The Cubs were busy Friday, trading three players who are headed for free agency this winter in Javier Báez (to the Mets), Kris Bryant (to the Giants) and Craig Kimbrel (to the White Sox), acquiring a pair of high-floor, low-ceiling prospects as well as two more guys with some upside.
Báez is one of my favorite players to watch, with his electric bat speed, incredible reflexes, tags that look like magic … but my rational self can’t ignore that he’s played in 150 games since the start of 2020 and has a .271 OBP thanks to just 22 walks, along with 206 strikeouts in that span. He’s become less disciplined since his peak year in 2018, when he finished second in the MVP voting, with a strikeout rate that has gone up each season since then. This seems like an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle — we know Báez can be more productive than he has been this year, and if he pulled a Yoenis Céspedes for the next three months, it shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Cubs also sent Trevor Williams, who gives the Mets another swingman/depth starter option, in the deal.
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The Cubs get the Mets’ first-round pick from 2020, outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who played just six games this year in Low A (going 10-for-24 with 7 walks) before tearing the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and requiring season-ending surgery. Crow-Armstrong is a plus runner and a potential 70 defender in center with great instincts and very good feel to hit, having succeeded as a high school player in Southern California against good competition, although he’s also shown more swing-and-miss than you’d like from a player with this low-power profile. He’s a future leadoff type and in many ways looks like the player Albert Almora was supposed to become, especially because he has the approach at the plate that Almora never developed.
Then Chicago sent Ol’ Blue Eyes Bryant to the Giants, in a trade that had been rumored to happen for weeks. Bryant has bounced back from last year’s disaster season to hit .267/.358/.503, showing power commensurate with his best seasons but not quite the same patience. He can help the Giants at multiple spots, but that .210/.282/.387 line San Francisco has gotten from its left fielders stands out for its sheer ugliness. If Bryant did nothing but stand in left and hit like he has so far this year, he’d make an appreciable difference to the offense.
The Cubs’ return for Bryant was two solid prospects of very different types. Outfielder Alexander Canario has plus bat speed and projects to hit for 25-30 homer power, but he’s had a rough year in Low A as a 21-year-old, hitting .234/.325/.433 with a 28 percent strikeout rate. The power is there, especially when you consider that his home park in San Jose has long dampened home runs, but this is a pitch recognition problem the Cubs will have to work on immediately. He’s played mostly right field this year after working in center before 2020. The power would make him a regular there, as long as he hits enough to get to it.
Right-hander Caleb Kilian was the Giants’ eighth-round pick in 2019 out of Texas Tech, and in 100 2/3 pro innings up through Double A, he has now walked all of 11 guys and struck out 113. He’s always had a good fastball, working at 93-95 as a starter this year, though his slider has become a possible out pitch for him and he has the four-pitch mix to be a starter long-term, including enough changeup to neutralize lefties. I’m also intrigued by any college pitcher who finds some new pitch or other skill in pro ball, since we tend to treat those guys — especially when they’re not high picks — as finished products.
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The Cubs sent Kimbrel to the South Side of Chicago in exchange for the White Sox’s first-rounder from 2019, second baseman Nick Madrigal. Kimbrel’s control abandoned him last year, and now it’s back, although I’d certainly worry it could go away again at any time. His stuff is the same, but he’s just locating it better this year, especially with keeping his fastball out of the middle of the zone. Whenever he pitches for the White Sox, he helps.
Madrigal is … what he is. He’s nearly impossible to strike out and has about as much power as a watch battery. (Speaking of which, timing is everything: A week before Madrigal’s season-ending injury, he was hitting .291/.333/.396, then went 6-for-11 off Detroit pitching with a double and a homer.) He’s a fringy defender at second and an average runner. There is a place for a player like Madrigal, who will probably hit for high-but-empty batting averages for a long time, but this is also his ceiling. If he’s your No. 8 or No. 9 hitter, that’s great. If you’re counting on him to be a core offensive contributor, you’ll want more. For the Cubs, though, this is a great return for a year and two months of a reliever who was awful for two seasons and who is still owed over $7 million between this year’s salary and the buyout on his 2022 option.
The Cubs also picked up right-hander Anderson Espinoza in a deal that sent outfielder Jake Marisnick to the Padres to be San Diego’s fourth outfielder. Espinoza has thrown 28 innings in Low A this year, his first time pitching in games since 2016, which was two Tommy John surgeries ago. His arm strength has mostly returned, and he has a solid average or better changeup, but he never had much of a breaking ball before the knife, and if anything, it’s worse now. He’s got to be a reliever given all the lost time and lack of a third pitch but might turn out to be a good one who can approach triple digits with a strong second offering in the change. The Cubs ended up having a strong trade deadline after all, getting a bunch of higher-ceiling guys as well as some probability, including a few players (Madrigal, maybe Kilian) who’ll show up in the majors in 2022, as well as some guys with All-Star upside like Kevin Alcantara (acquired for Anthony Rizzo) and Canario.
(Photo of Kris Bryant: Norm Hall / Getty Images)
