The Yankees shipped out a lot of talent in trades for Jameson Taillon, Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo, and Clay Holmes, between 10 and 14 prospects in total between January 2021 and today, so in that context, it’s impressive how much is still here, especially in young shortstops and high-ceiling arms with reliever risk. Of teams I ranked in the 20s, they probably have the most potential to see a system-wide leap in 2022, but those same prospects have a lot of variance in their expected outcomes.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Anthony Volpe, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 10)
Age: 21 | 5-11 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 30 in 2019
Volpe was the Yanks’ first-round pick in 2019, off the same high school team as this past year’s No. 2 overall pick, Jack Leiter. Volpe was the shortstop on that club, but wasn’t the traditional, tooled-out high school shortstop; he was praised for his baseball IQ, his instincts, his feel for the game, but didn’t have a clear plus tool at the time, or even that summer in short-season Pulaski. (Full disclosure: I thought the pick was a huge reach and had Volpe wildly under-ranked as recently as last February. I was wrong.) Volpe worked hard during the pandemic to add strength, and it’s evident now that he had a few plus tools all along, including his ability to hit and to play shortstop. He’s making better quality contact and driving the ball at a better angle now too, while his understanding of the strike zone looks like it’s elite. He hit .294/.423/.604 between Low A and High A as a 20-year-old, with 27 homers and 33 steals in 42 attempts, while playing above-average to plus defense at short all year. He’s almost certainly the reason the Yankees haven’t gone after one of the big shortstop free agents this winter, and I think they’re right. He’s going to be a star, and very soon at that.
2. Jasson Dominguez OF (Top 100 ranking: No. 78)
Age: 19 | 5-10 | 190 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Dominguez’s professional debut did not, in fact, cause the heavens to quake or birds to fly backwards, but he more than held his own for an 18-year-old who had zero game at-bats prior to 2021. The Yankees were aggressive with him, sending him to Low-A Tampa after just a week in the Florida Complex League, and he punched out over 30 percent of the time in the higher level, but made a lot of hard contact and took some walks. He struggled with better-quality stuff, which is unsurprising for a player of his age and inexperience; even after this past year, he still has just 228 pro plate appearances, not even a half season’s worth. The huge tools that earned him a $5 million bonus from the Yankees are intact — he’s a plus runner with an easy-plus arm, shows good range in center field and has plus raw power — but his skills are about what you’d expect from his age and lack of repetitions. He may have been overhyped when he signed, but now would be the wrong time to jump off the Martian Express.
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3. Oswald Peraza, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 95)
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Volpe wasn’t the only Yankees shortstop prospect to have a breakout year, as Peraza hit .297/.356/.477 with 38 steals in 48 attempts at three levels, finishing in Triple A. Peraza is a plus defender at short, perhaps the best defensive shortstop in the strong Yankees’ system, and would have the arm and hands to move to third base if the Yankees made Volpe their shortstop of the future. At the plate, Peraza has strong hands and wrists and at least 55 game power now, projecting to plus, but it’s more power than hit right now despite what the stat line might indicate. He needs to improve his plate discipline to be able to succeed in Triple A or the majors, as he swings at too many pitches he either can’t hit or just can’t hit well, and isn’t likely to become an above-average OBP guy in the future. He’s going to be a 20-plus homer guy, with plus defense at short and value on the bases, which would make him a regular on many teams, even if he doesn’t end up doing so for the Yankees.
4. Luis Medina, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Medina continues to show premium stuff and below-average command and control, despite a good delivery he can repeat and surprising athleticism for his build. Medina can hit 99 as a starter, getting up to 101 in the Futures Game, with a plus curveball and fringe-average changeup. It’s probably 35 command on the scouting report, but there are days it’s 45, even 50, and days you just want to cover your eyes before someone gets killed — but that’s a sign to me that the potential for better command is in there. This isn’t Nuke LaLoosh kind of wildness, not every time out, and I still think he ends up as a valuable big-league pitcher in some role, whether it’s as an above-average starter or a 40-percent strikeout-rate reliever.
5. Luis Gil, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
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Gil has two plus pitches in his 94-98 mph fastball, which can touch 100 and has very high spin, and a short, tight mid-80s slider that he can throw for strikes or drop below the zone for a swing-and-miss. He acquitted himself well in multiple call-ups to the majors last year, even though it seemed like he was fighting for his roster spot every time he came up, getting left-handed batters with sliders rather than using his fringy changeup. That’s not a typical formula for a right-handed starter, although Gil’s slider can be cutter-like and might help him be a five-inning/twice-through-the-order guy. If the changeup improved, I’d say he’s a middle-of-the-rotation guy right now. If it doesn’t, he could still be a back-end guy, or an outstanding long reliever/swingman.
6. Hayden Wesneski, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 195 in 2019
Wesneski looks the part of a mid-rotation starter, 6-foot-3, 210, with a delivery he can repeat, and has a better chance to get there now that the Yankees have helped him tighten up his curveball, giving him a potential out pitch to go along with his 93-96 mph fastball and hard but straight upper-80s changeup. He’s hit 100 in shorter outings, so that’s always a potential fallback if his fastball, which Double-A hitters squared up a little too often, doesn’t let him stay in the rotation. He has the out pitch and above-average to plus control, with the right build, so I’d let him continue working toward that league-average starter upside.
7. Clarke Schmidt, RHP
Age: 26 | 6-1 | 209 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 16 in 2017
Schmidt started the year on the IL with a muscle strain above his elbow, so while his UCL — which has already been replaced once — was intact, it kept him on the shelf for more than half of the season. He didn’t reach Triple A until late August, pitching very well there in four short starts, but in his two major-league stints his stuff was down from 2020. When healthy, he can show huge spin rates on his slider and curveball, with a fastball that sits 94-95 in short stints and is still 92-95 when he starts, along with enough of a changeup to be a viable starter. He really does not have any history of durability, even with a delivery the Yankees helped him streamline after they took him in the first round in 2017, so he’s back in the group of Yankees pitching prospects who have starter ingredients but might end up in relief.
8. Everson Pereira, OF
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 191 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Pereira signed back in 2017 for a $1.5 million bonus, but the Venezuelan outfielder played in just 59 games before the pandemic began due to various injuries. That hasn’t exactly improved, as Pereira got hurt again in 2021 and played just 49 games, but he raked when he played, showing good bat speed, plus power, and above-average running speed, while playing at least average defense in center. Pereira cut down on his chase rate, posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career (27.6 percent) as a result, and hit 20 homers in just 221 plate appearances across both levels of A-ball and three games in the Florida Complex League. His injuries have been unrelated to each other, but he’s been injury-prone so far, which is about as good an indicator as we can get of someone’s ability to stay healthy in the future. He’s so tooled up, though, that he’s still a top 10 prospect in this system because of what he could do if he got in a full season of at-bats.
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9. Alexander Vargas, SS
Age: 20 | 5-11 | 148 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
A Cuban shortstop signed for a $2.5 million bonus in 2018, Vargas is still undersized but has shown he can spray the field with line drives as a hitter, while showing smooth actions in the field that can make difficult plays look easy. He’s a switch-hitter with excellent hand-eye, although right now it’s more like average bat speed than plus, and he still needs to get a lot stronger — he’s not his listed 148 pounds anymore, but he could put on another 20 pounds pretty easily. The Yankees had him repeat the Complex League at age 19, which I presume is because they saw the lack of strength, but his skills were otherwise ready for Low A and I expect him to go there this year and at least hit for a high average, just without much power. His glove gives him a high floor.
10. Austin Wells, C
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 28 in 2020
Wells can hit, which is good because the odds remain heavily against him staying at catcher. He certainly wants to catch and has improved from “no chance” to “unlikely at best,” with more arm strength (but still below average) and some better actions behind the dish, but it’s never going to be average and will always lag behind his bat. He hit .274/.377/.473 in 38 games in High A to end the season, the best read on his abilities since he played at the University of Arizona in one of the best conferences in college baseball. He showed 55 power and an excellent eye, but the hit tool was more of a soft 55 than the projected plus out of the draft, and with the rest of his tools, he might need to hit .300 to end up a regular at first or DH.
11. Trey Sweeney, SS
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 20 in 2021
The Yankees’ first-round pick in 2021, Sweeney hit .382/.522/.712 for Eastern Illinois, dominating bad pitching in the Ohio Valley Conference. He hasn’t done much to bulk up yet, getting by on natural ability, so while he didn’t show well against good fastballs in college, that could change as he gets stronger. That will also likely move him off shortstop, where he’s already on the big side at 6-foot-4, 200, although his actions are good for the position and he’s athletic enough that he has some chance to stay there. It’ll come down to whether he can hit pro velocity and hit it well, which we won’t see until he gets to High A.
12. Ken Waldichuk, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 165 in 2019
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Waldichuk started in High A and threw 30 2/3 innings innings without allowing a run. He only gave up 12 hits and 13 walks, striking out 55, so the Yanks bumped him right up to Double A, where he still produced but was more appropriately challenged by hitters who wouldn’t chase his stuff out of the zone. Waldichuk works heavily off his mid-90s fastball, throwing four pitches including a slider that might be plus, but despite the High-A stats, he’s not a command guy at all, and more experienced hitters were more hip to his tactics. His changeup is also his worst pitch, so right-handed batters got to him for 12 of the 13 homers he allowed. If he tightens up his command, especially with his two breaking pitches, he could end up as a starter. He’s more likely to end up as a swingman/sixth-starter type who has some dominant outings and some where he can’t get through the lineup once because he’s missing down and away.
13. Yoendrys Gomez, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Gomez missed most of 2021 with a sore arm plus a case of COVID-19, limiting him to 23 2/3 innings across nine pitch-limited starts. He wore down at the end of 2019, a year when he mostly sat 94-95 with two secondaries that projected to no worse than average, and now he’s thrown just those 23 2/3 innings in two years due to the lost 2020 season, so I’m not sure what the path forward is for his development as a starter.
14. Randy Vasquez, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Vasquez was dominant in both levels of A-ball before struggling in four starts in Double A to end the season, but I think he’s just getting started. He’s 91-94 now with a four-pitch mix including a very promising changeup, but he looks like he’s going to throw a lot harder, probably soon, even though there’s some effort to the delivery and a short stride. His slider is slurvy while his curveball is tighter, and one of them should end up an average pitch. He comes from a low three-quarters slot and pitches like he is still learning how to mix all his weapons. I don’t love how he does it mechanically, but I like what comes out, and I think in a year I’ll probably love what comes out, and we can see how the delivery evolves as he gets stronger.
15. Josh Breaux, C
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 61 in 2018
Breaux is a long shot in both directions as a player — he’s a long shot to catch, and a long shot to get on base enough, but if he does both, he’s going to be quite valuable. Breaux showed some power in 2019 but he really found it in 2021, with 23 homers in 90 games, even holding his power in a late-season promotion to Double A where he otherwise struggled to a .274 OBP. He is not patient or disciplined, and can get way out in front of offspeed stuff when he’s trying to murder a fastball. Behind the plate, scouts largely say he’s very unlikely to catch, but defensive metrics, including those from other teams, say he’s fine back there. He might have some kind of role as a part-time catcher, part-time DH if he shows any improvement to his approach — and he has to stay on the field, as his 90 games played last year was a career high.
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16. Deivi García, RHP
Age: 23 | 5-9 | 163 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Someone changed García’s delivery before 2021, dropping his arm slot and turning him into some kind of weird slider monster, and it ruined him. He was never a command guy, working with four pitches, just average spin on his fastball, but great deception and a willingness to throw any pitch in any count, so he had success all the way up through Triple A. Last year he walked 68 guys in 90 2/3 innings and got hammered when he was in the zone, allowing 102 hits and 21 homers. There was always risk here, between his size, some effort in the delivery, and the fringy control, but the lower arm slot knocked his command and control down further while also costing him some deception. He might not even be in their top 20 at this point.
17. Brendan Beck, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 55 in 2021
Beck has plus command of a fastball that’s up to 96 and a slider that projects to be above average, part of a four-pitch mix that gives him a high floor as a back-end starter. His delivery is simple and quiet, so he repeats it well without much effort. He struck out nearly a third of batters he faced for Stanford last spring, more than you’d expect from his stuff, so perhaps he’ll surprise in pro ball as well.
18. Antonio Gomez, C
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Gomez barely played in his pro debut in 2019, which came a year after he signed for a $600,000 bonus, so 2021 was his first extended action in the minors. He crushed the GCL before a late promotion to Low A, where he continued to show an improved approach — something player development has worked to help him develop — but put the ball on the ground too much, which is an unfortunate byproduct of how his swing works. He has a plus arm and should be able to stay behind the plate, although he’ll be on the bigger side for catchers once he fills out his upper body. He needs some swing help to get to more power and stop hitting the ball on the ground so often. If he gets that, he has everyday upside.
19. Oswaldo Cabrera, 3B
Age: 23 | 5-10 | 145 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
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Cabrera went 20/20 for Double-A Somerset last year, hitting 24 homers in 109 games there, plus five more in Triple A, although he had a .311 OBP, right in line with his career norms. It’s power over hit, with the ability to handle third or second, which might make him a regular for some teams but more likely points to a bench role.
20. Elijah Dunham, OF
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 213 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 1204 in 2019
The Yankees signed Dunham as an undrafted free agent during the pandemic — he’d been drafted in the 40th round by Pittsburgh in 2019 but didn’t sign — and he’s become more than just an org player, showing good feel for the strike zone, above-average speed, and above-average power. He’s 24 this year, and probably needs to move to Double A, but he’s got enough physical tools and is so incredibly competitive that I think he’s going to get to the majors as an extra outfielder.
Others of note
Right-hander Matt Sauer returned from Tommy John surgery, showing mostly the same stuff as before, reaching 95-96 with a power breaking ball, but still has a rough delivery that always inhibited his command. He had trouble with the curve last year, but he also was just awful with men on base, and I can’t tell if that was a fluke or something in the delivery. … Their sixth-round pick, Richard Fitts, was a potential first-rounder in February, but hurt his foot and ended up out of the Auburn rotation. He has a plus split-change and a fastball up to 95 when he starts, with a fringy slider, and if he’s completely healthy this year he might be a steal. … Left-hander Brock Selvidge, the Yankees’ third-round pick in 2021, bulked up so much during the pandemic that he lost a grade of velocity on his fastball and saw his curve and his control regress. It’s a reasonable bet that a pro player development system could help improve his conditioning and maybe turn him back into the guy who was up to 96 with a future-plus breaking ball. … Second baseman Cooper Bowman, their fourth-rounder in 2021, is a 55 to 60 runner who puts the ball in play a ton without power, which might make him a tweener, but the contact skill is good enough that perhaps a swing change or tweak could get him to 15ish homers a year and make him a regular.
2022 impact
Schmidt or Gil could end up making starts in the Bronx, while those guys, Wesneski, and Waldichuk could all end up contributing in relief. I don’t believe anyone currently in the system will make a real impact in 2022, though.
The fallen
Anthony Seigler, their first-round pick in 2018, has played just 95 games in the two-and-a-half seasons since he signed due to multiple injuries, and when he’s played, he hasn’t hit, with a .219/.324/.391 line last year as a 22-year-old in High A.
Sleeper
Pereira has top 100 tools; a few years ago I named him my No. 101 prospect and said if he was healthy the next year he’d probably end up in the top 50. Instead, he hurt his ankle, played only 18 ineffective games, and seemed like he was on the fast train to nowhere. I think he’s back.
(Photo of Anthony Volpe: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
