Each spring, I offer some candidates for breakout seasons, based on past scouting reports (including my own looks), something I see in their performances or Statcast data, or a combination thereof. This year’s list is a little different, with such a short 2020 season behind us, and I don’t feel as strongly about this batch of breakout candidates as I have in most past years. (It’s also worth acknowledging that I’ve been far better at predicting breakouts a year too early than predicting breakouts, but I’ve had some hits, like predicting a Blake Snell breakout the year he won his Cy Young.) But the show must go on, so here are a few players who could take significant steps forward this year with more playing time, health, or other changes to their arsenals or swings.
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Keston Hiura, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
Hiura was the 9th overall pick in 2017 despite spending the entire spring at DH due to an elbow injury, and while he’s never had surgery on the joint, he’s also been a terrible defender at second, leading the Brewers to sign Kolten Wong this winter and move Hiura to first. One reason I’m bullish on Hiura’s bat is that he’ll no longer have the added burden of trying to play a defensive position that’s beyond his capabilities. The other is that despite high strikeout rates in the majors, Hiura continues to hit the ball hard when he does make contact, barreling the ball at exceptional rates the last two years and even hitting for surprising power (13 HR in 59 games in 2020). There are certainly reasons for concern; he swings and misses too often at fastballs up and sliders down and away, but he does damage on those pitch types when he connects with them, and he never struck out at rates approaching his major-league results. This is a bet that moving to first and gaining more experience gets his K rate under 30 percent, and that his batting average and OBP jump significantly as a result.
Trevor Rogers, LHP, Miami Marlins
I almost never include players who still qualify as rookies on these lists, but I’m making an exception in Rogers’ case because there’s already something different about him from last year. The main knock I had on Rogers before this season was the lack of an average breaking ball, but Rogers has changed his grip on his slider and so far this spring has shown a markedly higher spin rate on the pitch. I said in my writeup of him back in early February that he could be a league-average starter with just the fastball/changeup, given the extension in his delivery too. If the slider is even an average pitch for him now – it could be more, although with just two appearances so far this spring I don’t want to draw any strong conclusions – he could be league-average right away, and I’d bump up his ceiling too.
Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Tucker sort of broke out in 2020, so this is a belief that what he did in the mini-season will continue. Tucker’s breakout was split, as he mashed against right-handed pitching (.293/.355/.550), which I absolutely believe he can continue over the course of a full season. He did nothing against lefties, with a .212 BABIP that led to a .217/.260/.435 line, although it was weak contact that was his downfall rather than an inability to hit any particular pitch – he put more breaking balls from left-handers in play than he whiffed on. Maybe he still shows some platoon split in 2021, but I expect more production against lefties than he showed last year, and I fully believe he’ll continue to hit right-handers as he did in 2020.
Josh Naylor, OF, Cleveland
Naylor has been traded twice, suspended for injuring a teammate, transformed his body, and still won’t turn 24 until late June, but so far he hasn’t replicated his minor-league success in the majors. He’s better able to use his athleticism now that he’s improved his conditioning, and he should have a regular job in right field to start the year. He rarely strikes out for a hitter with plus-plus raw power, but so far in limited major-league time, he hasn’t made enough hard contact for a hitter of his strength. He does have excellent patience and plate coverage, but some of this involves making better decisions on when to swing — laying off pitches low and away that he can reach but not hit hard, for example. And some may just be a matter of a small sample. He’s more than strong enough to make consistent hard contact, getting that BABIP well up over .300, with a batting average in the .270-280 range and 20 homers.
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Scott Kingery, whatever, Philadelphia Phillies
Here’s hoping 2021 is the year when Scott Kingery gets to play one position, instead of moving all over the diamond, trying to play positions (notably shortstop) that are beyond his skill set. The positional difficulties and some inexplicable changes to his swing have taken him from a guy who hit .304/.359/.530 between Double A and Triple A in 2017 to a guy with two negative WARs in three seasons in the majors. He’s not likely to hit 26 bombs again, but he’s a plus runner with a natural line-drive swing to which he needs to return to become a hitter for average and doubles/triples power. Centerfield, Kingery’s position his first two years in college, seems like the most probable spot for him right now. But I’m hopeful he’ll eventually take over at second base, where he’s a potential 70 defender, and that his high-average ways will return with the adjustments the Phillies already seem to want him to make to his swing.
Adrian Houser, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have quietly developed a couple of aces or near-aces in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, bringing both guys along in relief roles first and then moving them to the rotation. Houser seemed like he was on that path for 2020, but when play resumed in July, he wasn’t very sharp, losing about a mile an hour off his fastball from 2019, and the Brewers’ porous defense let him down further – he had the 11th-highest BABIP of any pitcher with at least 50 IP last year. A normal offseason and a much better Milwaukee defense should help him become a league-average starter, and he certainly has the build and delivery to soak up some innings in that role.
Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Polanco could be a free agent after the season, with two option years left at $12.5 million and $13.5 million, so a breakout this year could determine where he’s playing in 2022. He was hurt for most of 2019, and never seemed right after contracting COVID-19 last July. Now he seems completely healthy and ready to produce at least as he did in 2018 – but even that didn’t show his full potential as a hitter. He was solid in 2018, even with his longer swing that puts the ball in the air, with launch angles averaging around 20 degrees, and that’s probably going to mean higher strikeout rates than his pre-2018 levels. The Pirates will surely take that, though, if he reaches 25-plus homers for the first time. Given his prodigious tools, his major-league career has really been underwhelming, but he’s been hurt enough that it’s possible he just has to get healthy to have a real breakout now at age 29. It feels like it’s now or never for him after so many years of underperformance.
(Photo of Hiura: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
