When I rank prospects every offseason here at The Athletic, I’m considering the players’ eventual peaks and their long-term values, which is why you’ll see guys who were just drafted or have only played in the complex leagues alongside prospects who’ve already made their major-league debuts. For readers more interested in which prospects might have the most impact strictly in the 2024 season, here’s a separate ranking giving you my opinions on the 20 prospects likely to deliver the most value this season. This is as much about playing time as it is about ability — a player who has an everyday job on Opening Day will get about 16 percent more playing time than another player who isn’t up until May 1.
Advertisement
(I don’t count NPB and KBO veterans as prospects, so while Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamato would be my prediction for the National League Rookie of the Year this year, he’s not on this list, nor is Giants outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.)
Top 20 rookies ranked by projected 2024 MLB impact
1. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Is Harrison the only rookie pitcher with a firm grip on a rotation job right now? I think he is, a credit to his talent and perhaps a vague comment on the state of the Giants’ pitching. Harrison kept the walks down in his brief major-league time last year, but I’m a little more bearish on his control in the near term after he threw just 58 percent of his pitches for strikes in Triple A (with the automatic ball-strike system (ABS) in many of those games). I think big-league hitters are going to force him to adjust and throw more strikes over time, but it may take a turn or two around the league for that to happen. That said, I think he’ll strike out 200+ if he makes close to 30 starts.
2. Evan Carter, OF, Texas Rangers
Carter has to be in the Rangers’ Opening Day lineup after his incredible run in the postseason, making him one of maybe three American League rookies at the moment who have clear locks on everyday jobs. I do worry that he’ll have some trouble with left-handed pitchers, as that’s been true for most of his history and teams are going to go after him more often with left-handed relievers. Nonetheless, he has such good plate discipline that he should be just valuable enough against lefties to be more than a platoon guy — and he looks like he could be among the league leaders in doubles if he’s playing every day.
3. Michael Busch, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Busch is a 26-year-old rookie, just barely coming in under the limit for days on the roster with the Dodgers last year, so while the Cubs traded for him to be their regular first baseman, he’s also under no small bit of pressure to produce if he wants to have a career as an everyday guy. Busch has shown both patience and power up through Triple A, with most of the power coming against right-handed pitching. I think it’s 20+ homers in a full season, likely with 60 or so walks and a .250/.335/.430 line.
4. Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
Schanuel is the Angels’ first baseman come hell or high water, and he has shown at least that he can put the ball in play a bunch and get on base, although I’m not sure this is the kind of power most teams are looking for in a first baseman. I see a .260/.340/.400 line with 12-15 homers if he gets 500 PA.
Advertisement
5. Colt Keith, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Keith might struggle on defense this year, but he can hit, and I expect a ton of doubles from the Tigers’ infielder, regardless of where he plays. If he plays 150 games, he might hit 40 doubles and 12-15 homers, and his track record of high contact rates gives me confidence he’ll hit .270-.280, maybe even getting to a .280/.350/.460 line. He’s a dark-horse Rookie of the Year bet going into the year, but he has a clear hold on a job and a history of hard contact that says he’ll be able to keep the job even if he has some issues with the glove. You could do worse than bet on this guy.
6. Parker Meadows, OF, Detroit Tigers
Meadows is the Tigers’ center fielder, having already shown plus defense at the position last year, and I think the bat is going to surprise some people now that he’s cleared up the hitch in his swing and is pulling the ball with some more authority. It might be more 30+ doubles and 15 homers, but I’ll be disappointed if his average/OBP are anything less than .250/.340.
7. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
As much as I believe in Chourio for the long term, which is why I ranked him as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball this offseason, I have more modest expectations for his bat this year, when he’ll be 20 and has just two years of experience above the Dominican Summer League. I think he’ll get off to a slow start, maybe in May and June, and then come on in the second half as he makes adjustments, as he’s done before following level promotions. I’m looking for a .265-.270 average with 15-20 homers and great defense but an OBP that hovers around .300 or just below it.
8. Junior Caminero, IF, Tampa Bay Rays
Caminero’s not going to make the Opening Day roster, although at age 20 he has some time — and he skipped Triple A entirely when he came to the majors last year. I imagine he’ll be up before the midpoint, and if nothing else he’ll make some very hard contact whenever he arrives, but his arrival may depend on the Rays’ other infielders and how they end up addressing the shortstop problem (to which Caminero is not a solution).
9. Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox
Abreu could be Boston’s regular right fielder, after a big uptick in his power last year in Triple A that gave him the production he’d need to be an everyday player in a corner. He’s probably going to strike out more than a quarter of the time, and probably ends up hitting .230-.240, but with a bunch of walks and 15-18 homers, and above-average defense in a corner. He could also back up in center and add some value there if he has to go play there a handful of times over the course of the season.
Advertisement
10. Justin Foscue, IF, Texas Rangers
Foscue could be the Rangers’ DH on Opening Day, or he could slide into the third base spot if Josh Jung has to hit the IL, but either way his bat seems more than ready for the majors, as he’s extremely disciplined and makes a ton of contact. He’s potentially a .280-300 hitter with walks and probably 12-15 homers this year. He’s defensively challenged everywhere, which makes DH the ideal spot, but he could handle second or third on a short-term basis and play below-average defense at either spot while they wait for the incumbent to return.
11. Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers
Langford doesn’t appear to have a job, by which I mean there isn’t a job open for him, because it’s not as if he’s failed to hold up his end of the bargain. The No. 4 pick in last year’s draft, Langford hit at every stop after he signed, and he’s doing the same this March in the Cactus League. If Josh Jung isn’t ready for Opening Day, however, that might open the roster spot for Langford. I had him as the No. 1 prospect in the draft going into last spring, and it looks like I should have stuck to my guns even after he lost a little speed when he suffered a grievous injury last March. It’s average, patience, and power, and the only real reason to hold him down other than a lack of playing time would be for him to work on his outfield defense.
12. Heston Kjerstad, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Someone’s going to break out for the O’s among the trio of bat-first prospects that includes Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, and Coby Mayo; my guess is that it’ll be Kjerstad, as he’s the oldest, is a more complete hitter than Cowser, and doesn’t have the potential to play on the dirt that Mayo offers, which might lead Baltimore to give Mayo more time to work on his defense in Triple A. Kjerstad returned in 2022 from a two-year absence due to the pandemic and myocarditis he developed after a bout of COVID-19, then reached the majors last year after a campaign where he finally looked like his pre-illness self — or better, as he’s making more contact against better stuff. It’s power and hard contact, without many walks, a potential .280/.330/.460 bat that would play at DH or in a corner if there’s an opening.
13. Jared Jones, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jones is making a push for the Pirates’ rotation this spring, which would be somewhat ahead of schedule, but given the rate of pitcher injuries there isn’t really any good reason to hold him back at this point. He’s got a four-pitch mix right now with a plus slider and enough of a changeup that he shouldn’t have too much trouble with lefties. He has enough control to at least hold his own in the majors, although an 11-12 percent walk rate wouldn’t surprise me. He might be a little short of league average this year but has the potential to be a solid No. 3, if not this year then in 2025.
14. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Holliday’s main problem — one he shares with fellow Baltimore prospects Kjerstad, Mayo, and Cowser — is playing time. The Orioles don’t exactly have a lot of openings at the moment, unless one of those guys is suddenly going to start throwing 95 mph with a plus breaking ball. Holliday has the best path to playing time because the Orioles don’t have a strong incumbent at second base, assuming Jordan Westburg is at third and Ramon Urías is at the keystone. Holliday could also start the year in Triple A and bang his way to the majors in a month, as I have little doubt he’d be a better player over the course of a full season than the 30-year-old Urías, whose 2023 line was buttressed by a .355 BABIP and still didn’t get to league-average offense.
15. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
I do not believe the Pirates will waste many of Skenes’ bullets in the minors. While he clearly has things to work on as a pitcher, he might as well do more of that in the majors. I assume he’ll make a couple of home starts each for Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis to keep the affiliates happy, as he ought to be a decent draw when he’s pitching, and then we’ll see him in the majors by Memorial Day. I’d expect a strikeout rate above one an inning, with walk rates around league average but perhaps some trouble with the long ball and hard contact on the four-seamer, as it’s pretty true, and MLB hitters can turn on 100 mph if it doesn’t have much run or ride.
16. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Winn’s value in 2024 may come more with his arm and his legs than with his bat, but I expect him to be a positive defender who at least puts the ball in play and maybe hits an empty .260 or so, enough to steal 20-30 bases, too. He should be the Cardinals’ primary shortstop this year, and given how quickly he’s adapted to better pitching each time he’s moved up the ladder, I won’t be surprised if he’s close to a league-average hitter in the second half, even if the first half is a rough go for him at the plate.
17. Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals
The Nationals took Crews with the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft after the LSU Tiger won the Golden Spikes Award, and I’d be shocked if he was still in the minors on July 1. Crews hit everything for three years at LSU, then raked in Low A before a two-level jump to Double A stymied him late last summer. I expect him to start the year in Triple A and to hit .280+ with some power, although I will be watching to see how he handles fastballs in the upper third of the zone. He’s not exactly blocked in D.C. at the moment.
Advertisement
18. Darell Hernaiz, IF, Oakland A’s
Hernaiz is a good example of why this list often differs so much from my top 100 — opportunity matters. Hernaiz has a good chance to win an everyday job in Oakland, and that’s a great organization for a young player trying to break in, as they aren’t exactly going to go sign an expensive free agent or trade for an established veteran. He’s hit .300+ with OBPs over .370 at High A, Double A, and Triple A, and he struck out just 13.3 percent of the time last year. I don’t expect those results in the majors, but I do see .270-.280 with OBPs in the .340 range, single-digit homers, and 15-20 steals.
19. Matt Shaw, IF, Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are going with Christopher Morel at third base to start the season, and, well, good luck with that, I guess. Shaw was their first-round pick in last year’s draft as a shortstop at the University of Maryland, then played short, second, and third between Low A and Double A, hitting well at both stops. He’s going to start the year in the minors, likely Double A, but if Morel struggles on defense and his extremely high strikeout rates — only five qualifying players struck out more often than Morel’s 31 percent last year — catch up to him, Shaw will have a clear path to playing time.
20. Jackson Merrill, IF, San Diego Padres
Merrill is a shortstop by trade, although if he makes the Padres’ Opening Day roster it would be as a center fielder, a position where he has zero professional experience — his only time in the outfield was five games in left for Double-A San Antonio last year. He’s an instinctive player with above-average speed so maybe he can handle it, but I’d rather see him return to the minors to let his bat develop after a year when he posted a .326 OBP across two levels. He’s one of the best contact hitters in the minors, a skill that could help him stay afloat while he’s working on his defense and recognizing MLB-quality offspeed stuff. I’m both a big believer in Merrill’s long-term upside and a skeptic that he’ll produce much this year.
Others in consideration
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Boston Red Sox
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Graham Pauley, OF/3B, San Diego Padres
More top prospect coverage
GO DEEPER
Top 100 MLB prospects 2024: Keith Law’s rankings, with Jackson Holliday at No. 1
GO DEEPER
The 10 MLB prospects who just missed Keith Law’s top 100 ranking: Abel, Jones and more
GO DEEPER
MLB 2024 farm system rankings: Keith Law ranks all 30 teams, Orioles are new No. 1
GO DEEPER
A list of every MLB team's top 20 prospects for 2024 by division
(Photo illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos (from left to right) Michael Busch — Matt York / Associated Press; Kyle Harrison — Ezra Shaw / Getty Images; Evan Carter — Mary DeCicco / MLB Photos / Getty Images)
