We’re about six and a half weeks away from the MLB Draft, which would be early for a realistic mock draft in past years, but we’re also already into the Division 1 conference tournaments, with maybe half of the country’s high school baseball schedules already done for the year, so from here on out, it’s going to be a lot more talk than action. The players have played, and with few exceptions, we won’t see most of them again on any fields — they’ll do private workouts for teams, but won’t play in any games we can watch as fans or outsiders.
Advertisement
This is my first mock of 2021, with at least three more to come before we get to the draft on July 11. As always, this is based on what I’m hearing from scouts, executives, and other industry sources, as well as my own reading of specific teams’ preferences and tendencies in the draft. It’s not a ranking — that’s here — and it’s not a commentary on the players. This is just my best guess as to how the first 30 picks, which comprises the first round and the one compensatory pick (Cincinnati, for losing Trevor Bauer) afterwards, would unfold if the draft were held right now.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Still wide open here — Davis, Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, and, with decreased likelihood right now, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. That’s the rough order of probability of those five names for pick 1-1 right now.
2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX)
I hear two conflicting rumors on Texas. One is that they want someone who can get to the majors fast — Davis or one of the two Vandy arms. The other is that they can’t pass on Lawlar, a local kid with some exceptional tools, and whom team president Jon Daniels is said to have seen in person multiple times.
3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School
I’ve heard Mayer is their main target, and if he’s gone, they could go with the top high school pitcher in the draft, Jackson Jobe.
4. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Red Sox seem to be on Rocker, Leiter, and Davis, and seem extremely likely to get one of them — or perhaps even have a choice among them.
5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School
The current wisdom is that Baltimore will look to cut a deal here that saves them a substantial amount of money, probably a million or more, after they signed their first pick in 2019, Heston Kjerstad, for $2.5 million below slot. They’ve been linked to Brady House, but he has no reason to take that kind of haircut here, since he’s in every mix from here on down.
Advertisement
6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
They’d love Lawlar, and I would say there’s a non-zero chance he gets here; if Texas takes Rocker or Leiter and Boston takes the other, that probably pushes Lawlar here, with Baltimore likely going under slot.
7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School
House or Jobe here, most likely, with House as their preference. I’ve heard Jobe with them a few times, although it surprises me because the Royals seemed to have abandoned high school pitching up top after the four prep arms they took in the first two rounds in 2014-15 yielded just 0.1 WAR and, so far, only three big-league appearances.
8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School
Colorado takes athletes, and Jobe is a great athlete himself whose father is a longtime professional golfer. I can’t really argue with targeting pitching here, either, although they’re also linked to House.
9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS
The Angels might have a new GM but they’re still linked to the kind of high-ceiling athletes they’ve targeted since Matt Swanson took over as scouting director, including Watson, Bubba Chandler, Jay Allen (probably for the second round), and Jobe.
10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
Before he broke his hand McLain had the best stretch of performances on both sides of the ball that he’d had since matriculating at UCLA, pushing himself into the top half of the round, perhaps even a little higher than this. The Mets seem to be linked more to college players here, like McLain and Boston College’s Sal Frelick, and would go high school with later picks.
11. Washington Nationals: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
I may be overthinking this a little, but I find it hard to believe Mike Rizzo would pass on a starter who can throw 102 mph with a slider that grades out as an 80 in at least some outings. This could be Jobe’s floor, assuming that Mason Denaburg’s injury history hasn’t scared them off high school arms.
Advertisement
12. Seattle Mariners: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
McLain’s floor might be here; you could flip him and Frelick and change nothing else, if that sort of thing makes you happy. I could see Colton Cowser here too.
13. Philadelphia Phillies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land (PA) High School
I’m not sure if this is real, or just because Montgomery is semi-local to the Phillies (although Lonnie White is more local and I don’t hear his name with the Phils). I’ve also heard them as one of a few clubs on Vandy commit Jonathan Vastine as a possible second-round overpay.
14. San Francisco Giants: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
The Giants have taken college players in the first three rounds of each of the last three drafts, and while they’re clearly open to taking high school players (more likely hitters if they do), they’re probably going to have one of Cowser, Frelick, and McLain available here.
15. Milwaukee Brewers: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Wicks has been just fair in Big 12 conference play, with a 4.47 ERA and more hard contact than scouts anticipated, but the consensus is still that he’ll be a solid mid-rotation starter and get there quickly. The Brewers have done pretty well with developing college pitchers, too, so this fit works from a couple of angles.
16. Miami Marlins: Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee (GA) High School
Chandler is committed to Clemson to play quarterback but nobody thinks he’s going to get to South Carolina except as a tourist. He’s in play as high as the Angels and for a number of teams below here, mostly as a pitcher but with a minority of teams liking his bat.
17. Cincinnati Reds: Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham
Mikulski had a brief dip for a few weeks but has been strong down the stretch, and would allow the Reds to go below slot here (he’s a senior) and then go well over at their two extra picks, 30 and 35.
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Bednar has one of the best sliders in the draft class and has thrown a ton of strikes for the Bulldogs this year, finishing third in the regular season in the SEC in strikeouts. The Cardinals have shown they’ll consider pretty much any type of player and aren’t afraid to go for upside, which would make them one of the teams to watch on players like Chandler, Will Taylor, and Joshua Baez too.
Advertisement
19. Toronto Blue Jays: Mike McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
The Blue Jays have shown they’re willing to go college or high school, but I don’t think they’ll go high school pitcher in the first round. McGreevy is a “safe” pick as college arms go, with some of the best command in the draft and probably the best control, with just 10 walks this year in 88 2/3 innings, never more than two walks in any single start.
20. New York Yankees: Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep (NJ)
Solometo has really come on as the spring has progressed, missing a ton of bats and pounding the strike zone, with the Yankees one of the teams most visible at his starts.
21. Chicago Cubs: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (SC) HS
Taylor is the biggest wild card in the draft — he still hasn’t really indicated whether he wants to play baseball or would rather go to Clemson to play football (as a six-foot, 175-pound receiver?), and also isn’t working with an adviser yet, which is very unusual. If he does say “let’s do that baseball,” he’s going to get $2 million-plus, and the Cubs have been strongly linked to him.
22. Chicago White Sox: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland (NJ) HS
The White Sox do things their own particular way, and have never been worried about pitchers with tough deliveries if the stuff is there, so while Petty has a violent delivery and only two pitches, you can’t argue against his velocity (up to 101 at times, 94-99 when I saw him). I’ve also heard them on Indiana prep infielder Colson Montgomery.
23. Cleveland: Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter (MA) Southfield School
Cleveland has limited its scouts’ travel this year, so we’ll see if that impacts their draft philosophy (or quality), but they’ve gone hard for upside in the last several first rounds, which would include guys like Baez, Petty, Benny Montgomery, and Solometo.
24. Atlanta: Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP/SS, Nebraska
Schwellenbach is a reliever and shortstop for the Huskers who’ll be a pitcher in pro ball, with the weapons and delivery to move to a starter’s role, and Atlanta’s been linked to him for a while now.
25. Oakland A’s: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Just a hunch here. Maybe Hoglund goes before this, but a big part of his value before he blew out his elbow was that he looked like he’d move extremely quickly to the majors — he had some of the best command in the draft, and his stuff was good enough to get there, without much projection if any. After TJ, he’s not a fast-to-the-majors guy anymore, and that takes a huge bite out of his value. The A’s, meanwhile, could deliver a two-hour TED Talk on pitching prospects and Tommy John surgery; I see four guys on their current staff, including the IL, who were first-round picks and had Tommy John surgery before reaching the majors.
Advertisement
26. Minnesota Twins: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville (NY) High School
Minnesota likes guys who make really hard contact, and Mack, whose season just started two weeks ago, is showing even more power than he did last summer. I’m really in “educated guess” territory in this part of the mock, though.
27. San Diego Padres: Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic (FL) High School
Allen is probably going in the 25-40 range, helped by the absence of a lot of high-upside, athletic high school outfielders in this draft. AJ Preller and his hat have been spotted at a lot of high school games recently, including one of Connecticut lefty Frank Mozzicato’s four straight no-hitters, but I’m not sure they’d take him at 27.
28. Tampa Bay Rays: Wes Kath, SS/3B, Desert Mountain (AZ) HS
Kath has hit well this spring and shown the potential for plus power, getting a regular stream of scouts who live there or are in town to scout extended spring training games.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Cusick has a great arm, up to 100 mph, and he’s come a long way since arriving in Winston-Salem, but his delivery, command, and breaking ball are all inconsistent. Maybe the Dodgers would target Hoglund or Hill, but Cusick is the sort of upside, “we have the technology” sort of pick they’ve made, and made well, repeatedly since Billy Gasparino became their scouting director.
30. Cincinnati Reds: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Preparatory (MS) High School
Bruns has some of the best stuff in the high school class, but his control was so bad last summer that he had a long way to go to get back up into first-round territory. The Reds showed two years ago they’ll swing for the fences when they have extra picks, and Bruns’ upside is as good as that of any prep arm this year.
(Top photo of Davis: AP Photo / Ben McKeown)
