My two most recent amateur games were a study in contrasts, with two high school pitchers, both on my Big Board, who are likely to hear their names called in the same area of the MLB Draft in July but who get their results in entirely different ways. You may prefer the pure power of Mainland (N.J.) High right-hander Chase Petty, who allowed two hits in seven innings, or the projection of East Catholic (Conn.) High left-hander Frank Mozzicato, who allowed zero hits in five innings, but both pitchers are heading for seven-figure bonuses this summer if they want them.
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If you’re just looking for present stuff, Petty will win just about any one-to-one comparison against other high school pitchers in this draft; Maddux Bruns of UMS-Wright Prep (Ala.) is probably the only pitcher who could match him. Petty has been up to 101 mph this spring, and was 94 to 99 in this outing against Don Bosco Prep in Trenton, with a breaking ball at 80-85 that served as his primary weapon, certainly unhittable at the high school level. He’s a two-pitch guy — he flashed two changeups at 89 mph that were just BP fastballs, and threw a slower curveball at 75 once as a show-me pitch — but this is unusual power for a high school arm, and he held it, finishing the sixth inning with a 97 mph fastball for a strikeout.
Mozzicato has the better breaking ball, a plus curveball at 73-77 mph that has tight rotation and good shape, and that he commands really well for someone his age. He’s been up to 94 in some starts, though the day I saw him he was at 86-90, throwing the fastball and curveball for strikes, with the curveball mostly 73-77 but dropping as low as 71 in his last inning. This was the third of four straight no-hitters for Mozzicato, and Connecticut high school bats have very little shot against him when he’s landing that breaking ball; he punched out the last seven hitters in this outing, getting them looking on the curveball, swinging on the curveball and fastball, and even throwing one slurvier breaking ball down and in to a lefty for a swinging strikeout.
When it comes to the non-velocity factors, however, Mozzicato has all the edges. He’s left-handed and has a cleaner delivery with lots of physical projection left. He cuts himself off slightly in his landing, so getting to his glove side might be a problem in the long run but right now he can spin a curveball toward a right-handed batter’s back foot to compensate. Petty, meanwhile, has a ton of effort in his delivery, regardless of pitch type. He gets a lot of his velocity from a huge stride toward the plate, which is great, but even with his arm speed it can’t catch up to his landing and he’s frequently late, leading to inconsistent command of both pitches. He falls off very hard to the first-base side after release, and his head moves so much that at one point, he lost his hat after throwing a fastball.
It’s also concerning that Petty’s fastball doesn’t dominate high school hitters at that velocity. It’s hard, and has some two-seam life, but he can’t locate it and the hitters from Don Bosco Prep — one of the better programs in New Jersey — laid off it or fouled it off more often than you’d think; I’ve seen plenty of high school pitchers dominate with less velocity. Still, Petty destroyed them with his curveball, getting three-quarters of his strikeouts on the night with that pitch, not his fastball, which is a concern when the latter has grade 80 velocity. He faced a far better opponent than Mozzicato did, so it’s not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison, but I don’t think it’s unfair to say a high school pitcher who can hit 99 mph should miss more bats with the pitch.
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Both of these teenagers will probably go in the top 50 picks, depending on signability. Petty is committed to Florida, but pitchers with his kind of arm strength should always sign out of high school — he’s more comparable to Karsten Whitson than A.J. Puk at the same age. Mozzicato is committed to Connecticut, which doesn’t have Florida’s history of churning out prospects, but he has a better argument that he’ll improve in the next three years, even if only from physical maturation, than Petty does. I could see Petty sneaking into the back of the first round, and he seems very likely to be some team’s second pick on an over-slot deal if not, whereas Mozzicato could go in the 30-50 range.
(Photo of Chase Petty: Courtesy of Michael Cassella)
