed list)
Age: 21 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
Martinez had just 27 games in High A prior to 2022, but the Blue Jays took a chance and promoted him to Double A to start the season. It was too aggressive given Martinez’s lack of plate discipline, and he struggled quite a bit at the level, with a .286 OBP and a 28.5 percent strikeout rate. He did hit 30 homers, however, and played above-average defense at third base with close-to-average defense at short, although I don’t think he’s going to stay at shortstop for the long term. He was the only 20-year-old to play regularly in the Eastern League last year and one of only three anywhere in Double A; the other two, Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn, are both on the top 100 list. I think it is way too early to give up on Martinez, but I also couldn’t rank him over guys who might have similar ceilings with less risk, or who just have a lot more probability.
3. Brandon Barriera, LHP
Age: 19 | 6-2 | 180 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 23 in 2022
Barriera was the Jays’ first-round pick in 2022, a “now” pitcher, kind of the way Andrew Painter was in the 2021 draft, where the stuff is already there and we’re not waiting on physical projection. Barriera has been up to 98 mph with a plus changeup and a high spin-rate curveball, showing fringy or worse command, but also able to just overpower competition in high school. He’s 6-2 and 180-190ish pounds, not offering much room to fill out but also not needing any more velocity or stuff. If he stays healthy this year, he’ll almost certainly be on the top 100 a year from now.
4. Tucker Toman, 3B
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 77 in 2022
Toman was the Jays’ third pick last year, one of four they had on day one, but he took home their second-highest bonus of the draft at $2 million. He’s a switch-hitter who projects to hit for average and to show above-average to plus power as he fills out, with some concerns about his whiffs against better competition as a high schooler. Scouts raved about his feel for the game, as he grew up around the sport with his father spending 13 years as a Division I head coach. Tucker played short and third in high school but third base is his ultimate position. If he makes enough contact, he projects as an above-average regular who has 20+ homers and league-average OBPs.
Advertisement
5. Sem Robberse, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-1 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019
Robberse, the best Dutch prospect currently in the minors, lost some weight going into 2022 and it cost him over a mile an hour on his fastball, something he has to reverse to be more than a fifth starter. He’s a command guy with a great delivery and good spin on two distinct breaking balls. If he threw 96 mph, he’d be a top-10 pitching prospect in the sport. He looks like he could put some weight back on and get himself to solid-average velo, at which point he’s probably a mid-rotation starter given his feel for pitching and present command. I’m betting he gets there.
6. Yosver Zulueta, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right| Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019
Zulueta sits 97-98 mph and has hit 100 many times, showing a full arsenal to start but scattering the ball to the point where he walked 18 men in 19 innings between Double A and Triple A last year. He missed 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, 2020 to the pandemic, and 2021 after he tore an ACL fielding a ball hit by the first batter he ever faced after signing with the Jays in 2018. Last year’s 55 2/3 innings across all four full-season levels marked a career high. He has a super-short arm action that I don’t think he can harness enough to get to even 45 control — which might be all he needs to be a starter, given the raw stuff. His slider and curve might both be plus, assuming he can get to them (rather than falling behind and finding himself forced to throw anything for a strike), giving him a definite path to the majors as a bullpen guy, maybe even this year.
7. Hayden Juenger, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right| Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 182 in 2021
Juenger was a little-used reliever at Missouri State, which is kind of hard to fathom given how good he’s been as a starter since the Jays took him in the sixth round in 2021. Did the Bears have three future MLB aces in their rotation or something? Anyway, Juenger works 92-97 mph with a 55 change and 50/55 slider, missing some bats with all three, but also making mistakes with all three in the upper half of the zone. He gave up 18 homers in 83 innings between Double A and Triple A, half on his fastball, which has velocity but not a ton of life. He could still be a back-end starter if he improves his command in what will be just his second year of starting, although he was less homer-prone working in relief to manage his innings later in the year, so that’s more of a possibility for him to help the major-league team in the near term. The Jays really should call him up this year. After all, he’s not getting any Juenger.
Advertisement
8. Gabriel Martinez, OF
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
Martinez is a corner outfielder who already shows advanced command of the strike zone for a 19-year-old, hitting .293/.355/.477 between Low and High A last year, with just a 16.4 percent strikeout rate and 37 extra-base hits in 96 games. He projected to have power when younger but didn’t hit a pro home run that counted until this past year — his first one, in 2021, was disallowed because he passed a runner while rounding the bases — and ended up with 14 on the season. He’s adequate in either corner in the outfield, so there’s some pressure on the bat. Given what he’s already done at 19, with room to get even stronger, he has a high probability of becoming a regular or more given his age and experience level.
9. Leo Jimenez, SS
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2017
Jimenez’s first year in High A was a mixed bag, as the Panamanian shortstop went from 1 career home run to 6 in just a half-season, but was limited by injury to 69 games (which is NOT nice) and saw his plate discipline numbers both head in the wrong directions. He’s still a high-contact hitter and the power was the result of him putting on a good amount of muscle the previous offseason, but needs a consolidation year where he recaptures the selectivity that made him interesting before 2022 and the power he showed last year. He’s a fringy defender at short now, putting more pressure on the bat. He needs a full season of at-bats more than anything else right now.
10. Addison Barger, IF
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 176 in 2018
Barger started making harder contact in 2021 out of the pandemic, then held on to those gains and added a little more with moves up to High A and Double A last season. There’s real power here, 20-odd homers if he could play every day, but he looked far different against lefties with decent stuff and might be better off as the strong side of a platoon. He’s not a shortstop but he’s solid at third and I see no reason he couldn’t handle second. He could be a regular at either of those spots on a non-contender, whereas for a good club he’s a very good utility infielder who can handle short on a temporary basis and would also be a valuable pinch-hitter when he’s sitting against a lefty starter.
11. Dasan Brown, OF
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 88 in 2019
Advertisement
Brown’s an 80 runner and no worse than a 60 defender in center, with explosive bat speed and better contact quality last year in his age-20 season. There’s just too much swing and miss right now, especially for someone with his offensive profile; he struck out 28.3 percent of the time last year between Low and High A, although in his defense, he had all of 65 pro games under his belt before last year due to injury and the pandemic year. He’s also from greater Toronto, which is worth an extra 0.5 runs a game, I think. I’m not sure about the current exchange rate.
12. Josh Kasevich, SS
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 60 in 2022
Kasevich is a lot like Angels infielder David Fletcher, a capable middle infielder who never struck out in college, takes a few walks, and has too little power to play every day. Fletcher has already been worth 10.5 WAR in his career, even with a .274/.324/.360 line, because he’s an elite defender at second and a 45 defender at short, and he puts the ball in play enough to get by. I think that’s Kasevich’s most likely path to success as well; in his two years as a starter at Oregon, he struck out 7.6 percent of the time, and in his pro debut in Low A he struck out 7.4 percent of the time, but with no power anywhere. I like him, even with these limitations, perhaps because there’s something old-school about this style of player, and in a peculiar way he’s become undervalued.
13. Cade Doughty, 3B/2B
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 78 in 2022
Doughty was the Jays’ fourth pick of the 2022 draft, as they had two extra picks for losing Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien, using them on Doughty and Tucker Toman. Doughty crushes fastballs, hitting with a very wide stance that doesn’t give him a lot of time to adjust to offspeed stuff. He’s a 45 defender at third or second right now and might move to an outfield corner, where he has the power to profile but probably not the hit tool, at least not yet.
14. Adam Macko, LHP
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 170 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 219 in 2019
Macko came back to Toronto in the deal that sent Teoscar Hernández to Seattle, and he has one of the most interesting back stories in the minors: He was born in Slovakia and began playing baseball there, then moved to Ireland for a few years and continued playing, finally going to high school in Alberta, leading the Mariners to draft him in the seventh round in 2019. Macko is 92-95 mph in relief with an above-average slider, and iffy control, and he’s had trouble staying healthy as a starter, including a bout of shoulder soreness that ended his 2021 season. I think he has a future in relief and might prefer to see him move there now to avoid further stints on the IL.
Advertisement
15. Dahian Santos, RHP
Age: 20 | 5-11 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019
Santos is a 5-11 right-hander who changed his breaking ball grip last year and used it to strike out a ton of guys. Maybe more pitchers should do that. But really, he struck out 39.3 percent of batters he faced — while working as a starter — in Low A, then made four starts in High A and struck out 34 percent. Granted, his ERA at the second stop was over 10, but let’s not split hairs here. He’s mostly a two-pitch guy who has a changeup but didn’t use it much until the very end of the year, and lefties tagged him for a .370 OBP last year. If he uses the changeup more and it turns out it’s enough to neutralize lefties, even partly relative to what he does against righties, he’s a fourth starter.
16. Adrian Pinto, SS
Age: 20 | 5-6 | 156 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019
Acquired last winter in the trade that sent Randal Grichuk to Colorado for reasons I can’t quite understand, Pinto might end up the most valuable part of the trade. He’s a fun-sized infielder, listed at 5-6, who runs plus and has sneaky pop for his size, makes good swing decisions, and has a very tiny strike zone. He’s stretched at short but could probably be above average at second base. He only played 47 games last year and now has just 418 total PA in his career, more than half of them in the DSL in 2021, so he needs reps — and we need to see him more. I’m interested, and not just because he’s my height.
17. Manuel Beltre, SS/2B
Age: 19 | 5-9 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2021
Beltre continued to improve his defense to the point where he looks like he’ll stay at shortstop and play at least above-average defense. His bat didn’t take the big jump last year as he hit just .234/.351/.310 in his U.S. debut in the FCL. He still has a pretty right-handed swing that produces hard contact, and at some point that should translate into not just in-game power but higher BABIPs as well. He’ll turn 19 in June, so he’s the equivalent of a high school senior right now but will still probably go to Low A. The everyday or better upside is still here, but I suppose I’ll have to learn some patience, if I ever have the time.
18. Alex de Jesus, 3B
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
De Jesus was in the midst of a great season for a 20-year-old when he found himself traded from the Dodgers to Toronto along with Mitch White for prospects Nick Frasso and Moises Brito. For whatever reason, he didn’t hit at all after the trade, albeit in a small sample. He has a fantastic swing from the right side, with good hand acceleration and a simple, direct path to the ball, with power that started to emerge in 2021 and came on further last year. He runs deep counts with high walk and strikeout totals, punching out too often (29.3 percent), but does enough at the plate that it could all work if he cuts that percentage just a little bit, down to one in four or so. The Dodgers had mostly moved him to third base, but the Jays put him back at shortstop more than they played him at the hot corner; he’s way more likely to end up at third, or even second. If he puts the ball in play more, he has the other skills to be a regular. That’s a big if, though, even for a kid who’ll turn 21 in March.
Advertisement
19. Otto Lopez, UT
Age: 24 | 5-10 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2016
Lopez is a perfect utility man; he can play short and center on a temporary basis, and obviously most of the other positions as well, and he puts the ball in play a lot. He lacks the power or even the impact to be a regular, but that positional versatility combined with a high contact rate makes him a perfect fifth infielder/fourth outfielder, someone who might end up playing 100+ games a year but never be a regular.
20. Rainer Nuñez, 1B
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2016
Nuñez was signed as a shortstop but he’s gotten so big that he’s either going to play first base, where he needs work, or end up a DH, but he puts the ball in play consistently and can crush a mistake. If he had better plate discipline, he’d be somewhere in the top 10 for the Jays because there’d be more margin for error around the bat. As is, he has to hit for a fairly high average and get to enough mistakes to keep his slug up enough to give him value as a bat-only first baseman. The contact skill is there, so there’s hope.
Others of note
First baseman Spencer Horwitz had a huge half-season in Double A at 24 to start 2022, moved up to Triple A, and fell a good bit back to earth. He does have a very good eye at the plate and gets the bat on the ball, but it’s 45 power and he doesn’t hit lefties. Platoon first basemen without power are hard-pressed to find a path to playing time, for good reason … Right-hander C.J. Van Eyk missed the year due to Tommy John surgery but should be back for spring training; he has mid-rotation stuff but in his pro debut in 2021 showed 45 control and 40 command … Right-hander Irv Carter was the Jays’ fifth-rounder in 2021 and struggled in his pro debut last year, but he did sit 93 with a solid-average changeup, and there’s still projection here to the body and delivery.
2023 impact
I think Zulueta or Juenger could come up at any point as relievers if the team needs relief help, while Tiedemann probably won’t come up until they have a place for him to start.
The fallen
Adam Kloffenstein was their third-round pick in 2018, earning a first-round bonus (and the second-highest of any player taken after the first round), but his stuff has backed up significantly since high school, as he was 90-91 mph in Double A with below-average secondaries and posted a 6+ ERA.
Sleeper
Gabriel Martinez looks poised for a big breakout at this point. If he keeps up what he did for High-A Vancouver in the last month of the season, he’ll be in the top 50 next winter.
(Photo of Ricky Tiedemann: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
