Cubs get a strong return for a declining Anthony Rizzo: Keith Law

TAMPA, FL - AUG 10: Alexander Vizcaino (17) of the Tarpons delivers a pitch to the plate during the Florida State League game between the Charlotte Stone Crabs and the Tampa Tarpons on August 10, 2019, at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire) (Icon Sportswire via AP Images)
By Keith Law
Jul 30, 2021

The Yankees added their second left-handed bat in two days, first getting Joey Gallo from the Rangers and now acquiring Anthony Rizzo from the Cubs. While the Gallo move makes them substantially better for this year (and addresses a need for next year), the Rizzo acquisition will probably have a smaller impact, as he’s not quite the player he used to be. The Cubs did well, however, adding two high-upside prospects who are further away from the majors, which is a fair return for two months of Rizzo.

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Rizzo has been an icon in Chicago, becoming a star there after two trades that sent him from Boston to the Padres (for Adrián González) to the Cubs (for Andrew Cashner). With the Cubs, he reworked his swing to become a consistent hitter against left- and right-handed pitching with both patience and power right up through 2019. Since the start of 2020, however, he’s hit .238/.344/.433, as he’s lost bat speed and struggled against better velocity. He’s a left-handed hitter who could benefit from the short porch in Yankee Stadium, but it’s unlikely that he’s going to get that bat speed back. While he does give the Yankees another left-handed bat and a plus defender at first to help fill a void the Yankees have had there all year, his impact at the plate is likely to be limited.

The Cubs get a pair of faraway prospects with upside back, which is about the best they should have expected for a declining hitter at a position few teams needed and who is headed for free agency. Right-hander Alexander Vizcaíno has two plus pitches in a fastball up to 99 and a grade-70 changeup, working as a starter through 2019 and reaching High A. He was out until the start of July this year with a sore arm, and his return hasn’t gone well so far, with just six innings thrown across six appearances and 10 walks allowed in that span. He has a breaking ball, but it’s slurvy and clearly below average, and for him to be a starter he’ll have to tighten that up — and throw strikes again. The Yankees didn’t release details on his injury, but his control trouble this year makes me wonder if he’s completely recovered from whatever his arm ailment was.

Outfielder Kevin Alcantara debuted in the Gulf Coast League at age 16 back in 2019, and he wasn’t too bad given his age — he hit .260/.289/.358 but struck out only about 20 percent of the time, which is impressive for one of the league’s youngest players. He just returned to the field at the end of June in the same league, playing eight games so far and going 9-for-25 with four walks and seven strikeouts. The stat line doesn’t mean much in such a tiny sample, but it is good to see he’s not getting overmatched. He’s already filled out quite a bit since 2019, although there’s still a lot of room left on his 6-foot-6 frame, and his swing, always short and repeatable, is more under control. He’s a plus runner and projects to stay in center field and end up a 55 defender there, if not better. There’s plenty of variance in his outcomes, given his age and lack of pro experience — he’s up to 203 career PA now — but he has the upside of a 20-homer, high-average regular in center who plays above-average defense.

It’s probably the last thing Cubs fans want to hear, but at this point, they should really just trade Kris Bryant and Javier Báez for the best offers they receive. There’s nothing stopping them from re-signing any or all three of those guys in the winter — these are the Chicago Cubs, not the Cleveland Spiders; they have the revenue whether or not their owners acknowledge it — and dealing them could add more talent to a farm system that is improving but still below the major-league median after years of trades and lower draft positions. At least this time around, the Cubs’ owners were willing to pay the rest of Rizzo’s salary to get a better return. Doing so two more times, with Bryant and Báez, would help accelerate this rebuild.

(Photo of Alexander Vizcaíno: Cliff Welch / Icon Sportswire via AP Images)

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Keith Law

Keith Law is a senior baseball writer for The Athletic. He has covered the sport since 2006 and prior to that was a special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's the author of "Smart Baseball" (2017) and "The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves" (2020), both from William Morrow. Follow Keith on Twitter @keithlaw