White Sox’s top 20 prospects for 2022: Keith Law ranks Chicago’s farm system

Colson Montgomery (2) hits a home run during the WWBA World Championship at Terry Park on October 10, 2020 in Fort Myers, Florida. Colson Montgomery, a resident of Holland, Indiana who attends Southridge High School, is committed to Indiana. (Mike Janes/Four Seam Images via AP)
By Keith Law
Feb 9, 2022

Yes, this is the worst farm system in baseball, but at least the White Sox used their prospects to build a legitimate contender. It should tell you how much they depleted their system when you see that their top three prospects have all joined the organization in the last eight months.

To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.

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1. Colson Montgomery, SS

Age: 20 | 6-4 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 22 in 2021

Montgomery was the White Sox’s first-round pick in 2021, an athletic 19-year-old shortstop from a rural Indiana high school. He’s tall and lanky with a pretty left-handed swing that should let him make hard contact and get into 20+ homer power when he fills out, but he didn’t face much quality pitching as an amateur, so there were wide discrepancies in evaluations of his hit tool. He’s athletic enough to play shortstop, but he’s 6-4 already and probably going to end up at 230+, so third base is his most likely future position. He had a great pro debut in the ACL, hitting .287/.396/.362 with just an 18 percent strikeout rate, and if he continues to show this kind of approach in Low A next year it will dispel most of those concerns about whether he’ll hit.

2. Wes Kath, 3B

Age: 19 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 57 in 2021

Kath, the team’s second-round pick, is the other side of the high school hitter coin from Montgomery, as Kath was drafted more for his bat — but he didn’t hit well at all in his debut. He has a smooth, clean left-handed swing that should produce more contact than what we saw in the ACL (36.5 percent strikeout rate) and eventually 20-plus homer power, although he doesn’t have great bat speed. He’s capable of playing third base and staying there as he fills out, as he’s a better athlete than you might guess at first glance. If you go off swings, you’d take Kath, but Montgomery performed better and offers more athleticism.

3. Oscar Colás, OF

Age: 23 | 6-1 | 209 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left

The White Sox finally signed Colás, who last played in 2019 in Japan’s NPB and Cuba’s Serie Nacional, after nearly two years of rumors that they were going to land him. Colás, who took home a $2.7 million bonus when he signed last month, is a strong-armed right fielder who has also pitched in the past, and unlike most international free agents who signed in January, he’s older (23) and doesn’t require any projection on his body or tools. He’s already strong and filled out, with plus power and a quiet approach from the left side that should lead to high contact rates as well. He’s an average runner who’ll play a corner, and had just a 6 percent walk rate playing in NPB, both of which put some cap on his ceiling, but he also has 30-homer potential and should hit for a high batting average even if his OBP is only around the median or just below it.

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4. Romy Gonzalez, SS

Age: 25 | 6-1 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 528 in 2018

Gonzalez debuted last year in the majors at 24, ripping through the minors in just 248 games since he was drafted in the 18th round out of Miami (Florida). He barely played shortstop in college, but the White Sox tried him there in 2019 instructs and he’s been good enough to at least play there part-time. His bat also seemed to take off after he started playing at short, hitting the ball harder and coming into power; he had 24 homers and 24 steals between Double and Triple A last year in 93 games, and could replicate that in a full major-league season. There’s some swing and miss in the zone here and probably will continue to be, but he doesn’t chase that much and will take the occasional walk. He looks like a soft regular for a team without a strong shortstop, or great multi-position utility guy on a contender.

5. Andrew Dalquist, P

Age: 21 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 81 in 2019

When the White Sox took Dalquist in the 2019 draft, he was supposed to be a polished guy with good feel but not the projection to get to plus stuff. That’s turned around, as he’s come into much better stuff but walked 56 batters in 83 innings last year in Low A, and was noticeably worse from the stretch. His velocity has picked up and he has a chance to get to several above-average pitches with his fastball, curveball, and changeup, but now it’s a matter of calming down his delivery and restoring the fastball command he showed as an amateur.

6. Matt Thompson, RHP

Age: 21 | 6-3 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 45 in 2019

Thompson had trouble with his velocity in 2019 and 2020, showing wild variations from start to start, but in 2021 he was holding 93-94 more consistently with power to the fastball and better depth on his curveball as well. He’s very athletic but has a hard time repeating his delivery, so future command is a question, and still doesn’t have a great changeup for lefties. The White Sox are working with him on a slider and to try to get him to work better east-west. His results in Low A aren’t necessarily indicative of his future potential, but he does need to repeat his delivery more and get a better weapon for left-handed batters.

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7. Jake Burger, 1B

Age: 26 | 6-2 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 11 in 2017

Another member of the Players to Root For roster, Burger finally reached the majors four years after the White Sox took him in the first round, with two major leg injuries and the pandemic in the interim, so he went 1,338 days between professional games. He has plus power, probably enough for 25-plus homers if he were to play a full season, with a low OBP and adequate defense at third or solid-average defense at first. He doesn’t have a path to playing time right now in Chicago, but he could be a regular for a second-division team right now.

8. Norge Vera, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-4 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Vera was up to 97-98 as a 21-year-old in the DSL, which seems a little unfair, with an above-average changeup and depth to his breaking ball, although the latter pitch doesn’t have a lot of spin. He struck out half of the batters he faced and allowed just 2 unearned runs in 19 innings, so I think we can say he’s proven he’s ready for the next level. He showed more than enough to come over and start 2022 in Low A or even High A and to resume working as a starter.

9. Jose Rodriguez, 2B/SS

Age: 21 | 5-10 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Nicknamed “Popeye” for his sneaky pop, Rodriguez is only about 5-10 but can really hit a fastball, with an aggressive approach that works because he can put so many pitches in play. He’s a good second baseman and might be able to stick at shortstop, with a clear path to a utility middle infield role if the bat doesn’t progress. He doesn’t walk enough for a guy who’s probably going to max out in the 15-18 homer range, but even as is, with his above-average speed and some defensive versatility, he seems like a certain big leaguer.

10. Yolbert Sanchez, 2B

Age: 25 | 5-11 | 176 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

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Sanchez is an aggressive hitter who can put a lot of pitches in play, even some out of the zone, with a chance for average power. He was a shortstop when he came over from Cuba, but can’t play there as a regular, with second base his most likely destination, although he could also be a multi-position guy who at least plays second and third while filling in at shortstop in an emergency. He might be a .300/.330/.425 kind of hitter, which may not play every day but is very valuable in a high-use utility role.

11. Bryan Ramos, 3B/2B

Age: 20 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Ramos showed an impressive feel for the strike zone last year for a guy who had no pro experience other than the 2019 Arizona Rookie League season, letting him get to his power enough for 23 doubles and 13 homers. He has a wide setup without a stride, which seems to cut off some of his power upside — he can go soft on the back side and doesn’t hit the ball as consistently hard as he should given his strength. He’s had some shoulder soreness that led the White Sox to use him more at second base, but he otherwise has the glove for the hot corner. He has average hit/55 power upside and enough discipline at the plate to be a regular at either of his positions.

12. Yoelqui Cespedes, OF

Age: 25 | 5-9 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Cespedes has plus power, probably 70 raw, but his feel to hit lags well behind and we saw better pitchers exploit him in Double A and even the very hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League last year; between those two stops, he had just one homer in 178 PA, with 49 strikeouts and five walks. He’s a solid-average defender in center with what’s supposed to be a plus-plus arm, although he wasn’t throwing well when I saw him in Arizona. It’s going to come down to the bat — his recognition at the plate isn’t good enough to let him get to the power right now.

13. Jared Kelley, RHP

Age: 20 | 6-3 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 47 in 2020

Chicago’s second-round pick in 2020 had a miserable pro debut, walking 26 batters in 23 2/3 innings while missing time with a forearm strain and shoulder soreness. Kelley has shown plus-plus velocity in the past with an above-average changeup, lacking a consistent breaking ball and struggling even his senior year in high school with conditioning. He’s added a two-seamer and worked to sharpen up his slider, which is his best chance for some kind of third pitch. It’s going to come down to strength and conditioning, though, as he doesn’t have the foundation yet to maintain both his stuff and his delivery, even with what looks like a good starter’s build.

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14. Jimmy Lambert, RHP

Age: 27 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 146 in 2016

Lambert came back in 2020 from Tommy John surgery but hurt his forearm in his second outing, and was slow out of the gate in 2021, but the good news is he showed some of his best stuff ever when he returned to the majors, bumping 95-96, sitting 93 with good ride, with his slider at least flashing above-average. He’s shown a good changeup in the past as well but had trouble with it in the majors, as hitters hit it harder than any of his other pitches. If he can stay on the mound, he has back-end starter potential right now, as he’s 27 this year and we’re not waiting for anything but health from him.

15. Sean Burke, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-6 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 94 in 2021

Burke came out hot this spring for the University of Maryland, bumping 95s in his first few starts, but he started to have arm problems and saw his velocity drop until he was shut down entirely, dropping him from a possible first-round or early second-round pick to where the White Sox got him in the late third. He was healthy again this summer, with high spin rates on both of his breaking balls, although he continued to walk too many guys (13 percent in the spring, 15 percent in pro ball). He has a pretty high ceiling given the four-pitch mix and quality of at least three of those pitches, but he’s a long way from it with his current level of grade-40 control.

16. Jonathan Stiever, RHP

Age: 25 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 138 in 2018

Stiever’s stuff was down a little early in the year, and his season ended in mid-August when had surgery to repair a lat injury. He’s expected to be ready for spring training, putting the focus back on the quality of his pitches, especially his curveball. That had been his best pitch going back to 2019, but it was inconsistent in 2021, depriving him of the one real weapon he has to miss bats. His fastball was also down about a half a grade. If he gets those two pitches back after some more time off, he could be a fourth or fifth starter this year.

17. Tanner McDougal, RHP

Age: 19 | 6-5 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 155 in 2021

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The White Sox’s fifth-round pick in 2021 out of a Las Vegas high school, McDougal struck out 17 of 42 batters he faced in the ACL but underwent Tommy John surgery after instructs, taking him out until 2023. He’d seen his velocity creep up after signing and he has a very high spin rate on his curveball, nearly 3000 RPMs, so there’s reason for excitement once he gets back on the mound.

18. Cristian Mena, RHP

Age: 19 | 6-2 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Signed for just $200,000 in 2019, Mena debuted in the ACL in 2021 and did not fare well, giving up 69 hits (not nice) in 48 1/3 innings and posting a 7.82 ERA, albeit with a 27 percent strikeout rate. He’s a projection right-hander who can spin a curveball and shows some ride on his fastball, but hitters made it very clear that he has a long way to go.

19. Lenyn Sosa, SS/2B

Age: 22 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Sosa can play an average shortstop and has a little pop, but my god, is taking a pitch somehow the enemy of the proletariat? He drew just 16 walks last year in 474 PA for a 3.3 percent walk rate, the fourth-lowest rate for anyone in a full-season minor league last year. (The lowest rate belonged to Marco Hernandez, who played in Triple A for the White Sox.) Sosa doesn’t strike out much either, so there’s a little hope here, and the fact that he can play up the middle gives him a path to a major-league role if he would just … take … a … pitch.

20. Micker Adolfo, OF

Age: 25 | 6-4 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Adolfo looked like he was on the path to everyday status before a series of injuries, including Tommy John surgery, and the pandemic cost him about two full seasons’ worth of at-bats. The progress he seemed to be making in understanding the strike zone and recognizing pitches was gone in 2021, as he posted a .311 OBP with his usual big power between Double A and Triple A. He’s 25 now and looks like an up-and-down guy, although if that flash of discipline he showed in 2018 before he blew out his elbow returns, he might be a little more.


Others of note

Luis Mieses has above-average power from the left side and showed it last year against right-handed pitching, hitting .276/.321/.485 against them in both levels of A-ball. He doesn’t hit lefties much at all and is limited to an outfield corner, so his most likely outcome is a platoon outfielder, and even at that it would help if he showed some more patience. … Wilber Sanchez is a projectable shortstop with some bat speed but was overmatched in Low A and only a little better in the ACL as a 19-year-old … Right-hander Kade McClure is 6-7 and throws a ton of strikes with average-ish stuff, but he’s become more prone to hard contact as he’s moved up the ladder, with a 6.81 ERA last year in 9 Triple-A starts.

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2022 impact

Probably none. Burger could fill in at first base or DH if there’s an injury or other need, and guys like Lambert and Stiever might make starts if any of the White Sox rotation members has to miss a turn, but the major-league roster is pretty well set and none of the team’s other prospects are all that close.

The fallen

Luis Gonzalez was the team’s third-round pick in 2017 and seemed to have a breakout year in his full-season debut, hitting .307/.368/.498 at both levels of A-ball, but flopped in Double A in 2019 and played just 46 games last year before shoulder surgery ended his season. The White Sox tried to outright him off the 40-man roster, and the Giants claimed him.

Sleeper

I concede this isn’t the most informative choice, but the prospect here with the best chance to leap into the top 100 next year is probably Colás.

(Photo of Colson Montgomery: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)

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Keith Law

Keith Law is a senior baseball writer for The Athletic. He has covered the sport since 2006 and prior to that was a special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's the author of "Smart Baseball" (2017) and "The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves" (2020), both from William Morrow. Follow Keith on Twitter @keithlaw