This might be the best farm system the Marlins have ever had; it’s certainly the best Marlins farm system I’ve ever had the pleasure of writing up. Where once it was hard to find 10 guys to really like here, now it’s hard to stop at 20.
To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
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1. Edward Cabrera, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 20)
From the Top 100: As good as Sixto Sánchez is — and he’s very very good — there’s a solid chance Cabrera will be better because he has the swing-and-miss secondary pitch Sánchez lacks. Cabrera is 96-100 mph with a plus-plus changeup that’s among the best in the minors; it’s 90ish with huge tumble and might be a grade 80 pitch. He might have debuted in 2020 with the Marlins contending but had a minor shoulder issue, so they chose to be cautious, recognizing the top-of-the-rotation potential he has with those two pitches. His slider is average to above average, with a little less power than you’d expect from his arm speed but enough to miss some bats. He’s 6-foot-5 and 217 pounds and probably has room on that frame to fill out, so he has a size advantage over Sánchez as well. Pick your poison: They’re both potential aces and very, very valuable prospects right now.
2. Sixto Sánchez, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 25)
From the Top 100: Sánchez was every bit as good as advertised and then some when he debuted for the Marlins in late August, and he held that form through the Marlins’ run into the playoffs. Sánchez, the main piece coming back to Miami in the J.T. Realmuto trade, averaged 98.5 mph on his four-seamer as a starter and showed a wipeout changeup as well as two pretty functional breaking balls. The latter was always the main question he faced as a prospect, other than health, as he doesn’t naturally spin the ball that well, but he got whiff rates over 10 percent on both his curveball and his slider. His strikeout rate in the majors was lower than you’d expect, but he has the weapons to put away hitters, needing to work more on location when he’s ahead in the count. He still has to maintain his conditioning and show he can hold velocity like this over a regular season’s workload, but this is No. 1 starter material with this new, more complete arsenal.
3. Jazz Chisholm, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 26)
From the Top 100: Chisholm was the Diamondbacks’ top prospect before they traded him to Miami at the 2019 deadline for starter Zac Gallen, who has been outstanding for Arizona since the trade. Chisholm is still a very high-upside prospect, a plus-plus runner with incredible bat speed, strong hands and the quickness and arm to stay at shortstop, but he lacks polish on both sides of the ball and could really use a year in the high minors in 2021. He wasn’t ready for the majors last year, struggling in particular with big-league breaking stuff (whiffing on one of every seven breaking pitches he saw), but the Marlins saw value in getting him a cup of coffee after a summer at the alternate site. He’s still an elite prospect, with 20-homer upside and great speed at a premium defensive position but also the sort of prospect who might be most hurt by a year of lost reps facing live pitching.
4. Max Meyer, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 40)
From the Top 100: Meyer might only be a 6-foot right-hander, but he’s been up to 100 mph as a starter with a hellacious slider, and there’s as much consensus that Meyer can start as I’ve ever heard scouts offer on a right-hander this size. The University of Minnesota had him throw sliders way too often, but his fastball plays, and it turns out he has a pretty good changeup that was gathering dust on a shelf in Minneapolis the last few years. He’s very athletic and has a great delivery for someone who throws this hard, also earning raves for how hard he competes. It’s easy to project him as a top-end, two- to three-win reliever, but the Marlins see him as a starter and he could give them another above-average or better option in their rotation along with Sánchez and Cabrera as soon as the end of 2022.
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5. JJ Bleday, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 89)
From the Top 100: Bleday was the fourth overall pick in the 2019 draft, coming off a spring in which he led Division I hitters with 27 homers despite playing in the SEC. Bleday is athletic for a big corner outfielder, moving well for his size with a plus arm, and at the plate he has quick hands and a disciplined approach that should let him race through the low minors (if such a thing still exists). He had a substantial hand hitch in college, which led to some concerns about his ability to hit with a wood bat against better pitching, but the Marlins have worked with him to reduce the size of that hitch, and there are certainly big-league hitters who have hit despite such mechanical issues — Hunter Pence comes to mind — because they had quick wrists and great hand-eye coordination. Bleday seems to have those things, and while he’s going to have to work on hitting left-handed pitching, he has the power and patience already to project as a middle-of-the-order bat who adds value on defense in right.
6. Braxton Garrett, LHP
Garrett debuted in the majors last year, four years after he was the seventh pick in the 2016 draft out of a high school in northern Alabama, even though he had just 122 minor-league innings in four seasons around Tommy John surgery. His velocity hasn’t come all the way back, as he averaged only 89.6 mph on his four-seamer, but he can still get outs with his curveball and extremely deceptive changeup, and he throws everything for strikes. He’s a big-league starter now, but his ceiling is going to be a lot lower if this is where his fastball is going to sit.
7. Lewin Díaz, 1B
The Marlins picked up Díaz in a trade for Sergio Romo in July 2019, and Díaz has since transformed his body and redone his stance so that he’s a solid first baseman who projects to hit for some average and some power. Díaz has powerful hands and keeps a strong front side through contact, showing power to all fields, and should make a lot of hard contact. He’s not a patient hitter and is likely to hit for average without a high walk rate, while at first he’s a capable defender but still a 30 runner and not likely to be rangy there. He’s probably a year away from being ready for the majors but should be an everyday first baseman who can hit fourth or fifth in the lineup.
8. Jesús Sánchez, OF
The Marlins’ COVID-19 outbreak meant they brought up a lot of players in 2020 who weren’t ready for the majors, including Díaz and Sánchez, the latter acquired in a 2019 trade that sent Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards to the Rays. Sánchez swings hard and often, and though he didn’t see great results in the majors, he did make some very hard contact, although his inexperience and questionable plate discipline held him back. He could come into power down the road, but his swing is more geared toward doubles and hard line drives; I could see him hitting .300-plus regularly with 15 homers and OBPs only in the .330-340 range.
9. Trevor Rogers, LHP
Rogers’ ERA wasn’t pretty in the majors, but he flashed some pretty good stuff and showed the elements to become a mid-rotation starter. Rogers was 90-96 mph with very high spin on the four-seamer, along with a plus changeup that has one of the lowest spin rates I’ve seen, and hitters clearly don’t like it, whiffing on the pitch 23 percent of the time. He has a slider, but it’s below average and he’s never shown great feel to spin any sort of breaking ball. He can get enormous extension out over his front side, up to 7.5 feet, but doesn’t do so consistently. Even as a fastball-changeup guy, he can be a league-average starter without a better breaking ball as long as he gets more consistent with his delivery. To be more, though, he’ll probably need a better third pitch.
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10. Peyton Burdick, OF
The Marlins’ third-round pick in 2019 out of Wright State went straight to Low A in his draft summer (after just six games in short-season) and hit .307/.408/.542 with strong walk and contact rates. He’s a 6-foot corner outfielder, so he has to hit, and there is still a scouting bias against shorter guys on the corners, but he is extremely strong with plus raw power and so far at least has shown good feel to hit.
11. Kyle Nicolas, RHP
The Marlins’ second-round pick in 2020, Nicolas walked 72 guys in 79 2/3 innings between his spring and summer on the Cape, but last spring he came out throwing strikes, sitting 95 mph and touching 98 mph. By the fall he was throwing even harder and showing big-time spin on his slider, so while he needs to develop a better change or other pitch for lefties, the Marlins are excited that they might have found a top-end starter if his control sticks around.
12. Dax Fulton, LHP
Fulton was the Marlins’ second-round pick in 2020 even though he was set to miss the entire year after Tommy John surgery in the fall of 2019. He worked in the low-90s with a curveball that projected to plus, but his delivery put a lot of stress on his arm and he’ll have to work to repeat it (or potentially clean it up). He was back and healthy this offseason and should be able to pitch in the Gulf Coast League this summer, so we’ll see how his breaking ball has returned, but his fans in the draft saw No. 2 starter upside.
13. Monte Harrison, OF
Harrison has four plus tools in his power, arm, speed and glove, but he strikes out too much to get to the other tools, especially the power and generally high exit velocities. He punched out 26 times in 51 plate appearances in the majors last year, and 215 times in 583 plate appearances in Triple A in 2018, his last full season. I don’t really know what you do at this point; he has too much ability to say he’s not a prospect, but there’s no major-league role for a guy who has this much trouble making contact.
14. José Devers, SS/3B
Devers was part of the return for Giancarlo Stanton. The cousin of Red Sox third baseman Rafael is smaller and leaner, with good hand-eye coordination but not much power projection, so he’s most likely a utility infielder but could hit his way to everyday status if he can play up the middle.
15. Connor Scott, OF
Scott was their first-rounder in 2018, a plus-plus runner who is at least a 55 defender in center, with good bat speed but an in-between build that is now starting to fill out. He got stronger during the shutdown and showed more impact in instructs last year; the Marlins had pushed him to High A at age 19 in 2019 and he struggled, so he might be best served starting there and seeing if the new strength leads to better-quality contact.
16. Nasim Nuñez, SS
Nuñez is a legit shortstop, a 55 or 60 defender now, and close to a 70 runner, with good swings from both sides of the plate. He’s small, 5-9 and 158 pounds, and needs to get a lot stronger to be able to make enough quality contact to hit big-league pitching. He’s got a small frame, so there’s some risk he doesn’t do so, but if he can, he could be an everyday shortstop.
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17. Kam Misner, OF
Misner is as tooled-up as anyone in the system, with power and speed and potentially plus defense in center, but he swung-and-missed too much in college. He needs to improve his pitch recognition and better sync up his hands with his hips, but there’s legit star upside if he does so.
18. Zach McCambley, RHP
McCambley has huge spin rates on his fastball and curveball, with the latter a grade 70 pitch, and had success as a starter on the Cape in the summer of 2019. He’ll need to improve his changeup, which is an afterthought now, and there’s some effort in the delivery, but he throws strikes and has two legit weapons, giving him mid-rotation upside.
19. Jordan Holloway, RHP
Holloway has three pitches, including a 97-98 mph fastball and a hammer curveball with big spin, but he has a hard time repeating his delivery and consistent strikes have been a problem before and after his 2018 Tommy John surgery. He’ll work as a starter for now but is far more likely to end up a reliever than any of the pitchers above him on this list.
20. Nick Neidert, RHP
Neidert dealt with COVID-19 earlier in the 2020 season, then struggled badly in his debut, mostly because his changeup, probably his best secondary pitch, was ineffective against big-league hitters, which meant his average fastball got hit hard as well. He’s a command guy more than a stuff guy, but even getting his changeup down didn’t help much. I’m inclined to overlook anyone’s struggles in 2020, but the way in which he struggled was a little concerning.
Others of note
Jose Salas was the Marlins’ top signing in 2019, getting $2.8 million on the promise of a strong, switch-hitting infielder, possibly even a shortstop, who grows into some power. He has loose, quick hands at the plate and has a good frame to add strength without becoming so big that he has to move into a corner. He was born in Venezuela and moved back there to qualify as an international free agent, but grew up in Florida. … Outfielder Victor Mesa Jr. got the smaller of the two bonuses when his brother, Victor Victor Mesa, signed for $5.25 million in 2018, but Mesa Jr. has the more advanced hit tool and should be an above-average defender in a corner. His chance to be a regular depends on his power development, but he doesn’t project to more than grade 45 power just yet. … Jerar Encarnacion has ridiculous power from his 6-6, 250-pound frame, but his hit tool is probably a 40 and he has to find his way to more contact. … Will Banfield has the catch-and-throw tools to be a big-league backup, but he’s had too little success at the plate to project as more than an emergency call-up right now. … Jake Eder was one of the Marlins’ last two picks in the 2020 draft, a highly touted starter out of high school who went to college and didn’t progress, but is now healthy and seems like a good candidate for the Marlins’ player development guys to work with. He could end up a back-end starter.
2021 impact
Sixto Sánchez and Rogers should be in the Opening Day rotation. Garrett, Neidert and Cabrera could all be in line as starters when there’s a need later in the season. Chisholm and Díaz should spend most of the year in the minors, but either could be up in August-September for developmental reasons.
Sleeper
Last year’s was Díaz and that would still apply. I’d add Burdick as someone who could make a big jump this year once he gets to play at an age-appropriate level.
(Photo of Cabrera: Jeff Roberson / Associated Press)
