A year ago at this time, the 2022 MLB Draft was shaping up to be a very good one, maybe a great one, with depth in college pitching, middle infielders at both levels and some high-ceiling high school bats. That, and I cannot emphasize this enough, is no longer the case.
As many as seven college pitchers who could have gone in the first round are out for the rest of the season with injuries, including Connor Prielipp (Alabama), Reggie Crawford (Connecticut), Peyton Pallette (Arkansas), and Henry Williams (Duke), all of whom underwent Tommy John surgery. And Carson Whisenhunt (East Carolina) was suspended indefinitely for an undisclosed reason. Tennessee’s Blake Tidwell also hasn’t pitched this season due to a shoulder injury, and we’re waiting for an update on Landon Sims (Mississippi State), who underwent an MRI on his elbow earlier this week. In this case, no news is not good news.
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That impacts the entire draft because so many teams flee to the safety of college pitching when it comes to draft day: Nine college pitchers went in the first 30 picks last year, nine the year before, six the year before (plus one two-year college pitcher). My top 30 below has just four college pitchers on it, one in the top 20. The last time we didn’t have a college pitcher taken in the top 10 picks was 1979, when Rod Boxberger was the first selected at 11th overall. That could happen this year, as well.
The lack of college pitchers worthy of first-round picks, at least right now, is going to push a lot of other players up into those vacancies. The teams that preferred the safety of the college arm may simply run some “safe” college bats up their boards. Teams that wanted pitchers will have to look to the high school ranks, despite the higher risk of that category of players, or perhaps to one of the handful of hard-throwing two-year college pitchers. It also means there’s a real opportunity for any college pitcher who shows better stuff and can stay healthy all year.
- Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan School
Yes, that’s Andruw Jones’ son, one of four sons of former major leaguers in this top 30 – they don’t get extra credit for it, but it turns out that genetic inheritance is a thing. Druw Jones has huge power and could play plus defense in center in the majors right now, with some questions about how good his hit tool will be in pro ball but none about his ability to hit right now. He has elite tools, and is taller and more athletic than his father was at the same age, although at 18, Andruw was hitting 25 homers in a year in A-ball. Druw is the best prospect in the class right now, although not so overwhelmingly so that he is a lock to be the first pick.
- Termarr Johnson, SS, Mays HS, Atlanta
If Johnson were 6-foot-1, he’d be the consensus top guy in the draft class; and even though he’s 5-foot-8, he’s still going to go around the top five picks. A left-handed hitter, he has a fantastic swing and incredible hand-eye coordination. With a 70 hit tool and above-average power, he is probably moving to second base in pro ball but with All-Star upside and the potential to lead the league in batting average.
- Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy
Green has explosive bat speed and a big-league body already (6-3, 225 pounds) with quick-twitch actions, plus speed and plus raw power. He has a chance to be a 30-30 guy and stay in centerfield if he hits enough for it, with concerns about his breaking ball recognition carrying over from last summer into this spring so far.
- Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
Lee was 38th on my draft board in 2019, but ended up at Cal Poly, where he’s been good when healthy – he’s already had knee surgery, and hamstring and groin injuries – hitting .365/.422/.654 for the Mustangs and leading the Cape Cod League in slugging last summer. He’s easily the best college prospect in this class, which reflects both his own talent and the paucity of high-ceiling talent in the college crop this year. He’s a plus hitter with great feel for the strike zone – it won’t last, but he has 12 walks and one strikeout so far this year, which, if my math is correct, is a ratio of 12 to 1 – and should have above-average power. He’s a switch-hitter but his left-handed swing is substantially better. I don’t think he’s a lock to move off shortstop, although he could be bumped on a team with a 60 or better defender there. Even at third base, this is a potential All-Star package.
- Cameron Collier, 3B, Chipola College
The son of former Expo and Pirate outfielder Lou Collier, Cameron was originally in the 2023 class but graduated early and headed to two-year Chipola, where he’s playing exceptionally well as a 17-year-old. He has an outstanding left-handed swing with advanced feel to hit for his age, projecting to above-average power, and a plus arm and quick hands to end up an above-average defender at third base. He has a chance to put himself at or near the very top of the draft by facing better competition this spring than any of the other teenagers in the draft.
- Brock Jones, OF, Stanford
The left-handed-hitting Jones has power and some speed, with evident strength, but he bars his lead arm and has a very stiff front side through contact, which may be why he has more swing and miss in the zone than you’d like for a player of his potential.
- Logan Tanner, C, Mississippi State
A disciplined hitter with power, Tanner is a no-doubt catcher with a cannon of an arm, the sort of well-rounded college backstop who nearly always goes in the first round, even in a stronger draft class. He has just a fringy hit tool even with a solid approach without much chase, which is his only real deficit as a player, but Joey Bart went second overall and Tanner is a comparable prospect.
- Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
Jung has one of the most bizarre approaches I have ever seen on an actual prospect and I have no idea how he’s had this much success – he’s hit .326/.473/.658 for the Red Raiders with more walks than strikeouts – with a Little League swing. He holds the bat way above his back shoulder, and his right wrist is turned 20 or 30 degrees on the bat, instead of holding it flush. Yet he gets the bat to the ball and makes hard contact – with metal, at least, as he didn’t hit well on the Cape last summer. The performance is undeniable but that’s a scary swing.
- Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
Parada was 37th on my draft board in 2020 as a high school catcher out of California, but he wasn’t selected in that year’s five-round draft due to his strong commitment to Georgia Tech, where he’s now an age-eligible sophomore. He’s off to a hilarious start this year, hitting .480/.559/.940 in non-conference play, and he’s an offensive catcher who should stay behind the plate but won’t be more than fringy there. If he keeps mashing through ACC play, which he didn’t do last spring, he should get into the top half of the first round.
- Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford (Ga.) HS
Lesko is the top high school pitcher in the class and has been that guy for at least two years now, winning the Gatorade Player of the Year honor as an underclassman last year. (The previous winner, Jared Kelley, struggled last year in the White Sox system.) Lesko has size, arm speed, a good delivery, plus velocity regularly up to 97 mph, with a plus changeup. The only negative is that he’s a high school pitcher, but he’ll be boosted by the worst-in-decades college pitching crop in this draft class.
- Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida
Thompson has a sweet left-handed swing and has come out like a house on fire this year, matching his 2021 home run total (5) in just 13 games. The sophomore-eligible corner outfielder had a chance to be a high pick in 2020 had the pandemic not shut his season down, and the weak college class overall may help push him well into the first round.
- Chase Delauter, OF, James Madison
Delauter came into the year as one of the top college bats, with high walk and contact rates when he’s healthy, although his start to 2022 hasn’t gone as planned. Delauter has a history of mashing against mediocre pitching, but got embarrassed by two lefties at Florida State (Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbart, both second-round types) earlier this season, with some ugly swings on 88-91 in the zone, and he’s been out since Saturday with an undisclosed injury that will keep him out at least seven days. He’s got a plus arm and will end up in right field in pro ball. He should hit right-handers but may see some platoon split issues when he gets to pro ball.
- Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
Cross had a huge sophomore year for the Hokies in 2021 and carried that into the summer, where he was one of the best hitters on the collegiate national team. He can really hit a fastball, with line-drive power that should produce a ton of doubles, although he has a very stiff front side and there are reasonable questions about his ball-strike recognition after he struggled in conference play last year. He’s limited to a corner outfield spot, so he needs to either get on base more or show more home run power to justify the first-round pick.
- Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) HS
The son of Matt Holliday and nephew of Oklahoma State coach Josh Holliday, Jackson has been one of the bigger risers this spring due to increased belief in his hit tool. He doesn’t project to have his dad’s power but should end up above-average. He’s not likely to stay at shortstop, and his front side goes very soft through contact, which can cause problems with breaking stuff moving away from him.
- Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall-Heath (Texas) HS
Williams is maybe 5-8, but he can really hit, showing great feel for the barrel all last summer against advanced competition, with hard contact against all kinds of pitching. He’s a plus runner who should stay at shortstop and has more power than you’d expect from his size. He’s not as famous as Termarr Johnson, but if Johnson can go in the top five this year, Williams belongs in the first round, too.
- Gavin Turley, OF, Hamilton HS, Chandler, Ariz.
Turley is a 70 runner with plus raw power and good bat speed, with swing and miss in the zone that keeps him from being a top 10 prospect in this draft class. He should be able to stay in center field, given his speed, although he’s not a plus defender yet. He’s at the same high school that produced Cody Bellinger and had a third-round pick last year in Brock Selvidge.
- Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee
You’ll hear the Hunter Renfroe comparison a lot with Beck, as they have similar builds, similar power/speed/arm toolsets, and similar propensities to strike out too much, especially on sliders. He’s built like a college linebacker and might move well enough to handle center in the minors, with right field far more likely. Renfroe turned into a platoon player, and for Beck to avoid that fate he’ll have to show better ability to pick up spin from right-handers.
- Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas
Yep, that’s Carl Crawford’s kid, making CC the youngest of the four MLB dads with sons on this top 30 ranking (he’s 40). Justin Crawford is a left-handed hitter and an 80 runner. While at the plate, he takes an enormous stride that beggars belief, with great bat speed but not power, and he’s not as advanced a hitter as most of his peers at the top of the class. He’s a bet on athleticism and genetics, with significant upside thanks to his speed.
- Adam Mazur, RHP, Iowa
The 6-3 Mazur showed a plus breaking ball on the Cape last summer, and now he’s sitting 94-95 mph with a high spin rate as well as a potentially above-average changeup. He transferred to Iowa this spring after spending two years at South Dakota State.
- Zack Neto, SS, Campbell
Neto does it awkwardly, with a high leg kick that would screw up most hitters’ timing, but he’s hit everywhere he’s played, with wood on the Cape last summer and both this spring and last for Campbell. He finished in the top five on Cape Cod in on-base percentage and slugging, and has a career .385/.476/.684 line for the Camels. He has a chance to stay at shortstop, with a plus arm and enough agility to at least make it a possibility, although he could certainly handle second base if he has to move.
- Brock Porter, RHP, St. Mary’s Prep, Orchard Lake, Mich.
Porter is already up to 97 mph with a fast arm and promise to both his curveball and changeup, with projection left on his 6-4 frame. His Michigan prep school could end up having three high draftees this year, along with catcher Ike Irish and outfielder Nolan Schubert. Also, his name is one letter away from being two different styles of beer, which at least opens up huge marketing potential for him.
- Walter Ford, RHP, Pace (Florida) HS
Ford sits 94-95 mph with a fast arm, coming from a high slot after a slight plunge in the back, with a mid-80s slider and a projectable 6-2 frame for future durability. He doesn’t have a great third pitch yet and still needs to improve his command and control.
- Cole Phillips, RHP, Boerne (Texas) HS
Phillips has been up to 98 mph already this spring, with a fast arm and some depth on a downward-breaking curveball, getting on top of everything well at release. He’s still got some room to fill out but has a narrower frame than most projection guys. Like most high school pitchers, he still has to work on fastball command and needs a viable changeup, but he has the arm speed and delivery to be a starter.
- Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas
It’s a big year for smaller hitters, as the 5-8 Moore, son of Royals team president Dayton Moore, has entered first-round discussions thanks to his high baseball IQ and compact swings from both sides of the plate, as well as his youth – he won’t even turn 20 until the end of March. He’s limited to second base and hasn’t hit for great averages in college so far, with a career .293/.390/.536 line.
- Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama
Prielipp was at least a possibility for the first-overall pick this year before he got hurt last year, throwing just once before his elbow gave out, and he’s probably not going to throw at all for the Crimson Tide this spring. As long as teams get to see he’s healthy, though, he could easily end up in the first round. As a freshman in 2020, he was sitting 93-94 mph with a plus slider in the mid to upper 80s.
- Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State
Campbell is 6-7 with good life on a solid-average fastball and 55 or better changeup, with a good history of throwing strikes and dominating left-handed batters. His breaking ball is fringy, with good shape in the low 70s but not enough deception to get hitters to chase it. His delivery is simple, letting him change angles on the fastball, and he repeats it well enough to start, giving him a solid floor, and there’s the potential for more velocity here too.
- Jacob Berry, OF, LSU
Berry transferred to LSU from Arizona this year, coming off a 17-homer year for the Wildcats, and he shows feel to hit with power from both sides of the plate. He’s a poor defender in an outfield corner, though, and might be the next Seth Beer, a future DH who has to mash to get to the majors.
- Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy
Ferris, a teammate of probable top-five pick Elijah Green and possible first-rounder Brady Neal, is 93-97 mph with good ride and gets two-plane break on his curveball. He has a changeup with a lot of action but doesn’t have great feel for it yet. There’s effort here with a very high slot and hard fall-off to the third-base side, putting him behind some of the high school arms with cleaner mechanics. He still offers projection on his 6-4 frame with big velocity from the left side, and he’ll be seen by a big crowd every start.
- Luis Ramirez, RHP, Long Beach State
Ramirez is the classic “won’t light up the guns” starter, working with a tremendous two-seamer that has great secondary characteristics and gets a ton of groundballs, with two solid secondaries in the slider and changeup, and he’s come out throwing more strikes than ever.
- Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny HS
Young, a Duke commit, has a solid mix of tools and performance, with a very good feel to hit right now and above-average speed and throwing strength, along with the chance to stay at shortstop. He hit just about everything last summer, struggling just with left-handers’ sliders, even with a deep hand load and big swing that you’d think would produce more power and more swing and miss. He’s going to face extra skepticism, as the latest Pittsburgh-area high school kid to go in the first round, Austin Hendrick, turned out to be nowhere near ready to hit pro pitching.
(Photo of Druw Jones: Courtesy of Team USA)
