Cleveland’s system has been on the ascent for a while, although 2021 was a mixed bag with down performances and some significant injuries. The large group of high-upside free agents it signed in Latin America in 2017 is approaching the big leagues, though, and several of them are good enough that the Guardians can see the core of their next competitive roster.
Advertisement
To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
Note: Ages as of July 1, 2022.
1. Brayan Rocchio, SS (Top 100 ranking: 22)
Age: 21 | 5-10 | 170 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Rocchio is a switch-hitting shortstop with surprising pop for his size, above-average defense at short and a great feel for the game on both sides of the ball. I apologize if I’ve inadvertently reminded Guardians fans of anyone in particular. Rocchio does a little of everything, and his 2021 season, where he went .277/.346/.460 between High A and Double A as a 20-year-old, is even more impressive given that he didn’t get to play anywhere in 2020, not even the Guardians’ alternate site. Rocchio has a short swing with quick wrists, but he generates more power than you might guess for a wiry 5-10 middle infielder, with real strength in his wrists, leading to 15 homers in 108 games last year. Rocchio’s a 55 runner but doesn’t always show it, and he’s a below-average base stealer, perhaps the only real flaw in his game. It’s an exciting package, and he’s a player who’ll probably be underestimated right up until he hits his way onto an All-Star team.
2. George Valera, OF (Top 100 ranking: 29)
Age: 21 | 5-11 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Valera signed for $1.3 million way back in 2017, but due to multiple injuries and the lost 2020 season, he still has just 599 pro plate appearances, or just over one year’s worth. When he’s played, however, he’s shown exceptional patience and easy all-fields power, with 100 walks and 28 homers already in that brief career, all before he turned 21 this past November. Valera played only 86 games last year due to an oblique strain and had a weird season at the plate, barely facing any left-handed pitchers — they accounted for about 18 percent of his plate appearances — which skews his overall line, especially since he struck out in more than a third of those plate appearances against southpaws. He plays with a lot of panache — I believe “swaggy” might be the more contemporary term, fellow kids — and bat-flips his home runs like a boss. He has bat speed, big strength and an advanced eye at the plate, along with solid-average defense for right field, and there’s just an electricity to the way he plays. He’s not a finished product, due in no small part to his limited playing time, but he might be a 30-homer/80-walk guy at his peak.
Advertisement
3. Danny Espino, RHP (Top 100 ranking: 51)
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 24 in 2019
Espino was the 24th pick in 2019, part of a run of hard-throwing high-school pitchers the Guardians took in 2018-19. He made his full-season debut in 2021, where he posted the highest strikeout rate (40.5 percent) of any pitcher who threw at least 75 innings at any level. Espino came into 2021 in better shape to get through a full season, and progressed over the course of the year as well, learning to use his fastball more effectively and seeing development on his off-speed stuff. He’s pitching more vertically now, going up with the four-seamer (which can touch 100 mph) and staying behind the ball more, resulting in hitters missing the pitch more than they did even in high school. His slider projects to be plus, and has supplanted his curveball as his primary breaking pitch, while his average changeup has been good enough to help him dominate lefties as he has right-handed batters. Espino’s main issue now is command and control — he walked just over 10 percent of batters this year, but he’s also generally inefficient and has to work to generate some more weak contact rather than trying to finish every at bat with a strikeout. I doubt he’ll ever get to above-average command, but even average command with this stuff would make him a No. 2 starter.
4. Jose Tena, SS (Top 100 ranking: 68)
Age: 21 | 5-10 |160 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Tena was just 20 in 2021 but finished above the median for all High-A hitters in average, OBP and slugging despite his youth, all while playing solid-average defense at shortstop. Tena has plus bat speed and an aggressive approach, attacking early in the count, with good plate coverage that allows him to put a lot of pitches in play, even just beyond the zone, a good tool that he needs to develop into more of a skill by becoming more selective. He’s strong for an undersized guy, hitting 16 homers in 107 games last year and projecting to at least that many when he gets to the majors. He’s an above-average runner who has the arm for shortstop or third base, although he could always move to second and become an above-average defender there if he’s bumped by a premium defender at shortstop. Tena has shown he can make adjustments in-season, though, starting slow in the Arizona Fall League and improving his pitch recognition as the fall went along. His bat speed and wrist strength will allow him to hit enough to be a regular or better anywhere on the infield, but becoming more patient would give him a chance to be a star.
5. Steven Kwan, OF (Just-missed list)
Age: 24 | 5-9 | 170 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 163 in 2018
Advertisement
Kwan doesn’t quite look the part of a top prospect, since you won’t find many 5-9 left fielders of any sort in the majors — only Andrew Benintendi and Ben Revere have had at least 2 WAR and played the majority of their games in left at 5-9 or shorter in the last 10 years. Kwan does hit, though, and hit and hit, going .328/.407/.527 last year between Double A and Triple A at age 23, with more walks than strikeouts. His strikeout rate of 9.1 percent was the fifth-lowest of all minor leaguers with at least 200 plate appearances, and it came with more power than any of the guys who struck out less often. He runs close to average but doesn’t have the arm to play center, and there’s a ceiling on his production given his size and positional limitations. I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t hit enough to be at least a fringe regular, though, and his upside is someone who challenges for the league lead in batting average.
6. Gavin Williams, P
Age: 22 | 6-6 | 238 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 23 in 2021
Williams had the stuff to be a top 15 pick in the 2021 draft, but concerns about his medicals pushed him towards the end of the first round, where Cleveland took him with the 23rd overall pick. Williams is a big, physical guy who sits mid-90s, reaching 98 in a tournament start against Vanderbilt, and has held his velocity into games. He has the three pitches to start and his delivery, which has a short arm action and short stride that all has him on line to the plate, should allow him to do so. Several teams had him off their draft boards due to those concerns about his medicals and durability; he could be a No. 2 starter if that doesn’t recur.
7. Tyler Freeman, SS
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 71 in 2017
Freeman’s season ended with surgery on his left shoulder, limiting him to 41 games in Double A, where he hit .323/.372/.470 with low strikeout and walk rates. He’s got real ability to put the bat on the ball that should carry over well to the big leagues, as he seems able to catch up to velocity and recognize off-speed stuff. He lacks power and doesn’t project to any, so it’s likely to be soft contact with a lot of singles, and has never shown a propensity to walk – nor would I expect pitchers to work around him. The bigger question on him is his position. He’s played mostly shortstop with some second base; he has the range to stay at short but his arm is below-average, while he’d be more than adequate at second. I think he’s a soft regular with a high floor, but without power I don’t think he’s a starter on a contender.
8. Logan T. Allen, LHP
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 56 in 2020
Allen is a clear starter with three pitches highlighted by a plus changeup that might be the best in the system now that Eli Morgan is in the majors. Despite that mix, with just an average slider, Allen destroyed left-handed batters last year, with a 37 percent strikeout rate and hilarious 52 strikeouts against three walks, because he has some deception in his delivery that makes it hard for lefties to see the ball. He’s a plus control guy with at least average command right now. The only real concern about Allen as a starter is the fastball, which is just average and doesn’t have great secondary traits. It hasn’t been an issue through Double A, but it’s the kind of pitch that can make a pitcher homer-prone, especially with the big-league baseball. If that’s not an issue, he looks like a league-average starter in the making.
Advertisement
9. Jhonkensy Noel, 3B
Age: 20 | 6-1 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Noel is huge, more like 6-foot-4, 240 now rather than his listed 6-1, 180, but runs well for his size, and thanks to a swing change before 2021, he hit so well that the Guardians had to put him on the 40-man. Noel hit .393/.426/.693 in Low A and then hit .280/.351/.550 in High A, with 19 homers in just 273 plate appearances between those levels, making a lot of very loud contact without many strikeouts or walks. He’s big for the infield but is an average defender at third. His swing really lets him get into his power now, although he still covers the zone well even with his size. He played only about half a season around hand and ankle injuries, but if he does this again in a full season in Double A, he’ll end up a top three prospect in this system next year.
10. Nolan Jones, OF/3B
Age: 24 | 6-4 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 55 in 2016
Jones hit .238/.356/.431 in Triple A last year with a strikeout rate over 30 percent, a disappointing performance given his experience in Double A in 2019 and his demonstrated ability to at least make hard contact against right-handers. He has real trouble with anything moving away from him, which pitchers have already begun to exploit, and his defense at third hasn’t progressed enough to leave him on the dirt, which is why Cleveland started playing him in right field last year. He may just be a good platoon right fielder who can hit 15-20 homers a year against right-handers, needing a big adjustment to be more than that, a disappointing comedown for a former top 100 prospect who showed power and discipline in the lower minors.
11. Richie Palacios, OF
Age: 25 | 5-10 | 180 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 103 in 2018
Drafted in the third round in 2022, the diminutive Palacios can really hit – he has great bat control, enough bat speed to hit velocity, a strong eye, the ability to drop the bat head on pitches in – and has done so consistently, hitting .290 or better with an OBP of .385 or better at High A, Double A, Triple A, and even the Arizona Fall League. He has below-average power, with a swing that’s more geared to put the ball on a line than to produce big flies, and because he’s a fringy defender at second base at best, he’s a corner outfielder who might have only 10-12 homers a year. There’s definitely a role for him in the majors, but it may not be a full-time one.
12. Gabriel Arias, SS
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 217 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Advertisement
Arias has the tools to be a better player, but his approach continues to lag, especially in terms of pitch recognition, which may keep him from becoming an everyday player. He can play shortstop and he has 15-20 homer power, so the foundation exists for him to be a regular even if he has just a .300ish OBP, but he’d have a hard time getting there with his pitch recognition issues. He’s had multiple iterations of his swing in the last few years as well, which probably hasn’t helped matters. He turns 22 in late February, so he has time to improve his approach and become an everyday guy, but he hasn’t made any progress there yet.
13. Bo Naylor, C
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 29 in 2018
Naylor did not hit at all last year, with a .189/.280/.332 line for Double-A Akron at age 21 that is just a huge, across the board disappointment. He hasn’t hit well since rookie ball, but this was a big step down from his Low-A performance in 2019. He’s swinging uphill now, trying to get to more power, but the result has been less contact and less power. Behind the plate, he has athleticism and throws well, but perhaps the work of developing as a catcher is inhibiting the work he needs to do as a hitter? He’s only 22 and so athletic that you can’t give up on him, but he’s not going to get better with that uphill approach.
14. Angel Martinez, SS
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 165 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Martinez has started to fill out now, putting on 30-35 pounds since he signed, which is leading to some more raw power that started to show up a little in games last year. He’s a good hitter for contact already but the quality of contact hasn’t caught up yet, so his final line of .241/.319/.382 isn’t that promising. He can play shortstop right now, playing a lot of second base last year because the Guardians have so many players needing reps at shortstop, and if he has to slide to second full-time he’ll be a 55 defender there. He can run a little and might peak at 20 homers, so now the key is to turn the added strength into more consistent hard contact.
15. Bryan Lavastida, C
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 463 in 2018
Lavastida looks like a bat-first backup catcher who continues to perform despite some effort to his game and a lack of any great tools. He has performed, though, with a .289/.380/.456 line last year, mostly in High A and Double A, and he does seem like he’ll at least draw some walks and hit for some power. The comparison that comes up often with him is Mike Napoli, maybe a Napoli with a bit better defense but less power. Napoli had a hell of a career, with over 25 WAR in 4,500 plate appearances, and if Lavastida becomes that, then I have him underranked.
Advertisement
16. Isaiah Greene, OF
Age: 20 | 6-1 | 180 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 69 in 2020
Greene was one of the four players Cleveland got for Francisco Lindor, as well as Amed Rosario, Andrés Giménez and right-hander Josh Wolf. The Mets’ second-round pick in 2020, Greene made his pro debut in 2021 in the ACL and posted a .421 OBP, drawing walks but also swinging at good pitches while playing above-average defense in center. He still has room to fill out as he’s 6-1 and only about 175-180 pounds, so there could be power down the road, and at the least he should start hitting the ball harder as he gains strength. There’s everyday upside here.
17. Tanner Burns, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 36 in 2020
Burns’ pro debut was solid, with a 3.57 ERA and good-not-great peripherals in High A, pointing to a back-end starter future unless his stuff changes. He’s mostly 90-93 mph and will touch 95 with an average changeup and 45 slider that projects to get to average. He has average control now with 45 command, maybe getting to 55 and 50, respectively, after he gets some more experience. The issue with his outlook is that he lacks much projection, and it’s hard to forecast him getting more velocity, and he was already a little homer-prone in High A. I think he’s a fifth starter who could be a fourth if the command comes on.
18. Petey Halpin, OF
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 95 in 2020
Halpin played just 54 games last year, starting his season at the very end of June, but did hit well, .294/.363/.425 with a perplexing 55 percent success rate on the bases (11 of 20). He’s still in center field and made a lot of contact last year, so while his swing and setup aren’t going to lead to power, he still has a path to be a regular with the contact and up-the-middle defense. Now he needs to play a full season.
19. Carson Tucker, SS
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 23 in 2020
Advertisement
Cleveland’s 2020 first-round pick and brother of Pirates infielder Cole, Tucker played just six games due to a hand injury. He’s a shortstop who’ll have to improve to get to average there and has a good swing for contact without power. He’ll enter his age-20 season this year with just 25 plate appearances in the last two years.
20. Cody Morris, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-4 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 223 in 2018
Morris has had a ton of arm trouble, including shoulder soreness that kept him out for half of 2021, but he has a three-pitch mix to be a starter and a long track record of above-average control. He had no platoon split in 2021 and could probably be a fifth starter right now if he’s able to handle the workload.
Others of note
Shortstop Jake Fox, the team’s third-round pick in 2021, had a hell of a pro debut, going 17 for 42 with six walks in the ACL. Scouts liked the swing but don’t forecast power, and he’s not that projectable to point to it in the future. He did show a solid approach and above-average speed but is much more likely to end up at second base than stay at short … Johnathan Rodriguez has raw power with some bat speed, but so far he hasn’t shown the ability to pick up or adjust to decent secondary stuff. Drafted in the third round in 2017 from Puerto Rico, he’s a right fielder who has to hit for power since he won’t get on base and won’t provide much defensive value, but with his current approach he’s going to have a hard time getting to the plus power in games… Right-hander Ethan Hankins had Tommy John surgery and missed the 2021 season. The 35th overall pick in 2018 has thrown just 60 innings in pro ball, and this was his second significant arm injury in five years … Right-hander Lenny Torres came back from Tommy John surgery with reduced stuff and command, getting rocked in Low A and especially suffering for his lack of an average breaking ball … Gabriel Rodriguez is an athletic third baseman with solid defense there and a chance to get to an average hit tool with fringy or below-average power … Outfielder Oscar Gonzalez swings very hard with an unorthodox approach, producing plus-plus power without much selectivity. He hit 31 homers last year, which is good, but when you have more homers than walks drawn (22), that’s less good, and he’s limited to a corner … Yordys Valdes can really play shortstop, but he hasn’t hit at all in pro ball and there isn’t a ton of reason to think he’s going to … The Guardians took Ole Miss right-hander Doug Nikhazy in the second round in 2021. He’s a competitive guy with a four-pitch mix of all average stuff, with good deception and solid-average control. He didn’t pitch in pro ball after Ole Miss worked him very hard at the end of its season… Right-hander Tommy Mace was the Guardians’ pick after Nikhazy, with a competitive balance selection. He’s 90-94 but the fastball got hit in the SEC last spring, and his cutter was his only effective pitch. He was better as a freshman than he was as a senior, but maybe Cleveland can get him to go back to what used to work for him … Right-hander Nic Enright is a former 20th rounder who’s 90-92 mph with a big slurve, pounding the zone and getting some deception from a high slot. He struck out 35 percent of batters in relief in Double A and could end up a middle reliever … Second baseman Aaron Bracho hit just .174/.269/.299 in 70 games, because he was hurt yet again; he looked like he was going to hit when he was younger, but if he can’t stay healthy or has to move to first base to stay healthy, I don’t see a major-league future for him. … Mason Hickman, Hunter Gaddis and Xzavion Curry are all depth starter prospects who have a chance to see the major leagues, perhaps just as swingmen, but are worth mentioning in case any sees a velo jump or another significant change.
2022 impact
The Guardians at least have a lot of options among their prospects for 2022 roles, even if they don’t have an obvious opening right now. Tyler Freeman could handle second base if they choose to make Andrés Giménez a utility infielder. Steven Kwan could take over in left field depending on Josh Naylor’s recovery, or if Oscar Mercado can’t recapture his 2019 form. The major-league team is six or seven starters deep already, but Cody Morris and Logan T. Allen are probably the next two in line. And Gabriel Arias is behind Freeman, but not far from a call-up either.
The fallen
Their first pick in 2017, speedy outfielder Quentin Holmes, has never hit in pro ball, with a .226/.284/.302 line in High-A as a 21-year-old last year.
Sleeper
Jhonkensy Noel seems like he’s on the verge of a breakout thanks to the new swing, and just has to go do it for a full year.
(Photo of George Valera: Tony Dejak / Associated Press)
