Atlanta’s run to the World Series title didn’t come at the expense of its farm system, with the team trading second-tier prospects and some young big leaguers while keeping all of their main guys — almost everyone who projects to be a regular or a starting pitcher is still in the system. They’re also starting to see the fruits of their novel 2019 draft strategy, where they spread their extra bonus pool over a number of high school players taken after the 10th round.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Cristian Pache, OF (Top 100 Ranking: No. 38)
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Pache began 2021 in the big leagues, didn’t hit, went on the injured list, came back, didn’t hit some more, went on the injured list, was optioned to Triple A, and never returned to the majors, even when Ronald Acuña Jr. tore his ACL. Pache has only had 72 plate appearances in the majors so far, far too few to change his long-term outlook, but there’s no sugar-coating just how not-ready for big-league pitching he is. Good fastballs got him and so did offspeed stuff, after which there isn’t much left to hit. Pache came into 2021 with less than a month’s worth of games above Double A, and the lack of reps against real pitching in 2020 may have hurt him more than most players, given how immature his approach and pitch recognition are. Pache remains an elite defender in center, and he has power if he can hit enough to get to it, so the bar for him to clear to be a regular is not that high — a .300 OBP and 20-25 homers would make him an above-average regular given his defensive value. I firmly believe he’ll get there, but it may take another 400 plate appearances in Triple A before he’s ready to contribute in the majors.
2. Michael Harris, OF (Top 100 Ranking: No. 61)
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 98 in 2019
Harris was Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2019 out of a Georgia high school, and was so impressive in his pro debut in the Gulf Coast League that Atlanta had him finish the summer in Low A. He started 2021 like a house on fire in High A, struggled in mid-summer, then started to make some adjustments at the plate, notably seeing more pitches to finish strongly. If this top 100 were something I did weekly (please, no), he probably would have surged on the list, dropped off in July and then re-entered around Labor Day. Harris is tooled out, a 70 runner who played 70 defense in center and showed plus power against fastballs. He struggled with pitch recognition, especially against offspeed stuff, and his production dipped as a result in midseason. There’s some reason to think he made a real adjustment later in the year, however, with a 10 percent walk rate in the second half as well. He doesn’t have to be Eddie Yost to have value; he’s going to save a bunch of runs in center, and the 25 homer/20 steal upside I discussed in my comment on him last February is still very much in play.
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3. Shea Langeliers, C (Top 100 Ranking: No. 80)
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 9 in 2019
Langeliers hasn’t risen to the status of the many elite catching prospects in baseball, but it’s not a mark against his defense — he can throw with the best of them, he’s a solid-average receiver and he has plus power, just lacking the hit tool upside of the likes of Gabriel Moreno and Francisco Alvarez. At the plate, he’s more of a mistake hitter right now, but during the pandemic he gained the strength to punish those mistakes, with 22 homers in 92 Double-A games before a late promotion to Triple-A Gwinnett. Langeliers threw out 42 percent of opposing base stealers last year, after throwing out 41 percent in his debut season in 2019, but he’s somewhat stiff behind the dish, so while his hands are good he may never be more than an average or slightly better than average glove man. He’s close to major-league ready and could probably be a backup for Atlanta right now, with everyday upside as long as he keeps crushing mistakes.
4. Kyle Muller, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-7 | 250 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 44 in 2016
Muller made his debut in 2021, five years after Atlanta took him in the second round out of a Texas high school, and showed three major-league average pitches with enough feel and deception to project him as a mid-rotation starter. He sat 93-94 with very high spin, actually getting more RPMs on the four-seamer than either his curveball or slider. Neither breaking ball is that sharp but hitters don’t distinguish the pitches that well, with his curveball’s spin axis diametrically opposed to those of the fastball and slider. He barely used his changeup last year and may need to work it in more against right-handers, although it wasn’t a major issue for him in his 36 innings with the big club. He also moved his fastball around within the zone quite well, avoiding the heart of the plate to minimize hard contact. He’s 6-foot-7 and strong, with the weapons to start, and while there’s always been reliever concern I think he’s answered a lot of those questions now.
5. Ryan Cusick, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-6 | 235 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 24 in 2021
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Cusick had one of the best fastballs in the draft last year, running up to 99 with plus movement, getting good extension from his 6-foot-6 frame. He’d gone from a slider to a curveball at Wake Forest in the spring, but Atlanta had him go back to the slider in pro ball and it flashed plus. He was dominant in his pro debut, striking out half the batters he faced in Low A in 16 innings, and most importantly he threw strikes. He’ll have to develop his changeup more to stay a starter, and we’ll see if the control holds up over longer outings, but his ceiling is quite high, at least that of an above-average starter.
6. Freddy Tarnok, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 80 in 2017
Tarnok was a double-projection guy when Atlanta took him in the third round in 2017 — they were projecting that his velocity would increase as he filled out, and they were also projecting that they could convince him his future was on the mound, not at the plate. He works in the mid-90s now, 93-96 when I saw him make a start in late June in High A, with good extension on the pitch and a very fast arm that I think would let him throw a 55 or better slider in time. He has an above-average changeup now and a solid-average curveball, using the breaker as his main secondary weapon when I saw him; he is going to have to use that changeup more, and work north-south with it, to get more lefties out as he moves up the ladder. He’s a plus athlete who fields his position well, with a delivery that lets him throw strikes. He has a back-end starter floor and could end up an above-average starter depending on how his secondary stuff develops.
7. Drew Waters, OF
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 185 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 41 in 2017
Scouts have long questioned Waters’ feel to hit, and those concerns proved valid last year, as Waters hit .240/.329/.381 in Triple A with a 31 percent strikeout rate, as he could no longer fatten up on weaker pitching as he had at the lower levels. His tools are unchanged — he’s a borderline plus runner who can play center, shows above-average raw power in BP, and has good hand-eye coordination. He just couldn’t hit better stuff before last year, and then in 2021 he saw a lot more of that better stuff and less of the bad stuff. The main issue is the lack of any approach, which very few hitters can get away with no matter how talented they are. It’s not unfixable, but he has a long way to go to hit.
8. Tucker Davidson, LHP
Age: 26 | 6-2 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 559 in 2016
Davidson is a three-and-a-half-pitch lefty who always showed good feel and control before his stuff took a jump in 2019, but didn’t have the same fastball command in the majors. He’ll sit 92-93 without much life on the pitch, while both his slider and curveball are 55s, with the slider even more effective in the majors. He barely threw his changeup in the majors and is going to have to use and develop it more to be a starter. Davidson turns 26 in March, so it’s late for him to still be working on multiple things; I think he can be a fifth starter as is, but to be more, he’ll have to switch to a fastball option with more movement, or get a better option for right-handed batters.
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9. Jared Shuster, LHP
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 25 in 2020
After Atlanta shut Shuster down for a few weeks in May to try to change some things in his delivery, he was 90-93 with a future plus changeup and soft curveball at 78-83 that he’ll need to tighten up, and showed above-average control with average command. There were some rumors of arm trouble, especially as his velocity didn’t hold up deeper into starts and his results deteriorated later in the summer, but he’s supposed to be healthy now and ready for spring training. If he can regain some of the velocity he’d shown as an amateur, which also might help tighten the curveball, he could be a fourth starter.
10. Braden Shewmake, SS
Age: 24 | 6-4 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 21 in 2019
Shewmake had a disappointing year in Double A, where he’d finished 2019 after a strong debut in Low A that summer. He became overly aggressive at the plate, especially early, cutting his walk rate by more than half from 2019 to last year, striking out more than he ever had before, so he never quite dug out of the statistical hole he’d made in May with a 7-for-71 start to the year. He’s become an above-average defender at shortstop with a solid-average arm and good instincts, while there is still some pop in the bat and the potential at least for a 50 hit tool. It’s strange to see a guy’s approach fall apart like this; he just has to become less aggressive, or appropriately aggressive, the way he was before last year.
11. Vaughn Grissom, SS/2B
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 337 in 2019
Grissom had a hell of a year, hitting .319/.418/.464 at both levels of A-ball, including a huge 12-game run at High A to end the year. He has stellar pitch recognition and a high-contact approach, hitting the ball hard although more for line drives than power, as his wide stance doesn’t let him get to a ton of hip rotation. He played more shortstop than second base in 2021, but it’s more likely he’ll end up at the latter. Atlanta took a bunch of fliers on high school kids after the 10th round in 2017, never going over $600,000 on any one player, and several of them have turned into prospects who project as everyday players or starting pitchers already, with Grissom, their 11th rounder, the best so far.
12. Spencer Strider, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 126 in 2020
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Strider was Atlanta’s fourth-rounder in 2020 and reached the majors just 15 months later, appearing twice as a reliever for the eventual World Champions. The 6-foot right-hander works mostly with a huge fastball, typically 97-98, with a solid-average slider that could end up plus. He punched out more than a third of batters he faced as a starter in Double A, where he spent the majority of the season. He doesn’t have much of a third pitch to get lefties out, and the fastball-centric approach probably won’t allow him to turn a major-league order over three times, or maybe even twice … but it might be a grade-70 fastball when you consider velocity, spin and movement. He’ll still need a better changeup, or maybe a splitter, which I think would work with his arm slot and hand position. If he gets that, he’s a league-average starter, with a small chance for more.
13. Bryce Elder, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 156 in 2020
Elder was a big two-seam guy in college, almost a sinker/slider type but with neither a plus pitch. In pro ball, he’s added a four-seamer, changed his slider grip to get more depth on it, and started missing more bats, all the way up through Triple A in his pro debut last year. He’s built like a starter, and Atlanta let him work deeper into games than most teams let their prospects go — he had five straight starts of seven innings, and topped 90 pitches seven times over the course of the season, although he never got to the dreaded 100 pitches, which is when a pitcher’s arm falls off mid-delivery. (Don’t argue. It’s science.) He may not have the command to be more than a back-end starter, and if that’s all he is, that’s still a great outcome for a fifth-round pick.
14. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 59 in 2021
Schwellenbach was a shortstop/closer for the University of Nebraska, working up to 97 with a plus slider in relief, and his delivery looked like it would allow him to start. He blew out his elbow before throwing a professional pitch, unfortunately, and probably won’t pitch at all in 2022 unless it’s to return for instructs.
15. Joey Estes, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 487 in 2019
Estes was their 16th-round pick in the 2017 draft that landed them Grissom, Harris, Langeliers, Shewmake, and the since-traded Bryce Ball and Ricky Devito. Drafted out of a California high school, Estes has gained about 2 mph since he was drafted, topping out now at 96 with good quality on the pitch and a slew of strikes. He struck out nearly a third of the guys he faced in Low A and did that mostly with his fastball, as his slider and changeup are still works in progress, with neither an average pitch yet. He has a super-short arm action and can come from a slightly lower slot, neither of which is ideal for a starter, but neither of which is a reason not to start him — they’re just atypical. If he can improve those secondaries without changes to his delivery, which might in turn affect his control, he could be a back-end starter.
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16. Victor Vodnik, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 412 in 2018
Vodnik had a disappointing year around a six-week IL stint with elbow pain, although he came back and didn’t get much better results despite premium stuff. He averaged 96 this year with a plus changeup and a breaking ball that’s a work in progress, with a delivery that everyone has loved since he was in high school, yet he didn’t throw enough strikes and gave up too much hard contact for his stuff, right on through the AFL. Maybe the elbow was never quite right and affected his command; we’ll see if this straightens itself out after an offseason of rest. He has mid-rotation upside if it does.
17. Darius Vines, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 217 in 2019
Vines throws a ton of strikes with an arsenal of three average-ish pitches, with his changeup his best offering, and a solid delivery. His feel for pitching is behind what you’d expect for a 23-year-old, while he still looks like he could add some more velocity even though at that age we’re usually past that sort of projection. He probably should have seen Double A last year, given his age and experience as a college pitcher, and that will give us a better read on whether his strike-throwing is good enough to get hitters his age out.
18. Indigo Diaz, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-5 | 250 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 817 in 2019
Diaz had a hilarious full-season debut in 2021, carving up High A and Double A in relief with a sub-2 ERA at both levels, and strikeout rates of 53 percent and 40 percent, respectively. He’s only worked in relief but the delivery isn’t bad at all; he repeats it and gets on top of the ball well, getting good ride on the fastball. He had some trouble with strikes in Double A and the AFL, which will probably be the determining factor between him being an up-and-down reliever and someone who can handle high-leverage work.
19. Dylan Dodd, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 96 in 2021
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Dodd was their third-round pick in 2021, a fifth-year senior at Southeast Missouri State who’s 92-95 with a plus changeup but just a fringy slider, throwing everything for strikes. He made just four pro appearances after signing, one in High A where he gave up four homers in three innings. Things can only get better, I suppose.
20. AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 217 in 2021
Smith-Shawver went to the same high school as Royals prospect Bobby Witt Jr., pitching as well as playing quarterback on the school’s football team. (As opposed to, I don’t know, playing quarterback on the school’s water polo team.) He’s a strong, physical athlete, with a fastball that’s already up to 95 and feel for a changeup. His curveball is well below-average, and Atlanta will have to see if it can get him to spin something to give him a third pitch.
Others of note
Shortstop Ambioris Tavarez signed for $1.5 million in January 2021 as Atlanta had its first year of a full international signing budget since they were hit with sanctions in the fall of 2017 for violating various MLB rules in that market. He hasn’t played in games yet but should debut this year in the Florida Whatever League, and has explosive hands at the plate, projecting to hit for average and power, while he’s maybe 50/50 to stay at short … Outfielder Jesse Franklin has big power from the left side but lacks the pitch recognition to be more than a mistake hitter right now, and pitchers took increasing advantage of his willingness to chase out of the zone as the season went on … Sixth-round pick Justyn-Henry Malloy has a very good eye at the plate and some power, but he’s in search of a position, playing third base poorly after signing, possibly moving to first … Right-hander Tyler Owens dealt with elbow problems and barely pitched in 2021, throwing 14 ineffective innings in Low A, and I’m sure people who said a 5-10 right-hander wouldn’t stay healthy are saying “I told you so.” He was 94-96 when last we saw him healthy in 2019, needing work on his breaking ball and on command. He and right-hander Jared Johnson were also part of that big 2019 draft class; Johnson was healthy but posted a 7 ERA in Low A, showing big velocity but below-average command and control. He has a slider and changeup that are developing but not average yet.
2022 impact
Muller could start the year in the rotation and might be league-average if he gets a full season. Pache is their best defensive outfielder, but he’d be better served spending more time in Triple A to develop a better approach at the plate, from working the count more to recognizing offspeed stuff. Strider is a wild card — he could probably pitch in the major-league ‘pen and help, but the team may choose to develop him as a starter in Double A.
The fallen
Their 2018 draft class hasn’t yielded a big leaguer yet, with the team declining to sign first-rounder Carter Stewart over his medicals, and second-rounder Greyson Jenista, a bat-first college first baseman, hitting .216/.344/.465 in Double A at age 24 last year.
Sleeper
Tarnok’s not far away from the top 100 at this point. His changeup isn’t quite good enough yet, since he needs that to be a sure-thing starter, but he’s made so much progress in other areas that it’s reasonable to think he can improve that pitch too.
(Photo of Cristian Pache: Kelly Gavin / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
