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This is my penultimate mock draft for 2022 — that means it’s my next to last one, folks. With just six days left until Draft Day, there’s at least some more smoke out there around some teams’ interest in specific players or certain groups of players, although there are also some teams that just aren’t saying or leaking anything at all. (I’ve never been much for the cloak and dagger stuff, even when I was with a team, but it’s a philosophical choice.)
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A mock is only as valuable as the accuracy of the top few picks, and when Baltimore has one of those picks, well, we’re all at its mercy. (I know they’re reading this, too.) Think of this as a scenario of how things might unfold, given what I know about the teams drafting behind them, if they take this particular player with the first pick.
I base my mocks on the best information I can get from industry sources who might actually know something about which teams are interested in which players, as well as my own understanding of teams’ individual draft philosophies — such as how much each team leans on its own analytical model, assuming they use one. I do not consider my own opinions on players’ values or projections, because that’s not how teams draft. I may not have a player ranked as a first-rounder, but that has no bearing on where he will actually be drafted.
I’ll do one more of these on Saturday morning, before I fly to L.A. for the Futures Game that evening, and will update the mock on Sunday in the not all that likely event that I hear something new that changes it.
1. Baltimore Orioles: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
I wrote this in the last mock too, but I’ll say it again: No one is going to know what Baltimore is doing until a few minutes before the pick. We have over 10 years of history with Mike Elias drafting high, including four previous times he’s had the first pick between Houston and Baltimore, and every time, they kept it under their hats, and then put their hats in a locked safe, and then sent the safe to the apocalypse seed depository on Svalbard. My educated guess, based primarily on Elias & Co.’s history, is that the five or six names in their mix (a number Elias himself offered up about a month ago) include Lee, Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, Jackson Holliday, and maybe Cam Collier or Jacob Berry. Elijah Green would surprise me. Elias said they’re probably not taking a pitcher, which for him is an extreme level of candor.
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Scouting report: Lee has been the best pure hitter among college prospects this year, running a walk-to-strikeout rate over 2.00 all season and punching out well under 10 percent of the time. He controls the zone well and rarely misses fastballs within it, thanks to exceptional hand-eye coordination. His swing is unorthodox and kind of noisy, with some evident effort, but with all that hip and torso rotation he doesn’t always make the high-quality contact teams are looking for in elite prospects. I don’t think Lee is a shortstop long term; he has outstanding hands that will play anywhere on the field, but his ankles are thick and he’s a 40 runner, so the lateral agility that position demands may just be beyond his physical ability. Put him at third base and he should be fine. It’s a bet on the bat, and that a pro department can take this foundation of contact skills and help him get to more consistent contact quality; it’s easier to teach someone to hit the ball harder than it is to teach him to hit the ball in the first place. Lee should be a strong regular who makes some All-Star teams as a third or second baseman, but probably doesn’t project to be a superstar.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan School (Norcross, Ga.)
I think Arizona wants Jones, and if he’s not there, they’ll take Holliday rather than Green. I’d bet heavily on this being a high school pick, either way.
Scouting report: Jones is the son of Andruw Jones, and his game bears many resemblances to his father’s, not least in the outfield, where Druw is already a plus defender and could work his way up to an elite level with experience. At the plate, he shows 70 power thanks to the strength in his wrists and forearms, with more power possible as he fills out further. And he has shown some bat control against amateur competition, with some understanding of when to pull the ball and when to try to go the other way. He’s a plus runner right now but may lose some of that down the road as he gets bigger, as his father did by age 24-25. The real question on Druw is whether he’ll hit — if he does, he’s a superstar, with 30/30 potential and a glove that should save 10 or more runs a year in center. If he’s more of a 45 bat, he still has plenty of major-league value due to the secondary skills, so he could be worth several WAR per year even with a .300ish on-base percentage. He’d have to be a worse hitter than even that to be something less than a regular, and the unlikeliness of that outcome combined with his very high ceiling make him the top prospect in this year’s draft class.
3. Texas Rangers: Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) High
Jones is gone by this pick, so I think this is Holliday or Green — Elijah’s father posted video of him smoking a ball at some sort of workout at the Rangers stadium the other day — or Kevin Parada, which would make sense if the Rangers are willing to give up a little upside for the proximity of an advanced college bat who’ll get to the majors while Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are still at their relative peaks.
Scouting report: I’m not sure anyone has helped himself more than Holliday has this spring, notably during his team’s spring break trip to Arizona in March, where Holliday showed incredibly well in front of a lot of decision-makers in town for spring training. He has one of the best swings in the draft, even with a slight bat wrap, with strong plate coverage and above-average power, more likely to be a high-doubles guy with 15-20 homers than a 30-homer guy even at his peak. He’s been hard to strike out as an amateur, only showing occasional weakness against fastballs up, and so far his pitch recognition has been strong for his age and experience level. He’s improved his defensive skills at shortstop, although there’s also been talk of him moving to centerfield to take advantage of his speed if he can’t stay at short, rather than moving him to second or third. It also hasn’t hurt that his father, Matt, was a longtime big-leaguer and seven-time All-Star, and that scouts have been just as impressed by Jackson’s younger brother, Ethan, who may become a top-5 pick in the 2025 draft. Jackson’s heading for the same range this year.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Termarr Johnson, SS, Mays High (Atlanta)
Johnson and Collier have been the two most frequent names here, although that assumes Jones and Holliday are both gone already, and I believe they’d strongly consider Lee, as well. Barring a deal at No. 1, this feels like Collier’s ceiling.
Scouting report: Johnson has the best pure hit tool in the draft class, with scouts saying it’s the best hit tool they’ve seen on a high school kid in a decade or more. Despite a small hitch in his swing, he does hit all pitch types and controls the zone, with outstanding hand-eye coordination and great bat speed, making good quality contact but with only average power. He’s a shortstop now but will move to second base in pro ball, with good hands but not the footwork to handle short. I think the present hit tool is a 60, at best, rather than a 70, although perhaps it will get there in time, but he’s swung and missed enough against good competition that the higher grade doesn’t apply just yet. He has exceptional makeup in every evaluation, from his feel for the game to the way he acts as an additional coach on the field to the interviews he’s had with scouts and team executives, so there’s greater confidence that he’ll reach his ceiling than there is for just about any high school player. That ceiling is tied to just how good his hit tool can become.
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5. Washington Nationals: Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
This has been the rumor all spring, and the Nats generally aren’t shy about who they like in a draft. I’ve heard they’re lighter on Lee and Berry, so if Parada’s gone, they could go high school — it would mean that one of the major high school bats gets here. I do not think they’d take Johnson, though.
Scouting report: Parada has been one of the best hitters in college baseball this year, tying for sixth in Division 1 with 26 home runs while walking nearly as often as he struck out on the season (32:30 K:BB), and does so despite one of the more bizarre setups you’ll see in a hitter and while handling the most difficult position on the diamond. Parada sets up at the plate with the bat slung over his shoulder like a bag of golf clubs, but gets the bat to the zone on time, even against better velocity. His plate discipline and pitch recognition are both advanced for an amateur and he’s shown some ability to make adjustments in-season already. Behind the plate, he’s adequate as a receiver with fringy arm strength, good enough to stay there because he hits so well. With 20-25 homer power and a potential 60 hit tool at a position of permanent scarcity, he offers some of the best pure value in the draft class.
6. Miami Marlins: Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU
Before the season, the talk was that the Marlins wanted Johnson, Green or Lesko. Now it sounds like they’ve soured just enough on Green that they would pass on him, and Lesko got hurt — although I don’t think that precludes an underslot deal here — so if Johnson is gone, they’d be looking at Berry or Cross, or a deal with a prep arm like Brandon Barriera. They’re out on Collier.
Scouting report: Berry has one of the best pure hit tools in the draft class, with an exceptional combination of contact and power — at the end of the regular season, he had the fewest strikeouts of any hitter with at least 15 homers. He transferred from the University of Arizona to LSU for his junior year, and in the process cut his strikeout rate substantially, with less power on contact (perhaps also a result of moving from 2,400 feet above sea level to 56 feet above it). He has a very simple approach from both sides of the plate, with no stride and just average bat speed, but despite that he’s had no trouble getting to good velocity. Berry has no position — the Tigers have tried him at third and both outfield corners, and he’s been bad everywhere, reminiscent of current Diamondbacks DH Seth Beer when he was at Clemson. That lack of a position limits how valuable he can be, and if he doesn’t hit, there’s no floor. But someone will take him for the potential OBP/power combination he offers, perhaps with the hope he can handle first base.
7. Chicago Cubs: Zach Neto, SS, Campbell
Everyone has assumed all spring that the Cubs will go with a college bat here, but I could see them taking one of the premium high school bats who “falls” here, whether that’s Johnson or Green. I’ve had them taking Collier in previous mocks but that seems less likely now.
Scouting report: Neto is a definite shortstop who should be a plus defender in the majors and has a plus arm, but he’s really made himself some money this spring with his performance, including just a mere 7.6 percent strikeout rate for the Camels. He’s got the extraneous movement that you need to have to be a top hitting prospect in this year’s draft, although he calms it down with two strikes; despite that, he’s short to the ball and makes high-quality contact, even hitting for some home-run power that may not persist into pro ball with wood bats and better pitching. He’s spent a little time on the mound, but his future is on the dirt, and with his propensity for putting the bat on the ball and enough power to project as a 30-doubles guy, he should go in the top half of the first round.
8. Minnesota Twins: Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola
Collier is a 17-year-old JUCO player, which is going to boost him substantially for teams with analytical models that weigh age relative to level of competition, and Minnesota is one of those teams. I’ve heard the Twins with interest in a broad mix of college and high school (and JUCO) hitters all spring, including Neto, Berry, Gavin Cross and Parada. I haven’t heard them specifically with Green, but I think there was such a strong belief Green was going top four that any team below that was presumed to have no chance to draft him.
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Scouting report: Collier is one of the youngest players in this draft class, as he won’t turn 18 until November, but he pulled a Bryce Harper by leaving high school after his sophomore year to attend Chipola College, one of the best junior college baseball programs in the country. It is paying off, as he’s hitting for average and getting on base this spring with solid power production despite being the youngest player on the Chipola roster and younger than every pitcher he’s faced. Collier, whose father Lou played in the majors for several years as an extra outfielder, is 6-foot-2 and may still grow a little with a ton of room to fill out. He’s a third baseman now and good enough to stay there with a 70 arm and the agility to handle the position as the game speeds up. At the plate, he’s more than held his own against much better pitching than what he saw in high school; he’s had some expected issues with breaking stuff but also shown he can adjust to some of those pitches and stay back to take them the other way. He needs to add some more strength to better control the barrel as well as make harder contact, as his hands work well enough at the plate for him to be a plus hitter with average power. He’s committed to Louisville but should be a top-five pick in the draft.
9. Kansas City Royals: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy
I think this is a dream scenario for the Royals. I’ve heard them with Cross and Neto, as well as Brock Porter and Barriera, although I can’t imagine them doubling down on high school arms after building their whole draft around three of them (Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna and Shane Panzini) last year.
Scouting report: Green looks the part of a future star in size, frame, and especially tools, with a strong, athletic 6-3 build, explosive speed, and plus power already that projects to 70 in the future. It’s easy, easy power, with fantastic hand acceleration after a quiet start, and when he gets his arms extended the ball jumps off his bat. All his power comes on pitches on the middle or outer thirds, although he can still make contact on the inner third, just without the same sort of impact. The concern on Green has always been his tendency to swing and miss, especially on stuff in the zone; he doesn’t chase fastballs, but will miss fastball strikes, especially up, and can expand for breaking stuff down and away. He has the most pure upside of the high school position players in the class, with 30/30 potential in a true centerfielder who throws well enough to play right, with a bit more risk than some of the other hitters in the top echelon.
10. Colorado Rockies: Brock Porter, RHP, St. Mary’s Prep (Orchard Lake, Mich.)
I’d heard Berry doesn’t get past the Rockies, which … I’ll save most of my analysis for after the draft, but I’ll just offer up the suggestion that taking a player with no defensive value might not be the best strategy for a team that plays half its games in a park where every ball in play is a lit firecracker? They’ve been linked to Porter all spring, as well.
Scouting report: Porter has emerged as one of the top high school right-handers in this class, and right now is the best bet to be the first arm taken from anywhere in the class. He’s been up to 97 this spring with good arm-side run on the pitch, while both his curveball and changeup project as at least above-average offerings when he starts using them more. He offers a ton of projection on his 6-4 frame, with a long stride toward the plate and good extension over his front side. He’s also committed to Clemson, but he’s pitched well enough this spring that he should go high enough to sign.
11. New York Mets: Jace Jung, 2B/3B, Texas Tech
This is the pick the Mets get for not signing Kumar Rocker last year, and between this and their regular pick at No. 14, they can do just about anything they want in the first round. They could go way over slot here if some big name slides to them, and then cut a deal at No. 14 to balance out their pool, for example. That means the Mets are supposedly on everybody, and anything is on the table. They could boost a college arm at No. 14 to pay for someone at No. 11, for example. Here, I’ve got Jung, presumed to be a top-10 pick most of the spring, going to them as a straight value pick, where they take a player who never should have gotten this far.
Scouting report: Jung has one of the weirdest setups you will ever see in a hitter above Little League, holding the bat so far behind his back shoulder that you’d think it was covered in a toxic fungus. Or perhaps cooties. Yet he hits — he hit well enough as a sophomore in 2021, with a .337/.462/.697 line and more walks than strikeouts, that he probably would have gone in the top half of the first round last year had he been eligible. The younger brother of Rangers prospect Josh Jung, Jace gets the bat head into the zone in plenty of time to make consistent, high-quality contact, including power, with 21 homers as a sophomore and 14 this season. His position is still the main question; he’s mostly played second base in college, not that well, but doesn’t have the arm for the left side of the infield or the speed to play anywhere else but left field or first base. There’s enough reason to buy his bat that he’s going to go in the top-10 picks even with such a huge unknown in his profile.
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12. Detroit Tigers: Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
Heard the Tigers with Cross, Barriera, Chase Delauter, Porter, Cole Young and Daniel Susac. I haven’t heard anyone with Carson Whisenhunt yet, but he’d fit for them in multiple ways. I don’t think they take an injured pitcher, and I would be surprised if they were in the Jett Williams market.
Scouting report: Cross is an advanced hitter with above-average power and the potential for more with some swing adjustments, rising thanks to a thin crop of advanced college hitters in this year’s class. He’s improved his approach significantly this year, walking more than he’s struck out in conference play through May 19th, and improving his ball-strike recognition over 2021. He’s an above-average runner who can steal a bag but isn’t fleet enough to stay in center in pro ball. He strides too far at the plate, without transferring his weight as he does so, which cuts off some of his power potential and can leave him unable to drive anything on the outer half. He hasn’t faced much left-handed pitching this year, with a mild platoon split in the sample he’s had, which is just something to watch when he moves into pro ball rather than an immediate concern. He should be a solid regular in an outfield corner, thanks to his hitting and on-base skills, but I’d like to see some swing changes that might unlock more power.
13. Los Angeles Angels: Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage High (Plantation, Fla.)
I’ve heard the Angels are taking a pitcher here and it’s most likely Barriera or Gabriel Hughes. I have not heard if they plan to take a position player anywhere in the draft this year.
Scouting report: Barriera ended his season early, choosing to make his final start before his team’s schedule was over, which may become more common going forward (Hunter Greene did this as well) as pitchers try to avoid getting hurt right before the draft. He’s been up to 98 with a very fast arm and shows two very sharp breaking balls, both of which can touch plus, along with a plus changeup. He doesn’t offer much projection, but he also doesn’t need it given his present stuff, and his build right now seems sufficient for him to stay a starter. I don’t think he gets great extension over his front side, but it’s a minor quibble. It’s premium stuff, and he’s aggressive on the mound. If he gets to consistent strikes, he’s an above-average starter.
14. New York Mets: Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
So I’m playing it straight with the Mets’ two picks right now — two guys who are good values for the picks, neither of whom would be a big overpay (or an underpay to balance out the other guy). I’ve heard Jett Williams a ton with this pick as well, and Justin Crawford, but I don’t think that’s as serious.
Scouting report: Susac has actually had a slightly worse sophomore year than freshman year, but the weak draft and the value of his position has moved him up into the top half of the first round. Susac, whose older brother Andrew was a second-round pick in 2014 and has played 114 games in the majors, is a solid-average receiver at worst with a plus arm, giving no doubt that he’ll stay at the position. At the plate, he starts out with an interpretive dance sequence that involves a huge step forward and then erases it with the same move backwards, but of more concern is that his swing is long, and he’s been far more dangerous against fastballs than anything else because adjusting once he’s committed to the swing is difficult. He has produced well enough in a Power 5 conference for two years to be a first-rounder, with a similar projection to Joey Bart’s out of college — low-OBP with power and solid defense.
15. San Diego Padres: Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford (Ga.) High
Everyone expects the Padres to do something bold, whether it’s taking Lesko, who was going to go in the top 10, maybe top five, before Tommy John surgery; or taking Kumar Rocker with the idea of rushing him to the majors this year; or something else unexpected. I would counter that by pointing out that their last two first-round picks were just very good high school hitters who have both excelled in pro ball — Robert Hassell III (2020) and Jackson Merrill (2021). That said, Lesko would never have come close to this pick if he’d been healthy, and A.J. Preller has taken a guy coming off Tommy John in the first round before, selecting Cal Quantrill eighth-overall in 2016, the same year when he took another TJ guy, Mason Thompson, in the third and paid him over slot.
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Scouting report: Lesko is one of the best high school pitching prospects in the last 20 years, and has one of the best changeups anyone can remember seeing a high school kid throw. He’s 90-96 mph as a starter already, but that’s just the appetizer to the main course of his changeup, which looks just like his fastball out of his hand and finishes with hard tailing action to his arm side. He started throwing an improved curveball this past spring with hard downward break and a very high spin rate, which answered one of the major questions facing him coming into the spring. He takes an enormous stride toward the plate to generate that velocity and seems to repeat the delivery well, with no obvious red flags in his mechanics. Lesko stopped pitching after the mid-April NHSI tournament due to a sore forearm, and underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of that month. The best historical comparison for him might be Lucas Giolito (16th overall in 2012), who suffered an elbow injury during his senior year but didn’t have surgery before the draft, blowing out after one pro inning that summer. Giolito was in the running to go first overall and was a definite top-five selection before the injury, which seems like a good comparable for Lesko, who now seems primed to go somewhere in the middle of the first round.
16. Cleveland Guardians: Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall-Heath (Texas) High
Cleveland isn’t afraid to take fun-sized players out of high school, and Williams grades out well in team models, which is also huge for Cleveland. I’ve heard the Guardians a bit with Delauter and some with Justin Crawford. I don’t think they’re on Cole Young.
Scouting report: Williams is the other 5-8 high school shortstop in this draft class, behind Termarr Johnson because of the latter’s elite hit tool … but how far behind, really? He’s a right-handed hitter with a clean, efficient swing, and his hand-eye coordination rivals Johnson’s; Williams almost never swung and missed last summer on the showcase circuit and didn’t show any trouble with velocity when he faced it. He’s an above-average to plus runner, quick enough for shortstop but lacking the arm strength or footwork for the position in the long term, so it’s more likely he’ll move to second base or possibly centerfield. There’s always some trepidation around undersized high school hitters, but I remember a similarly sized right-handed high school shortstop who rarely struck out and hit everything hard — Alex Bregman.
17. Philadelphia Phillies: Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina
I’ve heard that the Phillies are disinclined to take a high school pitcher in the first round for the third year in a row, and I would imagine given the state of the major-league club that team president Dave Dombrowski would prefer to get someone here who’ll either see the majors faster or produce trade value as soon as this winter. That would point to college guys like Whisenhunt, who only pitched on the Cape this year and could go right to the minors after the draft; Rocker, who also has barely pitched this season and could conceivably see the majors in relief this year; or an advanced bat like Drew Gilbert, Delauter, etc. This isn’t a guarantee they go college, just that it’s more likely.
Scouting report: Whisenhunt didn’t pitch for East Carolina this spring after testing positive for a banned substance in the offseason, so he didn’t make his 2022 debut until June 12 when he pitched for the Chatham Anglers of the Cape Cod League. He looked good despite some rust, sitting 92-93 mph and touching 95 mph with an improved curveball and a changeup that flashed plus. It’s a paradox of sorts but he might be better off having missed the spring. While many other first-round contenders among college pitchers have had Tommy John surgery, Whisenhunt is healthy and relatively fresh, making him likely to pitch for most of the remaining minor-league season after the draft. He was ruled ineligible for the NCAA season after testing positive for a banned substance. That left his team without its best pitcher this year, as East Carolina ultimately fell in the super regionals to Texas — perhaps it would be in Omaha if Whisenhunt had been around. However, he is the best healthy college left-hander in the draft right now, with mid-rotation upside.
18. Cincinnati Reds: Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny High (Wexford, Pa.)
I think this is also something of a dream scenario for the Reds, as Young probably should go before this, but so far I haven’t heard him much with teams before No. 18 other than Detroit (well, and the Mets, but they’re on everybody, right?). Young turning 19 later this month dings him a little bit in draft models, which might make him available at this pick. I think this is about Barriera’s floor, if he even got this far.
Scouting report: Young has surged up draft boards with a strong showing this spring in the Pittsburgh suburbs. Last summer he would often overstride, and since he nearly bars his lead arm, he was left off-balance enough that he couldn’t adjust to stuff spinning away from him, although he’s quieted all of that down somewhat this spring and scouts have reported seeing better quality contact from him. He’s at least a 55 runner who has the speed and arm to stay at shortstop, although he’ll need some adjustment with his footwork to remain there in the majors. The Duke commit will turn 19 a few weeks after the draft, which will hurt him with certain teams that weigh age more heavily, while teams that focus more on tools and athleticism are likely to push him into the first 15 picks.
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19. Oakland A’s: Chase Delauter, OF, James Madison
I’ve heard Oakland mostly with college bats, like Delauter, Dylan Beavers and Gilbert, although the A’s went high school in the first round in the last two years with Tyler Soderstrom and The Other Max Muncy.
Scouting report: Delauter had about as bad a spring as any of the players who came into 2022 as first-round candidates — he was dominated by the two left-handers in the Florida State rotation in a series that was very heavily attended by scouts, and just a few weeks later broke his foot, ending his season after 24 games. His gaudy stat line this spring was boosted by a comical 13-for-22 performance with five homers and 10 walks in midweek games against inferior opponents. Delauter opens his front side way too early as he tries to cheat to get to velocity, and thus becomes vulnerable to offspeed stuff moving away. Florida State’s lefties just attacked him with fastballs and he struck out six times in those two games, giving teams the book on how to approach him. There could be more here with a lot of swing and mechanical work, but scouts are concerned he just can’t get to velocity consistently without that early move. He’s played mostly center for the Dukes but will end up a corner in pro ball.
20. Atlanta: Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman High (Las Vegas)
I think Crawford’s market is somewhere between the Mets’ second pick and here. The Padres could be on him, the Guardians and Atlanta also seem most likely. Atlanta hasn’t taken a high school player in the first round since 2018 (Carter Stewart, who didn’t sign), though.
Scouting report: The son of Carl Crawford — yes, Carl Crawford is old enough to have a son in the draft, and nothing in this draft year has made me feel any older than that one fact — is quite similar to his dad as a player. He’s at least a 70 runner, with good bat speed, but not much present power or even hard contact yet, although his frame is very projectable and he could get to average power. He sets up with an extremely wide stance, and strides about as far as he can, which may be why he has trouble adjusting to changing speeds. He’s a better defender than Carl was and throws well enough to stay in centerfield. He has above-average regular upside, but may require more time in the minors than the typical first-round high school position player.
21. Seattle Mariners: Dylan Beavers, OF, Cal
Hearing more college bats here than anything else — Beavers, Delauter, the Tennessee guys, etc. Sounds like they are not on Crawford. I haven’t heard them with any college arms but they are in the range for the best of that limited group of healthy pitchers to start coming off the board.
Scouting report: Beavers is a strong, 6-4 outfielder with big power but an unusual swing path that has led to questions about his future hit tool. He hit .291/.427/.634 for the Golden Bears this spring with 17 homers, after he swatted 18 for them last spring. He makes a sharp move down and slightly back when he begins his swing, and whether you want to call it a hitch or not, it’s not helping him with timing, leading to trouble with breaking stuff and a lot of groundballs because his hands are moving upwards and he gets on top of the ball. He does have good bat speed and is athletic enough that he might end up a plus defender in right, although the odds are against him staying in center. If he can work around this swing issue, or some team can smooth it out, he has above-average regular upside thanks to his speed and pitch recognition.
22. St. Louis Cardinals: Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee
The Cardinals have gone conservative in the first round (Michael McGreevy, last year) and swung for the metaphorical fences (Jordan Walker, 2020) and done well both ways. Gilbert would be in the former camp. I’ve heard left-handed pitcher Cooper Hjerpe here, too.
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Scouting report: Gilbert was a two-way prospect out of a Minnesota high school but had a strong commitment to Tennessee, so he wasn’t drafted until the hometown Twins took him in the 35th round in 2019. He’s only thrown 16 innings for the Vols, none this spring, but he’s turned into a premium defensive center fielder with a strong eye at the plate and ability to hit for average. Gilbert rarely swings and misses, staying back even through contact, with minimal weight transfer — possibly an avenue for a player development group to try to get another half-grade of power out of him. In center, he’s a 6 defender with a 6 arm, doing it more with reads and instincts than pure speed, as he’s just a tick above average as a runner. The defense and contact skills give him a good chance to be a regular, although there’d have to be something more — more power, greater patience — to make him a star.
23. Toronto Blue Jays: Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee
General sense here is college bat, like Beck, Gilbert, Beavers and Peyton Graham. The broad belief is that the better high school bats will go in the teens, and by the 20s, we’ll see a run on the next tier of college hitters plus the start of the college pitchers like Hughes, Hjerpe and maybe Adam Mazur.
Scouting report: Beck has risen up draft boards this spring with a solid, but hardly spectacular, performance, but one that is also supported by tools and athleticism that give scouts reason to believe he can continue to improve in pro ball. Beck has a great build for a hitter, 6-3, 225, with quick wrists and huge raw power that has yet to show up consistently in games, even though he plays in a homer-friendly stadium in Knoxville. He’s very rotational at the plate and has the strength to drive the ball out to all fields, but his approach and pitch recognition have held him back. He’s shown weakness on the outer half, especially on sliders, and expands the zone away too easily. He’s struck out nearly twice as often as he’s walked and hit .252 in regular season SEC play, ranking fourth on the team in homers (16). He’s an above-average runner who plays right field for the Vols because they have a superior defender in center in Drew Gilbert; if he can play center in pro ball, it would substantially add to his value. He’s benefiting from a weak draft class that has left teams looking for upside in unexpected places.
24. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-City ValleyCats (independent)
This one has some legs, as the Red Sox were heavy on Rocker once he started pitching for Tri-City in June, with people at every start, and they were serious about him last year until Marcelo Mayer fell into their laps at pick No. 4.
Scouting report: Rocker was the 10th-overall pick last year, selected by the Mets, but the team declined to offer him a contract after finding something they didn’t like in his post-draft physical. Rocker left Vanderbilt to pitch for the independent Tri-City ValleyCats in upstate New York, where he was 95-98 in his first outing with two above-average breaking balls and an adequate changeup, showing a lower arm slot than he had last year. Rocker has shown a plus-plus slider at times in the past, and there’s no reason to think his fastball is back but his slider isn’t. He has always had better control than command, and while he’s shown incredible competitiveness in some games — like the no-hitter he threw in 2019, when he was pushed to 131 pitches — he’s also had outings where he seemed to struggle to adjust mid-game. He has No. 2 starter upside, if healthy, but the risk associated with his medicals may make him a better bet for some team’s second pick.
25. New York Yankees: Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
I’ve heard they’d love to get Porter, which is more relevant because it might make it impossible for some team to try to pay him down to their second pick in the 30s. I mentioned the rumor last time that they were on Tyler Locklear of VCU; they could be a fit for Beck, Brock Jones, Spencer Jones or Hjerpe. And I wouldn’t be shocked if they reached a little for a toolsy high school player like Nick Morabito, Robby Snelling or Jacob Miller.
Scouting report: Hughes took a big step forward in command this year even as his stuff ticked up, all of which has put him into first-round consideration. He’s sitting 93-94 mph now, touching 97 mph, up almost 2 mph from last year, with a hard slider in the low to mid 80s that misses a lot of bats. He’s huge, 6-5 and 225 pounds already, with a workhorse frame but a longish arm action that he has a hard time repeating. He has a changeup that he barely uses, although it’s been effective when he has. There’s some reliever risk here from the delivery, and the fact that his command is still probably a soft 45, but there’s also big upside given the frame and the two pitches he already has.
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26. Chicago White Sox: Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen High (Reno)
I’ve only heard pitching here, including Snelling (which I think would be a great outcome for the White Sox), Hjerpe (of course, since he gets compared to Chris Sale by his adherents) and Blade Tidwell.
Scouting report: Snelling has flown up boards this spring thanks to his athleticism and one of the better curveballs in the class. He’ll sit 92-93 mph and has touched the mid-90s, but the curveball is the selling point here, in the upper 70s with angle and tight rotation. He shifts his hand position for the two pitches, though, visibly on top of the fastball and on the side of the breaking ball, which better hitters might pick up on to distinguish the pitch type out of his hand. He accelerates his arm very well at the end of a pretty clean delivery, with a little bit of a head-jerk at release. He’s a former quarterback who has the athleticism you’d expect from a two-sport player, but many quarterbacks haven’t been able to translate their arm strength into baseball success. He also needs to develop a third pitch, although the fact that he’s left-handed and has a now breaking ball gives him a higher floor than most high school pitchers can offer.
27. Milwaukee Brewers: Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State
I think Hjerpe goes to a team that weighs its analytical output over traditional scouting, which applies to Milwaukee. I’ve also heard the Brewers with other college arms like Justin Campbell, Mazur and Thomas Harrington, although Harrington’s stock took a hit in his last outing.
Scouting report: Hjerpe had eye-popping numbers this spring for the Beavers, with a Division I-leading 161 strikeouts and a strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate that ranked second, behind only a 23-year-old sophomore at FIU. Hjerpe does it with two potentially plus secondary pitches in his slider and changeup — the former getting big sweeping action from his low slot, while the latter is helped by the deception in his delivery. The delivery is one of the main concerns, however, as Hjerpe cuts himself off and comes way across his body, while he delivers the ball from a very low slot not far above sidearm. The other concern is that his fastball is ordinary, 88-93 mph now, with multiple scouts saying they fear it’ll go backwards in pro ball when he’s asked to pitch every fifth day. He may be able to start thanks to those two secondary pitches, but there is no big-league starter in recent memory who was this cross-body, so Hjerpe may have a lot more upside in the bullpen instead.
28. Houston Astros: Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama
I think Prielipp goes in the 20s after he looked good at the MLB Draft combine and has shown enough to convince teams he hasn’t lost anything after 2021 Tommy John surgery, with the idea that he’d be able to pitch most of next year and perhaps move as quickly as his post-rehab workload permits. Prielipp was probably heading for a top-five selection before his elbow went last spring.
Scouting report: Prielipp had Tommy John surgery at the end of May 2021, ending his college career after just seven starts and 28 innings across two seasons. He returned to throw a bullpen right before the SEC tournament, mostly 90-92 with flashes of the slider he’d had before the injury, when the slider was plus and his changeup was good enough to project him as a starter. He cuts himself off when he lands, coming back a little across his body, although that and the low 3/4 slot also add to his deception. He might have been in consideration for the first-overall pick had he stayed healthy — and performed — but now seems more likely to get a deal in the second half of the first round. As for his future, he could be a high-end starter, and he could easily end up in the bullpen. He’s thrown so little in games that the range of his potential outcomes is huge.
29. Tampa Bay Rays: Sterlin Thompson, 2B/1B, Florida
The Rays don’t really have a “type,” at least not anymore, going high school hitter, high school pitcher, college hitter and high school hitter/college pitcher (the latter of whom was Shane McClanahan) in the last four drafts with their first-rounders.
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Scouting report: Thompson is a draft-eligible sophomore with a pretty left-handed swing and the potential for plus power, showing a solid two-strike approach for the Gators this spring while hitting well even in SEC play. He’s a below-average runner who’s limited to an outfield corner and could end up at first base, which definitely caps his value upside. His best tool is the hit tool, which is the hardest one to evaluate, and if he doesn’t in fact end up with a 55 or 60 hit tool, he’s not going to have much of a role in the majors. Primarily a corner outfielder, Thompson has played a lot of second base this year for the Gators, and improved enough as the season has gone on that many scouts believe he’ll be able to stay there in pro ball. He’s shown he can hit good velocity with doubles power right now, enough that he should be a mid first-rounder this July.
30. San Francisco Giants: Brock Jones, OF, Stanford
It’s a coincidence that I’ve got the Giants taking a local kid, but he does fit their player development archetype of a hitter with tools and some feel to hit who also needs some refinement either in his swing or approach. I’ve heard them some with Gilbert, who should be long gone by this point. Sterlin Thompson would fit as well. I’d bet college over high school, though; they’re more likely to go over slot on a high school kid after this pick.
Scouting report: Jones came into the spring with top-5 pick buzz, then got off to a miserable start for the Cardinal, but he turned his season around when conference play started, hitting .350/.490/.795 in the PAC-12 — albeit with a 26 percent strikeout rate. A former football player who played one year for the Cardinal, Jones has 25 homer/25 speed upside if he hits enough to get to it, with the speed to potentially stay in centerfield. Even in this generally successful season, Jones has done nearly all of his damage on fastballs, whiffing on nearly half of the offspeed pitches he swings at. There are better pure hitters in this year’s draft class, and thus position players with more probability of reaching the big leagues and having some kind of positive value, but Jones beats most of them in potential upside.
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: Cal Poly Athletics, Team USA and Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
