Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee is the top college position player in this year’s MLB Draft – the top college any position, really, with no competition on the pitching side – and his performance backs that up, as he’s hit .427/.526/.755 for the Mustangs with 25 walks and six strikeouts so far this year. He’s going to be one of the safest bets at the top of the draft this year, but he probably can’t offer the upside of the high school players in that same echelon.
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Lee does have a great approach: He doesn’t swing and miss much, almost never doing so on fastballs, and doesn’t expand the zone easily. It’s unorthodox at the plate, and noisy when he gets his hands going, turning almost his whole body and putting a lot of force (and effort) into his swing. His hand-eye just seems to be so good that he doesn’t whiff, even though he makes some lower-quality contact. He’s definitely not a shortstop, as he’s a 45 runner with enough thickness in his lower half that scouts all put him at another position – most likely third base since he can throw and his hands are very good.
Lee, who was No. 38 on my draft board back in 2019 but chose to play for his dad at Cal Poly rather than sign, seems like the ideal player for any team drafting up that doesn’t want the higher risk of a high school player. There are other college players who could go in the top 10, but all have some variable about them that makes them riskier than Lee. What I don’t see here is the ceiling of guys like Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson or even Elijah Green, the three high school players most likely to go in the top five (you might add Jackson Holliday, Matt’s son, after his strong showing in Arizona last month). Lee doesn’t project to plus power, isn’t a burner on the bases, and doesn’t project to plus defense at second or third, although he could probably be a strong 55 at either spot with time. That’s a solid pick in a weak draft class, but some teams might prefer to roll the dice on the chance they’ll get a superstar.
• Catcher Kevin Parada was No. 37 on my draft board in 2020, and probably would have gone in that range if we’d had a full spring season, but instead he headed to Georgia Tech, where he’s now sophomore-eligible and likely to go in the top-10 picks as one of the best college players in the class.
Parada is off to a tremendous start for the Yellow Jackets, hitting .374/.476/.691 with more walks than strikeouts, while playing solid enough defense behind the plate. He has an unusual setup, to say the least, starting out with the bat lying dead over his back shoulder. I don’t know what it is with hitters in this draft starting their bats in the most ridiculous positions possible (you should see Jace Jung), but I’m over it already. Parada does hit, despite the setup, and crushes fastballs, hitting one from Virginia lefty Nate Savino well out to left field one at-bat after lining 92 for a single to left. He’s shown strong plate discipline and pitch recognition in his year-plus in college, with just a slight vulnerability on changeups but enough of an eye that it hasn’t been a problem.
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Parada is a bat-first catcher who would probably hit well enough to profile as a regular even if he had to move to DH, although that’s obviously a huge hit to his value. He caught fine on Friday, and while his arm strength has been a question in the past, Virginia didn’t run on him much, with one steal in a single attempt. He’s probably the second-best college player in the class after Lee, and would go in the top 10 if the draft were held today, with a chance to get into the top five.
• Georgia Tech right-hander Zach Maxwell was No. 67 on my draft board in 2019, but he’s had trouble throwing strikes and was bounced from the Wreck’s rotation after five starts. He came into the Virginia series with 19 walks in 19.1 innings on the season, and in his last appearance five days earlier, gave up two homers and two other hits while facing just five batters. He came into Friday’s game in relief to protect a two-run lead, and responded with his best outing since late February, throwing four scoreless innings and walking two while striking out six. Maxwell was 93-96 mph with a 55 slider in the low 80s, working aggressively with both pitches, coming into the game with the bases loaded and nobody out – not the typical situation for a guy who’s shown some unfamiliarity with the strike zone – and escaping the jam without allowing a run. All of the power he’s given up this year has been to right-handed batters, but lefties have a .453 OBP against him, drawing two-thirds of the walks he’s allowed. He’s not a starter with no third pitch and this control issue, but he has a great arm and two pitches that could be the foundation for some pro team to try to develop him as a starter, especially by finding a weapon for him to use against lefties.
• Virginia centerfielder Chris Newell, No. 97 on my draft board in 2019, bounced back after a dismal sophomore year, already hitting more homers this spring (7) than he did in all of 2021 (5), and drawing more walks, as well (19 vs. 17). He’s a plus runner who can handle center field with above-average range, and there’s power in his swing thanks to good leverage from his lower half. He’s a dead fastball hitter, however, and doesn’t pick up offspeed stuff at all, whiffing half the time he offers at breaking stuff and struggling almost as much with changeups. The hit tool is the hardest one to teach, and while Newell has probably pushed himself back into the third- or fourth-round range with better results this year, there’s a cap to how good he can be without improving his pitch recognition.
• Virginia lefty Nate Savino never appeared on any of my draft boards because he chose to matriculate early in Charlottesville, skipping the draft entirely. He had a very good chance to go in the first round in 2020 as a polished lefty who threw strikes and projected to gain some velocity, but two years later, he’s a polished lefty who throws strikes and hasn’t gained any velocity. Savino was 89-93 mph, mostly 90-91 mph, against Georgia Tech on Friday, with an average curveball and fringy changeup, going to the breaker even in more typical changeup counts against righties. He’s online to the plate and has little effort in his delivery, so there might be ways to get a velocity boost in pro ball. The command and control that marked him in high school and through the first month of 2022, when he walked five guys in his first five starts, were not there on Friday, when he walked three in four innings and gave up six runs, with no help from his defense. He walked five the week before against Wake Forest, as well. If Savino is throwing a ton of strikes at 89-93 mph, he could be a second-rounder. If he’s not throwing strikes at 89-93 mph, I don’t know what he is.
The broader issue here is that, if you’re a high school player and the college that recruited you tells you to matriculate early, you need to run in the opposite direction. There is no circumstance where you are better off economically in a world where you have fewer choices. None. Matriculating early never leaves the players better off; the best they can do is hold serve, but the downside is significant. Why would you ever decline the opportunity for someone to make you a risk-free offer of what might be a million dollars or more? The worst outcome for a player in the draft is to go undrafted, or be drafted so low that any financial offer is inferior to the option of going to college. The worst outcome for a player who chooses to skip the draft completely by matriculating early is that he gets worse in college or is injured, and then is never drafted at all or gets a tiny fraction of his worth out of high school.
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• Virginia has a pair of hitters to watch for in next year’s draft. Catcher Kyle Teel is super-athletic and can really hit, with tremendous hand acceleration and above-average speed on the bases. He smoked a triple to right-center off a 91 mph fastball in his first at-bat on Friday, and there’s probably another grade of power to come. He’s off to a fair start with some bad BABIP luck so far. Third baseman Jake Gelof, the younger brother of Oakland A’s prospect Zack (a former Cavalier himself), is currently leading NCAA hitters with 14 homers as a sophomore and plays solid defense at third. UVA had two top-10 picks back in 2017, with Pavin Smith and Adam Haseley, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them do it again in 2023 with these two stars.
• Catcher Daniel Susac is the younger brother of former Giants prospect Andrew Susac, another power-hitting catcher whose path to the majors was derailed by concussions. Daniel is now at the University of Arizona, and he’s yet another hitter with a bizarre start at the plate, taking a big step forward while crouching before bringing his front leg back to set up in a normal stance. I caught him against Grand Canyon University on Tuesday night before heading to the airport to catch a redeye home – also seeing potential 2023 first-rounder Jacob Wilson, son of longtime Pirates/Cardinals infielder Jack – and got a Susac homer, showing just how easy his power is. He’s a big kid for a catcher, listed at 6-foot-4, 218 pounds, with long levers and the ability to hit stuff out of the zone better than most prospects his height. He does expand the zone and chase too often, and his offspeed recognition also isn’t great. He’s performing so far, but I’d like to see how this holds up against Pac 12 pitching the rest of the way. A college catcher with production and some defensive chops is a lock to go in the top-50 picks, but I don’t think he’s at Parada’s level as a hitter or can match Mississippi State’s Logan Tanner on defense.
• A few weeks back, I went to see a Tuesday matchup between Virginia Tech and James Madison to see two other potential first-round college bats in Gavin Cross (VT) and Chase Delauter (JMU). Cross is the better hitting prospect, showing good bat speed and an ability to use the whole field, striding a bit too long but keeping his weight back well through contact. (He’s actually been outhit this season by catcher Cade Hunter, whose father, Scott, is the Mariners’ scouting director.) Delauter has the better stat line, but he’s been awful when facing better competition, and Virginia Tech clearly knew the book on him. He opens his front hip early and cheats on velocity, so lefties can spin stuff away from him with impunity. I don’t think he’s a first-rounder at this point.
(Photo of Kevin Parada in 2019: Mike Carlson / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
