The Rangers weren’t done when they signed the No. 3 free agent on my rankings, Marcus Semien, and the No. 19 free agent, Jon Gray. They have now signed the No. 2 free agent, Corey Seager, to a 10-year, $325 million deal, one that gives them the best middle-infield combo in baseball — as long as Seager can stay on the field.
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Seager is an MVP candidate, nearly winning one in his rookie year, playing like one in 2021 in 92 games despite a trip to the IL for a broken hand. His 2021 season at the plate actually looked a lot like his peak years of 2016-2017, when he was worth nearly 13 WAR over the two seasons, when he hit .302/.370/.497 with average to above-average defense at shortstop; this past year, he hit .306/.394/.521, but with below-average defense. He’s also been as good a hitter against lefties as against righties since the Dodgers helped him make a small adjustment at the plate in Double A, with virtually no platoon split in the majors. The Rangers got very little offense from their infield last year, with virtually nothing from short or third and only a little more from second base, so adding Seager and Semien could be a 10-win swing or more, assuming they can get 150 games from Seager. His two best years came before Tommy John surgery, and his first full year back was his worst to date, while this past year was interrupted by the broken hand — neither injury is likely to recur, but it does mean his history of durability is at least not what it should be.
This is what a player with superstar upside should be paid, and I’m sure the Rangers are looking at his 2021 season and seeing a 6-WAR pace, matching what he did in those two years before Tommy John. I’m assuming they’ll put him at shortstop and Semien at second base, but they’d be a better defensive team if they switched those two, or moved Seager to third, played Semien at short, and perhaps played Andy Ibañez at second base, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa the utility infielder. It’s more likely that they start Seager at shortstop and have to move him to third base down the road, as he’s been below average at shortstop since the surgery and isn’t likely to get any better as he gets older, although the presence of top prospect Josh Jung at third base could make them leave Seager at shortstop longer than his defense warrants.
The Rangers have been the surprise spenders of the offseason, as they won just 60 games last year and didn’t seem poised to make a leap forward; their rebuilding process hasn’t yielded much in the way of big-league talent so far, with more pitcher injuries than homegrown stars. In 2021, the Rangers had just seven players worth more than 1 WAR, and only two were drafted by Texas — Joey Gallo, drafted in 2012, and Kiner-Falefa, drafted in 2013. Since then, the highest career WAR for a Rangers draftee belongs to Dylan Moore, at 2.8 WAR, mostly from his fluky 2020 season. They haven’t had a strong farm system in a long time, close to a decade now, and the results bear that out. That’s how they ended up in a situation where they had to import multiple stars, such as Seager and Semien, and spend to bolster their rotation, with Gray probably not their only free-agent starter signing this winter if they want to compete in 2022. They’ll be far better to watch this year, regardless, closer to a .500 team now than the .370 team they were in 2021, and if some of their top young players and prospects do break through in the next few years, they have a much better core in place.
I imagine this contract leaves Carlos Correa a very happy man — and his agent, too. This is what superstars should be paid, and Correa has more of an argument to be paid like a superstar than Seager does. He’s five months younger than Seager, had the better 2021 season (7.2 rWAR), and is going to stay at shortstop longer than Seager is. Correa’s market might still be down to the Tigers, Yankees and Angels, as no other contender has the clear need at that position and the willingness to pay for him. (The Cubs have the need, but not the willingness.) The Cardinals could benefit from Correa as well — everyone could — but their need isn’t as glaring and they might not wish to commit that much to three-fourths of their infield, with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt already signed to long-term deals. That doesn’t consider teams that weren’t contenders in 2021, like the Twins, or teams that have already committed to someone else at short but should still go after Correa, like the Phillies. But if your early guess was that the Tigers or Yankees would sign Correa, subsequent events only seem to make that more likely.
(Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
