The Red Sox are rebuilding, as peculiar as that sounds, but the system is clearly on the upswing, boosted by some strong player development work and a couple of productive trades. Their drafts have been very productive the last half-dozen years, which made it all the more surprising to see them change their approach so dramatically in 2020, taking two high school position players well above how the industry perceived them with their first two picks.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season. (This list was made before the return for Andrew Benintendi was known, but will be updated if needed.)
1. Jeter Downs, 2B/SS (Top 100 rank: No. 56)
From the Top 100: Downs has been traded twice now, with the second deal bringing him to the Red Sox as part of the return for Mookie Betts, just in time for the second base job in Boston to open up right in front of him. Downs is an advanced hitter for his age, making hard contact with a line drive-oriented swing that helped him lead the High-A California League in doubles in 2019 while he had the league’s 11th-lowest strikeout rate. He’s played primarily shortstop, but he’s going to end up at another position, most likely second base, where he should be above average. He may not have the huge upside of other prospects on this list, but he has a pretty high floor as someone who’ll hit around .300 with a ton of doubles, a strong OBP, and some added value on defense at second or third.
2. Triston Casas, 1B (Top 100 rank: No. 87)
From the Top 100: Casas was the Red Sox’s first-round pick in 2018 based on their belief that he was an advanced bat with power potential who would play even at first base. Casas lets the ball travel deep at the plate, helping him control the zone, and worked on handling hard stuff on the inner half over the summer at Boston’s alternate site. When he rotates his hips, he can show big power, especially to his pull side, although he showed vulnerability on fastballs up in the zone in 2019, something he worked on over the summer. He has a clear two-strike approach, unusual for a teenage hitter and even more so for hitters today, where he gets very wide and shortens up to put the ball in play at the expense of some power. The Red Sox have tinkered with him at third base, but that’s a longshot to be more than an emergency option. If his bat is what they think it is, and he can continue to hit for power and draw walks as he did in 2019, he’ll profile just fine over at first.
3. Jarren Duran, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 93)
From the Top 100: Duran changed his swing in 2020 to drive the ball more in the air, addressing what I thought was the big issue with his outlook: He struck out too much for a guy who wasn’t hitting for power or making consistent hard contact. Duran is a 70 runner who is a plus defender in center and might end up a 70 out there as well, while at the plate he has been a good singles hitter so far in pro ball, but with an isolated power of just .105 in 2019 between High A and Double A at age 22. Now that he’s lofting the ball more, and has gotten stronger, he should at least see double digits in homers and more doubles (and triples, thanks to his speed) that will balance out any swing and miss he’s likely to have. We’ll see how well it carries over into games, but it’s enough to change his outlook from someone outside the top 100 in 2020 to on the list now.
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4. Jay Groome, LHP
Groome did look great at Boston’s alternate site last year, sitting 92 mph and missing bats with it again, although his curveball isn’t back to the plus-plus pitch it was before Tommy John surgery. He’s healthy and has worked to improve his changeup as well; if he’s even working with a grade 60 curveball (rather than the 70 it was in high school), he’s at least a fourth starter, with a lot of upside beyond that if the curve returns and/or his velocity ticks up.
5. Thad Ward, RHP
Ward was Boston’s fifth-round pick in 2018 and has gotten stronger since signing, working now in the 92-96 mph range with some sink on the fastball, an out pitch in his slider and a solid changeup. He offers a little less upside than some of the pitchers below him on the list, but a higher floor as a back-end starter.
6. Gilberto Jimenez, OF
Jimenez is an 80 runner and switch-hitter who’s built like a running back, and so far he’s shown great contact skills. He’ll need to learn to work the count more, as right now he can put so many pitches in play and let his speed take over that he might be losing out on some power. He’s a plus defender in center as well.
7. Bryan Mata, RHP
Mata has been up to 98 mph from a low arm slot that is extremely tough for right-handed hitters to pick up, helping him reach Double A at age 20 in 2019. The delivery gives lefties a good look at the ball, and it’s a tough arm action for him to repeat as a starter, so while he’s going to continue to develop in the rotation, I see a lot of reliever risk here.
8. Bobby Dalbec, 3B
Dalbec showed the world his plus-plus power and strong throwing arm, with eight homers in 92 plate appearances in the majors last year, along with a 42 percent strikeout rate; when he swung at offspeed stuff last year, he missed more than half the time. He can’t be a regular or even much of a part-time player with those kinds of whiff rates, but if somehow he cuts that to Joey Gallo levels, he has the power and patience to stick.
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9. Tanner Houck, RHP
Houck dominated right-handed batters in his three major-league appearances in 2019, striking them out in 39 percent of their PA (16 of 41), with less success against lefties even though Boston wisely made him a twice-through-the-order guy. His slider is an out pitch for righties, but he didn’t even show a changeup in the majors and he needs something to get lefties out to be a starter.
10. Chris Murphy, LHP
Murphy has been up to 96 mph with an above-average curveball and feel for a changeup, improving his control significantly after the Red Sox took him in the sixth round in 2019. He doesn’t have a plus pitch but throws everything for strikes now and could move quickly to the majors, with back-end starter potential.
11. Noah Song, RHP
Song is stuck in a holding pattern right now, with another year on his commitment to the Navy before he might be allowed to resume his baseball career. If he were ready to pitch now, and we’d seen him somewhere in 2020 like instructs, he’d be in the top five here.
12. Nick Yorke, IF
Yorke was Boston’s first-round pick in 2020, the only player taken in that round who wasn’t on my predraft top 100 ranking, based on their scouts’ belief that he’ll have a plus hit tool. He does have a very good swing, geared more toward contact than power, and will probably end up a competent defender at second rather than shortstop.
13. Matthew Lugo, SS
The Red Sox took Lugo in the second round in 2019, a good value pick after he struggled in a major tournament before the draft. He has plus power potential, with a sound swing, and the tools to remain a shortstop, including above-average speed. He needs at-bats, both to develop and to show where he is with the bat right now.
14. Cam Cannon, IF
Cannon was their first pick in 2019, also in the second round but ahead of Lugo, with a history of hitting but trouble with the adjustment to pro ball and wood bats that summer after he signed. He’s going to have to work to find a position, with second base his best option in the infield.
15. Andrew Politi, RHP
Politi was Boston’s 15th-round pick in 2018, a senior signed out of Seton Hall, but his stuff picked up over the last two years and he’s now showing mid-90s velocity with a curveball and cutter — even as he moved from a relief role to the rotation. He needs better control and command, and he’s on the smaller side for a starter, but there’s some starter upside here.
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16. Eduard Bazardo, RHP
Bazardo was first signed in 2014 out of Venezuela and hadn’t shown much progress with his stuff until last year, when he was pumping 94-95 mph in instructional league with a hammer curveball. He’s always had good control, walking just eight in 77 2/3 innings as a starter in 2018 before Boston moved him to the bullpen in 2019. He might just stay in relief for now, but the Sox could try him in the rotation to see how the new velocity holds up.
17. Jeisson Rosario, OF
Rosario was one of the two prospects who came over from the Padres in exchange for Mitch Moreland last August. He’s a plus defender in center with an excellent eye at the plate but grade 35 power, which he has to improve to be more than an emergency call-up. He doesn’t have to gain that much power or just plain strength to get there.
18. Connor Wong, C/IF
Wong is a very useful utility player prospect because he can be a backup catcher while also filling in at second or third, along with above-average power but a below-average hit tool. He came to Boston with Jeter Downs and Alex Verdugo in the much-maligned Mookie Betts deal, which will probably never look fair given what Betts is but will probably give Boston three big leaguers, two of them everyday guys.
19. Nick Decker, 3B
Decker has plus power thanks to tremendous bat speed, and a plus arm, but he’s not a very advanced hitter and, like Lugo, missed out on at-bats he could have used in 2020 to try to develop as a hitter, both to adjust to better pitching and to learn to moderate his all-out swing in certain counts or situations.
20. Blaze Jordan, 1B
Jordan was more famous than good in high school, with huge power in BP but a game swing that was all hands and produced contact without the home runs. The Red Sox could find something here with a swing overhaul, but the history of high school hitters taken out of Mississippi is awful.
Others of note
Hudson Potts came with Rosario in the Mitch Moreland trade, a former first-rounder who has power and a good arm but really struggled with velocity inside when he got to Double A. … Connor Seabold came over in the trade that sent Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree to the Phillies, a potential back-end starter prospect who touches 95 mph but doesn’t have an above-average second pitch, … Right-hander Chih-Jung Liu has hit 100 mph before and signed with Boston when he hit 98 mph in a tournament in Taiwan in 2019, which came after he took two years off from pitching to recover from overuse as a teenager, something I would like to think is a potentially positive sign for pitchers who had to take 2020 off from throwing due to the pandemic. Liu has a potentially above-average changeup but needs to improve or change his breaking ball.
2021 impact
Houck could start the year in the rotation, or in some sort of swing/tandem role. Dalbec might end up on the big-league roster at third or first, depending on what Boston wants to do with Rafael Devers. Ward could get a call-up in the summer, assuming we have something of a minor-league season to let him build up some innings.
Sleeper
My sleeper last year was Lugo; if he shows enough with the hit tool in the minors this year he’ll be among their top five prospects. Politi could make a jump this year, at least into their top 10 if not the global list.
(Photo of Jeter Downs: Kim Klement / USA Today)
