I’m back home after a week in the desert to watch the Arizona Fall League, seeing nine games in my six days out there and catching every team at least twice. I didn’t get everyone I’d hoped to see (I missed Jake Eder and Dylan Smith, to name a few), but wrote up Jackson Jobe, Tekoah Roby, and more in this post and now present to you my thoughts on everyone else I saw of note.
Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto lefty Ricky Tiedemann was the team’s third-round pick in 2021. He started throwing harder that fall in instructs, and carried it over into early 2022, but the last 15 months have seen him deal with three separate bouts of arm trouble, including a shoulder injury this spring and biceps tendinitis this summer. He threw just 44 innings during the regular season and had a 5.06 ERA with 20 walks in 32 innings in Double A, where he spent most of the season. He started one game of a triple-header on Saturday, where all six AFL teams played at Goodyear Stadium, and showed the big stuff but also some of the same delivery issues that make him so high-risk.
Congratulations to Ricky Tiedemann (TOR) on being named the Week 1 NFP Pitcher of the Week!
Tiedemann struck out a league-high seven batters over five innings for the Surprise Saguaros. #AFL23 pic.twitter.com/ZhaG8B0m87
— MLB's Arizona Fall League (@MLBazFallLeague) October 10, 2023
Tiedemann was 93-98 mph across his three innings on Saturday, punching out five and allowing just one walk. His slider was 78-83 but varied some in shape, while he showed good run on an 82-83 mph changeup that gives him a true three-pitch mix to be a starter. The slider can be pretty big, but the changeup was the better pitch in this particular outing. It’s a low 3/4 arm slot and he looked stiffer this year than when I saw him in early September of 2022, while his shoulder is still pretty open at release, all of which would seem to put more pressure on his upper arm to help generate that big velocity while possibly inhibiting his command as well. You have to develop a guy like this as a starter if his health allows it, especially since he has the pitches to get hitters on the opposite side out, but I have concerns about whether he can hold up and throw enough strikes to get there.
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Chase DeLauter, OF, Cleveland Guardians; Carson Williams, SS, Tampa Bay Rays; Jacob Berry, 3B, Miami Marlins
The Peoria Javelinas club has the best collection of hitting prospects of any team in the league this year, including a trio of former first-round picks in Cleveland’s Chase DeLauter, Tampa Bay’s Carson Williams, and Miami’s Jacob Berry. DeLauter missed all of last summer after the draft and the first half of this year with a foot injury, but hit .355/.417/.528 after he returned, spending most of that time at High A with six games in Double A to finish the summer. He’s still got a really awkward swing, opening his hips early with his lead elbow so high that it’s restricting his bat path, so it looks sawed-off and doesn’t let him get to much power. I didn’t see any hard contact from him in two games, but it’s really the shape of the swing and the way his hips work that bother me. He still looks like he’s cheating to get to fastballs, and pitchers will attack him accordingly if that’s the case. He did play excellent defense in right field with an easy plus arm.
Williams is also a plus defender with probably a 7 (on the 2-8 scouting scale) arm and excellent hands, with some hard contact across the three games when I saw him (one single had a 107 mph exit velocity), although he still swings and misses way too often, especially at breaking stuff; I saw six punchouts across three games, four of them on breaking pitches. Williams struck out 32 percent of the time in High A this year at age 20, and he’s at 30 percent so far through two weeks in the desert. He’s young, and the rest of the skill set is more than enough to make him a regular — it’s 55 power, maybe more, and he can field, throw, and run — but at some point he’s going to have to dial up the pitch recognition.
Berry was atrocious, which comes on the heels of an atrocious first full pro season. The Marlins took him sixth overall in 2022, even though he lacked a position, but he just didn’t hit at all this year, with a .233/.284/.388 line between High A and Double A. He’s playing third base in the AFL, and he doesn’t belong anywhere near the position, lacking the hands or range for it. While he’s hitting for more average in the AFL, it’s a lot of soft contact, with just one hard-hit ball in the three games I saw (a single at 108 mph).
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Kyle Manzardo is also on Peoria, and the former Rays farmhand — traded to Cleveland this July for Aaron Civale — hit the longest and loudest homer I saw all week, 460 feet (with a little help from the wind) at Salt River. Manzardo can hit, and it was a lot of hard contact when I saw him this week, including that homer (108.3 mph) and several doubles. He showed good pitch recognition as well, getting hits on all pitch types. He can hit velocity, and the homer came off a hanging changeup. It’s a pretty simple swing and if the added power he’s shown since he came off the injured list for Cleveland — six homers in 21 games in Triple-A Columbus, then three more in eight games in the hitter-friendly AFL — he’s going to be at least an above-average regular at first.
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Max Muncy, SS, Oakland A’s
Oakland infielder Max Muncy, their first-round pick in 2021, played much better in the second half of 2023 after the A’s promoted him to Double-A Midland, a better hitter’s park than their High-A affiliate’s in the Midwest League but not enough so to explain the boost in his performance. He’s looked excellent on defense at shortstop for Mesa, but has been overmatched at the plate, making a lot of soft contact in the games I saw, although I didn’t see that much swing and miss despite his 28 percent strikeout rate so far in the AFL. He needs to get stronger more than anything else I can see; it’s also possible he’s wearing down after playing 123 games during the regular season, as he’s been putting the ball on the ground more in Arizona than he did in High A or Double A.
Oliver Dunn, UT, Philadelphia Phillies
Oliver Dunn was the Yankees’ 11th-round pick in 2019 out of the University of Utah, but the Yankees didn’t even deem him worth a Triple-A roster spot last offseason, exposing him to the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft. The Phillies took him with the very last selection, and while he just turned 26 and doesn’t offer much ceiling, I think they got a big leaguer. Dunn hit .271/.396/.506 this year in Double A, but he was very old for the level, and Reading is the most hitter-friendly park in the Eastern League, so there was plenty of reason to be skeptical of the stat line. All I saw Dunn do all week was hit and run and work the count pretty well too.
He’s a plus runner underway and he’s got a short enough swing to spray the field with contact, although he did punch out 27 percent of the time in Double A. He was completely fine at second base, which is his natural position, with a handful of games at third, in left, and even at short in his pro career; I’d be shocked if shortstop works but he should be fine at the other spots. He’ll play at age 26 all of next year, so what you see is probably what you get, and I don’t want to oversell the guy given the age and the contact issues. I think he’s a decent last guy on the bench, though, or the strong side of a platoon for a non-contending team.
Chicago Cubs prospects: Kevin Alcántara, OF; James Triantos, IF; Christian Franklin, OF
The Cubs sent a trio of interesting position player prospects, highlighted by outfielder Kevin Alcántara, who’s among the youngest players in the league as he just turned 21 in July. He showed ridiculous bat speed and raw power, homering to the opposite field on a 91-mph fastball away from a lefty and doubling down the left field line on 98 down and in from a righty, and some swing and miss as well, losing his bat on a 95-mph fastball away. He made adjustments even within some at-bats, which is going to be the biggest factor that determines whether he reaches his very high ceiling, because he’s going to end up with 70 power and is a plus runner with a strong arm as well.
Behind the cage with #Cubs prospect Kevin Alcántara! #AFL23 pic.twitter.com/ErgCQuLHGS
— MLB's Arizona Fall League (@MLBazFallLeague) October 11, 2023
Alcántara is actually six months older than teammate James Triantos, who is hitting everything he sees in the desert, with a .407/.556/.815 line boosted by three triples even though he’s not exactly a burner on the basepaths. I saw Triantos expand the zone with two strikes a couple of times, which is very unusual for him, but when he stays in the zone it’s consistent medium to hard contact. He’s going to have to find a position, which I assume is why the Cubs have him playing a little center field, since he’s not that strong at second or third and their infield is about to get very crowded. The Mesa Solar Sox team can even field an all-Cubs outfield with Christian Franklin on the roster; he’s probably the best defender of the trio, but offers the least with the bat right now, and he’s still very much a dead fastball hitter as he was in college.
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Caleb Roberts, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona catcher Caleb Roberts can hit, but he can’t catch. The Snakes’ fifth-rounder in 2021 out of Chapel Hill, Roberts was the beneficiary of Double-A Amarillo’s hilariously hitter-friendly park during the regular season, with 16 of his 20 homers coming at home and a nearly 400-point OPS split between his home and road lines, but he can whack right-handed pitching and made a good amount of hard contact when I saw him, albeit never against particularly good pitching. (There wasn’t much good pitching in the league this year. More on that later.) It sort of doesn’t matter in the end, though, because I have no idea where you can play him. He caught 30 games this year, played left field in 42, played first base in eight, and the bat won’t profile at the latter two spots while he doesn’t have the glove or arm to play the first one.
Liam Hicks, C, Texas Rangers
Texas’ Liam Hicks can definitely hit, at least for contact and average, but he is also a catcher in name only, as he doesn’t have the arm for the position in our high-speed game today. Hicks hit everything while I was there, though, getting to pitches in and out and showing he could lay off breaking stuff enough to get to fastballs. He’s 16 for 28 so far with a .571/.647/.714 line, with below-average power (four doubles, no other extra-base hits), and that should get him to the majors as a backup catcher who’s a useful bat off the bench as well.
David McCabe, IF, Atlanta
Atlanta’s David McCabe is in a similar boat — he seems to be able to hit, and has the benefit of being a switch-hitter, but he’s even slower-footed than Roberts and may not be able to play anywhere but first base, where he’s not unseating Matt Olson. McCabe’s a better pure hitter than Roberts, but didn’t get as much of an opportunity in the upper levels, as he spent all year in Low and High A at age 23. He does have more swing and miss than I expected given his low strikeout rates in pro ball, with better velocity giving him trouble when I saw him, but he has a very good left-handed swing and definitely understands the strike zone. He’s the kind of guy who ends up with Oakland or a non-contender and then “surprises” with a 3-4 WAR season at first base when he’s 26.
Reggie Crawford, TWP, San Francisco Giants
The Giants sent first baseman/pitcher Reggie Crawford to the desert, but only to hit, and after several games with him, my evaluation of him as a hitter is I sure hope he’s better as a pitcher. He’s got 16 strikeouts in 33 PA already, and it’s everything — he’s behind velocity and he’s not picking up pitch types. Crawford was always seen as a superior prospect on the mound, where he’s in the upper 90s from the left side, but it’s probably time for the Giants to convince him to give up the hitting part.
Kevin Parada, C, New York Mets
The Mets’ Kevin Parada didn’t catch well and showed a 40 arm, although I have to point out that the AFL can be a treacherous place to evaluate catchers who’ve played a full season because they’re exhausted by October. He’s off to a miserable start in Arizona, with 10 strikeouts and just one walk along with a .259 OBP so far, but I saw his lone homer, a bomb to dead center off a Jackson Jobe changeup, and actually saw half of the six hits he’s had so far this fall in the two games I happened to catch.
Tyler Locklear, IF, Seattle Mariners
Seattle’s Tyler Locklear is another bat without a position, although I didn’t see the impact I got even from McCabe, as Locklear punched out three times in two games and didn’t look like he could get to good fastballs on the inner half because he crowds the plate so much to try to get to the ball away. He was awful on defense at first base as well, as the Mariners have given up on him as a third baseman.
Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox; Jace Jung, IF, Detroit Tigers; Gavin Cross, OF, Kansas City Royals
I only got one game each with Colson Montgomery and Jace Jung, and none with Royals outfielder Gavin Cross. Jung was the DH in the game I saw and didn’t play the other two times I saw his club, including a day off on Saturday’s showcase day. Montgomery also had Saturday off, so there was more than one manager with no feel for the situation. In the one game I saw, Montgomery struggled quite a bit at shortstop.
Pitching notes
Detroit Tigers starters
Detroit right-hander Wilmer Flores is piggybacking with fellow Detroit prospect Jackson Jobe and showed no ill effects from missing almost half the year with a hamstring injury. Flores, the younger brother of the Giants’ infielder with the same name, was 91-95 with an above-average slider and a below-average changeup, lacking much feel for the last pitch. He’s had no trouble with left-handed batters for the last two years, though.
GO DEEPER
Law: Jackson Jobe, Tekoah Roby, and more notes from the Arizona Fall League
Notable relief arms
• There were a number of hard-throwing relievers in the AFL this year who did something else that was good enough to mark them as prospects, even just in that role. Colorado sent two in Juan Mejia and Jaden Hill, both right-handers with big arms. Mejia pitched briefly but sat 96 mph with a slurvy breaking ball, while Hill was 95-97 with a 55 changeup and fringy slider. Hill was the Rockies’ second-round pick in 2021 while he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he’s thrown just 60 innings total in the last two seasons, posting a 9.48 ERA this year in 16 starts for High-A Spokane thanks to 11 homers allowed in just 43 2/3 innings. A move to the pen might be exactly what he needs.
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• San Francisco right-hander Will Bednar was 94-95 with some ride and a good but not elite slider, while he had well below-average control and is now at six walks in 2 2/3 innings. He was the Giants’ first-round pick in 2021 but has struggled with injuries and poor control, missing all of 2023 outside of some rehab appearances with a back issue.
• The Yankees’ Matt Sauer was 94-97 with a 55 curveball, but his delivery remains very violent and he missed half of this year with a forearm strain, four years after he had Tommy John surgery.
• The Phillies’ Christian McGowan is starting in Arizona as he comes back from Tommy John, but I list him here because that’s a reliever’s delivery, very stiff and late and I think not that easy to repeat. He’s got two above-average pitches in the fastball at 93-96 and power slider at 86-88 along with a below-average changeup. Starting him to build up his innings and have him work on command and the third pitch is great. I just think his future is in short relief. The Phils also sent right-hander Andrew Baker, who was 96-98 with a plus slider and didn’t walk anyone in the two outings I saw, a welcome change from the regular season when he walked 48 guys in 41 innings.
• The Dodgers’ Ronan Kopp was 93-95 with very good carry and he had a high-spin sweeper at 85-87, coming from a catapult-like delivery that looked a little different every time, and might have something to do with his 50 walks in 72 1/3 innings during the regular season. He also grunts on every pitch, which may not be the ideal proxy for effort, but doesn’t exactly make me think his delivery is free and easy.
• The Reds acquired right-hander Andrew Moore in the Luis Castillo trade with Seattle a year and a half ago, but he was awful after the deal in 2022 and spent the majority of this season on the injured list with biceps inflammation. It’s an ugly arm action but he throws 97-99 with a hard sweeper with big horizontal break. Strikes are an issue too, with 23 walks in 24 innings between Low and High A since the trade. He just might have had the best pure stuff of any pitcher I saw last week.
• Right-hander Jordan Leasure went to the White Sox from the Dodgers in the Lance Lynn trade, struggling when the White Sox promoted him right to Triple A. He was 95-97 with some carry up top, a hard downward-breaking slider at 87-88, and a decent curveball around 80 mph. He didn’t show a change or splitter, and lefties crushed him this year (.230/.329/.554), so he’s a righty specialist for now, but has two solid pitches as a foundation.
• The Royals picked up right-hander Jacob Wallace last December in a trade that sent Wyatt Mills to Boston; Mills got hurt and missed the entire season, while Wallace walked 40 guys in 49 1/3 innings in Double A, so call it a wash? Wallace was 94-97 with an 85-87 mph sweeper/slider/whatever you want to call it, but of course walked two guys in his inning of work.
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• I have to spare a mention for Pirates right-hander Alessandro Ercolani, who is trying to become the first-ever big leaguer from the country of San Marino, which is basically a town on a hill that is completely surrounded by Italy and has just 33,000 people in it but gets to play against the big boys of Europe. Ercolani was 93-97 with a four-pitch mix, including an 11/5 curveball and fringy changeup as well as a cutter that is still a fairly new pitch for him. His delivery has some effort and he’s a little across his body, so he projects as a reliever in the long run, and right now he’s mostly a right-on-right guy. He’s also just 19 and is still improving, so I wouldn’t count out the potential for something more. Plus, any time we get a big leaguer from a new country it’s worth celebrating.
Pitching, or lack thereof, is the real story of the AFL this year, though. Even with the changes to reduce some of the wear and tear on players, like those later start times for afternoon games that reduce the league’s value to scouts, clubs just aren’t sending enough pitching. The talent in Arizona was probably the weakest I’ve ever seen, but that’s not entirely a surprise given how many prospects debuted in the majors this year or played deep into September as their parent clubs bumped them up to Double A and even Triple A to gain an extra week or two of playing time.
The lack of pitching is a chronic issue, though, and this year it is incredibly thin. In past years, you could generally expect to see a lot of relievers who throw hard and don’t know where it’s going, and some relievers with barely average fastballs but good command or at least control. This year, I saw a lot of guys with barely average fastballs who didn’t know where it was going, and let me tell you, I don’t think those guys are going to make my top 100 this winter. It is tougher to evaluate players when the level of competition is weaker.
There’s no easy solution here; I would love to see MLB penalize teams that send pitchers who have no business being here — if you send a pitcher who walks a man an inning in the AFL, you should lose a draft pick! — but that’s not going to happen. What I would love to see, and have suggested before (as have others), is for teams to use the AFL as a rehab spot for big-league pitchers who need more innings after the regular season has ended. Cleveland got Triston McKenzie back on the mound for two outings in September, one where he walked six guys and then a better one where he went 4 1/3 innings and walked three, but then the season was over. Wouldn’t he benefit from a few outings in Arizona to build up his innings total and maybe continue to work on regaining his command? Given the sheer number of pitchers we have recovering from Tommy John surgery at any given time, the AFL’s spot in the calendar could allow some of those guys to pitch in games when the alternative is waiting until March. It would help the league, and help the pitchers and their teams as well.
(Top photo of Chase DeLauter: Chris Coduto / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
