The Yankees have arms galore, in no small part because they seem to coax more velocity out of young pitchers than any other organization. They also have a wave of Latin American prospects coming, which is slightly ironic given their $17 million spending spree on the international free-agent market in 2014 yielded no prospects at all, with most of those players failing to reach Double A. They’ve done more with less and hit on a few high draft picks, too. One potential area of weakness is power bats, as they’ve focused on guys who play up the middle and are more focused on the hit tool than power.
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To qualify for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the rookie of the year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into the season.
1. Clarke Schmidt, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 48)
From the Top 100: Schmidt made three appearances for the Yankees in 2020, two in relief and one as a starter, where he was uncharacteristically wild, but his pitch mix in short stints isn’t a good reflection of how he’s going to pitch as a starter. Schmidt’s slider is plus, with huge tilt and an average spin rate in the majors of over 3,000 rpm, and he gets whiffs on it out of the zone, but in his major-league time he didn’t miss any bats with his four-seamer or sinker in the zone. The four-seamer is 92-95 with a high spin rate, but Schmidt didn’t command the pitch in the majors, missing middle-middle or above the zone too much. That was less of an issue in the minors, where he worked as a starter on a regular schedule. With a changeup and sinker, he has a legit four-pitch mix and a couple of weapons that should miss bats, and has a delivery that is far cleaner than it was in college before he blew out his elbow. I think he just needs a regular routine and pitching schedule to be a mid-rotation or better starter.
2. Jasson Dominguez, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 66)
From the Top 100: Dominguez was the top prospect in the 2019 international free agent class and received a $5 million bonus from the Yankees, who seemed ready to move him aggressively until the pandemic hit. Dominguez had an extremely mature body for a 16-year-old when he signed, and even though he won’t turn 18 until early February, he already is more filled out than many players two or three years his senior. He’s big, but still retains explosiveness in his movements, including plus running speed and great hand acceleration at the plate, leading to elite exit velocities. We haven’t seen Dominguez in games yet, so any take on his readiness to hit pro pitching (and work the count, pick up spin, and so on) is just a guess, but his physical tools point to an elite bat who right now can stay in center field.
3. Deivi García, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 81)
From the Top 100: The little right-hander who could, García brought his four-pitch mix and very deceptive delivery to the majors last year and continued to miss bats with all three of his secondary pitches, even though it just doesn’t look like he should be as good as he is. García will pitch at 90-95 with his four-seamer, which doesn’t have great spin but does drop less than the typical four-seamer does, and hitters cut right through it like he’s throwing 100. They don’t pick up the ball well out of his hand; his fastball, changeup and slider all come from about the same slot, but go to different parts of the zone in addition to being different pitches entirely, and he gets a lot of swings and misses on all three secondary offerings (he does raise his arm slot just slightly to get on top of the curveball). He is on the small side for a starter, listed at 163 pounds, and when hitters do connect with his four-seamer they tend to hit it hard, but maybe he’s just a great twice-through-the-order starter or a “five and dive” guy who can regularly strike out seven or eight batters in those five innings of work.
4. Luis Medina, RHP (Just missed)
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From the just-missed list: Medina is a great athlete with an incredible arm and a delivery he should be able to repeat, but his problem has always been throwing strikes. I’ve seen him hit 99 in the same start where he couldn’t get out of the second inning because he was so wild, and he has two plus or better secondary pitches too. In 2018, he walked 46 batters and threw 12 wild pitches in 36 innings for short-season Pulaski. In 2019, he improved but still walked 70 guys with 27 wild pitches in 103.2 innings, hitting nine batters for good measure, although he looked like he might have turned a corner late in the season, walking only six guys in his last four starts, covering 22.2 innings, with only two wild pitches. And now we have a little more cause for optimism, as Medina was the pitcher of the year in the Puerto Rican Winter League after he made four starts for Mayaguez, throwing 16.2 innings, walking six batters and striking out 32, more than half of the batters he faced. Four starts here, four starts there, none of this is a big sample, but it’s better than he’s pitched anywhere else in pro ball, and if he can build on this and put together a full season, or even most of one, with this level of control, he’s a top 50 prospect at worst.
5. Oswald Peraza, SS
Peraza signed in 2016 for just $175,000 but has surpassed the bigger-bonus guys the Yankees signed during their splurge in the international free-agent market in 2014. He’s a very athletic shortstop with plus speed and a solid approach so far despite being young for his levels. He’s growing into his frame and could get to average or slightly above-average power, which would certainly make him a top 100 prospect if he gets to show that in games at some point.
6. Luis Gil, RHP
Gil is probably a reliever in the end but will continue to develop as a starter for now, with a dominant fastball in the upper 90s that could miss bats the way Chad Green’s does. He has the body to start and could end up in that role if his secondary pitches come along.
7. Austin Wells, C
The Yankees’ first-round pick in 2020 was a bat-first college guy with the potential for a plus hit tool. He’s a pull-oriented guy, but there’s nothing in the swing that says he can’t use the whole field. He’s probably not a catcher in the long run; if scouts thought he had even a 20 percent chance to catch, I would have put him in the top 100.
8. Yoendrys Gomez, RHP
Gomez sat at 94-95 mph as a starter for most of 2019, touching 98 mph with high spin, before wearing down in August, showing an average curveball and the potential for an average changeup as well. His delivery works well, and I like him as a potential three-pitch starter with no worse than average command.
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9. Alexander Vizcaino, RHP
Vizcaino has been up to 99 mph with a plus-plus changeup, and the Yankees added him to the 40-man roster this winter. He’s a starter for now but could probably pitch in the big-league pen right now if need be. To remain a starter, he needs to find or develop a better breaking ball than his present slurvy slider.
10. T.J. Sikkema, LHP
Sikkema has barely pitched since the Yankees made him their competitive balance round selection in 2019, as they limited his work after he signed that summer, then had him pitch only a little in spring training last year, so he spent some time in the spring as a DoorDash driver while waiting to see if there’d be a season. He did work on his conditioning, at least, but we have to see him in games. Before the draft he showed three pitches, up to 96 mph with a slider and changeup, showing excellent feel to pitch, working to both sides of the plate and changing speeds and even sometimes his arm slot to get hitters out.
11. Ezequiel Duran, 2B
Duran is listed at just 5-foot-11, but the Dominican infielder, who signed for only $10,000 in 2017, produces very high exit velocities and legitimate line-drive power in games. There are swing-and-miss issues here, and his fringy arm might limit him to second base despite speed and hands that would play at short. The Yankees praise his work ethic, and he should get the most out of his tools, so he’s one to watch once we get these guys back on the field. A modest cut to his strikeout rate would mean a substantial boost to his long-term projections, making him a potential regular at second or above-average regular at short.
12. Estevan Florial, OF
Florial has been all sizzle and no steak — he has tools to rival guys in the global top 50, but he doesn’t recognize pitches and has had huge swing-and-miss issues, exacerbated by some unfortunate injuries to his hand and wrist in 2018-19. He has plus-plus power, can run and defend and has bat speed, but he’s going to have to at least show better pitch identification to get to any of those tools.
13. Kevin Alcantara, OF
Alcantara is still just 18 years old — he won’t turn 19 until July — but has been in the system for two and a half years, debuting in pro ball in 2019 and playing in the Yankees’ Dominican instructs last fall. He’s 6-foot-5 and has long strides to give him plus speed once underway, with good reads in center field to project as an above-average to plus defender there in time. His bat is behind, although his swing is reasonably short for someone with levers this long.
14. Albert Abreu, RHP
Abreu threw about 20 innings in 2020 between two major-league appearances and five starts in winter ball. He averaged 96.4 mph on his four-seamer in the big leagues but threw so many of them in the heart of the zone that hitters hammered the pitch, and he barely even used the curveball that at least used to be his best off-speed pitch.
15. Antonio Gomez, C
Gomez is a very good catch-and-throw prospect who impressed the Yankees in their Dominican instructs program this fall. He has strong hands and good rotation in his swing for future power as well, but the 19-year-old has just 57 pro at-bats, all in 2019, in his career because of the shutdown.
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16. Ken Waldichuk, LHP
The Yankees’ fifth-round pick in 2019, Waldichuk went from 90-91 mph that year to touching 98 mph in workouts this past summer, and he already had a solid-average curveball and above-average control. His delivery had effort to it in college, but with the velocity spike he should at least go out as a starter and see if he can sustain that.
17. Anthony Seigler, C
Seigler has been snakebitten since the Yanks took him in the first round in 2018, suffering a concussion, a fractured kneecap and strains to a hamstring and a quad muscle in just two-plus years in pro ball. He’s a switch-hitter and was a switch-pitcher in high school, with a strong arm and above-average receiving skills, but he hasn’t hit at all in pro ball and needs at-bats if he’s going to develop as a hitter.
18. Anthony Volpe, SS
Volpe was the Yankees’ first-round pick in 2019, despite a relative lack of tools on either side of the ball, based on their belief that he will end up with a plus hit tool because of his intelligence and instincts. He’s not a shortstop and doesn’t project to power or plus speed, so he has to hit, but like so many other prospects drafted or signed in the last year or two, he needs at-bats.
19. Josh Smith, SS
Smith was the Yanks’ second-round pick in 2019, with solid-average tools all around but nothing plus, although he did hit well as a junior at LSU and in Staten Island after the draft. If he stays at shortstop, he probably has a utility infielder floor.
20. Beck Way, RHP
Way is a projectable, athletic right-handed starter who was heading to LSU from junior college had the Yankees not signed him as their fourth-round pick. He has good deception in his delivery and projects to have several solid-average offerings as he fills out. Given the Yankees’ history of helping pitchers add velocity, he’s a name to watch.
Others of note
Right-handers Hayden Wesneski and Daniel Bies (who clocks in at a giant 6-foot-9, 245 pounds) have hit 100 mph in shorter outings, with Wesneski doing so in short-season after he was the Yankees’ sixth-round pick in 2019. … Trevor Hauver was their third-round pick in 2020, and the Yankees plan to convert the Arizona State outfielder to second base. His bat would profile there, but he’s a long shot to be able to play the keystone regularly. … Everson Pereira, their $1.5 million bonus baby in 2017, is still here and tooled up, but between injuries and the shutdown he has just 257 pro plate appearances and not much production to show for it.
2021 impact
García is already in the rotation right now, although there is competition for those last two spots depending on the health of various other candidates, and Schmidt is a rotation candidate for later in the season if the need arises. Abreu could appear in the bullpen, but I doubt he makes any starts for the Yankees after their offseason acquisitions.
Sleeper
Duran was my sleeper last year. I’m really curious to see how Waldichuk’s stuff and delivery look after his velocity spike in workouts.
(Photo of Clarke Schmidt: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
