The Royals’ system-wide change in hitting instruction, working with hitters to develop plans for every at-bat, created a massive shift in their results, including boosting the aggregate walk rate of all of their minor-league hitters by nearly a third from 2019 to 2021. They turned around the fortunes of several of their highest-profile prospects, and now have several potential stars among their position players as well as renewed depth in bats and potential big-league relievers.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 2)
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 2 in 2019
This was as close a call between the top two prospects that I can recall having, probably since my No. 1 and 2 were named Mike and Bryce before the 2011 season — and having Witt second here is no slight to him. Witt destroyed Double-A and Triple-A pitching last year as a 21-year-old with just 37 games of experience outside of high school, all of that coming in the Arizona Rookie League in 2019. He did go to the Royals’ alternate site in 2020, gaining significant experience against older pitching — many of them players who would appear in the majors for Kansas City in 2021 — which may have helped him progress despite the lack of actual games. He also came into power sooner than I expected, with 33 homers on the season, half coming in Double A with the minor-league ball, so this wasn’t some Triple-A mirage.
Witt’s tools package is among the best in the game: He’s at least a 70 runner, has an 80 arm, has plus power, and his hands and feet make him a plus glove at shortstop. There’s some thought he might outgrow the position in time, though that’s hardly a lock. Witt’s father, the former Rangers starter and No. 3 pick in 1985, has a similar frame and did not become overly broad or heavy, even in retirement. It’s possible the Royals would move Witt Jr. to accommodate another shortstop, but I see his future on defense as similar to the career so far of Carlos Correa. The majority of scouts thought Correa would outgrow the position, but he has stayed lean and been an above-average defender throughout his major-league tenure. The one knock here, and it is a small one, is that Witt has some swing-and-miss in his game, with a tendency to get too long and overrotate just a little — something he may very well improve once he has a few hundred at bats in the majors under his belt. Right now, it’s the only separator between him and Rutschman. They both belong in the majors now and both have MVP-level upside.
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2. MJ Melendez, C (Top 100 ranking: No. 27)
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 52 in 2017
The Royals saw their plate discipline numbers do a 180 across the system last year, and Melendez was one of the main beneficiaries of their new emphasis on hitting plans for their hitters. Melendez has always had plus-plus power and a ridiculous arm, but was a hacker through the 2019 season when he hit .163/.260/.311 with a 39 percent strikeout rate in High A. It was a disastrous season that in hindsight only underscores how incredible his transformation has been. In 2021, he hit .288/.386/.625 between Double A and Triple A, and cut his strikeout rate to 22 percent. He struck out 50 fewer times in 112 more plate appearances. It’s a funny thing, but when you always hit the ball hard, and then you start making a lot more contact, you get really good results, like hitting 41 homers to lead all of minor-league baseball. The Royals did help Melendez with his mechanics as well; he’s always been a busy hitter, with a high leg kick and huge hip rotation, but he’s calmed the latter part down enough so he’s no longer overrotating and his timing on his leg kick is better. Coming into some of his strength has helped him develop a stronger base and stay more upright through contact as well. Couple the mechanical adjustments with a whole new plan at the plate and you get a premium offensive catcher with that cannon arm. He can still be too energetic behind the plate but has improved his receiving in the last two years; now it’s going to be his bat that carries him.
3. Nick Pratto, 1B (Top 100 ranking: No. 54)
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 14 in 2017
Pratto came off a 2019 season in which he hit .191/.278/.310 with nine homers and a 35 percent strikeout rate as a first baseman in High A, and the only thing keeping him from ex-prospect status was his youth. Two years and a swing overhaul later, Pratto is now very much a current prospect, hitting 36 homers in 2021 with a .383 OBP and an acceptable 29 percent strikeout rate, more than enough to have him profile as a potential everyday player right now. The Royals helped Pratto revamp his swing, eliminating some of the loop length that slowed his time to the ball and allowed him to drive the ball to the whole field instead of just his pull side. He has also vastly improved his awareness of the strike zone, part of the Royals’ system-wide overhaul of how they teach hitters to approach at-bats, although he can be too selective with pitches in the zone, and he’s always going to have some swing-and-miss in his game. He’s an above-average defender at first who should post high walk rates, helping him even if his batting averages aren’t great, and getting him to 25-30 homers a year.
4. Asa Lacy, LHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 90)
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 4 in 2020
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Lacy’s pro debut was a disaster: He walked 41 men in 52 innings, 17.3 percent of batters faced, before the Royals shut him down in late July to deal with a muscle injury in his shoulder; it didn’t require surgery but may explain the sudden loss of the strike zone. His stuff looked as good as ever, as he was up to 99, sitting mid to upper 90s, with a 55 to 60 slider and changeup that would show plus, with that last pitch good enough to give him a reverse platoon split. He looked better in the Arizona Fall League, with similar stuff and just one outing in four where he had control issues, but there’s still reasonable doubt whether he’ll return to the kind of control he showed as an amateur, when the Royals made him the No. 3 overall pick in 2020 (and he was good enough to merit discussion at No. 1). If he does, he’ll be a top-50 prospect again, maybe even top 20, with ace stuff from the left side and a big, durable build.
5. Nick Loftin, IF
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 32 in 2020
Loftin has turned out to be a better hitter than anticipated but might not be the defender at short that the Royals hoped for, especially with his arm a little short for the left side of the infield. With what he’s shown at the plate, though, it probably won’t matter, as he should be a regular at second or in center field. He’s still a very high-contact hitter, striking out 14.6 percent of the time in High A last year, and got to a little more power, enough to project him to hit 12-18 homers a year in the majors. His OBP of .374 was fueled by a balance of hitting and patience, enough to think it’s sustainable as an above-average skill for him. He played short, second and third last year, but he has the speed and internal clock to move to center as well. With the Royals already facing a surfeit of shortstops in the majors, it might make sense just to move Loftin now and clear his path to Kansas City.
6. Frank Mozzicato, LHP
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 7 in 2021
Mozzicato was a surprise pick at No. 7 overall in 2021, as the Royals had a plan to sign two other high school pitchers to over-slot deals after him, thus going under with the Connecticut left-hander who threw four straight no-hitters for his high school this past spring. Mozzicato was anywhere from 86-94 in the spring, working more 90-92 in instructs, with a plus curveball right now. He has a great delivery and a very projectable body, so I’d expect to see his velocity consistently in the 92-94 range within two years. He’s working on a changeup, never really needing one against Connecticut high school hitters, and although his control is solid he will have to develop his command. He’s a throwback pick, the sort of high school pitcher who doesn’t go in the first round very often now because he doesn’t throw hard, but before everybody and their brother threw 95, this is what top high school pitching prospects looked like.
7. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
Age: 24 | 6-4 | 245 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 319 in 2019
Pasquantino’s breakout was one of the most surprising in the minors last year; the Royals’ 11th-rounder in 2009 had hit at Old Dominion, but he ripped apart High A and kept right on ripping in Double A, with a .310/.405/.560 line at the higher level. It’s patience without passivity and pole-to-pole power, enough to project him as a possible regular at first, and he hasn’t shown a platoon split even though he’s a left-handed batter. He’s an adequate defender there at best, but if he can post a .400 OBP with 20-odd homers, who cares? Forza Azzurri!
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8. Kyle Isbel, OF
Age: 25 | 5-11 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 94 in 2018
Isbel could be a fourth or platoon outfielder in the majors right now, with a good patience/power combination against right-handed pitchers, plus speed and enough defensive skill to play center at least on a part-time basis, with 55 to 60 defense in a corner. He doesn’t hit lefties well enough now to be an everyday guy, even now that he’s fully recovered from the broken hamate that wrecked his 2019 season; he could improve with more reps against them in Triple A, although he’ll be 25 this year and otherwise needs to face big-league pitching.
9. Jon Heasley, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-3 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 392 in 2018
Heasley’s stuff keeps ticking up the further he gets away from Oklahoma State; he was 97-99 in short bursts in spring training last year with a plus changeup, jumped two levels to Double A, and earned a call-up to the majors, where he averaged 93.6 mph as a starter. He has four pitches but didn’t use his slider toward the end of 2021 so he could work on keeping his curveball, a distinct pitch he can throw for strikes. He has solid-average control, but the fastball command lags behind, which might be why he became homer-prone in Double A. With the slider back in his arsenal, he could be a fourth starter and probably help their rotation this year, even ahead of some of their more highly touted prospects.
10. Ben Kudrna, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 43 in 2021
Kudrna was the Royals’ second pick in 2021, the first beneficiary of the money they saved with Mozzicato, taking home $3 million — a mid-first round bonus. Kudrna is the other end of the spectrum from Mozzicato: His stuff is now 94-97 with a fearsome slider that’s already plus, with some feel for a changeup. He’s already big and has less projection than Mozzicato, but doesn’t need it as much given what he already throws. His delivery is fine, albeit not as easy as Mozzicato’s, and he should get to average command in time. He has the look of at least a mid-rotation starter, maybe more if he has another half-grade left in stuff.
11. Peyton Wilson, 2B
Age: 22 | 5-9 | 180 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 66 in 2021
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Wilson was the Royals’ second second-rounder last year after a disappointing spring at the University of Alabama, where he just didn’t hit like he was supposed to, and as a mediocre defender at second, that was a serious problem. Wilson has good bat speed and some pull power, but he’s too aggressive at the plate and the pull orientation gets him into trouble, especially batting right-handed. Players often get better on defense with pro instruction, and in Wilson’s case, there’s no physical reason he can’t figure out second base. He’ll have to do that and improve his eye at the plate to be a regular.
12. Angel Zerpa, LHP
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Zerpa is a low-slot lefty with three pitches and a crossfire delivery that gives him a lot of deception but makes it less likely he’ll have the command or durability to start. Zerpa can sit 93-95 and show a plus slider and plus changeup, all of which would be hard to hit even if he had a more traditional delivery and three-quarters slot. The lower angle makes him deadly to left-handed batters — he struck out 31 percent of them, walked just 3 percent and held them to a .280 OBP last year — and the changeup helps him with right-handers. It’s just a tough delivery for a starter with the cross-body action, even when he manages to keep himself on line to the plate. I think you have to let him start for now, but with a careful eye on his stuff and health to see if he needs to work in shorter outings.
13. Alec Marsh, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 70 in 2019
Marsh was limited to 25 1/3 innings over six starts (plus one AFL appearance) due to what Royals assistant general manager J.J. Picollo called “like shin splints” in his forearm’s humerus bone, which kept flaring back up. Marsh should be able to start, although in shorter outings he’s been 95-99 with a plus curveball and potentially plus slider, which is going to be tempting for the Royals if they end up contending for the wild card this year. We’ll see if his arm allows him to return to a starting role, but don’t be surprised if he moves to the bullpen this summer.
14. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-6 | 240 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 58 in 2018
Bowlan was on the fast track to the major-league rotation behind the other members of their 2018 draft class (Singer, Kowar, Lynch) when his elbow blew out, requiring Tommy John surgery that will take him out until probably June. He’s been up to 99 and gets good downhill plane from his 6-6, 240-pound frame, throwing strikes with a solid-average slider and changeup. My guess is that he’ll come back with his usual stuff but less command this year, and we won’t see the full version of Bowlan until 2023.
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15. Carter Jensen, C
Age: 18 | 6-1 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 78 in 2021
Jensen is a bat-first catcher who loves to hit and shows the potential for patience and power, enough so that it might make sense to take the 2021 third-rounder and move him to first base if he hits as expected this year. Jensen is a big kid and not terribly athletic, so there’s a ton of work to do to keep him a catcher, although the automated strike zone would help him. He has a good eye at the plate and a swing that should produce hard contact and 20-plus homer power. He might be in that Wil Myers/Paul Konerko camp of guys whose bats were two years ahead of their gloves, and who benefited from a move to another position so they’d see the majors faster and avoid injuries behind the dish.
16. Shane Panzini, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-3 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 108 in 2021
Panzini signed in the fourth round to an over-slot deal, completing the Royals’ trifecta of high school pitchers; he’s well behind the other two, though, more 93-94 with two breaking balls, with power to everything. It’s a reliever approach, all hard stuff all the time, and he’ll have to learn to back off that and really pitch to be a starter. The delivery isn’t bad, though, and he has some deception that could help him go through a lineup multiple times.
17. Darryl Collins, OF
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Collins hails from Spijkenisse, in the Netherlands, and has an unusual ability to get the bat to the ball despite growing up in Europe, where the quality of pitching isn’t comparable to what kids in the U.S. or Canada might see. He’s a big guy but hasn’t come into his strength, so right now he can put the ball in play without hitting it hard enough yet. He’s limited to left field by a well below-average arm, but the OBP skills will play if he gets to some more power. His other brother, Darnell, is also in the Royals system.
18. Noah Murdock, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-8 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 199 in 2019
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Murdock looked incredible in instructs after the shortened 2020 season, but a series of injuries to his back and shoulder limited him to just 22 2/3 innings in 2021. He’s 6-8 and had been 98-100 with high spin rates on both his fastball and curveball, but wasn’t very effective on the rare times he got on the mound last year.
19. Luca Tresh, C
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 193 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 499 in 2021
The Royals took a flier on Tresh in the 17th round, and he decided to sign rather than try to go back to NC State as a senior to get into the top three rounds. Tresh is a solid-average or better defensive catcher, and likely to improve as the Royals get him away from working on one knee, with good arm strength. He’s power over hit and did not perform at all for the Wolfpack last spring, hitting just .231/.310/.476, so he’ll have to cut down on the swing-and-miss to even be a backup. He has the power to be a regular, though, if he ever hits enough to get to it.
20. Maikel Garcia, SS
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 145 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Garcia is a plus defensive shortstop who controls the strike zone, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts across both levels of A-ball last year. He has a utility infielder floor but this profile — good defensive shortstops with contact skills — has some history of turning into a regular when the hitter in question comes into his strength in his mid-20s.
Others of note
Venezuelan outfielder Junior Marin has ridiculous power and his hard-hit rates were very high in the DSL last year, with exceptional strength for a 17-year-old; he hit a hilarious .380/.469/.696 there, leading the league in slugging, and could end up sneaking into full-season ball by the end of 2022. … Second baseman Michael Massey has worked on his defense enough to give him a chance to stay there, with 55 power, enough to be the strong side of a platoon there in the majors. … Lefty Austin Cox has worked as a starter but has never developed enough of a changeup or other pitch to get right-handed batters out; all 11 homers he gave up last year were to righties. He has two different breaking balls to get lefties and has plenty of velocity, so he could be pretty effective in the pen. … Outfielder Tyler Gentry had a 30 percent strikeout rate in High A, but also drew 29 walks in the 44 games he played before a knee injury ended his season on July 1. He has plus power and speed, although he didn’t get to show much of either last year because the injury prevented him from pushing off his back leg. … Outfielder Erick Peña, who received $3.8 million in 2019, made his pro debut in the ACL and hit .168/.256/.314, striking out more than a third of the time. He’s physical and strong with power, but couldn’t catch up to the pitching he saw and raised concerns among scouts that he didn’t have the bat speed to do so. … Omar Hernandez is a great catch-and-throw guy who didn’t hit at all in Low A last year, although the Cuban catcher was just 19 and could easily repeat the level. … Right-hander Will Klein misses a ton of bats with a mid-90s fastball and hammer curveball. He’s 6-5 and built like a starter but doesn’t have the command for it, with a high-tempo delivery that has him falling off hard to the first-base side. He struck out 41 percent of batters he faced in High A last year and could see the majors this year in relief. … Right-hander Ben Hernandez missed much of the year with forearm inflammation but did show a plus changeup when he pitched for the Royals in fall camp. He’s been working on developing his breaking ball but throwing it too much last year helped contribute to his walk rate, even though he has much better control when it comes to his fastball and change. … Right-hander Nathan Webb worked on the Royals’ grounds crew in 2015, but now he’s 96-98 and can touch 100 with an above-average changeup. He’s a straight reliever but the velocity is easy and he throws strikes; he’s also a local kid, so put him on your Guys to Root For list, and look for him to start in Double A this year.
2022 impact
Witt should play 150 games in the majors this year, somewhere. I don’t think Melendez and Pratto are far behind him, although Melendez is blocked for the short term.
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The fallen
Outfielder Seuly Matias has 80 raw power but even with some tweaks to calm down his approach, he still swings and misses way too often to see a major-league role for him, with a 36 percent strikeout rate across all levels.
Sleeper
I don’t like to overreact to DSL stats, but if Marin keeps hitting the ball this hard in the ACL and maybe a little in Low A, he would probably slip on to the top 100.
(Photo of MJ Melendez: John Sleezer / Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
