NASHVILLE, Tenn. — I flew to Nashville, my first flight in 14 months, to see Vanderbilt starters Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, two of the top prospects in this year’s draft class. I left the next night with the job half done, as an extraordinarily late scratch meant only Rocker pitched in the series against Alabama, leaving scouts and executives with some unanswered questions about Leiter.
Advertisement
Rocker started Friday night, and through two innings, he pitched like he wanted to grab the No. 1 pick by the throat. Rocker punched out the first seven batters he saw, with a passed ball third strike mixed in, sitting at 92-94 mph and getting strikeouts with that and the curveball at 78-83. (I’ve seen it called a slider, and maybe Rocker calls it that, but it has curveball shape, and he throws another breaking ball at 85-87 that is more clearly a slider.) The latter pitch was plus, maybe a 70, and he was getting swings-and-misses as well as called strikes. And he was in attack mode from the start.
Then the first hitter in the third inning hit a ground-rule double on the first pitch, and it was like someone let all the air out of the balloon. All the conviction Rocker showed in the first two innings was gone. His velocity was still there, but his ability to locate the two pitches he’d had working vanished, and Alabama hitters were on him. Rocker fought through three more innings, giving up six runs on six hits and five walks in that span, including three walks in the fifth after Vanderbilt came back to hand him a two-run lead.
Rocker showed four pitches in the outing but never had feel for his changeup, bouncing a couple early in the game and preferring to go to his curveball in potential changeup counts. When he got his fastball at the top of the zone, he still missed bats with it even after the wheels started to come off. He’s a quick worker, and his delivery really makes use of his legs, with a huge stride toward the plate and a fast arm that, along with his 6-foot-5, 245-pound frame, should make him not just a good starter but also a very durable one. If you watched two innings of this start, you’d ask why anyone else was in the running for the first pick this July. If you watched the last three innings, though, you’d probably have no idea where to put him on your draft board.
Kumar struck out 13 tonight.
Watch them all. 👇#VandyBoys | @KumarRocker pic.twitter.com/2NCYXRWehy
— Vanderbilt Baseball (@VandyBoys) May 8, 2021
• The decision to skip Leiter’s turn in the rotation wasn’t announced to scouts until Saturday morning, a few hours before the 2 p.m. game. The email to scouts said it was “nothing serious at this point but we are monitoring his inning workload,” which doesn’t line up with the choice to skip his turn hours before the game. If you’re going to limit someone’s workload, you make that call days before the start, not hours. Leiter has been struggling in his last few starts, giving up three homers and four walks in four innings last week against Florida and giving up a pair of homers in five innings against Mississippi State the week before. He allowed four runs in each outing. Maybe he’s tired and needs a week off, but the timing of this decision is unusual, and now even more eyes will be on Leiter if and when he retakes the mound.
Advertisement
• Also not appearing in the two games against Alabama: Outfielder Isaiah Thomas, a potential Day 1 pick. I’ve seen no explanation.
• Alabama right-hander Dylan Smith, who started Saturday afternoon, has come out of nowhere to emerge as a likely Day 1 draft pick. He has an intriguing combination of projection unusual in a college arm and enough present stuff to justify the high pick. Saturday wasn’t his best outing, though. His stuff was down slightly, pitching at 88-94 mph, and he struggled with his command and control. He needed 28 pitches to get out of the first and never really got into a rhythm against a tough Vanderbilt lineup. Smith showed a curveball and changeup, with what looked like an in-between slider once or twice, overusing the curveball and underusing the changeup. Like Rocker, Smith has a long stride to the plate, and he gets great arm acceleration, so as he fills out — he looks like he has some room to do so — he should throw harder. His delivery seems to work fine, and he’s on line to the plate, so working to both sides of the zone shouldn’t be a problem for him. Maybe he’s fatigued, too, like Rocker was a few weeks ago and maybe Leiter is now, as college pitchers across the country hit the wall from the longer-than-2020 season. He seems like an ideal second pick for a team hoping to grab upside without having to wade into high school pitching too early in the draft.
• Alabama second baseman Peyton Wilson has come on as a potential second-round pick thanks to some very good bat speed and above-average power for his position, although he struggled with contact in both games and looks like a 45 defender. Wilson should catch up to decent velocity, but against Rocker and Vanderbilt freshman Patrick Reilly (who subbed for Leiter on Saturday), Wilson chased a lot of fastballs he couldn’t square up. In games and in pregame warmups, he didn’t seem to throw very well. I know he’s going to go somewhere on Day 1, but there are some other college infielders — Tyler Black, Connor Norby — who show better performance and more present fielding ability and should go before Wilson does.
• Alabama’s Friday starter Tyler Ras should go somewhere on Day 2, probably in the fifth to eighth rounds, with three fringe-average pitches in a 90-93 mph fastball, changeup and soft slider. He does have really good extension over his front side and his stuff could play up a little bit with some work. Vandy tagged him for four homers, though, and even with the wind blowing out mid-game, that’s a lot of hard contact.
• Some other Vanderbilt players whose names you’ll hear in the draft this year: Catcher CJ Rodriguez, a draft-eligible sophomore, has attracted some attention from model-based teams because he rarely strikes out and plays a skill position. He did not have a good showing catching Rocker’s stuff Friday, but was better behind the plate Saturday. I’d like to have seen more hard contact to go along with the low strikeout rate, though. … First baseman Dominic Keegan has power and makes hard contact, but there’s a lot of swing-and-miss here. He caught a little his freshman year, and I wonder whether a team would take him and try to put him back there again, which would make him a far more interesting prospect. … Right-hander Luke Murphy pitched in relief Friday because there’s a rule that says Vanderbilt has to have at least three guys throwing low- to mid-90s in their bullpen every year. Murphy was 92-93 with an average changeup, with a delivery that is needlessly cross-body — he starts all the way on the first base side of the rubber, then cuts off his landing on the opposite side of the mound — and could be something if he’s just more on line to the plate, although I didn’t see a breaking ball.
Advertisement
• It was the underclassmen who shone for Vanderbilt, though, none more than freshman outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr., who went 4-for-4, including his first collegiate home run, with a walk and three steals Friday. He followed that up with another hit and steal Saturday. Bradfield’s an 80 runner whose speed changes the inning whenever he’s on base, reminding me of the way Trea Turner — who was similarly slight of build at the same age, but has gotten much stronger in pro ball — could alter games with his speed at N.C. State. He’s one to watch for 2023, as is the right-hander Reilly, who took over for Leiter on Saturday and punched out nine Alabama hitters in seven innings with just two walks. Reilly was 90-94, but hitters from both sides of the plate missed his fastball up in the zone all day long. He had a power slider and hard changeup but worked very heavily off the fastball all three times through the order. He’s built like a starter, and if the pandemic hadn’t ended his senior year in high school before he ever saw the mound, maybe someone would have bought him out of Vanderbilt.
• Sophomore shortstop Carter Young hit three homers in the two games, the last one an absolute rocket out to right field, as well as one out to left the night before, both of which came while he was batting left-handed. He strikes out a lot, with 58 already this year in 208 plate appearances, and didn’t look great on breaking stuff when he wasn’t busy hitting stuff out of the ballpark. As a true shortstop with power and legit bat speed, though, he’s probably a first-rounder next year; how high he goes will probably come down to how much he hits this summer and next spring.
• On the high school front, New Jersey prep lefty Anthony Solometo pitched May 1 in front of a good crowd of national scouts, including several executives from teams with picks in the top 10 — and who thus will pick again high in the second round. Solometo was electric. He worked at 92-95 with good life on the pitch, throwing strikes with the fastball and his 79-83 mph breaking ball, barely even using his changeup because why do the hitters that sort of favor. He’s athletic and loose and repeats his delivery well despite the length of his arm swing. He’s in the mix to be the second high school pitcher taken, after Oklahoma’s Jackson Jobe, although he could be some team’s second-pick over-slot guy, too.
• Lorenzo Carrier is the best prospect to come out of the state of Delaware since Jamie Jarmon went to the Rangers in the second round in 2012, although Carrier’s commitment to Miami (Fla.) could mean he ends up at school rather than signing. Carrier has elite bat speed and an athletic body, although he’s not a plus runner and will have to work on his reads to profile as a center fielder long-term. It sounds like a few teams are in on him pretty heavy at this point, but some teams are out because of the low caliber of competition he’s faced this spring and the fact he didn’t play last summer or fall, so he hasn’t been seen with wood bats.
(Photo of Kumar Rocker from the 2019 College World Series: Steven Branscombe / USA Today)
