You could just write “The Angels need pitching” in a Word macro and set it on an infinite loop, because it’s been true for a decade and multiple people have been unable to solve the problem for the team, which means it has had the best player in baseball history for the past decade, plus the probable American League MVP right now, and still didn’t sniff contention in 2021. So for the Angels to sign Noah Syndergaard, who has pitched like an ace in the past and certainly has No. 1 starter upside, makes sense on its face.
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Syndergaard has been gone long enough that it’s easy to overlook the pitcher he once was. In his first four seasons, 2015 through 2018, he threw 518 innings with a 2.93 ERA and 2.66 FIP, good for 12 rWAR, despite making just seven starts in 2017 because of injury. His slider took a step backward in 2019, and he threw it less often, which contributed to his worst year in the majors to that point, a season when he made every start but led the National League in earned runs allowed. There was some reason to expect a bounce back in 2020, as there were some fluky results in his stat line beyond the deterioration in his slider, but he blew out his elbow that March and didn’t see the majors again until making two brief appearances at the very end of 2021. Those were outings in which he was throwing the equivalent of bullpens in actual games, with no breaking balls and probably 80 to 90 percent effort. His return was delayed by elbow soreness this past May, but he’s supposed to be healthy and ready to go for 2022, and he should be able to give the Angels 1.5 to 2 wins of value.
I just don’t understand the logic of giving Syndergaard a one-year deal, and surrendering a draft pick for it, when he is far more likely to be worth the investment in 2023 than in 2022, even if we’re only talking about his potential workload. Maybe Syndergaard will be able to handle 30 starts and 170 innings in 2022, but that seems rather optimistic when he hasn’t made a proper start at any level of baseball in two years and his last healthy season was also his least effective one.
But beyond the question of giving a one-year deal to a player whose best years are probably more than 12 months away, this contract creates as extreme a case of misaligned incentives as you can possibly find. The Angels have Syndergaard’s services for one year, a year during which, once again, they will try to get to the playoffs with two of the best players in baseball. There is immense pressure on this team to win, and doing so will likely require that the Angels squeeze every drop of value they can from Syndergaard and any other pitcher on their staff capable of producing even league-average results.
Syndergaard, however, does not have the same incentives: He wants to pitch well enough to get a multiyear contract next winter, but he also needs to maximize his odds of staying healthy through the end of the season. Doing that will require moderating his workload, particularly at a time in the calendar when the team will need him most if it is contending. That assumes he doesn’t have any setbacks that lead to skipped starts or injured-list stints earlier in the year, which would be unsurprising for a pitcher in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. But if he’s able to take the ball every fifth or sixth day for the first four months, he and his camp will have to weigh the benefits of continuing to pitch as a starter on schedule against the risk of fatigue, injury or just reduced stuff down the stretch, which might drop his perceived value to clubs next winter.
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The Mets, meanwhile, might have mixed feelings about seeing Syndergaard reject their qualifying offer after they’d invested time and money in rehabbing him from the surgery, but they do get another draft pick as compensation for his departure. Add that to the extra pick they’ll get for not signing Kumar Rocker in the 2021 draft, and they could end up with one of the largest bonus pools of any team this winter — and that’s before we know if Michael Conforto will reject the qualifying offer or return. (I think he should accept it, go have a typical Conforto year for the Mets, then go get a five- or six-year deal next winter.) The Mets should look for a back-end starter to replace the innings they might have gotten from Thor, but this isn’t the worst outcome for the team, either.
(Photo: Kathy Willens / Associated Press)
