Fantasy baseball draft prep: Keith Law answers our questions about Wyatt Langford, hidden prospect gems and more

Every year, as fantasy draft season begins, Keith Law gets a message from the fantasy department asking if we can pick his brain on some hot names and buzzy topics. He says yes every time. So get your highlighters out and prepare to take a deeper look at some names on your draft sheets as the spring tradition continues.

1. Wyatt Langford seems to be everyone’s fantasy darling this preseason — he’s your No. 6 prospect and is being taken in the top 90 in NFBC drafts this month. MLBPlayingTime is projecting him as Texas’ cleanup hitter. Do you remember an ascent this rapid in your time prospecting? And is it maybe a little too fast? Are there holes we’re not seeing outside of maybe questionable defense?

Keith: I’m a big, big Langford fan; I had him as the No. 1 prospect in last year’s draft class before the rather unfortunate injury he suffered, although Dylan Crews was also pretty worthy of the top spot. I do think the hype around Langford has become so much that he’s going to have a hard time living up to it. He’s a future superstar, but even future superstars can struggle in their first attempts to hit major-league pitching, and Langford has so little experience at any single stop in pro ball that he hasn’t had to face pitchers two or three times and go through the typical adjustments that happen when you’re in the same league for a couple of months. And the Rangers have depth in the outfield/DH, with Evan Carter already there, Justin Foscue at least ready to hit in the majors, Adolis obviously locked into a spot, and Leody Taveras worthy of a starting job. I thought his path was clearer when Josh Jung was likely to start the year on the IL, and any time there’s a surplus like that it makes it easier to send a rookie down if he struggles. Big-league pitchers are pretty good at finding your weaknesses, even if minor-league pitchers have not.

Ascents this fast aren’t that unusual. Nolan Schanuel already made the majors from last year’s draft. Zach Neto got to the majors inside of a year. Stephen Strasburg got there in just over a year. Ryan Zimmerman got to the majors in the same year when he was drafted; so did Rickie Weeks, but that one didn’t work out so well. I bet we see at least Langford, Crews, and Paul Skenes before this year’s All-Star Break.

2. Druw Jones went from 14 last year to 41 on your list this year. What do you need to see from him for a jump back up to the Top 15 or even Top 10? You noted some scouts dismissed him but we tend to be more on your side of “let’s cut the kid a little slack, he was hurt and everyone loved him a year ago.” How do you find that line where you have to decide how much stock to put in something you see?

Keith: Jones actually hit a little better at the end of the year, when he was finally healthy, but to your question I try to consider context and provide it to readers by explaining what might be affecting not just a player’s performance, but how he looked. In Jones’s case, he was definitely still limited by the shoulder to start the year, then suffered two more injuries along the way. Maybe I’m wrong and he’s just a bust, but that seemed awfully quick to give up on a kid who still offers 60+ defense and shows very easy power. (He didn’t look great in their Breakout game, in just two AB.)

3. Before our deep drafts, we go over old prospect lists (like 2016-2019ish) and look up some players who haven’t made the majors and have been forgotten (for lack of a better term) by the general fantasy (and real) baseball world. We saw Mickey Moniak fulfill a little of his promise recently. How often do you go back and look at your old lists and poke around to see what someone like that is up to?

Keith: I never really forget a player I liked, whether it’s because I hold out hope he’ll come around or am wracked with regret that I ranked him where I did. So I don’t have to go back and look through old lists — I’m often checking on guys like that, or I’ll be looking at stats for another player and catch a familiar name, for better or worse. Looking through my lists now, I’m mad I ranked Alex Reyes as high as I did. I killed that guy’s delivery, but everyone talked up the stuff (which was very, very good). It shouldn’t have surprised anyone that he got hurt as often as he did.

Follow-up: Is there anyone on your older lists who you still believe in? Any hidden gems who you really loved 4-5 years ago who everyone else has discarded but maybe you still see something in?

I went to my 2020 list, and man, that is a sad list of pitchers derailed by injuries — Forrest Whitley, Daniel Lynch, Spencer Howard, Casey Mize, AJ Puk, Brendan McKay. I do still believe in Dylan Carlson (#9, 2021). And Luis Campusano (#38, 2021) is a breakout candidate for this year, and so is CJ Abrams (#5, 2022).

Cristian Pache was in my top 10 twice and I like him to take a step forward this year after his work with Kevin Long — he’ll probably never sniff a .300 OBP but he has power and plays outstanding defense. Jazz Chisholm just should be better, but his approach went backwards last year. If Shane Baz’s stuff returns post-TJ, he still has #1-2 starter upside. Heliot Ramos can’t be this terrible, right? Maybe he just needs a change of scenery; I never loved him, but I thought he could be a 55. Same for Miguel Vargas, who seems to be out of favor in LA and isn’t hitting well this spring. He may also end up elsewhere but I would be shocked if he failed to hit at all. I was totally flummoxed by Robert Hassell’s implosion last year too; if nothing else, everyone thought he would hit. I dropped Andy Pages from my top 100 this year because I wasn’t sure if the shoulder surgery would affect him going forward, but that was a mistake. I saw him in Arizona and he is … unaffected, to put it mildly. I think the surgery made him angry.

4. I assume Yoshinobu Yamamoto would have been Top 5 if you put him in the ranks, but where would Shota Imanaga have landed (Note: There’s a great story on him here)?

Keith: I don’t rank any NPB or KBO veterans because those are major leagues — the best players there are better than anyone in AA/AAA here — and because those players are older, so they offer less projection but typically more value right now. Imanaga is 30, four years older than anyone on my top 100 (Michael Busch, now his teammate, was the oldest at 26). I do think he’s going to be an above-average starter for the Cubs this year.

5. I am with your instincts on Adael Amador in your “just missed” column, but I like how you say he was almost a shoo-in for the Top 100 until you kind of got dissuaded by talking to scouts. What was their issue? And what would you need to see this year to confirm your gut and push him into the Top 100 (or higher?)

Keith: It’s a lack of ceiling – his main tool seems to be his patience at the plate, which is a good start if you have some more upside in other areas. Scouts were nearly unanimous in saying he’s not staying at shortstop, particularly since he’s not a runner, and he doesn’t offer physical projection for future power. I think his upside is that of a soft regular at second, hitting 10-12 homers (at sea level) a year with a solid walk rate, but just a so-so batting average and not much extra value from his legs. I feel like he may be another “scouting the stat line” guy – if you see a 19-year-old infielder who walks more than he strikes out, you might think he’s got huge upside, but scouts don’t see the physical potential, and it sounds like even his batted-ball data and advanced defensive data aren’t promising either.

(Top photo: Ron Holman / Visalia, David Durochik/Diamond Images via Getty Images, Getty Images North America; photo of Heliot Ramos: Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images)