I spent last week in Arizona and attended the Breakout Games. The consensus in the industry seems to be that the Breakout Games were a huge success, and I completely agree — they’re a great idea, and I hope MLB continues them next year. I would love to see them spread out over a few more days. We had three scheduled on Friday and three on Saturday in Arizona, which meant we lost a whole slate to rain on Friday. It also made going to two games in one day difficult, with two of them starting around the same time on Saturday while the other started later but was an hour away. MLB Network also didn’t show the first Arizona game, the Reds/Rangers contest on Thursday, live, but instead delayed it till 1 a.m. Eastern, which seems like a missed opportunity since it was the defending World Champions’ prospects.
Advertisement
MLB definitely managed the rosters well, as they strongly encouraged teams to put as many top prospects as possible in these games, so virtually all of the position players you’d want to see were at least scheduled to play, unless they were still in big-league camp (Wyatt Langford, for example). I’d quibble with how the pitching unfolded; I’d rather see starter prospects stay on schedule and go 2-3 innings than get a new pitcher every three outs, as I worry about guys overthrowing in one-inning stints that are outside of their regular throwing schedules, but I’m nitpicking. Even just seeing three Breakout Games rather than the five I’d planned to see was both productive and fun, and I’ll build future spring training trips to Arizona around these games as long as they continue.
GO DEEPER
Scouting the Breakout Game between Reds and Rangers, other spring notes — Keith Law
Below are my notes from the weekend in Arizona.
Padres/Mariners prospect notes
Friday was a washout in Arizona, with rain canceling all three scheduled Breakout Games for that day, so I headed to the back fields in Peoria on Saturday to try to make up for some of what we lost in the postponed Padres-Mariners prospect game, followed by the Diamondbacks-Rockies prospect game later that afternoon at Salt River Fields.
Seattle took right-hander Logan Evans (No. 14 Mariners prospect) in the 12th round of the 2023 draft out of Pitt, and you could be forgiven if you missed it, as Evans had a 6.78 college ERA across two years at Pitt and two at Penn State, with a low strikeout rate and a ton of homers allowed. The Mariners took a flier on him, in part because he had a good delivery and at least didn’t walk that many, and they might have the steal of the draft. Pitching in an A-ball game against the Royals on Friday, Evans was 95-97 mph for three innings, showing both a two- and four-seamer, with five distinct pitches, including two different sliders, one with more tilt that had huge spin while the other was harder with more cutter-like shape. It’s a low-effort delivery for someone throwing this hard and he does indeed throw strikes. There’s nothing here to indicate he can’t start, and he’s got probably two out-pitches along with a fastball that really plays.
GO DEEPER
Seattle Mariners 2024 top 20 prospects: Colt Emerson, Cole Young lead the way
I finally saw shortstop Felnin Celesten (No. 5 Mariners prospect), the Mariners’ big international signing in 2023 who missed the entire Dominican Summer League season last year due to injury, and the good news is he doesn’t look like he’s missed a beat. He was particularly strong in the field, with good footwork and a quick, easy transfer for throws, so even though he’s still not running like he did before he signed, he looks like he’ll stay at short and might be a plus defender there. (He had some lower-body injuries last year, which cut into his speed, but maybe he’s just slower now that he’s filling out.) He’s a switch-hitter with an easier swing from the right side, although he’s got enough strength to make up for a little less bat speed right-handed, and from both sides he’s looking to do damage. He has yet to play in an actual regular-season game, so it’s very speculative, but I think he’s got a little more power projection than I’d said in the offseason, with less speed than advertised.
Advertisement
Right-hander Jeter Martinez (No. 17 Mariners prospect) threw an inning for the Mariners after Evans left and was 92-96 with a 55 or better (on the 20-80 scouting scale) changeup at 84-87, with more action at the lower end of the range, plus a fringy slider at 77-83 that backed up on him a little bit. It’s a very late, fast arm, which often points toward a relief future and is also correlated with struggling with breaking stuff.
The Padres were scheduled to throw their top two pitching prospects in the Breakout Game, so both right-hander Dylan Lesko and southpaw Robbie Snelling threw on Saturday instead. Snelling (No. 72 overall, No. 4 Padres prospect) was 91-92 with an above-average slider up to 84 and a fringy changeup that right-handed hitters did not mind seeing. Snelling still has a lot of effort to his delivery and a head-whack at release that isn’t a great sign for command, although he’s very online to the plate and in a good spot to field his position, making a nice play on a hard comebacker late in his outing.
GO DEEPER
San Diego Padres 2024 top 20 prospects: Ethan Salas, Jackson Merrill lead the way
Lesko (No. 35 overall, No. 3 Padres prospect) was nails, and looks just like the guy he was before he blew out his elbow in April 2022. He was 91-95 overall, 92-93 on the two-seamer, with an easy plus changeup and big, sharp spin on a two-plane curveball in the 73-78 range. His slider was his worst pitch, 82-85 and sweepy (not in a good way, I don’t know why we have made that term into a positive, it’s like teenager slang and yes I am yelling at that cloud why do you ask), a pitch I don’t think he’s going to need given the other three. Another scout said he’s seen Lesko up to 97, so it’s clear he got everything back after the Tommy John surgery, which isn’t the case for all pitchers.
I caught two at-bats from Leo De Vries, the Padres’ top international free agent signing from this January. He’s listed at 6-foot-2, 183, but looked maybe an inch shorter and 10 pounds stronger, in a good way. It’s a very solid swing, one that should produce hard contact with some swing-and-miss if he’s always swinging this hard, even with two strikes. He did look a little overmatched in two at-bats in the Low-A game, but he’s also just 17 1/2 years old with zero pro experience.
San Diego signed right-hander Cole Paplham as an undrafted free agent in 2022, and he finished his first full pro season with an inning in Double A. It’s a straight relief look but he was 95-97 with big tail on the two-seamer and an average slider, with a really fast, late arm and some head-whack at release. Right-hander Ryan Bergert (No. 14 Padres prospect) also pitched and was 93-94 with some arm-side run, showing four pitches but nothing better than a 50.
Advertisement
Notes on Diamondbacks/Rockies Breakout Game
The Diamondbacks-Rockies Breakout Game did take place, with the Rockies treating it more like a showcase by giving each pitcher an inning while Arizona gave their starter, Yu-Min Lin, a second inning of work. Lin (No. 83 overall, No. 5 Diamondbacks) was 88-92 with at least four distinct pitches, and I’m pretty sure I saw the screwball in there just once, at 80 with that hard break down to his arm side to contrast with his hard slurve at 83-85 with high spin and some tight downward break. He showed he can really pitch, setting hitters up with the two-seamer then going to the assortment of offspeed options (mostly the cutter and slider plus the one screwball) to get them out. He does have a weird first move in his delivery where he steps toward first base and then returns to the rubber, which made me ask the ontological question of whether it is possible to balk with nobody on. He may never throw harder than this and I can see that limiting his ceiling, but I’m bullish because of his offspeed weapons, control, and feel for pitching. Also, more guys should try throwing screwballs. I know there’s a strong belief that throwing a screwball is bad for your elbow, and that might even be true, but we also have pretty good evidence that throwing really hard is bad for your elbow and that hasn’t stopped anyone from pumping gas.
GO DEEPER
Arizona Diamondbacks 2024 top 20 prospects: Jordan Lawlar leads strong system
Chase Dollander (No. 75 overall, No. 2 Rockies prospect) threw an inning for the Rockies and left me wanting to see more. Their 2023 first-round pick out of Tennessee, Dollander was 94-96 and flashed a big, sharp slider at 85 mph — just throwing it once, with his other nine pitches all four-seamers with a little more run than ride. If that slider is indicative of what he’s going to throw this year, he’s going to zip up at least to Double A, as it looked much more like the slider he had as a sophomore when he was the best pitcher in Division I.
Infielder Adael Amador (No. 4 Rockies prospect) led off for the Rockies and batted four times — if you believed the scoreboard, he was in a permanent state of being on deck, even when the Rockies were in the field — making mostly soft contact while showing his patience and willingness to lay off stuff out of the zone. He did show he could get to velocity, connecting on fastballs at 97 and 100, but the contact quality was weak, with three of his four batted balls coming off the bat below 90. He had a soft liner to left while batting right-handed, then two weakly hit grounders from the left side along with one well-hit flyout to the center field track against a 97-mph fastball. He looked fine defensively at second base, which is his best chance to be a regular somewhere.
GO DEEPER
Colorado Rockies 2024 top 20 prospects: Sterlin Thompson, Chase Dollander lead the way
Seth Halvorsen, the Rockies’ 2023 seventh-rounder, was the most impressive guy in the game relative to what I knew about him before his appearance. He was 96-98 with a 55 changeup and a hard downward-breaking slider that was closer to average, and it all worked — his delivery’s much cleaner and more repeatable than I expected. I left him off my Rockies’ top 20, putting him in the ‘others of note’ section, but if this is what he’s going to look like pitching as a starter — even if he’s more 94-96 – he’s a top 10 prospect in the system.
The Diamondbacks’ lineup was definitely on the smaller side, with their fun-sized leadoff hitter Jorge Barrosa (No. 13 Dbacks prospect) one of three who at least appeared to be 5-9 or under. He can really go get it in center field, and he was the most impressive hitter for Arizona in the game, with a couple of hard-hit balls, including a double he pulled into the right field corner at 105 mph, and showed some ability to work the count. Jordan Lawlar (No. 4 overall, No. 1 Dbacks prospect) had just two at-bats, but the second one saw him fall behind 0-2, successfully challenge a third strike call, then work the count up to 3-2 before lining a double over the left fielder’s head off a 96-mph fastball. Gino Groover also had a couple of hits, turning on 97 from a right-hander to ground a single to the outfield.
An overturned strikeout becomes a double to left field. How about that?
Top-ranked @Dbacks prospect Jordan Lawlar (MLB No. 11)'s pivotal challenge jump-starts a two-run inning. pic.twitter.com/6JrwV2qec2
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 17, 2024
Yanquiel Fernandez (No. 82 overall, No. 3 Rockies prospect) had a pair of hard-hit balls, including a single to right off a 96-mph pitch and left his bat at 108, along with a hard-hit grounder to first base against a lefty. He had a better day than Sterlin Thompson (No. 70 overall, No. 1 Rockies prospect), who has the best swing in the system but who only managed a pop-up and a flyout to right. Catcher Drew Romo (No. 5 Rockies prospect) had a pair of bloop hits, turning one into a double because he read the play so well and never stopped running as he rounded first and the throw went home, although there’s something going on with his throws back to the pitcher.
There was more velocity on the mound, as has been the norm in these Breakout Games. Dbacks right-hander Connor Grammes has a ridiculously short arm action that’s lightning-quick but doesn’t seem to get any power from his lower half. Fully back now from Tommy John surgery, he was 96-97 with a plus slider at 84-87. Right-hander Jason Martinez sat at 100 in the last inning with a 55 slider at 87-90. Right-hander Yilber Diaz (No. 15 Dbacks prospect) was 96-97 with a big slurvy breaking ball at 80 mph. He’s been a starter in the minors but looks like a pure reliever between his high-effort delivery and below-average control.
Advertisement
On the Rockies’ side, Jaden Hill was 96-97 with an above-average changeup and below-average slider, and the fastball doesn’t play up to its velocity. Angel Chivilli was 93-96 with an average slider at 84-87 but had no command in his inning of work, struggling to repeat his long arm swing. Lefty Sean Sullivan (No. 11 Rockies prospect) was 88-90 with a decent changeup, but he’s a little more across his body now and looked like he’d put on some weight, and not the good kind.
Notes on Brewers/Royals Breakout Game
On Sunday, I caught the last Breakout Game in Arizona, as the Brewers’ prospects headed to Surprise to face off against the Royals’ prospects. Milwaukee started Jacob Misiorowski (No. 90 overall, No. 6 Brewers prospect), and he did what he usually does — throw very hard and miss the strike zone. He was 94-98 with a cutter at 89-92 and slurvy slider at 79-83, all of which were at least 55s. He hit two batters and walked three, including two on eight pitches to open the third inning, while striking out five of the 13 batters he faced and allowing zero hits. I love the arm, but this is such a rough delivery with no history of even average control that I think the Brewers should put him in the bullpen and try to develop him as their next closer/high-leverage reliever.
GO DEEPER
Brewers 2024 top 20 prospects: Jackson Chourio leads deep system
I’d seen Kansas City righty Will Klein earlier in the week on the back fields, but he was even better in the Breakout Game than he had been a few days earlier. Klein was 97-101 with a power curveball at 80-83 and slider at 88, with a good enough delivery to think he’ll improve his control to be able to handle high-leverage work. He had the best pure stuff of the Royals’ pitchers, although Chandler Champlain (No. 15 Royals prospect) was solid, working 93-96 with an average curve and slider, even throwing what appeared to be one changeup. He’s never had much of a platoon split despite the lack of a changeup, but he also needs to get something to plus to be more than a fifth starter.
GO DEEPER
Kansas City Royals 2024 top 20 prospects: Blake Mitchell, Ben Kudrna lead the way
Mason Barnett (No. 6 Royals prospect) started for Kansas City but he was just as wild as Misiorowski, hitting two batters and walking three without a strikeout among the 13 batters he faced, coming out without finishing his scheduled two innings. He was relieved by left-hander Noah Cameron, who was 93-94 with a pretty solid cutter at 88-90, a changeup he used aggressively to righties, and a curveball around 79-81. That’s better velocity than he showed last year, and the cutter appears to be a completely new pitch. He’s definitely someone to watch for the Royals, as he seemed like he might be just an org starter after he posted a 6.10 ERA in Double A last year with 14 homers allowed in 72 innings.
Kansas City third baseman Cayden Wallace (No. 9 Royals prospect, and can parents please stop putting random y’s in their kids’ names because I am old and it confuses me) was the only player with two hits, an infield single and a broken-bat single to left-center off 94, along with a five-pitch walk. Trevor Werner, a natural third baseman playing first in this game, smoked a home run off a 93-mph fastball from a right-hander. He wasn’t on my Royals top 20, as he didn’t hit well at all in three years at Texas A&M, but after the Royals took him in the seventh round last year he was very productive for a month in Low A. Gavin Cross (No. 5 Royals prospect) went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, whiffing multiple times on 94-95 in the zone.
Milwaukee’s Tyler Black (No. 44 overall, No. 3 Brewers prospect) played first base, as that’s probably his best shot for major-league playing time this year and he no longer has the arm strength for the left side of the infield; he smoked a line-drive the other way off a cutter from Cameron, booked it from the moment he left the box, and ended up on third base with a hustle triple. The next batter, Jackson Chourio (No. 2 overall, No. 1 Brewers prospect), got a 1-2 changeup up in the zone and punched a line-drive single over the shortstop to knock him in.
The Brewers’ relievers included right-hander Logan Henderson (No. 17 Brewers prospect), who was 93-95 and flashed a plus changeup with good deception but left his outing early with an oblique injury. He didn’t show a breaking ball, which has been his main question other than health. Right-hander Josh Knoth (No. 13 Brewers prospect) finished the game and took the loss after a wild pitch allowed the winning run to score, but he did work at 94-97 and showed four pitches, while the curveball was just average versus the 55 or better one he showed last spring before the Brewers drafted him.
More top prospect coverage
GO DEEPER
Top 100 MLB prospects 2024: Keith Law’s rankings, with Jackson Holliday at No. 1
GO DEEPER
The 10 MLB prospects who just missed Keith Law’s top 100 ranking: Abel, Jones and more
GO DEEPER
MLB 2024 farm system rankings: Keith Law ranks all 30 teams, Orioles are new No. 1
GO DEEPER
A list of every MLB team's top 20 prospects for 2024 by division
GO DEEPER
Bigger, faster, better: Explaining MLB's unprecedented wave of young stars
(Top photo of Chourio: Joe Camporeale / USA Today)
