The Astros’ system has gotten much weaker in the last five years, between trades to boost the big-league team (adding Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and Ryan Pressly, among others) and much less productive drafts as the team has picked lower and shed most of its scouts. The Astros are still finding hidden value through R&D and some great work on the player development side, and have a number of guys who look like breakout candidates for 2021 if we get a minor-league season.
Advertisement
To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Forrest Whitley, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 29)
From the Top 100: Whitley still hasn’t made his major-league debut after what amounts to two lost seasons, the first due to poor performance and the second due to the pandemic, but he’s still a potential front-of-the-rotation prospect if he can recapture the form he showed in 2018. Whitley is listed at 6-foot-7 and 238 pounds, and comes at hitters with five distinct pitches, headlined by a fastball that was sitting 97-98 mph in short stints at the Astros’ alternate site last summer, as well as a plus-plus changeup, plus cutter, and two solid-average breaking balls. His loss of command in 2019 remains a puzzle, and maybe he would be better served via an internship in the Astros’ bullpen before they stick him in the rotation, but there is still so much to like here between the stuff and the size that I remain a believer that he’ll be an impact big-league starter in time.
2. Luis García, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 67)
From the Top 100: García was the Astros’ No. 3 prospect going into 2020, but hadn’t pitched above High A, so there wasn’t much reason to expect him in the majors last year … but debut he did, making one start and four relief appearances for Houston in September. He was 93-97 mph in the big leagues with a plus slider and plus-plus changeup, although he pitched mostly off the fastball. He threw 37 changeups in the big leagues, and hitters swung and missed at 10 of them, a 27 percent rate that’s higher than Zach Davies got on his changeup (the most valuable changeup from any starter, per FanGraphs) and close to the rate Devin Williams got on his (30 percent). García has to throw more strikes, although he didn’t work too much in the heart of the strike zone. All three of his pitches could be plus, especially with good vertical movement on the four-seamer, and whether he starts will be a function of his ability to execute a plan and cut his walk rate. That might mean another year in the minors, or an internship in the Astros’ bullpen, before he joins the rotation permanently.
3. Pedro León, OF
León defected from Cuba in 2019 after mashing for two seasons in Cuba’s Serie Nacional and signed with the Astros in January for $4 million. He can show some huge tools, including 80 sprint times and an 80 arm, as well as huge raw power, hitting 15 homers in just 33 games — a first-half record — in his last season in Cuba. He’s also 22, with pro experience, and further along than most players signed on the international front, probably more comparable in experience and preparation to Luis Robert or Yasiel Puig. He’s very exciting, but we have to see him against at least some minor-league pitching to see how those tools will play out and where his hit tool, the most important one, actually sits.
Advertisement
4. Hunter Brown, RHP
Brown was up to 99 mph in college and was 95-98 mph in instructs last fall with a wipeout curveball at 83-85 mph with huge break. He didn’t throw the curveball in college at Division II Wayne State, instead using a power slider at 88-90 mph, which also should be an above-average pitch for him. Brown’s main issue is control, which was less of an issue in college because he could just overpower hitters, while pro hitters have better plate discipline. If he can work in the zone with even fringy control, he’d be a potential mid-rotation guy who can miss bats even when throwing strikes.
5. Jeremy Peña, SS
Peña was a glove-first, light-bat guy out of the University of Maine, but his bat keeps improving while he’s still a 65 defender at short. He’s gotten stronger since signing and makes better swing decisions, hitting well in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, leading the league in at-bats and still finishing in the top 10 in the league in batting average and OBP. He’s pretty handsy and isn’t going to hit for much power with his current approach, but as a high-contact guy with plus-plus defense, he doesn’t have to hit the ball in the seats much to be a regular.
6. Jairo Solis, RHP
Solis returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of 2019 and pitched in the Astros’ Dominican instructs last fall, working at 94-97 mph as a starter with a four-pitch mix. He has a pitcher’s build with broad shoulders, and an easy delivery that should allow him to maintain that velocity deep into games and to throw strikes. He’s pitched only 112 innings in his pro career, however, and though he showed electric stuff as an 18-year-old in 2018, his command and control were about what you’d expect from a guy that age. He could be primed for a huge jump now that he’s completely healthy.
7. Korey Lee, C
Lee was a surprise first-round pick in 2019 when the Astros took him with their top pick. They’ve worked with him to quiet his approach at the plate so he can make more loud contact, which he’s done somewhat so far, and to shorten up his arm action to take better advantage of his huge arm strength. He’s still got a long stride at the plate but has worked on shortening it as well. If the swing and stride changes produce more of the hard line-drive contact, he could be a solid regular.
8. Shawn Dubin, RHP
Dubin was a walk-on at NAIA school Georgetown College — not the Hoyas, but the Tigers — and went to the Astros in the 13th round as a nearly 23-year-old senior sign for a whopping $1,000 bonus. That’s some find for that round, as Dubin is now 94-97 mph with two power breaking balls in his curveball and slider, and he was good enough that the Astros put him on their taxi squad in October. His command and control are fringy, and he could probably use a better changeup, although so far he’s had no trouble with lefties. The real knock on Dubin is his size; he was under 150 pounds in college and is listed at 6-foot-1, 171 pounds now, so maybe he’s on the small side to start, but I’d give him every chance to do so — and I will be rooting for him all the way.
Advertisement
9. Colin Barber, OF
Barber was the team’s fourth-round pick out of high school in 2019, then played last summer in the pop-up Chicago-area league the City of Champions Cup, where he posted an OBP well above the median even though he was one of only three teenagers there. Barber plays very hard and should max out the tools he has, including above-average speed and what should eventually be above-average power. He’s in center now but will have to work to stay there, although it’s possible with some swing help that he’ll get to 20-plus homers and provide plus defense in a corner too.
10. Jordan Brewer, OF
Brewer dislocated his shoulder playing football in high school and ended up going to junior college for two years to play baseball, spending one year at Michigan — the same year the program went to the finals of the College World Series — before the Astros took him in the third round. He’s a 70 runner who should be able to play plus defense in center, and at the plate, he has plus raw power but his pitch recognition and plate discipline lag behind most prospects who come out of Division I schools. It’s huge upside if he hits enough to get to the power and the defense comes along, maybe a 25/25 guy with that glove, albeit with a low OBP.
11. Tyler Ivey, RHP
Ivey’s a very athletic right-hander who fills up the strike zone despite a funky delivery that’s tough to repeat, and if he could hold 92-93 mph as a starter he’d project to a back-end rotation spot. He’s often 88-91 mph in that role, with a big curveball he can land for strikes, maybe still good enough for a fifth starter spot but perhaps more suited to the bullpen.
12. Alex Santos, RHP
Santos was the Astros’ first pick in 2020, coming in the second round, out of a Bronx high school that has never produced a major leaguer. Blessed with a great arm, Santos is projectable and already can get up to 94-95 mph with a promising changeup, although there’s some head violence in his delivery and he doesn’t have an average breaking ball yet.
13. Brett Conine, RHP
A reliever/outfielder at Cal State Fullerton, Conine (no relation to Jeff) moved to starting after the Astros drafted him in the 11th round in 2018, and he took to it like a Titan to war. He’s a fastball/changeup guy, the former at 93-95 mph, with a curveball that’s improved to good enough, and he has at least above-average command and control. His stuff might make him a back-end starter; his command just might (holds fingers very close together) make him something more.
14. Luis Santana, IF
Santana was the best prospect coming back from the Mets in the deal for J.D. Davis, but hasn’t progressed much with the bat since the trade and projects more as a utility infielder now. He’s a scrappy player who can fill in all around the dirt, and has more pop than you’d expect from his compact frame. The one thing that might help him still surprise and become a regular at second or third is that he’s always been tough to strike out, and if he gets a little stronger he could boost his BABIP and end up an everyday guy.
15. Freudis Nova, SS
Nova is definitely in that category of players who were most hurt by the shutdown because he just needs to play — he has tools, but lacks polish on both sides of the ball. He’s a plus runner but a poor base stealer; he’s quick to the ball at short but needs to finish plays more consistently; he has a fast bat, but not much of an eye and swings hard all the time. He still has the tools that earned him a $1.2 million bonus from the Astros in 2016, but he hasn’t progressed enough in the way of skills, and has lost a lot of the playing time that might have helped him.
Advertisement
16. Alex McKenna, OF
The Astros’ fourth-rounder in 2018, McKenna has seen a huge jump in his exit velocities, giving him a second life as a prospect after a very disappointing 2019 when he hit .252/.327/.303 as a 21-year-old in half a season in Low A. He’s an above-average runner and can play center field, so if that newfound contact quality comes out in his stat line, he could end up an everyday guy. (McKenna didn’t make my Astros top 20 last year, but in 2019, I had him No. 12 in the system, and wrote this: “With all the swing optimization going on around baseball, and the Astros among the leaders in utilizing such data, McKenna seems like a good candidate to take off in pro ball.” Make me look good, Alex.)
17. Joe Perez, 3B
Perez was a two-way prospect in high school and had Tommy John surgery about a week before the 2017 draft, where the Astros took him in the second round anyway. He came back a little in 2019 but wasn’t completely healthy, and with the shutdown last year he still has only 209 pro plate appearances despite nearly four years passing since he signed. He looked good in instructs, with easy power despite a lack of the big swing movement you’d expect, putting the ball in the air more than he had in 2019. We’ll have to see how he shakes off the rust and if his throwing arm is still good enough for third, but the power potential was always there and he could be a comeback candidate even at first.
18. Nathan Perry, C
A fifth-round pick out of a Virginia high school, Perry has quietly performed in short-season ball, showing an advanced approach, more power than expected (although his swing has some natural loft), and enough receiving and throwing skills to stick behind the plate. Right now he’s on a backup path but will play this year at age 21 and has time to show more with the stick and develop into a regular.
19. Zach Daniels, OF
The Astros’ fourth-round pick in 2020, Daniels might have 80 raw power and is an above-average runner, but has a wild swing and didn’t hit at all for two years at Tennessee — when the Vols let him play at all — before getting off to a good start last spring before the shutdown. He’s an above-average runner and might be able to handle center field. He’s got to hit first, and his track record says that’s a longshot.
20. Austin Hansen, RHP
Hansen pitched in relief and the rotation in 2019 for the Astros’ Low A and High A affiliates, missing a ton of bats with his slider but walking too many guys at the higher level. He’ll work in the low to mid-90s and has enough of a changeup to be a starter if he can improve his command and control.
Others of note
Right-hander Bryan Abreu has appeared in the majors briefly in the last two seasons, throwing more sliders than any other pitch. He can really spin that and the curveball, but he’s a pure reliever with that approach and an average fastball. … Right-hander Jairo Lopez has a 55 fastball and 60 slider but a tiny frame and almost certainly ends up in the bullpen. … Right-hander Peter Solomon is coming back from 2019 Tommy John surgery; he and fellow right-hander Blair Henley both struggled as college relievers, but have four pitches and could move to the rotation in pro ball. … Eighteen-year-old Dauri Lorenzo received a $1.8 million bonus in July 2019 and has yet to play in a pro game, although the Astros brought him to instructs this fall and he held his own against much older pitching. He’s a shortstop for now with some chance to stay there, but it’s his hit tool and OBP potential that will make him. … CJ Stubbs is the younger brother of Garrett, and converted to catching after he hurt his elbow as a pitcher while at USC. CJ is way bigger than Garrett, with above-average power and good hands behind the plate, but he’s behind for his age (he’s 24 now) in reps as a hitter. … Grae Kessinger was their second-rounder in 2019, a shortstop who has to move to second or third, with good bat control but no power or speed.
2021 impact
The Astros don’t have a rotation opening right now, but with Justin Verlander still on the way back and Lance McCullers Jr. so injury-prone, both García and Whitley should get major-league starts this year, and Dubin might be in that queue as well.
Sleeper
Last year’s sleeper was Luis García, and he did indeed jump to the top 100. Solis could be on the verge of doing the same.
(Photo of Forrest Whitley: Jim Rassol / USA Today)
