Klawchat 2/20/24.

Starting at 1:30 pm ET. Subscribers to The Athletic can read my entire prospect rankings package, including the top 100 prospects, the ten guys who just missed, my farm system rankings, and my top 20 prospects & org reports for all 30 teams.

Keith Law: I started drifting to a different place. Klawchat.

Ben (MN): I’m traveling for work but have one free day in San Diego. Any food recommendations?
Keith Law: The Crack Shack, Juniper & Ivy, Bird Rock Coffee, The Mission.

Brett: FYI, Petty up to 99 in Reds camp today.  Good early sign but increases injury risk as well I suppose…the baseball gods giveth and taketh.  Thank you for all you do especially with the mental health side of things.  It’s so important to make people feel like it is OK to get help, that nothing is wrong with them.  I am in healthcare and have been getting mental health services since Covid in part because of your example.  My life is much better for it, thank you…
Keith Law: He just hasn’t held that velocity as a starter for two years now. I did have delivery concerns with him in HS when he was 97-100 or so, but he toned that down last year. And you’re welcome – I probably should be talking about that stuff even more.

Joe: The Dodgers gave up two players with some value for Trey Sweeney, so I was surprised that he didn’t get a mention in the LA write up.  Do you think they did the trade because they needed the roster spots, or do they see something you don’t?
Keith Law: Maybe they see something they can do with the swing, but I just don’t think he’s anything but an up-and-down guy. He would have made a lot of top 20s, just not the Dodgers’.

SamStead: Hi Keith! Do you think Brett Baty settles into an above-average regular at 3B? What’s his outlook? Thanks!
Keith Law: The bat will be. The glove is debatable but I would let him stay there for now.

Mike: What do you make of the Brewers trying Frelick out at 2B/3B? Is it a move because of a crowded OF or more of an indictment of their options in the infield?
Keith Law: Chourio’s got the contract, Mitchell can play center, Black could play center if you can live with the arm … I think this is about getting Frelick into the lineup.

Guest: Chances Jett Williams gets called up before the AS break? I think the kid is legit.
Keith Law: I’d say zero. He’s barely 20 and has 6 games above A-ball. Also they have this guy at shortstop, you may have heard of him…

Chris: Keith, you wrote that Wilyer Abreu might be a 4-WAR player if he sticks in Center. If he can’t handle Center and ends up in Right, what’s the equivalent of that? I assume that’s still a productive regular, just not a star?
Keith Law: Yep, spot on.

Richard: You rock Keith! Very much appreciate the effort you put into the prospect / org rankings…it’s the primary reason I have the Athletic each year.
Keith Law: Thank you! It’s exhausting but now it’s all on the site and I can turn the page to the draft.

Adam: Is Michael Harris better than you expected? If so what did you miss?
Keith Law: I don’t think so … I might have been light on the contact, as he’s not striking out as much as I’d feared given his mediocre pitch recognition.

Jason: when will the corporate welfare for stadiums end? now the dbacks want to hold phoenix hostage on a 26 year old stadium
Keith Law: When voters consistently tell these owners to fuck off – and tell their legislators the same – the corporate welfare will end. if your state rep/senator votes for one of these handouts, you vote against them.

Tom: I really enjoy your podcasts on the athletic! Are you doing more anytime soon?
Keith Law: Nothing imminent.

Preston: At what point will any of the Boras Four just tell him to get a deal done? I presume they are along for the ride but can’t imagine they would want to go too long, right?
Keith Law: They know the deal. Scott gets his guys paid in the end, but it can take a while. You choose him as your agent, you’re signing up for this.

Bobby B.: Thoughts on Puerto Rico? Obviously an older board game, but imo one of the greats
Keith Law: Agreed it’s one of the greats, looking forward to the revised edition some time this spring.

Troy: Was Robert Gasser anywhere near the Top 100?
Keith Law: He was not.

Morgan: Who are a few prospects you see shooting up the rankings for 2025?
Keith Law: For every team, I included a Sleeper prospect, who is someone not currently on the top 100 but who I predict will make the top 100 next offseason. I think I had 6-7 guys do that this year (and I promise I’m not juking the stats – I don’t put guys on the 100 just to make myself right!).

Garrett: I loved this line in your assessment of Elijah Green (while also being said this has to be said now): “We can’t draft and develop this type of player as an industry if MLB prevents teams from giving them the development challenges they need.”
Keith Law: People often ask what rule change I would make if I were Commissioner. It would be allowing teams to operate a short-season affiliate if they want to. I’m pretty confident 20+ teams would choose yes.
Keith Law: This chat is brought to you by Oreos. They didn’t sponsor it. I’m just eating Oreos right now.

Guest: So glad to have KLawchats back. Just passing along a note, that while you don’t write your lists for fantasy baseball, many of us subscribers do love to use them to advise our fantasy decisions. While I get the timing of releasing the lists post Super Bowl, many of us would get more value from them earlier prior to our early February drafts. Appreciate the work.
Keith Law: Thank you. That decision was made above my head.

Mike: Hi Klaw, tough 2023 for former Dbacks prospect Ryne Nelson. Do you think he can become a viable number 4ish starting pitcher still for them?
Keith Law: I do. Might give him a half year or more in long relief this year.

Alex: Have you seen the new Master and Margarita movie?  I haven’t yet, and the book has always struck me as kind of unfilmable.
Keith Law: A reader told me about it the other day but I haven’t seen anything about it otherwise, and I agree, it always seemed like it would lose way too much on the screen.

Holly: On the Nats’ writeup, no mention of Mason Denaburg.   Is he still a prospect at all?
Keith Law: He walked 49 guys in 36 innings in low A last year, mostly in relief. I imagine he’s a release candidate at this point.

Alex: Can’t say I was surprised by Atlanta’s ranking – as you said, they traded everybody. On the other hand, as an Atlanta fan, it seems to me that you’re *supposed* to trade your prospects to improve the major league roster. Are there any of Atlanta’s major moves that you would seriously question?
Keith Law: I think giving up Malloy for Joe Jimenez was an overpay. And I believe I said at the time that I wasn’t convinced Sean Murphy would be better than William Contreras, certainly not enough to justify trading everything they did. But overall, no, I think Anthopoulos has done an excellent job, including his big trades.

Tom: Can you give some detailed thoughts on the Red Sox royals Schreiber trade?
Keith Law: The David Sandlin prospect writeup is now in the Red Sox top 20. No-brainer trade for them.

RC: Two completely unrelated questions for you…
1) What level of panic would you have if you were Mike Elias regarding the rotation regarding Bradish and Means? Is it worth shelling out money for another starter or making another trade?
2) I’m considering a job offer in Newark, Delaware. How do you like living in the state? What would you recommend for food and activities for a second visit on home scouting?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t panic, but they still have more position players in AAA/majors than they can use and I would at least see what trading some combination of them – Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Westburg, etc. – might get back in a starter. More worried about Bradish.

As for Delaware, it’s great overall. Lots to do here, great little downtown in Wilmington with some fantastic restaurants (Bardea, Le Cavalier, La Fia, two food halls), two art-house cinemas, two venues for concerts and traveling theater, low cost of living for the mid-Atlantic. Public schools are underfunded, though, and there hasn’t been great appetite to remedy that. Check out Winterthur, Longwood Gardens (just over the line in PA), & the Nemours Estate.

Egan: What are you expectations for Brandon Barriera this year development wise? Future rotation arm?
Keith Law: Let’s see how the body looks. Had high upside in 2022, has supposedly shed most of the extra weight he put on last year, but when a guy lets himself go like that I want to see the commitment to his conditioning.

John Sterling: (on the Dominguez v Spencer Jones question) I know you avoid being influenced by other expert rankings, but I know you also do take in information from other analysts/experts. Help me understand why there seems to be some uncommon divergence about two high profile prospects in same org who both spent most of last summer in the Somerset Patriots outfield. Thanks.
Keith Law: I assume we’re valuing different things.

DH: Suppose Samuel Basallo were a solid average defensive 1B, and not a catcher. Where do you suppose he’d rank in top 100?
Keith Law: Middle, probably 40-60 range.

Adam D.: Obviously without naming names, have you ever found yourself gravitating away from a scouting source after too many reports that turned out to be mostly untrue?
Keith Law: Yes.

JW: Have contracts to pre-arb players started to turn in the direction that they aren’t actually good for teams? The news of the potential Alvarez extension got me thinking that the Mets would need to be getting so much value on the back end to give up the cheap early years. They way they are structured based on actual cash basically aligns with what these guys would be making anyway, so all the teams are actually getting is the ability to have the player for more prime years without having to commit to post prime years (the value of which we dont know yet), but the cost of that is giving up years where they are actually cheap (the value of which we do know). Am I over thinking this?
Keith Law: I don’t think the early year salaries in those deals are close to high enough to make these a negative for the teams. If they’re right, they’re getting like $30 million of production (or more) for $2 million.

Andrew: Anything in Elly’s rookie year that makes you concerned about him long-term? Is it all about contact with him?
Keith Law: Yes, primarily about contact. Could end up in CF rather than SS but I expect he’d be plus there.

Bobby: Who do you predict will win ROY in NL and AL?
Keith Law: I’ll do full predictions in late March when we see who’s actually getting the playing time. Just a stab right now, I’d say Caminero and Noelvi.

dallas: Do you believe there is a flaw in stockpiling middle infield prospects like the pirates and Cleveland have done over the years? It seems like (with PGH) especially all their minor leaguers have the same profile.
Keith Law: There’s no flaw in that specifically, but maybe there’s a flaw if they’re all 5’7″ and unlikely to stay at short?

Robert: Putting aside the economics of whether or not public financing of sports stadiums makes sense, what do you think of White Sox ownership asking the public for $1 billion to pay for a new stadium, when they are one of only two franchises who’ve never offered a $100M contract to a player?
Keith Law: I don’t see a connection between those two. The purpose of public subsidies for private enterprise is economic development, not helping the team win. The economic development doesn’t justify the subsidies, of course, but that’s a separate question.

DH: Did his first year performance decrease Volpe’s best-case ceiling for you?
Keith Law: No. He didn’t belong in the majors to start the year.

Pool: Who is the international prospect that will be stateside for the first time this season that you are most excited to get eyes on?
Keith Law: Felnin Celesten.

Morgan (NY): You buying into Stanton’s body transformation as a harbinger of athleticism and renewed success at the plate?
Keith Law: No, it’s a function of health, not conditioning.

James: It’s spring training. I’m in the worst shape of my life. Any thought as to why the Boras 4 hasn’t signed yet? Can the Cubs really go with PCA and Morel at 3B instead of Bellinger/Chapman and expect to contend?
Keith Law: Yes, they can expect to contend in that division. I have a feeling they end up re-signing Bellinger though.

James: Ever play Code Names? We’ve been playing it a lot lately, lots of fun.
Keith Law: Yes, solid party game. Not my favorite of the genre but I’ll always play it.

Marlins Fan: Marlins have a bunch of (very) young and raw 18/19 year old pitchers outside of Meyer/White like Juan De La Cruz, Walin Castillo, Karson Milbrandt, Julio Mendez, Lester Nin, Damelvi Tineo. Any of those that you like outside of De La Cruz who you ranked fairly high?
Keith Law: Milbrandt was up there too.

Guest: I assume Caleb Durbin and Tyler Hardman are nothing more than org players? The latter not even getting an NRI is a bad sign.
Keith Law: that’s how I view them.

Neal: The Phillies can’t possibly consider extending Bryce Harper can they?
Keith Law: I hope not, he’s tall enough as it is.

kevin: surprised to see Jake Gelof blurb about him just being a corner OF. Is 3B not possible any longer? thanks!
Keith Law: Don’t see him every sticking at third.

Bobby: You are higher on Cam Collier than most. I have him on my dynasty baseball team. Just curious, why should I stay optimistic with him despite a lackluster 2023. I know he’s obviously young, but what is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Middle-of-the-order bat ceiling. Started the year slow as he had a lot of adjustments to make, but improved substantially as the season went on – and was only 18, younger than some high school draftees last year.

Zak: What’s the next rule change you’d like to see implemented at the MLB level?
Keith Law: ABS is coming eventually, but in the meantime just raising the bottom of the strike zone slightly would probably get us a lot more balls hit into play.

Troy: Donaldson over Black last season. This season it doesn’t appear he’ll have a starting job to start the season. Does Black need more time in AAA? Seems odd the Brewers aren’t carving out a spot for him. Even if it’s super utility guy.
Keith Law: He can’t throw enough for third so I’m not sure what their intention is, with Frelick perhaps getting the nod at second.

Brent: Noah Schultz is an exciting prospect for the White Sox. Seems like the biggest concern for him is health. If he can pitch like he did for 120 plus innings instead of 20 something. Can he become the team’s top prospect next year? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes, but he ended the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement so I doubt they push his workload that much.

James: Was looking at the 2016 draft. Will Smith the only all star in the first 41 picks before round 2 which has three all stars and round 3 which also has three. Two best players (Burnes, Bieber) went in round four. Was that just an odd year? I feel like normally teams nail at least half the top ten picks
Keith Law: Yes, that year’s draft wasn’t great at the time and it’s been awful in hindsight. Moniak, Senzel, Ray, Puk, Pint, Collins, Groome … yeeeeesh.

gach zreinke: Thoughts and timetable on Dodgers’ Hyun-Seok Jang?
Keith Law: Hasn’t thrown a pitch yet. I imagine we’ll all see him in spring training.

Mike: Is Colson Montgomery a middle of the order hitter on a contending team?
Keith Law: That would be his absolute ceiling – if he gets to his peak hit/power and also stays healthy. He just did not look right last year even after he returned, which is why I had him outside the top 25.

Mike B: Great job as always with the prospect lists.  So I know you didn’t have time yet for a full write up of the O’s/Brewers trade. Do you think this was the O’s finally doing a good job of digging into their prospect depth to get a top mitch pitcher?  I thought it was a good trade for both despite Yankees fans saying the O’s gave up less than the Yanks were asked for!
Keith Law: Yes, I think it was a good trade for both sides.

Guest: Everything I read about Wilken makes him sound like.a legit bat. Just on O, is he a Guy?
Keith Law: I think so.

Matt: Assuming Franco never plays again, are the Rays off the hook paying him?
Keith Law: If he’s in prison or simply unable to secure a work visa, yes, they’re off the hook.

kevin: what was the biggest reason for cartaya’s down season and is it fixable?
Keith Law: I asked a lot of people that question and the consensus answer was “I don’t know.” If he was hurt enough to destroy his performance, no one seems to know about it. It wasn’t an obvious failing, like an inability to hit a high fastball. People who loved him a year ago were befuddled too. That’s concerning because if you don’t know what’s wrong, you don’t necessarily know what to do next. I would return him to AA to start the year, at least.

CVD: Are the Lerners actually keeping the Nationals, or is this just posturing like Angelos did with the Orioles?
Keith Law: I assume this is posturing.

Caleb: Have you played any of the Wingspan expansions?  I have the Euro expansion and love the new birds, but I’m afraid the Oceania expansion (with Nectar) will change the mechanics too much.
Keith Law: I have not, unfortunately.
Keith Law: My Wyrmspan review copy is on its way, though!

Guest: Did the Padres ruin Luis Torrens?
Keith Law: Taking him in the rule 5 draft may have ruined him.

Hoobastank: Trying to make sense of the Tigers big improvement in farm rankings. Would you credit it mostly to the difference between how Harris and Co handle player development compared to Avila? Anything specific in differences? Such a huge turnaround, in a years time, all from guys drafted from the previous regime. Has to be one of the quickest impacts a new FO has a had on existing talent on a farm, no?
Keith Law: Strong draft, some big steps forward from guys in the system thanks to new PD folks, and a lot of other teams sliding due to promotions or other factors. I do think the minors as a whole are down – the #5 team this year might have been #8-10 a year ago.

James: You put so much work into these rankings and the draft. Are there any cheap teams that aggregate your and other’s thoughts, especially with the draft, since it’s such a crap shoot? Or could your thoughts on someone like Owen Caissie be used for/against them in trade discussions?
Keith Law: I know teams that take my rankings, MLB’s, BA’s etc. for the draft and use them in their draft models. I always say that’s not the purpose of the rankings, but I can’t stop them from doing so.

Jay: Atlanta is stretching out Reynaldo Lopez in the Spring. Any chance he can stick as a starter?
Keith Law: He’s never had the arsenal or command to start. He can hold his velocity deep into games, but that’s never been enough for me to consider him a starter – I got a ton of grief for leaving him off my top 100 for that reason.

Shodai: Who would you rather have starting in CF in 2025- PCA or Cody Bellinger ignoring salary?
Keith Law: I’ll go on a limb here and say Bellinger.

Ryan: Assuming he stays healthy and remains a starting pitcher, how long will it take to build Reggie Crawford up until he is MLB ready?
Keith Law: Feels like it could be two more years in the minors, no? He barely pitched this past year coming off TJ and never pitched that much before.

Brian: Who are some former prospects who’ve faded that you anticipate a breakout for this year? Last year you called Leody Taveras and Cole Ragans. Alek Thomas? Brett Baty?
Keith Law: I’ll do the breakouts list in mid-March – I haven’t thought much about that piece yet.

Brian: Who was your biggest disappointment when doing the rankings? Was there one player going in you thought would have had a bigger impact in 2023 and would be a star that just didn’t materialize?
Keith Law: Cartaya was originally on the list in the 70s or so, but as I circulated it to sources & also considered him further I realized I had no argument to put him on the list except that he was on it last year.

James: Who would you have taken 1-1 in the last draft?
Keith Law: Crews or Langford. Not a pitcher.

Ryan: Your report on Jun-Seok Shim was really encouraging. Do you have any additional info or that you could share?
Keith Law: I don’t hold information back. It’s all in the articles.

Andrew: Cleveland traded Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers. Why’d they do that? And has Clev. turned into a sneaky bad FO? Caminero, Nolan Jones, and Yandy would look pretty good in that lineup.
Keith Law: Brito’s going to be good and I don’t think Jones has that kind of year if he’s not playing at altitude. I think they didn’t know what they had in Caminero and the Rays out-scouted them. (Cleveland has cut its scouting staff, and that may be hurting them.)

Adam D.: Love the sleeper note on Rayner Arias potentially making a big jump. Am I crazy to think that this time next year the Giants could have five top-100 players (Eldridge, Arias, Whisenhunt, Martin and Crawford)?
Keith Law: Seems really optimistic on the last two. Maybe one of them gets there, but both is a lot to ask.

Steve: Is there any hope left for Luis Patiño ?
Keith Law: I’d still take a flier on him.

James: Who has better chance of winning the pennant again? Dbacks or Rangers?
Keith Law: Rangers but if I were betting I’d bet the field instead.

James: Is Lawlar blocked? Is he better than Perdomo? Will Lawlar start at AAA?
Keith Law: Perdomo shouldn’t block Lawlar when they believe Lawlar is ready.

Jason: what is the ceiling with jackson chourio? given all the factors (his deal, etc) should he be on the MLB club opening day?
Keith Law: I would really rather they give him time in AAA, now with no pressure around a call-up since he’s getting paid regardless. I think he’s going to be a superstar – a top 10 player in MLB at his peak.

Brian: Do you ever discuss your sources with other prospect writers? I’m curious how secretive the world is/isn’t when you all know the same people (and most say they cross reference lists with scouts), and how that plays into the differential product of the lists.
Keith Law: Not names, necessarily, but I might say “the Mets told me” something when talking to Eric or Jonathan.

Red: What are your thoughts on the Fanatics jersey fiasco? Seems like everyone agrees that they are crap.
Keith Law: Not really my lane but they did look bad.

Chris: Keith – we just heard another sob story for a billionaire owner (this time out of Arizona) laying the groundwork for extending a hand out to taxpayers to fund a stadium deal that (i) isn’t necessary, and (ii) will NOT create any economic benefit for the community. It seems like a simple solution is for Congress to make the anti-trust exemption conditioned on no public financing for stadiums. For every senator that accepts money from wealthy owners that is impacted with the prospect of security a MLB franchise in her or his home state, there’s another that is impacted by a franchise leaving. Not necessary a question, but more of a commentary. /fin
Keith Law: You’ll never get this to happen, though. MLB lobbies Congress and there is no real opposing entity pushing money into DC like that.

James: Will Skenes debut this year?
Keith Law: I imagine so.

Bobby: Thoughts on Jung Hoo Lee? Probably harder to scout international guys but you would have more information than the average American fan has access to
Keith Law: I wrote about him and the signing here.

Blood on the Tracks: Chase Burns or Brody Breckt?
Keith Law: I saw Brecht Friday, think I’d lean Burns.

James: Was Gabe Kapler a good manager? I feel like the giants were always over performing
Keith Law: I think he was. He got fired for failing to overperform last year.

AnalyticsPlant: Klaw – your prospect work seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?
Keith Law: I am not contaminating the planet.

Dave: The Pirates handling of Henry Davis seems … odd? He struggled in right field with minimal experience at the position, which seemed to carry over to the plate. With Endy hurt, it looks like he would catch but is now fighting for a backup role behind Grandal. What would you do with him this season?
Keith Law: Catch him every day. I’d be surprised if he really was the backup behind Grandal – I haven’t heard/read anything about that, and Grandal was below replacement level last year.

Matt: I thought it was funny the 49ers didn’t know the rules of overtime. Imagine that happening in the 10th inning of Game 7 and the closer didn’t know the game would be over if he gave up a hit.
Keith Law: Same.

Aaron: The Oceania expansion mechanics updates are very nice and go a long way to balancing actions on the board. Egg spamming is not quite as viable
Keith Law: And Asia has a two-player mode I’d love to try.

Ryan: Speaking of Padres and Luis. Is Campusano just another example of catchers needing more time to develop?
Keith Law: I think so.

Gsteve27: I know u often remind the listeners/readers that baseball is hard but what do you think was the cause for Gavin Stones and Miguel Vargas disappointing season after having a lot of success in the minors? Are you still believing in Vargas as you are in Stone?
Keith Law: Read what I wrote about Stone in the top 100.

James: Hunter Goodman from the Rockies just a guy? Could he be a GUY?
Keith Law: He’s 1b only, maybe, and swings and misses way too often. I don’t see it.

James: Are you surprised more teams haven’t used the Braves strategy more of locking up young players to long deals early?
Keith Law: Oh I think a lot of them try.

James: Does the transfer portal influence the way you look at a player or not or are baseball evaluations mostly immune to that?
Ryan: What’s a reasonable MLB peak for Ethan Salas look like, assuming he gets past the inherent teenager catcher risk?
Keith Law: Transfer portal doesn’t affect player evaluations – I have no issue with players moving to another school for NIL $ or playing time or any other reason.
Keith Law: Salas looks like a monster, could be ++ defense with power and patience. We haven’t had a prospect this young with this performance since Harper.

Brian: Can we expect more Klawchats soon?
Keith Law: I plan to, travel permitting.

Caleb: Cards fan, and they have the #8 pick this summer.  I’m going to guess this year’s top 10 isn’t as loaded as last year’s, but how does it compare to an average draft?
Keith Law: Right now it looks below the norm because the high school hitting class is very weak.

Adam: Hey Keith. Thank you for all your work. It’s always a fun time when your lists come out. Have you ever thought about compiling a ranking of your sleepers that you do for each team? Would be interested in the their order of where you see them ranked against each other.
Keith Law: All 30 sleepers ranked? I had never considered that.

AJ: Vlad Jr. settling in as a .270, 30 HR guy would be a bummer after what he did in 2021. Do you give him a mulligan for the last 2 years? Or did he just have his career year early? Troy Glaus style
Keith Law: A two-year mulligan is a lot. Kind of stunned by the low BABIPs. Not like he doesn’t hit the ball hard. His actual stats were well below what  you’d expect from his batted-ball data, so there’s some reason to hope he’ll bounce back beyond just a .270/.340/.460 line.

Jay: Who would you take 1.1 in this year’s draft as of today?
Keith Law: The most honest answer is that I don’t have enough feel for these guys yet. If you really, really want a name, I think it’s Wetherholt, who also left last night’s game with a hamstring injury so I may have to wait a bit to see him.

Shodai: Last year there were a lot of negative opinions out on Miguel Amaya, did his MLB stint help answer any of those questions for him going forward? Also do you ever randomly wonder what Junior Lake is up to these days? #callback
Keith Law: Last year, I wrote this: “he could end up the Cubs’ catcher before the year is out as a 20-homer type with some patience and better defense than Willson Contreras offered.” Probably too high on the power, but I think the rest is going to turn out to be right.

Steven: Any thoughts on Jason Benneti moving to Detroit broadcast team?
Keith Law: He’s one of the best. Glad he found a good spot.

Ryan: Only two years for Crawford? That surprises me because like you said, he has barely pitched. Thanks for the work you do!
Keith Law: I imagine they’ll try to get him 15-20 starts this year for 60-80 innings, then bump him up some more in 2025, and in 2026 hope to get him to the majors – unless they want to make him a straight reliever before that.
Keith Law: Of course that assumes he performs well. Has the stuff, certainly.

Guest: When talking to people, why do they value prospects over actual MLB talent. One guy told me he likes Jackson Holliday over Bo Bichette…isn’t Bichette Holliday’s peak??
Keith Law: I think Holliday can be better than Bichette, but how I value the two would depend on the team. Are you trying to win in 2024? You’d rather have Bichette.
Keith Law: I think Holliday will be better than Bichette, to be clear.

David: What should the Red Sox starting OF be this year if you had your pick?
Keith Law: Abreu, Rafaela, Duran, with Yoshida DHing?

Richard: Excited that we get to see Yainer Diaz catch most days (so long Maldy!). What kind of output do you think is reasonable for him as an everyday guy?
Keith Law: .270/.300/.475, 20 homers or so?

Harold: Although it would be hard to gather the data to answer this definitively, what percentage of the time does a pitcher, such as Bradish, end up requiring TJ after a UCL sprain that they try to remedy through PRP?
Keith Law: I don’t know if anyone knows the answer to this, but that players try PRP because it’s not major surgery and in most aspects of life you pick the non-surgical option first before the surgical one.

J.P.: Thoughts on Dom Smith’s signing? Here I thought Busch was all set to play 1B for the Cubs, and now he’s as blocked as he was with the Dodgers, apparently.
Keith Law: The Cubs signed Smith to a minor-league deal. He’s not blocking Busch.

Zane: I feel like the Reds have a slew of talented young international prospects. Who is your favorite out of Carlos Jorge, Hector Rodriguez, Alfredo Duno, and Ricardo Cabrera?
Keith Law: That’s answered in the Reds top 20 – it’s the guy I ranked highest.

Sammy: Thoughts on Colt Keith this year? Will he be able to handle 2B?
Keith Law: I think his bat will play anywhere and second base might be a challenge for him, at least in the short term.
Keith Law: I know scouts who think he should just play first base and rake. I’m not there yet.

James: If you notice a player in another club is undervalued like the Rays did, how do you go after them without tipping the other team off?
Keith Law: Subtlety. It’s a negotiation – you don’t tip off the other side to what you really want, and you might ask for more (give us Brayan Rocchio!) and when they laugh, you say “oh okay fine we’ll take some rando off your DSL roster.”

Guest: Hey Keith, reading through the Rockies Top 20 right now and truly blown away by how bad they’ve been drafting in the first round. All of Veen, Montgomery and Hughes showing real signs of missing. This has been a long-running issue with the team, it feels like. What strikes you as the issue? Scouting, development, pure dumb luck?
Keith Law: Hughes got hurt – different than the other two, although Veen’s had injuries too. But I don’t see Hughes as a bust at all.

Sammy: Amed Rosario just signed with TB- what does that mean..
Keith Law: He’s about to have the best year of his career?

Woodsy: I, too, am traveling to for work, but going to Atlanta. Any food recommendations? Thanks, KLaw!
Keith Law: I haven’t had a regular dinner in Atlanta in some time, although I love Ponce City Market (Spiller Park for coffee) and Krog Street Market. A few of my ATL favorites have closed, including Empire State South and the Lawrence.

James: We are somehow even more divided politically that four years ago. Any chance a player wouldn’t sign with a TX/CA team because of their political beliefs?
Keith Law: Haven’t heard of that, although I can imagine someone not wanting to raise their daughters in Texas (or, if there were a team there, in Alabama).

Chris: Manfred seems pretty intelligent and self aware. But every time he opens his mouth when asked to comment on the A’s move to Las Vegas, he seems petty, dismissive, and completely out of touch, particularly when it comes to empathizing with Oakland fans. Is he that beholden to ownership where he can’t even seem to acknowledge reality?
Keith Law: I think Manfred doesn’t have an ‘inside voice,’ so to speak. He doesn’t soften the message or speak in platitudes when talking to the public – which on the one hand is refreshing, even though it’s also rather telling.

Matt: Even the mayor of Vegas thinks the A’s should go back to Oakland. Is Vegas a long term answer for a MLB team?
Keith Law: I do not think Las Vegas will ever be a good market for MLB. It doesn’t have the population/demographics for 81 home games, and climate change is only going to make it harder to play or live there. There are other markets with more favorable characteristics, including Nashville, Portland, and Austin.

Ty: what pitch data stats do you look at when compiling your lists?
Keith Law: Not to be glib, but everything I can get my hands on. I want to know everything I can, and then I try to work from the facts – data, scouting reports, my own observations – to the conclusion.

Guest: Should the Tigers have taken Jenkins?
Keith Law: They should have taken Langford, although that in no way is a knock on Clark (or Jenkins).

Ben (MN): Is there any trustable data on how much money MLB teams make per season? Reporters discuss the Twins receiving a lower payment from their TV deal this season as if the team would be operating at a “loss” by maintaining the same payroll as last year. I find it hard to believe that they are breaking even in a normal year and that any increased expenses would mean a loss. Wouldn’t a lower TV payment  but a similar payroll likely mean the team just makes less of a profit for this one year?
Keith Law: I do not believe any MLB team is actually operating at a loss. You can make a paper loss on your income statement but these businesses generate stupid amounts of cash.

Morgan: First time in Savannah and Charleston. 2 days each. What are some can’t miss things?
Keith Law: Was just in Charleston over the weekend. Finally ate at FIG, which was a bucket-list place for me. Best part was actually the sticky sorghum pudding dessert.

JRG: Thanks for all the writeups on prospects. There are a number of guys who seem to have all the tools, but just never can put it together. Over the course of your career, what was the best example of a guy that didn’t seem like he would put it together, but then everything finally clicked for him and he made the leap?
Keith Law: Josh Hamilton’s probably not the best answer, although his name was the first to come to mind. I’ll have to think about this one as I can’t find a really apt example.

ZAS: Do you expect Cleveland to be aggressive and try to get Deyvsion De Los Santos AB’s? I assume Manzardo will be forced to start the year in AAA although I feel like he’s ready.
Keith Law: I don’t think Deyvison is going to hit at all. He wasn’t even a top 20 guy for Arizona and wasn’t on my Guardians list. I really am not a fan.

Thai: Where in the top 100 would Roki Sasaki rank if he was eligible?
Keith Law: He’s not eligible and I haven’t given him anywhere near the consideration I gave all the guys I did put on the rankings (or just beyond it).

Leonard: Does Taj Bradley have enough effective pitches to solidify a spot in the TB rotation>
Keith Law: Yes.

Shodai: Speaking of Manfred and things that are bad for baseball, where would you put the odds of an industry shaking gambling scandal in the next 10 years of so? Based on other sports I’d say it’s a dead lock that some players are gonna get popped but I’m worried about something bigger.
Keith Law: 100% chance some player gets suspended for betting on games. Maybe 25% chance of a broader scandal. We have had a few scouts get caught up in gambling stuff, back in the early 2000s. The pervasive nature of sports betting now just makes it way more likely we have problems.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week but yes I do hope to do these more regularly again now that the top 100 is behind me. Thank you all for reading and for your questions. Stay safe!