Klawchat, 10/6/16.

My Boston/Cleveland and Texas/Toronto ALDS previews are now up for Insiders.

Klaw: If I could buy my reasoning, I’d pay to lose. Klawchat.

Dave: Mariano Rivera pitched 3 innings in game 7 in 2003. I’m just sayin’.
Klaw: That idea, stretching out a normally one-inning reliever for nine outs, is so anathema to managers today I would be floored if anybody tried it. (Dave’s referring to the ALCS.) Maddon would be the only guy I could see doing that, since Chapman’s definitely capable of going more than three outs and is a free agent anyway so who cares.

Frank: Do you think what was referred to as “Catcher’s ERA” 10-20 years ago was an imperfect precursor to what we have more recently come to understand as the ways catchers impact results?
Klaw: It just had too much noise in it to be useful. But framing had to appear in there somewhere, right? If framing is real, it would mean pitchers’ ERAs by catcher would differ, and the problem with C-ERA is that the real effects were obscured by randomness.

Lyle: Given the current state of the Mariners COFs, it seems likely that Tyler O’Neill could be up as soon as the All-Star Break. Is there any reason to think that he could (or even should) break camp with the team, though? Muddle through in RF with some combo of Gamel/Smith/Heredia until then?
Klaw: No reason. I think he’d struggle with contact out of the gate anyway. He’s a solid prospect, but not a superstar.

MK: Mike Schur wrote a great piece on Mike Trout yesterday. Do you ever just shake your head at the people that are watching some Mantle/Griffey/Mays hybrid monster and not consider him to be the MVP? The guys career WAR is already higher than several hall of famers and hes only 25…Its a shame that i dont have the luxury to watch him more frequently.
Klaw: I work in an industry with a very mixed group of people – referring to the writers here – including a large subset of folks who just don’t want to change their thinking. Voting for Trout would invalidate years of believing it was one way, when it’s the other way.

Josh: Where does Bumgarner rank for you in the hypothetical “Pitcher (past and present) I would want starting for my team in a win or go home game.” ? Who would you place above him?
Klaw: Quite a few guys. I don’t think he’s any different in October than he is April-September. He’s great all the time, but he doesn’t have any special ability to pitch well in the postseason.

Tom V.: Thoughts on Ausmus being brought back for another year?
Klaw: A clear mistake. His misuse of young pitchers has been horrifying to watch. He’s just not good at the visible aspects of his job, and it’s hard to see how he can be so good at the invisible aspects that we could ignore the time he had Daniel Norris throw 50+ pitches in an inning.

Kevin W: What do you say to climate change deniers that sat stupid shit like it’s just weather? Any go to sites you use?
Klaw: You’re fighting way uphill with those twits. You could point out that if they don’t understand the difference between climate and weather, then they certainly shouldn’t be commenting on climate change.

ML: With the Falvey announcement made official on Monday, do you expect a complete overhaul of the scouting staff?
Klaw: My guess is player development gets overhauled, not amateur scouting. They also have no real dedicated pro scouting staff and I can only assume they establish one.

Carty: There’s been a lot of cooling on the idea of Eduardo Rodriguez becoming a 1/2 (which was the buzz for a while). What do you ultimately see for him going forward?
Klaw: I still think he gets there. He’s young, talented, a bit raw, raced through the minors and lost a lot of reps to injury (including pitching when he probably shouldn’t have). I’m very optimistic on him long-term.

Marty: No sketch comedy in the TV Book. What would you add if you could? Mr. Show for me all the way.
Klaw: The Muppet Show.

Dan: Am I stupid for being excited for the Wold Baseball Classic?
Klaw: Not at all. I enjoy parts of it. But I also don’t care if the U.S. wins; I’d kind of prefer that we don’t (hasn’t been a problem in the past!) because I think its purpose is more to grow the game globally than to promote it here. That said, stacking Team Israel or Italy with a bunch of Americans is silly. It’s not going to get the media coverage in the represented country if it’s not predominantly made up of players from there.

Frank: I believe you said a few weeks ago that you would not consider Happ for the Cy. Why not? Also, does Aaron Sanchez warrant a mention in the discussion?
Klaw: I wouldn’t consider Happ because he hasn’t been good enough.

Matt: Keith, I know this question deals with a lot of speculation, but if Atlanta can add a couple of starting pitchers either via FA or trade, is it plausible to think a winning record could happen next season? Thanks for answering.
Klaw: It does not seem plausible to me.

Santos: In a previous chat, you mentioned you take Escitalopram for anxiety/depression (and that it makes a significant difference), was that prescribed by a general practitioner? Did you bring up Escitalopram or did the doctor? I’d like to approach this subject with a medical professional but I don’t know where to start.
Klaw: Prescribed first by a GP. I’ve seen psychiatrists, psychiatric nurses, and other GPs since then and had scripts from each of them. I went in and discussed symptoms, and then the GP chose this drug and gave me a small xanax prescription because my anxiety was so bad I was having trouble sleeping. (This was shortly after my one huge panic attack in 2012, while driving on Staten Island … insert joke here.)

Archie: One thing that stands out about Bumgarner is how he is one of the most fierce competitors in our galaxy. As a scout, do you pay attention to the willingness of a kid to compete and the desire to win, or is that something that is hard to detect and shows up when the competition gets consistently better at the pro level?
Klaw: Nearly all MLB players are incredibly fierce competitors. It’s nonsense to say that Bumgarner is somehow different in that regard. If you’re not competitive, you don’t get this far without otherworldly talent, and most MLBers don’t quite have that latter thing.

Andrew: Read your Cleveland / Boston write-up. Couldn’t help but notice that the Red Sox were always referred to as the “Red Sox” and the Indians were always referred to as “Cleveland”. Thank you for doing that.
Klaw: Not an accident. I have not actually used Cleveland’s team nickname in my own writing in probably nine years. My editors have been very good about helping with that.

ML: The Twins are now on the clock! Everyone knows the Twins have had a difficult time developing pitchers. Do you have any idea what Twins fans should expect upcoming drafts to look like?
Klaw: No, not really. I can guess they’ll use the same Trackman/statcast-style data that other front offices have begun to use, including Cleveland’s. But I think until Falvey has more people in place below him I’m really just throwing ideas out there without any sound basis for them.

Tom: Last night an awful hitter was intentionally walked so the Giants could face the opposing pitcher instead. Remind me why the DH is bad again?
Klaw: You didn’t enjoy that bit of strategery?

James: Not sure how to word this. How do you feel about the Arizona management shake up? Your article probably did not alert the ownership of the problem unless they were hiding in a hole somewhere. However it was a very public way of outing bad decision making. I expect you feel bad for the guys but they made their choice of how to run the organization.
Klaw: It’s never personal; it was a legitimately newsworthy subject, that an MLB franchise was being run by people who were incapable of handling some fundamental aspects of their job, to the point that other MLB execs were commenting to me on how abysmal the situation was. They’re in a hole now that it will take them some time and creativity to get out of, from one of the game’s worst farm systems – I can’t see a top 100 prospect there anywhere – to a payroll that is nearly half committed to a good starter and a DH on a National League club. As for feeling bad, I’ve said before, I didn’t make any of those mistakes; I just organized them.

Harold: Do you like the Renteria choice by the White Sox?
Klaw: I wished he’d gotten more of a chance in his first gig, although obviously they went for the upgrade. But he also had some things he could have done better the first time around that he’ll have to improve now with this second chance. Everyone likes him as a person and a communicator, but on-field tactics, including stuff like defensive positioning and integrating the better info that comes from analytics, will be the key for him to be better the second time around.

Frank: Doesn’t the MVP question vis-a-vis Trout have to include a definition of what MVP means? Is Trout the best player alive? Yes. Did he have such a large impact on his team? Well, they still finished 2nd last in their division, so how much value could he have added? Was he valuable to MLB as a whole? Somewhat, although he would be more so in New York or Chicago, but should geography play into that? To me, an MVP has to be on a team that had a somewhat successful season, because then he provided value by lifting the team to a level it otherwise would not have achieved.
Klaw: He added a ton of value; they would have been unwatchable without him, probably the second-worst team in baseball, near 100 losses. Just because you don’t think there’s value in losing 88 games instead of 98 doesn’t mean that there isn’t.

John (Raleigh): Do you think it is possible for MiLB players to ever obtain collective bargaining rights? Separate or MLBPA offshoot. I know there are structural barriers to such a union, but my blood boils at the wage suppression tactics of MLB and it’s owners.
Klaw: Better question for someone who knows a little about labor law.

CB: Why do HOF voters say that they are waiting for the HoF to make a decision about steroid users? Clearly, they already have. When Pete Rose gambled, he was quickly banned for life by the HoF. Now, with steroids, no ban has been announced or even hinted at. De facto, the HoF has made clear that (1) Steroids are not as problematic as gambling, and (2) Steroids are not a disqualifier.
Klaw: And given Manfred’s comments on Ortiz, it’s pretty fucking clear that Bonds and Clemens belong in. We will forgive what we want to forgive.

Mark: When is the ’17 draft rankings coming?
Klaw: Soon, but I have other content I have to finish first (the NLDS stuff today) as well as some work on the book.

Mark: Do you have a budget at ESPN, as in if you want to hire someone do you have that freedom?
Klaw: No, and I’m not sure I want the responsibility of being a full-time manager on top of everything else I have to do.

Steve: “Hey let’s not give Trout the MVP award he deserves because Arte Moreno signed Pujols and Josh Hamilton! Makes sense! Mookie gets MVP for his crucial role in developing David Ortiz and acquiring Porcello and Price!”
Klaw: Exactly. The whole thing is stupid – it is a fabricated, selective definition of “value” that supports a preconceived notion.

James: To the 9% nationally who say you are voting for Gary Johnson – he doesn’t know who the leader of North Korea is or what is happening in Syria. Vote for someone with a chance to win.
Klaw: Or, take a look at the man’s actual platform, such as his plans for taxation, regulation, or dealing with climate change. Then if you still think he’s the right person for you, vote for him. But at least understand the man’s views, because in terms of economic and environmental policies he’s a lot closer to Trump’s platform than Clinton’s.

Bobby: Is there any grouping of words you hate more than “I know its a small sample size BUT…”? Shouldn’t everybody know by now that a SSS by definition is not indicative of a significant change?
Klaw: It’s not proof of a significant change – if the sample is too small we can’t tell if the change is significant or not. Over the years I’ve started to ignore more of these questions. I got at least a half-dozen on Sandy Fucking Leon this summer. Really?

J.P.: Per Nick Cafardo – “Bryan Minniti, Mike Bell, Ray Montgomery, Peter Woodfork and Kim Ng all in the running for D’Backs GM job” – who would you pick?
Klaw: Those are legitimately good names, and I know four of them well and one of them a little bit. I’m not going to go any farther than that until they make a hire.

Andy: Ubaldo Jimenez has been in the top 10 in his league in walks every year in the last 9. He also has been known to just lose a ball like in a wild pitch or HBP. Please explain to people that IBB Encarnacion is a bad idea.
Klaw: And the guy on deck, Jose Bautista, is good for 100 walks every full season. It was a terrible idea.

addoeh: Charleston, SC good choice for Top Chef? With so many good food towns, I would have preferred a road trip through the South, like last year in California.
Klaw: Yes, it’s a great food town, but I have to think they’ll branch out a little given the number of episodes.

Mark: Would you rather have Buddy Reed or Bryan Reynolds in your system?
Klaw: I rated Reynolds about forty spots higher on draft day and I wouldn’t change that at all. Reed can’t hit.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you have a go-to carrot soup recipe? I have a newfound affinity for it. I’ve tried about 4 different recipes with each being really different. Latest one was the ginger carrot soup from Boma at WDW.
Klaw: The one in Hugh Acheson’s The Broad Fork.

Alex: What is your opinion of starting rotations having RHP and LHP? Does it matter? Do you think the braves need to add a LH starter?
Klaw: I think it matters more in the postseason than the regular season.

Tom: Kris Bryant had a 7.7 WAR. The Cubs finished 17.5 games in first place. Obviously, the Cubs didn’t need Bryant to finish in first place. (I tried to make this sound as dumb as possible)
Klaw: Yep. When you create artificial rules around what constitutes value, you end up with these paradoxes.

Cody: I’ve always argued this with people from the devil’s advocate standpoint, but would love to hear your opinion. I constantly hear fans across baseball complain about how their ownership is “cheap” and doesn’t want to spend the money necessary to win. I’ve heard for years as a Pirates fan, and from other fanbases. I’ve always been skeptical of those kinds of statements because in reality, none of these people truly know what the books look like. I happen to think that for some of these owners, their teams are not the profit centers people paint them to be and are more doing it because it’s cool and as a way of civic pride. Where do you stand on this? Do you think that teams are actually not making the margins people imagine or the other way around?
Klaw: I think most teams are swimming in cash, but it’s their right to turn a profit. I don’t like when owners cry poverty and ask for government handouts, but I haven’t criticized any owners for choosing to take home profits rather than spending it on the payroll. (I would criticize owners for spending too little on scouts’ salaries, or not paying interns, or for the joke wages all teams pay minor leaguers, though. Those are drops in the bucket.)

Charlie: Thoughts on Cody Bellinger? Would you comp him to say, a Brandon Belt?
Klaw: I don’t like comps, but I will say on Bellinger that his year in 2016 was unexpected and kind of remarkable: He cut his strikeouts without losing all his power. That’s a huge adjustment for any kid, especially one on the young side, and I think players who make adjustments like that at young ages are marked for stardom.

JJ: How many ABs for a hitter against a specific pitcher before it’s no longer SSS, and actually significant?
Klaw: There is no such number. Just ignore them. Players change and by the time you got the hundred or more ABs you might need they wouldn’t be the same players anymore.

Joe: Could Trey Mancini have an impact for the Orioles next year? He looked okay in the few at bats he had this year.
Klaw: Don’t see it. Bench guy for me.

Ryan: Say tomorrow that baseball loses their anti-trust exemption… would there really be any negative setback for the sport?
Klaw: No but you would see some large structural changes. Probably first would be Oakland and/or Tampa Bay ownership looking at moving. I think – could be wrong on this – that territorial rights would go away in such a scenario so the A’s could just move to San Jose.

Bryan: (1/2) Klaw, long time reader. Was hoping you might have some helpful resources you can direct me to, just to cope with a situation that has recently thrown our whole family for a loop. Long story short: my wife (mid-30’s) recently revealed that she was abused as a child, by her sister’s husband (currently mid-40’s). No one knew it, not even me. She held it in for nearly 25 years. Of course, the man denies it and her sister has chosen to stay with him. We have very good reason to believe he is physically abusive (she has called the police on him before). As a result of all this, her sister has basically been isolated from the rest of our family, as her decision to stay with him is being seen as a tacit approval of his behavior. But I think the true reason she stays is because she is afraid of him, and for good reason. I feel like there is nothing we can do to this man, practically speaking.
Klaw: Part one… stay with me …

Bryan: (2/2) And part of me feels bad for shunning my sister in-law, knowing she is in a bad situation. But what else are we to do? We are seeking counseling, but other than that I can’t see of any other way to proceed, other than keeping our distance from her (we have children too, FWIW).
Klaw: I would suggest you contact RAINN, or perhaps call the national sexual assault hotline 800-656-4673, to ask for advice. I would shun your sister-in-law too if she can’t accept that her husband is abusive and won’t try to leave the marriage. I hope your wife is getting help through therapy; abuse survivors are at high risk for PTSD too.

John: Thoughts on Taylor Trammell and Mickey Moniak? Do they seem pretty similar to you in terms of value and/or potential?
Klaw: Totally different. Moniak’s a polished kid who can already hit quite a bit but doesn’t have a huge ceiling because he probably won’t get past 50-55 power. Trammell is less polished – not crude by any means – but has more upside as a power/speed type with more athleticism. IIRC he was a pretty high-contact guy in HS, though, so don’t classify him as just one another Georgia prep tools goof.

Ben: The Leopard by Giuseppe di Lampedusa is one of my favorite novels, but one of only a few Italian novels I’ve read. Any suggestions for similar writers/novels?
Klaw: I liked the two books I read by Alessandro Piperno – Persecution and the Worst Intentions.

JC: Looking forward, but if Heyward was a FA this year & signed an identical contract to what he has remaining, would you be OK with it?
Klaw: It would be excessive; he probably wouldn’t get that on the open market.

Joe: Could you ask your wife to update her blog (linked at the top). Her writing is good, but it hasn’t been updated in three years.
Klaw: Will do. Can’t promise anything though. She’s had a rough year.

JL: Having a good friend over for the weekend and want to make them a really nice dinner. I’ve drastically improved my cooking the past few years but said friend is vegetarian where the staple of most of my tried and true dishes are meat-based. Anything you’d recommend for a vegetarian based meal? Thanks!
Klaw: If dairy is OK, that’s what I would probably think of as the center of the meal – a souffle, a baked pasta dish, a frittata (egg and cheese). And lots of vegetables; that’s how I’m trying to cook now anyway, vegetables first, protein second.

Darryl: Will Senzel be the full time 3B at some point next season?
Klaw: Maybe by August? That’s not a crazy thought, given how fast Schwarber, Conforto, Bregman, and Benintendi all got there. He’s not quite as high-ceiling as those guys but I think he’s in their class as a hitter.

Andrew: If writers aren’t going to put Trout on the top of their MVP ballots because he’s not on a playoff team, by that logic shouldn’t they leave him off altogether? I mean, if they aren’t going to vote him #1, why would they vote him #2 ahead of Donaldson?
Klaw: To quote a certain gerbil, they don’t have the balls.

Jim: Hi Keith, do you like the 1 game Wild Card? I feel as if a three game series would be better and more fair. 1 game just seems so un baseball, even though I do love the instant drama.
Klaw: I prefer that to a three-game series where other teams are off for a week … and if you want three games, why not five? or seven? We’re going to have to accept some unfairness in any playoff system. Let’s at least get the fun aspect of instant elimination and all of us on twitter talking about the same game.

Frank: “I have better things to do.” Dumbest answer to an exit interview ever, a true indication he wasn’t qualified for the job or both?
Klaw: I’ll go with both. The man was simply overmatched by the requirements of the job. He had no relevant experience, had been out of the team side for 14 years, and was not forward-thinking in the least. But at least the Dbacks managed to employ a bunch of his – er, his wife’s – clients, so he’s still going to get paid by them!

Ryan: I know you hate this topic, but Tim Tebow is going to the AFL… on a scale of ‘vastly overmatched’ to ‘why is this dude even here?!’ how will he do?
Klaw: We know why he’s there, but I expect him to be vastly overmatched.

JJ: So, if the Diamondbacks are in that big a hole (and I agree with that assessment), should they actively try to deal Goldschmidt this off-season to speed up the rebuilding? He’s already 29 years old, but I could definitely see an AL team like the Red Sox or Yankees being very interested in him as a 1B/DH, and they would have the minor leaguers to deal.
Klaw: That would be the smartest strategy for speeding up a rebuild, but I would imagine ownership objecting to the team trading its best and I think most popular player.

Nick: With Moniak having limited power potential, who would you have chosen #1 in the draft Rutherford or Moniak? They seem to be similar players with Rutherford having a higher power ceiling.
Klaw: I think I ended up with Moniak one slot above Rutherford on my rankings, but I liked both guys a ton and either would have been a good choice. I thought both were top five talents in the class.

Scooter: The “I have better things to do” comment was taken massively out of context… everyone go read the transcript or watch the video please
Klaw: I did. And it wasn’t. He was relieved that the job was over, and said he had better things to do.

Mike: Re: Shunning – I think you want to shun because it seems like she’s protecting an abuser, but not because she can’t accept that he’s an abuser or won’t leave the marriage. At some point, she may need help getting out of that relationship. And the original poster and OP’s wife may want to be available to support that.
Klaw: I agree with that; I think the shunning is self-protection, too. The victim likely wants no contact with her abuser, and since Bryan has mentioned having kids, they shouldn’t want those kids anywhere near the abuser either. But to your point, we all have an obligation to help someone escape an abusive relationship if we are asked.

Anonymous: Highly recommend John O’Hara “Stories”that just came out. Fitzgerald & John O’Hara are up there on my favorite authors, can you suggest anyone stylistically like them?
Klaw: Thanks, I do love Appointment in Samarra. Some Graham Greene novels (not the Catholic ones) remind me of those two. Hangover Square is a bit in that vein, but darker. No one can really touch FSF for prose style in my view, though.

Henry: Keith, if you were named the MLB commissioner today, what are the first two or three things you would do to improve the game/system?
Klaw: The whole july 2 free agent system is broken and needs an overhaul. I’d sever free agency from the draft, at least so that you don’t lose a pick by signing a free agent. I’d pay minor leaguers a reasonable wage in exchange for an agreement not to sue. I’d resolve the Oakland stadium situation any way possible – probably by relocation, but whatever it is, they need a new home. And I think Manfred is already doing this, but I’d try to normalize MLB’s relations with Cuban baseball as the US normalizes relations with the Cuban government, so we can smooth the flow of players from Cuba to MLB and perhaps allow US players to go play there as well.

Alex: Manfred said he was open to changing the September call up rule. Can this happen for next season and what do you think is a reasonable fix to the current situation?
Klaw: Limiting the number of active players for any specific game would be a good start. The goal should be to make September baseball look like July baseball, not to constrain it to the point where it becomes a problem for, say, a 15-inning game.

JR: Is TJ Riveria an everyday MLB player? If you were the Mets, would you pencil him in as your everyday 2B next year, or look to upgrade (i.e., re-sign Walker?)
Klaw: No, barely a bench option. I might try to re-sign Walker for a year, because I’m not sure about Cecchini’s bat being good enough for 2b right now (and his throwing problems got worse this year, to the point where I don’t think he’s a shortstop).

Levi: If no Goldschmidt trade, perhaps Pollock?
Klaw: It would make sense. I also think Drury could start for someone, but not Arizona if Goldy is still there. They have pieces. They just need a different mind in charge. It’s just not that bad a roster.

Lucas: have you ever been to an “after hours” event at Magic Kingdom, i.e. Christmas party or Halloween Party. Im taking my 11 year old and 8 year old in November and wondering if it worth the extra $$
Klaw: I haven’t, because they’re expensive and being a cast member doesn’t get me any special privileges for those parties.

Andrew: Why did Eppler deal Santiago for Nolasco/Meyer? If I recall correctly, Santiago’s a free agent next year and they could’ve easily had gotten a comp pick out of him which has to have higher value than Alex Meyer at this point.
Klaw: They must believe that Meyer has untapped potential, although I think he’s far more likely to end up a reliever given his age and lack of progress.

Nick: If the gap between Moniak and Rutherford is so close, why were they drafted 17 spots away from each other? All signability concerns?
Klaw: All signability concerns. Rutherford was seen as a tough sign because he would have been sophomore-eligible out of college (2018 draft).

Nick: In regards to the Magic Kingdom question it is very much worth it.
Klaw: There you go. Thanks for the help.

Klaw: That’s all for this week – I have more writing to do and some errands that have to happen before my daughter gets home from school. Thank you all as always for your questions and for reading.