Klawchat 9/8/23.

Keith Law: Speaking as a child of the ’70s … it’s Klawchat.

Jeb: When would expect Skenes to make his debut in the MLB?
Keith Law: If healthy, probably June or so of next year, depending maybe on whether the Pirates need him (if they’re contending in the first half). I do think he’ll have to work with his changeup a lot more before he comes up.

Jacos: Should cubs bring up PCA?
Keith Law: I don’t see the harm, but is there really playing time for him?

Nick: Do you have any concerns about Justin Crawford’s groundball rates? Is that something that will change as he gets stronger?
Keith Law: Not really. Getting guys to elevate the ball more is one of the easier things to do, according to player development folks I’ve asked over the years.

Kevin: Is Ke’Bryan Hayes turning into an elite 3B? Seems like he is finally figuring it out.
Keith Law: Defensively? I have always thought he was elite. I know he’s been on a tear at the plate recently but it’s a small sample. I’m still a fan, always ranked him pretty high, but I don’t want confirmation bias to push me here into buying into a 30-game stretch.

Steve O: I know it’s a small sample, but have you caught any Jasson Dominguez at bats in the bigs?
Keith Law: Yes but not to alter my opinions of him at all.

PJ: What is the track record of starters like Justin Steele who primarily only throw 2 pitches.  Is success sustainable long-term as a starter?
Keith Law: It’s rare, but there are exceptions. The main thing that makes me think this is sustainable is that he gets RHB out better than LHB, and as a lefty he has some natural advantage against LHB anyway, holding them to a .301 OBP this year.

addoeh: Is Justin Steele a candidate for your annual “guys I was wrong about” column?
Keith Law: He’s on it. It’s running at some point next week.

Alex (Austin): Giants seem to be stuck in this weird place of having money to spend, no one takes their money, and then it seems like they were lucky to miss (Correa, Judge).  Are they ever going to spend this money?
Keith Law: Yes, eventually they’ll find a fit, but as a fan you’d rather they spent that money on the right guys.

Tyler: What are your thoughts on Termarr Johnson’s first full season? 100 walks and around 20 HRs for an 18/19 year old in A/A+ seems like a good start….
Keith Law: That’s not the whole picture, though. He’s hit .243 on the year with a 26% strikeout rate, not great for a guy whose main tool was his ability to hit. You can’t just cherry pick those two counting stats without looking at the entire body of work. I do still like Johnson quite a bit but I really thought he’d make more contact.

JG: Keith, thanks in advance for the chats and the insight. I always learn something new.
Help me make sense of Dusty continuing to start Maldonado over Diaz and Dubon over McCormick.
Keith Law: I’m sure the Maldonado preference is about defense, right or wrong. Isn’t McCormick basically playing every day, just in RF when he’s probably the better choice in CF?

Tony: What are your feelings on Evan Carter this year? Do you believe his profile will succeed in the majors?
Keith Law: Wrote a little about him last night: https://theathletic.com/4843398/2023/09/07/rangers-promote-evan-carter…

Shatkins: Thoughts on Davis Schneider’s Ruthian start? Just a guy, or a starter on a contending team?
Keith Law: Just a guy, without a position.

Mike: Thoughts on Kyle Schwarber, leadoff hitter? Appropriate, if unorthodox, lineup construction? Or waste of a power bat before other runners get on base?
Keith Law: Would prefer to see him bat lower for that reason – HR leader in the leadoff spot seems to leave some runs on the table.

Long Time Listener: What’s wrong with Javier?  He was almost untouchable last year and he looks mediocre this year.
Keith Law: His stuff is down – lower velo on the FB, much less break on the SL – so he’s missing a lot fewer bats. Could be injury, could be fatigue.

Mike: Hi Keith! Do you think Reese Olson will be a solid starter for years to come?
Keith Law: Back-end starter, yes.

Jack: How would you grade Ben cheringtons rebuild up to this point?
Keith Law: He’s significantly boosted the talent in the system, and you’re seeing some of that in the majors. The challenge will be converting that into big-league wins – getting more pitching, getting all these guys to develop at the same time, finding the key to the fourteenth lock on Nutting’s pocketbook.

Alex (Austin): What’s going on with Jack Leiter?
Keith Law: I don’t have a great answer beyond that maybe we were all wrong about the command/control back in college.

G: First of all I want to thank you for standing up for trans rights love you Keith!!! Second, seems like Cade Horton is something to be really excited about as a cub fan. Ive seen people on twitter say he has 4-5 real pitches but don’t really trust that. Just how good is he?? How many real pitches does he have?
Keith Law: Three for sure. Cubs helped him develop a real CH since drafting him – really since the fall – and that changes his whole outlook. Good job by player development on that one.

Tony: With the Reds pumping up all of their prospects, do senzel and india get bumped out to make room for everyone else next year?
Keith Law: Senzel’s time seems like it’s up, but I don’t think they’re as keen to move on from India as that.

Braydon: Has Thomas Saggese’s stock gone up since the trade deadline, or is he just on a huge hot streak?
Keith Law: He’s good. I don’t know if his stock has changed since he’s been on an upward trend for about 15 months now. It’s not like Ragans, whose value today would be way higher than it was at the time of his trade.
Keith Law: Sorry, that is Keith Law Breakout Pick ™ Cole Ragans.

Mark: What in gods name is going on with the Nationals? Some really damning stuff coming out that’s taking the bloom off what has been a surprisingly fun season up until this point.
Keith Law: Are they just dumping salaries to try to prep for a sale? It’s pretty ugly. They let go of a lot of good people, and for a team that needs to keep acquiring talent to get rid of scouts seems really foolish.

Jeremy: I’m going to be in the Chicago area for about a week this fall; what are your must visit places? (Not spending Alinea money, but I’ll be on per diem, so I’m ok spending a bit)
Keith Law: If I could have just one meal there, it would be Monteverde or maybe the Purple Pig.

Alex (Austin): Seiya Suzuki’s statcast page is all red and he seems to be putting up corresponding numbers the last month.  Any reasons for the success spike?
Keith Law: He’s hitting about the same relative to the league as he did last year, at least overall, so I don’t want to read too much into it. I would interpret what he’s done over the last two years as a good indication of his true talent level – above-average bat, solid-average regular.

Carl: Is it concerning that Marcelo Mayer has dealt with nagging injuries in both his pro seasons? Is it fair to say he’s been surpassed by Lawlar?
Keith Law: It would be concerning if it were the same body part getting injured over and over. I’m less concerned since he’s had seemingly unrelated injuries. I don’t think it’s fair to say he’s been surpassed by Lawlar unless your main measure is proximity to the majors. They’re both great prospects.

John: When do you expect Chourio to debut with the Brewers? Is Tyler Black a candidate to be the opening day starter at 3rd base for 2024?
Keith Law: Maybe middle of next year? The good thing for Milwaukee is that they don’t need him with all the other CF options they have (including Garrett Mitchell next year). Chourio’s the long-term answer there but they can take their time with him. It was a tough call between him and Holliday for the #1 spot on the midseason rankings, but Holliday’s a shortstop and that carried the day for me.

Redraft: Knowing what you know now, would you draft Bobby Miller over Strider?  I think I take Miller.
Keith Law: I would too but it’s close.

Deke: Think there’s much chance the Rangers right the ship at this point?
Keith Law: Sure.

Tyler Y: As a lifelong A’s fan, the Las Vegas move is killing me (and also my 8 year old son, who naturally is really struggling to understand why this is happening). I’m not really sure what being a baseball “fan” will mean to me anymore if this happens. Anyway, my question is simply this–can baseball do anything to avoid the short-sighted thinking that would allow a team to flee a top 10 media market to go to Las Vegas purely to get subsidies for a stadium? It isn’t in the best interest of the sport, the players, or really even the A’s in the long-run. But here we are.
Keith Law: MLB can vote to block any team move or sale they want. I don’t think they’ll exercise that in this case because they want the public spigot to keep flowing. If Oakland or California decides to donate a bunch of taxpayer money to John Fisher, that would be better, and then another team could use Vegas as leverage (White Sox? Orioles?), but I don’t see that happening.

Romorr: Sammy Basallo is having a really great season across A/A+, what are the odds he sticks at C? And without catching, a top 100 guy at 1B/DH?
Keith Law: Sounds like he’s a catcher, which makes him a top 50ish guy for me.

Rich Campbell: Of the A’s young position players, who will be viable big leaguers in 5 years? Tyler Soderstrom (21 years old), Lawrence Butler (22), Jordan Diaz (22), Zack Gelof (23), Esteury Ruiz (24), Nick Allen (24), Shea Langeliers (25)?
Keith Law: I feel best about Gelof (bat) and Langeliers (glove) on that list.

Alex: Is Steele one of the guys you’ve missed on the most? 2020 you said he was a 2 pitch reliever.
Keith Law: In 2020 he wasn’t throwing a cutter. I’m fine saying I’m wrong, but he’s not the same guy now that he was in 2020.

Mike: I am infatuated with Nolan Schanuel. Do you think he can tap into meaningful powet?
Keith Law: Some power, not elite power, I think.

Guest: should Colson Montgomery be in line to start next year in Chicago?
Keith Law: I could go either way on this. He missed so much time this year that I don’t think they need to rush him. I’d probably vote for starting him in AAA with the intention for him to stay there for two months or so.

Romorr: I remember a write up you did about Beavers, and it seems since then, he’s taken off a bit. Have you seen him recently, and is there anything different? Surprised the power hasn’t shown up in Bowie yet.
Keith Law: Haven’t seen him recently, sorry.

Kevin: Kyle Teal opening day catcher in 2025 or is that too aggressive?
Keith Law: Any other position I’d say fine, but catching is a much harder job and they may be less inclined to push him.
Keith Law: There’s just way more to learn to be a big-league catcher than to be a big-league anything else.

Hank: What should the Braves do with Vaughn Grissom?
Keith Law: Seems like a trade piece for them.

DNL: Ronnie Mauricio is hitting the ball hard in his cup of coffee, but he’s not getting a lot of lift on the ball. Small sample size, I know, but is his AAA power going to translate to the Majors?
Keith Law: Yes, the power is real. His wrists are so loose and strong that I don’t think he’ll ever have a lot of consistency to the launch angle, though.

DJ: I hate having to ask this, but can we hopefully assume that Urias is fully done, as in will never put on an MLB uniform again?
Keith Law: Assuming the latest allegations are true, then yes, I think this would be the end of the road for him. Let’s say MLB finds sufficient cause to suspend him – he’s probably out for all of next year, and no team is going to rush to sign him after two confirmed DV events, even if he avoids legal consequences. Maybe he works his way back through Japan or another non-MLB league. He got a second chance. If this allegation is true, then what reason would any team have to believe he won’t do this again and again?

Guest: Given that the Phillies play as a 95-win team with Schwarber batting leadoff, are they committed to the bit or is that the best spot for him in their lineup?
Keith Law: Correlation is not causation.

Dave C: How appealing is the Guardians managerial job?  Any thoughts on where they might turn to replace Tito?
Keith Law: Appealing because the front office is considered a good one to work with/for, and there’s certainly some talent there. A bit less than other jobs because the ownership won’t spend. I haven’t looked into candidates, sorry.

Steve O: Is Ben Rice an MLB level talent and does he have a position?
Keith Law: Not really, and no position.

DNL: The Mets are obviously out of it. How important is it for them to get the kids (Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Vientos) as close to 100% playing time here on out? Is it a big failure if Showalter doesn’t do that?
Keith Law: I’m in favor of playing the kids as much as possible.

Leo: How the heck did Kyle Teel make it to the Red Sox? He looks like a major leaguer already.
Keith Law: I don’t understand why he and Matt Shaw slid out of the top 10. I had them ranked 6 and 7 in the draft and I know plenty of scouts who saw them in a similar light, probably more for Teel than Shaw. (I had a few guys tease me about how highly I ranked Shaw before the draft. I just really believe in the bat.)

SJ: Long term, do you take Jordan Lawler over Volpe? Do both stick at SS?
Keith Law: I think they have an even chance to stick at short but Volpe is more likely to get that opportunity. If you saw that play Lawlar made last night, though, you see why I don’t want Arizona to rush him off the position. Probably leaning Lawlar overall at this point but it’s close.

Ed: Is Owen Caissie getting close to the top 100 prospects list?  K’s are obviously a concern but he’s still putting up decent OBP and power numbers.
Keith Law: No. This can’t be a serious question.

Mike: Zack Litell had another nice outing. What do you make of him?
Keith Law: Could be a back-end starter. He’s been a bit lucky on BIP, but we’ve seen plenty of guys hang around as starters because they post super low walk rates like he does, which means even the higher HR rates that often come with that are less damaging.

Ruben Amaro (Renaissance Man): Who would you bet on to have a brighter future, Aidan Miller or Justin Crawford?
Keith Law: Crawford is only five months older and has better tools.

Frank: Is Henry Davis going to be a RF long term or does he eventually move back behind the plate?
Keith Law: In the absence of Endy Rodriguez, Davis is probably still catching full-time.

Tracy: Keith, you were somewhat critical about the Nats decision to move Crews from Low A to AA without going to Wilmington (high A).  However, you had mentioned some time ago that balls fly out of Wilmington’s stadium (and therefore a reason *not* to send top pitching prospects there).  Could it be that the Nats didn’t want Crews to become less selective in his swings because it’s easier to hit home runs there?   Thanks in advance.
Keith Law: That’s incorrect – Wilmington is a tough place to homer, while Harrisburg is slightly homer-friendly.

Ken: NL CY, who ya got? Am I wrong to think it’s a 5-6 person race?
Keith Law: Agreed, even trimming the ballot to 5 would be difficult, and I don’t think that race is close to settled. I have NL RoY this year.

Eric: Can the Dodgers have enough starting pitching for the playoffs without Buehler and assumedly Urias?
Keith Law: I wonder what Buehler’s role will be after his rehab. Maybe they’ll let him go a few innings per outing with long rest? Anyway, the short answer is yes, I think they can.

Matt: Is there a team other than the Angels that will allow Otahni to be a 2 way player if he signs with them?
Keith Law: All.

DNL: DJ Stewart: Late bloomer or Mike Jacobs 2.0?
Keith Law: More Jacobs.

Tyler Y: Any chance Gelof’s start is anything but SSS?
Keith Law: I’m in. He can hit.

Tim: With Patrick Bailey establishing himself as the Giants long term catcher, what would you do with Joey Bart?  Does he have any value at this point?  Seems like a change of organizations maybe his best option at this time.
Keith Law: Yes and I think a lot of teams would still value him as a backup for his defense/power with some chance he could be a starter elsewhere.

Ooglas: AL/NL MVPs if season ended today? Has to be Shohei/RAJr, no?
Keith Law: No. There’s this guy in LA, real good bowler…

johnny g: What do you think of the KW/Hahn situation, looking back? Too much dysfunction that resulted in Reinsdorf moving on, or was there a single incident like the Burger trade?
Keith Law: Reinsdorf is the source of the dysfunction.

Ed: Seems like the Cubs need to take a legitimate shot at re-signing Bellinger in the winter.  If they were to land him, though, is it as a 1b once PCA comes up?
Keith Law: Seems like the best solution all around. They’re in a really good spot right now where they’re likely to have more players than lineup spots, and could use some of that position-player depth to swing a trade.
Keith Law: Someone asked me offline about Shaw’s eventual position. I’d consider moving Hoerner to third, where I think he’ll be just as good as he is at second, and put Shaw at the keystone.

Alex: How surprised are you with how well Patrick Bailey has played?  The defense is elite level.  The caught stealing rate is amazing especially considering the new rules.
Keith Law: He was considered a plus defender out of HS, then in college became more valued for the bat while scouts seemed to question the glove more. Maybe they undervalued the glove because he was hitting so well?

Nick V: Do you think there’s any significant benefit to expensive cast iron cookware (e.g. Le Creuset) or is cast iron cast iron?
Keith Law: Le Creuset is enameled cast iron, so it is coated with a very durable nonstick surface, making it very different from traditional cast iron. I own and use both – I used a LC Dutch oven last night, in fact – but you also don’t need to get the most expensive brand.

DNL: How much money does the injury cost Shohei Ohtani?
Keith Law: I wrote a whole column about that: https://klaw.me/3R28MP0

Henry: Do we have any data yet on how the pitch clock may be contributing to pitcher injuries? It seems like the pitcher injury rate is higher overall compared to previous seasons.
Keith Law: I don’t believe the pitcher injury rate is significantly higher than in previous seasons – and I haven’t seen data either way. There has been research pre-pitch clock indicating that it could lead to more injuries if pitchers didn’t ease up on the throttle.

addoeh: How excited are you for the Rugby World Cup?  Would your wife rather see Wales win the RWC or Eagles win the Super Bowl?
Keith Law: She’s in a meeting but I’m pretty sure she’d say the Eagles.

Sedona: Hey Keith.  What do you think about Kerry Carpenter’s breakout?  Is he for real?  Above avg regular?
Keith Law: I think the power/hit is real – low OBP slugger, average to 55 regular. 19th round!

John Cazale: Has Kevin Parada’s development been disappointing, or is it too soon to conclude anything?
Keith Law: Or he’s been fine? I’m not sure what’s disappointing.

Heather: What do you make of the Red Sox’ hitting/pitching mix in the minors?  Are they incapable, or unwilling, to develop any decent pitching?  The two decent guys they’ve come up with, Bello and Crawford, are holdovers from the Dombrowski Era, and there doesn’t seem to be anyone on the horizon.
Keith Law: They don’t seem to want to draft pitching, at least not high, and haven’t brought it in on the international side, at least not to the extent they’ve gone after bats. I understand that to some extent, because the attrition rate on pitchers is so high, but the game still does require pitching and they have next to none in their system. They do have a hell of a group of position player prospects, though. That Portland team is stacked right now, even without Mayer.

Paul: Keith, love all your books. Any plans for a future tome?
Keith Law: Working on something but no official plans yet.

Chad (STL): What do the Cardinals even do? It doesn’t seem like they have the guys coming. Nolan and Paul older, young bats not hitting and ownership that has always been scared to go much above where they are currently salary wise?
Keith Law: I thought trading Arenado would have been the best choice, but if they sign one good FA starting pitcher, is there any real reason they couldn’t contend next year?

Greasy Nick: Just wanted to say I appreciated your review of Trust! I enjoyed it quite a bit and am challenging myself to be a more frequent, thoughtful reader. Reading your review helped me think about the book differently, which is really helpful for building a habit!
Keith Law: you’re quite welcome! I like those book reviews to start conversations – reading is such a subjective experience that I enjoy hearing about how different books hit my readers differently.

Chris: Thoughts on Yanks moving Pereira, Wells, and esp Martian through the system and all the way to bigs?  Too aggressive or might as well?  Also has your opinion on Wells not being a C changed at all?
Keith Law: Wells can’t catch, and he’s probably a platoon bat. I thought the promotions of the two outfielders were a little aggressive, but Pereira’s on the 40 and I think Jasson has to go on this winter so it’s not the end of the world. More “what the heck” than WTF.

DNL: Mitch McConnell (81) froze twice and Nancy Pelosi (83) just announced she’d seek re-election. Putting the Presidential election aside, how should citizens ensure that leader step aside later in their careers?
Keith Law: Dianne Feinstein’s case is the worst of all. She needs to resign yesterday. The system is rigged to keep politicians in their jobs as long as they want them.

addoeh: For Jeremy going to Chicago.  I tried Kasama, a Michelin starred Filipino restaurant a few weeks ago and thought it was really good.  The chicken adobo was excellent.
Keith Law: Call now to try to get in. That restaurant was on The Bear and apparently it’s impossible to get in now.

Jim: Has Johan Rojas done enough in 100 PA to take over full time in CF for the Phils in ’24?
Keith Law: I like Rojas but that’s a hard no.

Ryan: Keith, as best as I can recall the Diamondbacks haven’t been able to convert a pitching prospect into a successful major league pitcher in quite some time now, and the early returns on Pfaadt/Nelson/Jameson aren’t exactly promising on this front. What is your level of concern on these three? Do you think maybe having launching pad environments in Reno and Amarillo at the AAA and AA levels plays some part in this organizational difficulty?
Keith Law: They are early returns, and that’s the most salient part of your question. None of those guys has pitched that much in the majors yet, and guys do adjust and change over time.

Henry: Is Manfred ever going to get off his high horse about baseball stadiums producing local economic growth? It simply doesn’t.
Keith Law: Of course not. He’s not paid to tell the truth. He’s paid to increase the financial well-being of the 30 owners who employ him. If that means lying about decades of economic research showing that sports stadia do not produce local economic growth, so be it.

Sedona: What is the most likely scenario for Michael Busch?  Traded?  3B of the future?
Keith Law: Seems like he’s headed for a trade, no? Not basing that on gossip or anything concrete.

Tom: Hey Keith, been enjoying your content (sports and non-sports) for years, much appreciate it!  Thoughts on Chiam Bloom potentially being out of Boston this offseason and that team’s direction as a whole?  He’s done well with the ML system, trades have been mixed but he seems reluctant to add in free agency as most big market teams do.  Or is that ownership more likely?
Keith Law: I do not understand the ire towards Bloom. The position-player depth in their farm system has improved substantially just in the last six months, and I think the FA reticence you cite is from ownership, not him.

Sedona: Do you buy Frasso as a starter?  Has River Ryan confirmed your outlook by his performance this yr?  Regular starter?
Keith Law: If you watch Frasso, you’ll see why it’s hard to project him as a starter. All in on Ryan as a starter, though.

Zirinsky: Keith: Lots of “the Yankees are too analytics focused” in the NY media. This is dopey but do you hear anything around the game that validates this in any way?
Keith Law: I think that is a valid criticism at a very micro level that is getting blown up by writers who lack the curiosity to understand what they’re talking about. The Yankees may be focusing a little too much on the wrong metrics. That is not “too analytics focused.” This is a quest for knowledge that will see a lot of teams chase the wrong things. The Cubs bet big on the pitch metrics around Cade Horton’s breaking ball last June, and it had a chance to blow up spectacularly. It didn’t, but that’s the kind of risk you’ll see teams take as data and our analysis of it continue to grow and evolve.

TomBruno23: I have a friend, let’s call him Sean, who is very concerned about Chase Davis’ performance so far in the FSL. What can I tell him to assuage his worries?
Keith Law: The FSL is a pretty lousy place to hit.

TomBruno23: Are you an Immaculate Gridder?
Keith Law: I am not, sorry.

Jon V: Thoughts on what Cleveland is doing? They seem to be all over the place and are now giving ABs to guys like Calhoun and Laureano who have a very small chance of impacting the 2024 roster.
Keith Law: A little confused by the seemingly contradictory directions they’re taking. I also don’t get playing Arias at SS over Rocchio.

Kevin: If Wander never plays again, is that the biggest waste of talent you have ever seen?
Keith Law: That phrasing makes me a little uncomfortable … I guess if you’re saying is that the most talent to go unfulfilled, yeah, he would be up there.

Jackie: When I was a kid, we did the Chevy Chase vacation, and loaded up the station wagon to drive from Massachusetts to Disney World and back one summer.  On our way down, my dad pulled off I-95 unexpectedly, pulled into a parking lot, and said, “All right, everybody out!”  We got out of the car, confused, and Dad said, “All right, you can tell everyone you’ve been to Delaware.  There’s no reason to ever come back here.  Back in the car!”  And we drove on.
Keith Law: He was so wrong. Winterthur, Nemours, several art museums, the Blue Rocks, the beaches, Market Street in Wilmington… hey, we even have a murderer on the loose just over the state line!

Ken: NL CY follow-up: how does Strider trail two of his fellow Atlanta pitchers in WAR, is the ERA that big a component?
Keith Law: Isn’t he leading in fWAR? I haven’t looked in a few days. rWAR is ERA-based, fWAR is component-based.

wickethewok: Any interest in Baldur’s Gate 3? I recall you being a fan of a previous iteration
Keith Law: Yes but I’m terrified to start it and lose 80-100 hours of my life.

Bob: Crews’ timeline the same as Skenes’ – next June?
Keith Law: He gets there sooner, IMO. Wouldn’t shock me if he debuted this month.

Marani: So, which B- two-time All-Star from the 80s or 90s gets into the Hall of Fame this winter?  I can’t believe we haven’t enshrined Scott Cooper yet.
Keith Law: Bob Knepper is disappointed you didn’t push for him.

Expos: Have you been to Montreal recently? Any good food recommendations?
Keith Law: No, sorry. Been 25 years, I think.

Nick: What are Os doing to be hitting on so many of their hitting prospects they draft
Keith Law: They draft and develop well. It’s a combination of things.

TomBruno23: Credit to Nick Ahmed for maxing out his MLB career. 3rd all time in games played by a UConn Huskie (Walt Dropo, George Spinger) and over 500 more than the next guy on the list (Roberto Hernandez).
Keith Law: Yep. Saw him in college, never thought he’d get this kind of run as a position player. Pretty good reliever in college too.

TomBruno23: Is Kade Kretschmar getting close to the top 100 prospects list? Already up to Peoria after signing as an undrafted free agent in July.
Keith Law: No, not in the least. He’s 23.

DevilInLaw: is Elly De La Cruz a future superstar or is the bloom a bit off that rose at this point?
Keith Law: Has superstar ceiling.

Scott U: Is Mason Miller a top end SP or a back end SP at the end of the day?
Keith Law: Reliever. No history of staying healthy. It’s a lot of shoulder stuff, too.

Bobby Cox: LAD just announced Buehler is done for year
Keith Law: Ah, well. Nevertheless

Steve O: Is Drew Thorpe a Guy, or is he more of a 5th starter/good reliever?
Keith Law: Could see a fifth starter there, but the FB is too light to see league-average.

Jon V: Bibee or Williams?
Keith Law: I’m a Bibee guy.

DNL: If you were a closer, what would your walkup song be?
DOB: Keith Law is always pro NY or LA
Keith Law: right, those are the same city
Keith Law: christ, how tiny is your world view if you think someone is biased towards NY and LA

John 2: Kevin Alcantara basically had the same season at a higher level this year as last year. Is it just a matter of time before he breaks out? Is getting stronger really the key, or does the hit tool need to improve?
Keith Law: I like the trend but yes, I think there is (and needs to be) some more strength. He’s gained muscle and improved his body control and coordination so the swing is far more consistent. He still has room for 20+ more pounds and that should be the kind that leads to power.

Matt: Bernie a 80 tool guy? https://twitter.com/janeosanders/status/1700181183567433976
Keith Law: Hey, that’s pretty impressive. I hope I move that well at that age.

Jason: In response to the question about our gerontocracy, thanks for not advocating for term limits that just shift power to bureaucrats, lobbyists, and career staff. At least voters have the option to vote for somebody else (especially in Senate races that can’t be gerrymandered)
Keith Law: Agreed. Term limits are a bad solution.

Jon: All signs are pointing towards Steve Cohen finally being able to hire David Stearns.  What do you see him being able to do with all of the resources the Mets (finally) have at their disposal?
Keith Law: I mean, the Mets went out and spent a bunch of money last winter and that didn’t help. They’ve drafted extremely well over the last decade. What did Stearns do while running the Brewers that would apply to the Mets?

TomBruno23: KLaw I was totally kidding about Kretschmar playing off that one from earlier.
Keith Law: oh sorry, I often can’t tell when questions are sarcastic on here.

Paul: No idea whether the pizza is any good or not, but its great to see customers supporting Dragon Pizza and standing up to that A$$hole.
Keith Law: Yep. Nobody likes a bully.

Yinka Double Dare: I’d much rather hang out in the Delaware beach towns than the Jersey ones.
Keith Law: Agreed. Visit The Station on Kings in Lewes for lunch and take it to a picnic on the beach.
Keith Law: OK, I went a little long this week since it had been ages since my last chat. Thanks so much for all of your questions. My column on guys I was wrong about should run next week, followed by my minor league player of the year column, and then my hypothetical awards ballots in the final week of the season. Stay safe.

Comments

  1. Didn’t get to the chat in time – thanks for doing one! My question concerned the waiver/salary dumps in late August. Was there some sort of GM gentlemen’s agreement that the non-playoff teams wouldn’t claim any of those guys? What’s to stop a team at the bottom of their division from claiming a guy, paying him for a month, then extending him the QO which they know he won’t take, then getting a sandwich pick for their trouble? If the player somehow accepts the QO, they would just trade him next July anyway, so what’s the downside for a bad team to do this?

  2. “I mean, the Mets went out and spent a bunch of money last winter and that didn’t help. They’ve drafted extremely well over the last decade. What did Stearns do while running the Brewers that would apply to the Mets?”

    I think this statement could’ve been made about Andrew Friedman before he left TB for LA as well. I think Stearns brings his know-how from Houston and Milwaukee in how to establish, set up, and run a front office top-to-bottom with the best FO practices known in the game currently. I don’t think he’s the “best of the best” or anything, but I would give him the benefit of the doubt. Frankly, I would’ve just hired James Click, obviously well-qualified and immediately available, last offseason if I were Steve Cohen. But that’s just me.

    • I agree about Friedman and thought of that. I would say in response that Friedman brought a front-office culture to LA that we haven’t seen in Milwaukee or Houston, and that even so, it was far from clear that Friedman would have this sort of success. To his credit, he left a lot of people already in the organization in place, and even promoted some, rather than cutting staff or clearing out old names for “his guys.”

    • If I’m understanding your point, you’re drawing a distinction between the TB front office tree and the Houston front office tree, especially in that the Houston front office tree has cut scouting wherever it has branched out to: Baltimore, Houston, and Milwaukee. (In contrast, TB and its tree have made sure to have R&D and scouting work hand-in-hand from drafting/intl signings through development, etc.) These are fair points, and cutting scouting to the bone can have deleterious effects. But I will say that let’s see how that tree works in NY with an owner that won’t cut costs. Perhaps Stearns believes in scouting but only has worked for miserly owners. With Cohen, who clearly doesn’t shy away from spending, perhaps they’ll beef up scouting, bring over some of Stearns’ folks but also bring over other FO folks from the TB tree or elsewhere. I’m giving Stearns’ the benefit of the doubt is what I’m saying.

  3. While I don’t agree with everything Bloom’s done, or has not, the vitriol towards him from a certain segment of the Sox fanbase is wild. Guy literally can’t do anything right. Same dudes crying before the season that the Sox wouldn’t win 70 games are the same ones complaining that he should’ve done more at the deadline. Every single of of them have an excuse as to why something good for the Sox isn’t connected to Bloom, and inevitably call back to the Dombrowski days when apparently (and to my surprise) the Sox won the World Series every season.

    A miserable lot, and the #1 reason I stay away from Sox articles on The Athletic these days.

    • Bloom picked the most inopportune time to get the job. John Henry went from “win at all costs” to “maximize profitability” almost overnight, and made Bloom the face of that paradigm shift. His first assignment was to trade Mookie Betts (and, even worse, every other GM in the league knew it, which killed his chances of making a good deal for the Sox). When the fan base spent 20 years watching the Sox go toe-to-financial-toe with the New York Yankees, this abrupt change meant that Bloom never had a chance.

      Of course, it doesn’t help that Bloom hasn’t done anything to improve the major league club in four years. Your comparison to Dave Dombrowski is unfortunate — DD went to the playoffs three times in his three full seasons as head of baseball ops in Boston, winning the World Series in 2018. Chaim Bloom is hoping to stay out of the basement for the third time in his four years in charge. Not sure why you’d question the fans’ nostalgia on that one.

  4. Thanks for the NL CY talk! You’re right about fWAR, I hadn’t realized they could differ by quite that much, but Strider’s quite a bit ahead of the other ATL pitchers on Fangraphs (and behind Wheeler, Steele, Gallen, and Snell, and tied with Webb). Feeling pre-emptively bad for the Padres fans after this year if Snell doesn’t win.

    • I feel like it’s Snell and Steele pulling ahead after just another week of games.

  5. Term limits would not necessarily mean kicking good representatives to the curb just as they’re getting their feet wet.
    I would support term limits of 12 terms for Reps and 4 for Senate. The entrenching forces that are causing the problem of decrepit representation are not going away, but we could at least attack the problem at the extremes.

  6. I really wish that Marani had been specific with his comment, since there is literally no one in the HOF who fits the description he listed.

  7. As a response to Tyler Y: I am (was?) a lifelong Expos fan, so I totally relate to and sympathize with the fans of the A’s right now. I tried to follow the team when they moved, but it just wasn’t the same, and wasn’t helped at all by a toxic Nationals online fanbase that went out of its way the blame the fans of the Expos rather than the owners for what happened (and I would expect a similar dynamic if the A’s move). Luckily for my fandom, I had joined a dynasty simulation league a few years before the Expos moved, and enjoyed that enough to stay attached to baseball for long enough for some secondary lesser fanships to arise – the Phillies as my new local team to take my sons to watch, and the Blue Jays as Canada’s other team and an AL team to follow. I’m not sure if any of that will work for you, but if the A’s do move I hope you can find a way for you and your son to stays fans.

  8. Love the PJ ref

  9. Brian in SoCal

    What accounts for the difference between the NFL, where many teams were champing at the bit to sign Deshaun Watson (and where Houston ultimately signed him to a massive deal) despite dozens of sexual-assault allegations, and MLB, where Trevor Bauer and, perhaps, Julio Urias may never play again in the league in the face of accusations of violence towards women? It’s not a question of talent, as both Bauer and Urias are top pitchers. Is it about the fact that top quarterbacks are even more rare and essential to a franchise’s success than ace pitchers?

    Regarding the gerontocracy, I think Nancy Pelosi is a bad example compared to Feinstein and McConnell. Pelosi has shown no signs of decline or health concerns. She is also no longer in leadership, and she’s running for a term that is only two years, unlike the six-year term in the Senate.

    One other random thought: I get that Clayton Kershaw has missed time due to injury, and he has missed time due to injury in each of the last several full seasons. But when he’s active, he is still great. I find it odd that he is completely overlooked in every discussion of top starters that I see on The Athletic or mlb.com (or on MLB Network). The guy had a 2.28 ERA/177 ERA+ and a 0.942 WHIP last year and has a 2.61 ERA/167 ERA+ and a 1.065 WHIP this year.

  10. Re: moving Hoerner to third base, I’ve wondered all season why the Cubs haven’t done this to get Morel’s bat into the lineup at his best non-DH position of second base.