The Nats’ system is on the way back up, but they would have moved up even more had they not been wracked by injuries — three of their top seven prospects missed significant time on the IL last year. Their 2020 draft class is off to a great start, and they have a few international free agents who got seven-figure bonuses and appear to be on the verge of breakouts in 2022.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
Note: Ages as of July 1, 2022.
1. Brady House, SS (Top 100 Ranking: No. 46)
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 11 in 2021
Nobody hit the ball harder than House did in the 2021 draft class, not from the high school ranks or the college ranks, and that’s why the Nats — who love to draft for superlatives, an approach that has served them well over the last 12 years — took him with the 11th overall pick. House is 6-foot-4, 215 pounds already, which all but guarantees a move to third base, although he’ll play shortstop in the near future; he has the cannon to play pretty much anywhere and he’s loose and athletic enough to stay on the dirt for now. It’s the incredible power that makes him an elite prospect though, not just big-fly power like Joey Gallo (not that there’s anything wrong with Joey Gallo), but consistently hard contact on everything, and to all fields as well, from his pull side all the way over to right-center. There were some concerns in the spring about how well he would hit better pitching, whether the exit velocities papered over more fundamental concerns about his bat. He played just 18 games in the Florida Man League, hitting .322/.394/.576 with a strikeout rate just under 20 percent, which is a tiny sample but at least showed him making a lot of contact with the wood bat. This year in Low A should answer that question more fully, but if he shows continued success with putting the ball in play at that level, he’ll be a top-25 prospect, a potential Aaron Judge bat over at third base.
2. Cade Cavalli, RHP (Top 100 Ranking: No. 48)
Age: 23 | 6-4 |230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 22 in 2020
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Cavalli was the Nats’ first-rounder in 2020, and showed that kind of premium stuff throughout his pro debut in 2021. He’s 94-98 as a starter, although he can see the velocity taper towards the end of his outings, with a plus slider in the upper 80s and a mid-80s changeup he uses against lefties that’s at least solid-average. Cavalli overpowered hitters at two levels before a promotion to Triple A presented him with his first real adversity, as he doesn’t have the command yet to attack hitters who can catch up to his velocity and lay off his stuff out of the zone. There were signs of trouble in Double A, where he walked 14 percent of batters, but he could get away with it by blowing guys away — fastballs up, sliders down and away to righties, changeups down to lefties who were geared up for the fastball — without locating. He also reached Triple A at the end of a long year, and had to adjust to the different baseball at that level — have I mentioned how profoundly stupid it is that we don’t use the same baseball at all levels, from the complexes to the major leagues? It’s bad enough that most amateurs hit with composite bats in the spring, but MLB has complete control of the minors now. One sport. One ball. It’s not that hard. Anyway, Cavalli’s Triple-A performance did have some mitigating factors, and he’s about as well-built for 200 innings as any prospect on this list. I’m still bullish that he’ll end up a mid-rotation starter who can carry a big workload, but the next step for him is learning to locate his stuff better. He’s a solid athlete and his delivery is very repeatable, so there’s cause to think he’ll get there.
3. Jackson Rutledge, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-8 | 245 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 17 in 2019
Rutledge was the Nats’ first-round pick in 2019, offering big velocity from a strong, 6-8 frame. His 2021 season was wrecked by multiple shoulder issues, limiting him to 36 1/3 innings in the regular season plus six appearances in the Arizona Fall League. He was 92-97 when healthy, down a grade from junior college, with a solid-average slider at 83-85 and above-average changeup in the mid-80s, the last of which is fairly new for him since the draft. He has a very short arm action with some effort to it, and his delivery makes it hard for him to get to his glove side. It’s going to come down to health — his shoulder may not be able to handle the starter’s workload, or to handle it with the kind of velocity he needs.
4. Cole Henry, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 55 in 2020
Henry, the Nats’ second-round pick in 2020, had elbow trouble that limited him to 47 innings during the regular season, although he ended the season healthy and threw well in the AFL. He’s a three-pitch guy who works with both four- and two-seam fastballs, touching 97 and sitting 94, with a plus changeup and average breaking ball, showing good command but a tendency to work too heavily to his arm side, thanks to the movement on both the two-seamer and changeup. He throws a ton of strikes, getting on top of the ball well from a high three-quarters arm slot, although he can stay open too long, further exacerbating his east-west issues. His real problem is the elbow, though: He missed time in college with a stress reaction in the joint and other elbow pain, enough that it scared some teams off taking him in the first round in 2020 despite favorable pitch characteristics, and it recurred last year. He’s a No. 2 starter if he can hold up in the role.
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5. Andry Lara, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Lara signed for $1.25 million in 2019, and the Venezuelan right-hander finally got to make his pro debut last year, pitching well in the Florida Complex League at 18 before getting two starts in Low A to end the year. Lara can show 93-96, not yet holding it deep into games, with solid spin on the breaking ball and feel for a changeup already. His arm action is easy, and he looks for all the world like a young Livan Hernandez, in body and ease of delivery. Lara tapered off at the end of the year, so he may be three-to-four years away from helping in the majors, but between the body and the current stuff he has mid-rotation upside.
6. Gerardo Carrillo, RHP
Age: 23 | 5-10 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Carrillo tops out at 100 mph, pitching in the upper 90s, with a power curveball around 80 mph, coming from a compact 5-10 frame. There’s a lot of effort in the delivery, so his below-average control — he walked 50 batters in 96 innings in Double A, working almost exclusively as a starter — isn’t likely to improve by much. He’s going to move to the bullpen but should have two plus pitches there, giving him late-game upside.
7. Roismar Quintana, OF
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Signed the same year as Lara for $820,000, Quintana suffered two hamstring tears in 2021 and played just seven games in his pro debut. He’s getting stronger and projects to plus power with very good feel to hit, superstar kind of upside, but he’ll be 19 this year with essentially no game experience in three years.
8. Yasel Antuna, OF/SS
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Antuna looked like a release candidate in June, but played well enough in the second half of the season to both salvage his prospect status and allow the Nats to move him off shortstop. Antuna can’t play shortstop, but the Nats are going to move him to the outfield in 2022, which may free him up to focus more on his hitting. He’s a switch-hitter who has some power, and last year showed real improvement in his at bats in the second half; the first-half struggles — he looked completely lost — may have been a function of him getting eight plate appearances between 2018 and the start of last year due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery, and the pandemic. I’m not completely sold on the offensive turnaround, but I’m saying there’s a chance.
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9. Joan Adon, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 242 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Adon started the year in High A and ended it by making his big-league debut on the final day of the regular season. The callup was a huge surprise, given his results and fringy offspeed stuff earlier in the year. He’s 93-96 as a starter, touching 98, with a slider that improved in 2021 and a changeup that regressed, all with fringy command that certainly could improve in time given his delivery. He’s already around 250 pounds, so we’re not waiting for stuff or projection, just the kind of improvements that come from pitching more — refining secondaries, developing command, showing more of an overall feel for attacking hitters. There are a lot of “ifs” involved, but he could be a fourth starter.
10. Armando Cruz, SS
Age: 18 | 5-10 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Cruz signed in January 2021 for $3.9 million, the same team-record bonus they gave to Antuna, and he debuted in the Dominican Summer League this past summer. He’s still physically immature at 5-10, 160, more notable now for his plus defense at shortstop, with very soft hands and a plus arm, than anything at the plate. To his credit, he made a ton of contact as a 17-year-old in the Dominican, with just a 13.7 percent strikeout rate. His swing right now is very handsy, with no use of his lower half; the Nats are working with him on that and on staying back to drive the ball more effectively, with the hope that he’ll at least get to good doubles power and 10-12 homers a year. It’s just about all projection now, with his US debut likely to tell us more about where his bat is.
11. Daylen Lile, OF
Age: 19 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 47 in 2021
Lile was the Nats’ second-round pick in 2021, a high school outfielder who is going to end up in left field because he doesn’t have the arm or speed to profile elsewhere, although the Nats saw some improved arm strength in instructs. His best tool is his bat, where he has a great knack for barreling up the ball, with more hit than power now and an approach that often has him going the other way when he might try to pull something. He could be a regular, even a good one, if the Nats get him to take some of his natural strength and convert it to more power, but he doesn’t seem to have projection left and his defensive home means he really has to mash.
12. Tim Cate, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 65 in 2018
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Cate has a plus curveball but neither of his other pitches is more than fringe-average, leading to a miserable year across the board as a starter in Double A, where he didn’t even dominate lefties. He’s 24 now and unlikely find more velocity, so a move to the bullpen is extremely likely.
13. Matt Cronin, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 123 in 2019
Cronin is 94-97 with a ton of vertical movement and high spin efficiency on the pitch and a 55 curveball, but hitters could lay off his stuff in Double A and he didn’t have the command to overcome it. He also missed a month due to injury. He has upside in relief but he can’t rely on getting high-level hitters to chase his stuff out of the zone.
14. Jake Irvin, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-6 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 131 in 2018
Irvin underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2020, so he was only back for instructs in 2021, where he was working in the mid-90s again with a plus curveball. We haven’t seen him pitch since 2019, but he could come very quickly if his command is intact, with starter size and stuff.
15. Lucius Fox, SS
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 185 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Acquired off waivers from the Royals in November, Fox is a premium defender at shortstop with plus speed and a solid understanding of the strike zone for a 23-year-old, just lacking the strength needed to turn all his contact into more production. It’s unlikely at this point that he’s going to find it, but his defense and contact skills would make him a valuable utility infielder as soon as this year.
16. Jeremy De la Rosa, OF
Age: 20 | 5-11 | 160 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
De la Rosa was overmatched in Low A last year, hitting .209/.279/.316 with a 34 percent strikeout rate, but he’s also exactly the kind of player that the elimination of short-season baseball hurts the most — he would have spent the year in Auburn, in the old New York-Penn League, facing a more appropriate level of competition for a 19-year-old with little pro experience and an immature approach. He’s a centerfielder with a loose, easy swing, and showed last year he could get his lower half involved, dropping the bat head to drive a pitch. It’s the approach, and the inexperience that drove it, but there’s still some promise here.
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17. Sammy Infante, 2B/SS
Age: 21 | 6-1 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 71 in 2020
Infante was the Nats’ third pick in 2020, taken with a pick they received as compensation for the loss of Anthony Rendon. They signed Infante away from a commitment to the University of Miami (Florida). He’s already moved mostly to second base, and his hit tool has been less advanced than expected out of the draft, with a .215/.329/.364 line and a 30 percent strikeout rate as a 20-year-old in the FCL. He was a bit of a reach anyway at pick 71, and now looks like he has a utility infielder ceiling.
18. Aldo Ramirez, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 191 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Ramirez came from the Red Sox in the trade for Kyle Schwarber, but was dealing with an elbow issue at the time of the deal, tried to rehab for the Nats, but was shut down again with the same problem. He has no structural damage, and if healthy, has a three-pitch mix with advanced feel, good angle on the fastball, and above-average spin on a downer curveball. His arm is extremely late relative to his front leg, however, which is a very bad trait for a potential starter and might be part of why his elbow barked.
19. Evan Lee, LHP
Age: 25 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 461 in 2018
Lee misses a shocking number of bats with mostly average stuff, 90-93 with a big vertical curveball and a short cutter-like slider, with a 30 percent strikeout rate in High A as a 24-year-old who probably belonged in Double A by year-end. It’s the kind of arsenal whose owner has to prove it can work at every level to project Lee as anything above a fifth starter.
20. Mitchell Parker, LHP
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 225 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 153 in 2020
Parker, drafted in the fifth round out of a Texas two-year college in 2020, misses a lot of bats with his four-pitch mix, working at 88-91 with both a splitter and a changeup. His over-the-top slot makes it more likely he moves to a relief role because it inhibits his command, but with several weapons to generate whiffs he could be far more valuable in shorter bursts.
Others of note
Shortstop/second baseman Jordy Barley has incredible tools — plus run, plus arm, plus raw power at least to his pull side, with bat speed and quick-twitch — but in four years in pro ball he hasn’t developed any sort of approach or plan at the plate. It’s go up there and swing hard, without consistency to his swing path or rhythm as a hitter, so the Nats have their work cut out for them. If they can make adjustments the Padres couldn’t, Barley could be a regular or better, but his probability is 5 percent or even less. … Lefty Dustin Saenz was their fourth-round pick out of Texas A&M, where he became a full-time starter for the first time in 2021; he’s been 94-95 with a solid-average slider and showed promise to his little-used changeup in pro ball. He’s a strike-thrower and could end up a fifth or fourth starter depending on the development of his two offspeed pitches. … Right-hander Mason Denaburg had Tommy John surgery and missed all of last year, so his entire pro career comprises 20 1/3 innings thrown in 2019. The Nats’ first-round pick in 2018 has also dealt with bicep tendonitis and had trouble showing the same velocity he did early in his senior year of high school. … T.J. White was their 2021 fifth-rounder, an outfielder from a South Carolina high school who has plus power with a furious swing, hitting four homers in 15 games in the Florida Complex League in his debut, but he has to calm down his overall approach, including pitch selection. He’s a switch-hitter who’s limited to outfield corners but was young for his class, turning 18 two weeks after the 2021 draft. … Branden Boissiere, their 2021 third-round pick out of the University of Arizona, has an extra outfielder ceiling unless he can find a way to hit for at least a full grade more power; he strikes out too much to be a high-average guy, but lacks the power to play an outfield corner. … Right-hander Zach Brzykcy signed in October 2020 as an undrafted free agent and went right to High A for his pro debut last year. He struck out 33 percent of batters as a reliever with a 9 percent walk rate and five homers allowed in 58 innings. He’s 93-94 with a low-80s breaking ball, and could be a solid middle relief prospect who goes no more than 1-2 innings an outing. … Dominican lefty Jose Ferrer works in the mid-90s in relief with a hard cutter/slider, using it to get left- and right-handed batters out. He pitched in the FCL last year as a 21-year-old but with this stuff should be moved quickly to face better competition, although there’s always a return to Broadway if pitching doesn’t work out.
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2022 impact
Cavalli should be in the majors for at least part of this year, although the Nats have enough starters for him to return to Triple A to start the season. Keibert Ruiz just barely lost his eligibility for this list, but he is likely to be their primary catcher this year.
The fallen
Lefty Seth Romero is still rookie-eligible, even though he’s about to turn 26, but between an endless series of injuries and at least one team suspension, he has barely pitched since the Nats took him in the first round in 2017. He made 11 starts in the minors last year, throwing 35 2/3 innings, striking out a third of batters he faced, and Washington still declined to recall him.
Sleeper
Lara should be on Low-A Fredericksburg’s Opening Day roster — what a turnaround that will be from the team that lost its first 15 games last year — and just needs to hold his stuff better over the course of the season.
(Photo of Brady House: Courtesy of Doug Bower, Buford Wolves Baseball)
