The Rays have a nice balance of depth and upside, with four guys on the top 100 and one on the just-missed list, but their 6-12 range is at least filled with intriguing players who could end up above-average regulars if they get healthy, cut down on the strikeouts, etc. Curtis Mead gives them their best chance for a star, and I don’t think there’s anyone here who makes you think he’ll challenge for an MVP award or a Cy Young Award someday, which is more important for a team like the Rays, who’ll never sign a player like that in free agency, than for most clubs. They continue to bring in a lot of high-upside talent through international free agency, though, even when low first-round picks make acquiring such guys harder through the draft.
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The ranking
1. Curtis Mead, 3B (Top 100 ranking: No. 24)
Age: 22 (as of 7/1/2023) | 6-2 | 171 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
Mead was off to a great start in 2022 when his elbow started to bark, limiting him to just four games after July 23, although he did not have surgery on the joint. The Australian infielder, acquired from the Phillies for Cristopher Sánchez, hit .305/.394/.548 as a 21-year-old in his first go-round in Double A, then hit .278/.377/.486 in 20 games in Triple A before the injury shut him down. His best position is in the batter’s box, where he’s a high-contact doubles machine who hammers fastballs but can do damage against offspeed too. He’s extremely strong, driving the ball to all fields, even with a swing that always keeps his hands well out from his body. It’s a simple swing with big hand acceleration and a short but firm stride that gets him some additional power from his legs. He’s playable at third base and has dabbled at second, although he’ll likely just be a 45 defender at any skill position. His bat is his ticket, though; he should hit for average, and might be a 35-40 doubles guy in his first few years, while he could find another half-grade of power and convert some of those to homers in his peak.
2. Taj Bradley, RHP (No. 52)
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 150 in 2018
Bradley was the Rays’ fifth-round pick back in 2018 as a projectable but unpolished athlete out of a Georgia high school, and the projection started to come through in 2021 as his velocity jumped to the mid-90s and his cutter/slider became a real out pitch for him. He carved up Double A to start 2022, striking out 31 percent of batters faced and posting a 1.70 ERA, and continued to miss bats and avoid walks in Triple A but became a bit homer-prone for the first time in his career as lefties teed off on his four-seamer. The pitch has plus vertical break and above-average spin, but he throws it too often to left-handed batters and needs to use his developing changeup, which has good tumble, more in those situations. He has a very good delivery he repeats well to be this kind of strike-thrower, coming from a high three-quarters slot with a short arm stroke, all of which gives him extra deception. He still projects as an above-average starter, but the hiccup in Triple A underscores the need for him to be more than just a fastball/cutter guy.
3. Kyle Manzardo, 1B (No. 81)
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 63 in 2021
Manzardo had an incredible full-season debut for the Rays, hitting .327/.426/.617 between High A and Double A just a year out of the draft, with 22 homers and almost as many walks (59) as strikeouts (65) — and that’s despite missing a month early in the season with mononucleosis. He’s a very disciplined hitter who posts strong exit velocities without a huge swing, so his power is more line drive than big fly and he may be a 40-50 doubles guy rather than a 30-homer guy, using the whole field to keep that contact rate up. He’s also shown himself to be more than a capable defender at first. I suppose someone could try to alter his launch angle for more home-run power, but Manzardo is plenty valuable as he is — someone who might hit .300-.320 with walks and doubles while playing above-average defense at first. Those guys don’t make the Hall of Fame but they are an endangered species in our all-or-nothing baseball era.
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4. Junior Caminero, 3B (No. 99)
Age: 19 | 5-11 | 157 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
The Rays acquired Caminero in a November 2021 trade that sent Tobias Myers to Cleveland, and, well, sorry Guardians fans, but I think this one might sting. (The Guardians designated Myers for assignment in July.) Caminero can really hit with exceptional hand-eye and bat-to-ball skills to match, posting a 15.9 percent strikeout rate between the complex league and Low A last year. He swings with intent to do damage, too, hitting 11 homers in 62 regular-season games plus 14 more in 39 games so far in the Australian Baseball League, putting him second only to a 29-year-old. There are a lot of moving parts to his swing, with busy hands before he gets his swing going, so he has to work on staying balanced and may at some point need to quiet things down to ensure he’s on time against better pitching. He’s not a runner and is already moving off shortstop, playing a little more at third in 2022 than his old position, but he’ll stay on the dirt and could be a 55 defender at third or second. There’s real power upside in here along with that natural feel to hit, enough that he’d profile as an above-average regular or even a star, with the typical variance in any 18-year-old hitter who’s barely played above the complex leagues.
5. Carson Williams, SS (Just-missed list)
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 28 in 2021
Williams has top-25 prospect upside, especially after the Rays worked with him on his running stride and took him from maybe a 50/55 runner to a 70 runner who swiped 28 bags in 38 attempts last year. He’s a plus defender at short with a 70 arm and showed plus power last year, with 22 doubles, 10 triples, and 19 homers as a 19-year-old in Low A. It’s very much power over hit though; he struck out 168 times last year, a 32 percent rate that maintained throughout the season, and that’s the main reason he’s not on the top 100. He’s absolutely young enough to improve, and I’m mindful of the fact that this is exactly the kind of player who would have gone to short-season ball prior to the Manfredization of the minors, where Williams probably would have done all the same stuff but with less punch. For right now, he just misses the cut.
6. Cole Wilcox, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-5 | 232 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 80 in 2020
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Wilcox blew out not long after the Rays acquired him from San Diego in the Blake Snell trade, making 10 starts for Low-A Charleston in 2021 before the injury. He returned at the very end of 2022 to make seven appearances while rehabbing, and he was back up to 95-96 mph with heavy sink and a plus slider once again. Wilcox has always had incredible arm strength; I saw 97 from him in high school and he carried that through two years at Georgia, topping out at 100 for the Dawgs. He had trouble with consistency due to a longer arm swing, and his fastball tends to play down from the elite velocity if he doesn’t get it down at the bottom of the zone or below it. He’s got No. 2 upside if everything comes back and the Rays can get him to repeat the arm swing a little bit more.
7. Mason Montgomery, LHP
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 191 in 2021
The Rays’ sixth-rounder from 2021 finished his first full pro season in Double A as his velocity climbed early last season, peaking at 97 mph before he settled back in at 93-94 later in the year. His fastball has good carry up top, generating swings and misses at the top of the zone, while he has a plus changeup and a slider that’s solid-average but good enough to get chase swings so far. He punched out 34 percent of batters at two levels last year with an 8.6 percent walk rate, which is more a sign of his readiness for the majors than a high long-term ceiling. He’s a potential mid-rotation guy who should see the majors this season.
8. Willy Vasquez, 3B
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 191 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019
Vasquez hits the ball extremely hard with some of the highest exit velos in the system, but got off to a miserable start in 2022, struggling to adjust to better pitching. He was way better in the second half — from July 1 on, he hit .326/.386/.557, walking more and striking out less while hitting 9 of his 10 homers on the whole season. He’s a 55-60 runner who projects to plus power, assuming he can carry the improved approach forward to High A this year. His biggest question is actually his ultimate position, as he might be able to play shortstop but has mostly played third base with a little bit of second.
9. Mason Auer, OF
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 161 in 2021
For raw tools, Auer is at the top of the system. It’s plus run, plus arm, plus range, plus power, but there is a lot of swing and miss here when he’s facing decent stuff, enough that I rated him outside the top 100, well below what you might call the sum of the parts. If this guy hits, and he might as he has good bat speed and isn’t just a hopeless hacker up there, he’s a 55 who runs all over the outfield and creates some havoc on the bases. I love how he plays, too, the proverbial “hair on fire” guy who will make defenses work harder when he’s up. I just have to see him hit against Double A pitching to buy in.
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10. Osleivis Basabe, IF
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 188 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2017
Basabe just hits, .324/.385/.462 last year between High A and Double A at age 21 with 39 doubles, so while he doesn’t have much projection at all, he could be the Rays’ utility infielder right now and might end up a regular at third or second. It’s elite contact skills with an over-aggressive approach, which is how you hit .333 and fall short of a .400 OBP, putting the ball on the ground a ton but hard enough to generate a bunch of singles and keep his average up. I suppose someone could tweak his swing to try to get him to hit more line drives; I wouldn’t touch him until there’s some evidence this approach won’t work for him.
11. Carlos Colmenarez, SS/2B
Age: 19 | 5-10 | 170 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2021
Colmenarez broke his hamate bone before the 2021 season which sapped his strength for the rest of the summer, after which he tried to lift and cheat more at the plate to make up for the power he’d lost. He was still showing some of those bad habits last year, even though his wrist and hand strength should be back. He’s an above-average runner who has a chance to stay at shortstop, but I’m concerned about the direction of the bat at this point.
12. Brock Jones, OF
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 197 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 65 in 2022
Jones had first-round tools but got off to a miserable start last spring for Stanford, improving once they got into Pac-12 play, although he still swung and missed more than you’d like in a player of his talent level. He has plus power, plus speed, and the ability to play center. He hits fastballs, but offspeed stuff posed a problem in and outside of the zone. He’s a bit like Auer, but more so, with worse pitch recognition but similar upside due to his athleticism and potential play up the middle.
13. Santiago Suarez, RHP
Age: 18 | 6-2 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2022
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Suarez came over from Miami in the trade that sent J.T. Chargois and Xavier Edwards to the Marlins. He’s got a mature body for 18, but he’s already up to 95-96 mph with a good delivery and clean arm action, throwing strikes with three pitches and showing good spin on the breaking ball. He’s very strong already, with good flexibility, so we’re not waiting for projection, either. If he stays healthy, this was a heist for the Rays.
14. Xavier Isaac, 1B
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 240 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 29 in 2022
Isaac was overweight the summer before his senior year, showing power at showcases and a good swing but with a body that might have pushed him to DH. He did improve his conditioning and showed a better hit tool last spring, although he was still a reach when the Rays took him in the first round, not least because the history of high school first basemen taken up there is quite poor. He moves well for a bigger kid and should stay at first base as long as he keeps the weight off. The biggest question will come when he’s facing better stuff with the wood bat this spring.
15. Ryan Cermak, OF
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 71 in 2022
Cermak was the Rays’ fourth pick, taken between rounds two and three, in 2022 out of Illinois State, showing great bat speed and plus raw power with 50/55 speed. He’s likely to move to a corner in pro ball and didn’t face good pitching as an amateur, with no wood-bat experience in the summer of 2021. He could have everyday upside if he hits, but that is a wide-open question.
16. Yoniel Curet, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019
Curet works in the mid to upper 90s with easy velocity and big power to the breaking ball, although the pitch is inconsistent and he’s still working on a changeup. He’s 6-2 and very physical, around 225 pounds already at age 19, built like a workhorse starter. His command and control lag behind his arm strength, with a 15 percent walk rate between the FCL and two late-season starts in Low A. It’s all upside with low probability.
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17. JJ Goss, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 36 in 2019
Goss missed most of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery but returned last year to pitch a full season, with his stuff creeping back as the year progressed. He made the most progress with his changeup, a clear third pitch for him back in the draft in 2019, while the fastball and slider might be a half-grade below where they were before he got hurt. He’s more of a fifth starter type now, but had a mid-rotation ceiling before and could recapture that upside if the velocity comes all the way back this spring.
18. Dom Keegan, C
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 134 in 2022
Keegan was a senior sign out of Vanderbilt, taken in the fourth round, showing big thump and a chance to stay behind the plate. He hit well enough in the SEC to offer the upside of an everyday player as long as he’s a catcher, with a high probability that he’s at least a backup.
19. Greg Jones, SS
Age: 25 | 6-2 | 175 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 22 in 2019
Jones is an 80 runner and exceptional athlete who remains a poor player of baseball. He hit .238/.318/.392 as a 24-year-old in Double A, whiffing on anything that wasn’t a fastball, and he remains a below-average defender at short. He needs to go to center field, although maybe that won’t matter if he can’t hit anything with a wiggle and a shake. He’s only still on this list because he is an 80 runner with a capital 8 and a capital T, and he’s strong enough to be more than a singles hitter. He’s just running out of time. (Get it? Running? I’m so tired.)
20. Austin Vernon, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-8 | 265 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 311 in 2021
Vernon is, for now, the last player ever drafted out of North Carolina Central University, which killed its baseball program in his draft year of 2021. He’s a clear reliever with violence in the delivery, but it’s a 55/60 fastball and a 60 or better changeup. He’ll never be much for command, but his control was a strong 45 when he pitched in relief, with a 10.4 percent walk rate out of the pen against 19.1 percent when he started.
Others of note
Heriberto Hernandez is in the outfield full-time now, with big power but too much swing and miss and a whiff rate over 30 percent in High A as a 22-year-old. He has some patience and the power is enough to make him a regular if he hits enough to get to it … Lefty Ian Seymour was a mess in five starts for Double-A Montgomery before going down with Tommy John surgery. The Rays’ second-round pick in 2020 out of Virginia Tech, Seymour would show an average fastball and plus changeup with enough command and control to be a back-end starter … Chandler Simpson was their third pick, No. 70, after the Georgia Tech shortstop led Division I hitters in batting average, but it’s 20 power and not much hope of more … Righty Nick Bitsko’s first return from 2020 shoulder surgery was not successful, as he walked 27 men in 26 innings without the same pure stuff he’d had when the Rays took him in the first round.
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2023 impact
There isn’t an obvious opening for Mead, but he’s ready to hit major-league pitching. Montgomery or Wilcox could see the majors in the second half depending on health and the team’s needs.
The fallen
The Rays gave right-hander Sandy Gaston $2.6 million as a free agent in 2018, but the hard-throwing Cuban has never thrown strikes, walking 56 in 54.2 innings last year in Low A and 15 more in 8.1 innings in the AFL.
Sleeper
Vasquez’s second-half surge looks real and sustainable to me, and regardless of his ultimate position, the bat should play.
(Photo of Curtis Mead: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)
