Klawchat 7/16/21.

Starting at 3 pm ET. My team-by-team draft recaps are now up for subscribers to The Athletic:
• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East
• NL Central
• NL West

Keith Law: D4 damage with the ill behavior. Klawchat.

Debbie: What kind of offensive ceiling does Francisco Alvarez possess? Did his Future Game BP change your raw power grade on him?
Keith Law: I think it’s 70 power, but no, I didn’t change anything off the Futures Game look. I’d just seen him two weeks earlier in regular games anyway.

Carl: Can Cole Winn be a mid-rotation starter? Despite the home run during the Futures Game, he looked impressive.
Keith Law: He did look impressive and that’s what I think he is.

mike sixel: Buxton: traded in the next 12 months, or signed to stay in MN? How about Berrios?
Keith Law: I’d guess they sign Buxton and trade Berrios. Buxton might give them some discount given how often he’s been hurt. I can’t see them going 5 years on Berrios, but he could get that in free agency.

Joel: Hi, Keith. Thanks for the fantastic draft coverage throughout the past three months. If you were given the authority to make unilateral changes to improve the draft, what changes would you make?
Keith Law: Make picks tradeable, first and foremost. I’d also consider a lottery for the top picks in the draft, or something to deter any thought of teams tanking (although I doubt anyone is explicitly tanking for draft position).

JJ: Are Jarren Duran’s home/road splits a concern?  The new ballpark in Worcester seems to be a hitter’s park.
Keith Law: It is a hitter’s park – it’s on a hill, right? – but his power is real.

Robert: 20 pitchers! It’s concerning that despite going pitching heavy the last few years they still felt the need to do this.
Keith Law: It’s a gimmick, I think. But I like what they did up top.

David: Any idea what’s wrong with Blake Snell? He’s denied injury but has looked utterly lost on the mound this year.
Keith Law: I’m assuming it’s an injury of some sort.

Nacho: Thoughts on Brennan Davis? Futures game aside, he’s seems to be making adjustments and is crushing AA at a young age. Could he be a top 25 prospect by year-end?
Keith Law: He’s top 50 now, at least. I’m a fan.

Jon G: The Cubs used their first two picks on day 3 on preps that publicly said no within a day. Is this necessarily a sign of bad process within the draft room?
Keith Law: No, those picks are usually throwaways, or just senior signs to fill rosters.
Keith Law: You take those HS kids on the off chance that they come to their senses change their minds before heading to college.

Nils: What exactly makes a pitcher “home run prone”?  Hear that as a knock on some prospects, but is that a trait that is fixable?
Keith Law: Usually it’s a fastball thing – their fastballs lack life or movement, and if they get too much of the heart of the zone, hitters hit them. Far.

Himself: When a team like the pirates are able to draft 4 elite guys like they did, are they concerned that they’ll be available at each pick or fairly certain because of the relative cost and bonus pool management for other clubs?
Keith Law: Those teams have negotiated with those players’ advisers to come to verbal agreements – if your player is there, we will take him and pay him $X – and the advisers will then try to deter other teams from taking those players.
Keith Law: There are no guarantees, but that’s the tacit agreement that holds up the system.

Shaughn B: Hey Keith, read the recaps – thanks for those! Were there any team drafts you thought were more in line with the approach you would’ve taken? Any that went way against the grain of an approach you agree with?
Keith Law: The Phillies went heavy on high school pitching, which you know I don’t favor, especially not in the first round. I think the Reds had my favorite draft and the one that most mirrored my philosophy.

Nate: It’s been a very disappointing season to be a Twins fan, but one of the pleasant surprises has been seeing Jose Miranda’s improvement. How much has his outlook changed from a year ago? Can he be an everyday third baseman?
Keith Law: I loved him in his draft year and the Twins, to their credit, have always been steadfast in their (outward) belief that he’d hit. He could be a regular, yes.

John: Aside from the feature ASG events themselves, how was your experience in Denver this week?
Keith Law: Great! Good city for this event. Loved that I could walk everywhere. Had amazing coffee at Little Owl and grade 80 sushi at Sushi Den. The light rail is great too. Not sure where the city put all the oxygen, though.

Eric: With the performance of Tork, Greene & Dingler, not to mention the emergence of Baddoo, is it fair to say Detroit’s rebuild all of a sudden looks much more promising than one might have thought before the season?
Keith Law: Yes, I think so. Manning’s regression hurts a little.

John: The Red Sox seem to think their history with training hitters means they can fix the holes in Fabian’s swing.  Any reason to believe that?
Keith Law: Didn’t work with Dalbec. It’s not a “hole” per se but a complete and utter inability to make an adjustment. He couldn’t hit sliders when the season started, and he couldn’t hit them when the season ended.

Sandy Alderson: Is Rocker’s ETA 2022?
Keith Law: Maybe end of 2022, but I’d rather take it a little slower with him than I would with Leiter.

John: What’s the youngest player that you’ve ever scouted?
Keith Law: I saw Bryce Harper at 15. I was in the DR once, primarily to see Cuban free agent Eddy Julio Martinez, and saw some 14-year-olds. Stir Candelario, who is now in the Rays’ system, was one of them.

Bill S.: Keith – great work on the draft!  Your work is very much appreciated.  Regarding Henry Davis – he impressed me when I listened to him on your podcast this spring.  He seems very confident and cerebral, yet humble.  Seemed to have strong leadership qualities.  When evaluating a prospect for the draft, how much stock do teams put in those characteristics?  Thank you.
Keith Law: Some teams weigh that stuff extremely heavily, some don’t care at all. I would consider this kind of makeup – he made it very clear he’s a student of the game and determined to improve even in small areas. I wouldn’t be as concerned with leadership skills; not every player has to be a leader and I think in general teams that do weigh that characteristic end up putting too much weight on it because it is impossible to objectively measure.

Reb Wiseau: Will Marcelo Mayer need appreciably more money over slot to sign with the Sox?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine why.

Pat: Did the Cubs just get Bryce Ball Player, or Bryce Broken Prospect?
Keith Law: He’s flawed, but has real power. The lost year really kills players like him.

Cole: As an Angels fan, I was pretty upset with Bachman over Rocker at 9 when it first happened, but the more I look into Bachman, the more intrigued I am. What are your thoughts on that specific decision?
Keith Law: Rocker is the better prospect, but by a small margin.
Keith Law: He’s also never missed a start, as far as I know, and Bachman did.

Sean: Thoughts on detmers at the futures game?  When will he be ready for the major league rotation?
Keith Law: He was in my Futures Game writeup. I would absolutely call him up this year.

Hanyo: I know it’s early for the 2022 draft, but since Conor Prielipp is most likely out for the entire 2022 season, how would you expect teams to look at him draft wise barring any setbacks? 1st round? Or is it more likely he comes back for the 2023 season to prove himself and that he’s healthy?
Keith Law: Teams really have no looks at him in college – 4 starts last year, 3 abbreviated ones this year, and then he blew out. The timing was terrible for him … but if ever there was a prospect who should consider the Draft League, it’s him. He’d be 13-14 months off surgery then. He could go to the Cape too, as long as he’s healthy.

Schmo: Do you see the draft being longer than 20 rounds in the future? I don’t see a reason for it, considering the cut short season leagues
Keith Law: Nope. It might end up shorter.

Kevin: how high as a newly drafted prospect debuted on your top 100 prospects? Has one every been a top 10 prospect?
Keith Law: Yes, almost certain that’s happened with Harper & Strasburg. I’m looking Harper up now…
Keith Law: Harper was #2 going into 2011, after Trout. That’s the record.

JP: The Braves have had many pitching prospects throughout their rebuild and recent success, with Muller maybe the last of the group from the rebuild years. Is Fried, Anderson and some of Soroka about right for what should have been expected from that group? It feels 1-2 players too low.
Keith Law: I hoped they’d get more out of that group – Toussaint, Wright, Wilson, Newcomb – but the clock hasn’t run out on them all, either. Maybe one or more of those guys find success elsewhere.

Schmo: What are your thoughts on a strategy about drafting guys after the 10th round? Think teams should go for a mix of unsignable, fringe signable, and signable guys, go for mostly fringe signable guys since it won’t lose any bonus money to not sign them, or go for mostly signable guys?
Keith Law: In the 11th and 12th rounds you should just take the best guys still on the board and offer them all your extra pool money, if you have any. Or, if they change their minds at the last second, you hold their rights.
Keith Law: After that just take the best guys you can for the limit and for whom you have playing time.

Joel: Keith, there’s been a lot of reporting about what a hard worker Henry Davis is, with a true drive to get better and maximize his talent. Honestly, I’ve always been somewhat skeptical about these accounts because they tend to feed into the traditional sports narrative of hard-working white guys vs. people of color relying on their natural ability. When you were working for the Blue Jays did you try to assess intangibles like attitude and, if so, how did you do it?
Keith Law: It’s more than that – players of color are far too often assumed to not work hard. The right way to interpret those data would be to gather all of it from your scouts, and then check to see if they have any implicit biases and adjust those makeup grades accordingly, That is, if Johnny Scout always has Black players’ makeup grades 5 points below those of white players, you adjust so they’re on the same scale. (And then maybe show Johnny the data and explain what’s going on.)

Sam: Where does Mayer fit into Boston’s rankings, for you? New #1?
Keith Law: I’m going to write a piece for next week on which teams just drafted their new #1 prospects. It’s fewer than usual, I think, in part because you had teams drafting high who already have elite prospects in their systems (Detroit, Baltimore).

TorkelsonMVP2028: If you were the Tigers GM, who would you have taken at 3? I feel like the selection of Jobe is textbook base rate neglect. The opportunity cost just isn’t there. Mayer or Kahlil Watson were my preferences.
Keith Law: Yep, Mayer would have been my pick.

Warbiscuit: I know you’re not a fan of comparing your lists compared to others, but MLB.com and BA and a few others had Ryan Bliss ranked around the 60’s-70’s range while you had him ranked 38 in your list and mocked him as the 28 pick. Do you think he will stick at SS(where others don’t think he will) or do you really believe in the bat? I know you liked he proved himself in the SEC.
Keith Law: I think he stays at shortstop, enough of a chance that it justified the higher ranking. The mocks were based on teams showing interest, though, not my personal opinion.

Preston: My 9-year-old just finished first year of kid pitch and got to play some catcher. But I’m burying the lede. He’s lefthanded! Are you coming across any LH catchers? And what’s the rationale against it from a strategic standpoint? There are so many RH hitters it would disrupt throwing out baserunners, though nobody steals anymore …
Keith Law: If your kid is LH and throws hard at all, he’s going to end up on the mound.

Nathan: There are some players that have been openly against vaccines (Simmons comes to mind).  Do you think less of them as a result?
Keith Law: I think less of them as people, not as players.

Mac: its fairly obvious money is the biggest factor in the MLB draft. What has to be changed to make talent the biggest factor?
Keith Law: Hard slotting would do that. It would also completely fuck the players over, especially the best ones.

Zach: Which twins arm of winder, balazovic or Duran do you have the most faith in?
Keith Law: Balazovic, Winder, Duran, in that order.

Bob: Has Vlad exceeded your expectations at this point or simply lived up to what you expected?
Keith Law: This is what he was supposed to be. Just took him an extra year or so.

Buster Bluth: Do you consider yourself high, low or about even with other scouts on Jarren Duran?  And does it seem odd to you to make the call when Kikè was finally starting to hit a little bit to go with the excellent defense?
Keith Law: Kiké is who he is. What he did in the last two weeks doesn’t change that at all.

Brett: Best chance of becoming a GUY between Tyler Freeman, Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Volpe?
Keith Law: Volpe, Gunnar, Freeman, in that order.

Sam Tiger: What do you think the upside is of Dillion Dingler?
Keith Law: All-Star catcher.

Guest: Your Yankees review was better than I expected (given that Sweeney was something like 89th on your top 100 and I don’t think Selvidge or Beck were in your top 100). Do you get the sense that Selvidge (and maybe Fitts) gets any overslot deal? Do they have a chance of signing either of the post 10th round high school Seans? (Hermann and Hard)
Keith Law: Selvidge and Fitts were better prospects in October than now, and I think they have to take less than they probably expected. I wonder if they can sign Hard because he’s a local kid and played on their scout teams. They were one of the only teams scouting him the day I saw him.

Arnold: Will Bednar’s draft stock rose through the College World Series as he pitched the Mississippi State Bulldogs to the national title, but with only two proven good pitches–fastball and slider–does he have enough for the major league level or can he develop his change-up that he did not have to use much in college?
Keith Law: I don’t really believe his stock rose then – he wasn’t as good as he was in his last outing every time out.
Keith Law: I wrote about his strengths and weaknesses in the Giants team report (linked up top).

Eh Team: Did Arizona really pick Lawlar without a deal in place?
Keith Law: Maybe. I mean, if he wants to walk away from $5.7MM+ and go to college, go for it. I don’t think any player has ever turned down a bonus that large.

Owen Sharts Stanalyticsplant: Is there any hope for an AFL season this year?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything yet. I am afraid they’ll cancel it to save the $4.73 they spend on the league each year.

The Jolly Roger: Adam Frazier for Nick Madrigal. Who says no?
Keith Law: Man, that is really interesting. I would guess the White Sox would say no … but it seems good for both sides, especially with Chicago in great position to win this year.

Bob: Gunnar Hogland might be a great pick for the Jays at 19, but what is the track record of pitchers who have had TJ in college?
Keith Law: I don’t believe it’s any different from pitchers who’ve had it in the minors.

Neez Duts: Why is the futures game just 7 innings? That maybe gives you one at bat for the prospects who start out on the bench. I hope they go back to 9 inning games in the future (totally intended)
Keith Law: Because of fears they wouldn’t have enough pitching for 9 innings. I hate the 7-inning format and hate that it’s on TV against a full slate of 15 MLB games.
Keith Law: Just do it another night. Do it Monday afternoon. Do it literally any other time the field is available.

Stevo: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat. How surprised were you that Rocker landed in the Mets’ lap?
Keith Law: I wasn’t, I mentioned that possibility at least a month ago. Everyone knew it was in play, at least.

Alex: Do you think the Orioles’ farm system has improved overall since the start of the season with the positive developments of Rodriguez, Henderson, Rutschman, Hall (barring health) etc.? What is their biggest need?
Keith Law: Yes, so far, so good, other than Kjerstad (totally beyond their control). Solid start for Joey Ortiz too. They still need more pitching, but who doesn’t?

buccoguin: Do teams have “agreements” or at least detailed conversations about demands with certain players.  IE did the Pirates have a good idea what Chandler and White would require to get them out of their football commitments?
Keith Law: Oh absolutely.

Tom: We should be expecting a very different Kelenic this time around, right?
Keith Law: Yes, I predict he has at least one hit in his first 35 at bats.

Guest: Damon Oppenheimer said that Brendon Beck is a guy who could move quickly and doesn’t have much to work on- just get innings. Do you agree and does that timeline sound like 1st half of next year for a debut?
Keith Law: I agree. Low ceiling, high floor.

John: You had Jarren Duran at #93 on your prospects list in the offseason. Approximately how far would he have moved up the list if you updated the ranking now?
Keith Law: I’m updating it next week. I’ll have to decide if I include players in the majors who haven’t exceeded rookie limits, though.

BD: Nats draft you said was low ceiling?   Why?
Keith Law: I said that because it was low ceiling (after House, who is all ceiling, no floor).

buccoguin: Thoughts on Mitch Keller at this point in the season?  Was he overhyped or just a rough start to his career?
Keith Law: He has needed a pitch for lefties for four years now, and we’ve seen no change (pun intended). He seems like a good candidate for a splitter, which would help solve the problem.

Brett: The Royals have been heavily criticized for taking prep arms with their early picks this draft. Dayton Moore stated they did this because they didn’t want college guys with “4th or 5th starter ceilings.” Besides seeming like an unnecessary shot at his 2018 class of college arms, do you see this as being a valid defense? Were the college arms available to KC at 7 “4th or 5th starter ceiling” types? I certainly hadn’t seen that ceiling placed on Rocker.
Keith Law: Even if that’s true, it omits the part about college starter prospects often having higher floors.
Keith Law: Rocker ain’t a 4th/5th starter, either. Nor is Bachman.

El Guapo: Jo Adele’s k% is below 24% and his OPS is north of .900 for the last month at AAA. It’s a small sample but the trend lines across all of his AAA works supports this directional improvement. This is basically what he was doing at AA in 2019 when everyone had him as a top 10-15 prospects at worst. He’s still only 22 and by most statistical standards doing well in AAA. Is this a case where we can’t unsee 2020? Or is there still a star player on there?
Keith Law: There ight still be a star there, but Salt Lake is a great place to hit, and I’m sure AAA pitching looks a good bit easier to hit than what he saw in the majors. He has to come back up to the majors at some point and show the progress is real.

Joe D.: Any idea how far over slot the Dodgers will have to go to sign Heubeck?  I assume Bruns will sign under-slot to balance things out within their draft pool?
Keith Law: I think they’ll go under in most of the rounds from 4 to 10 to cover any shortfall.

Guest: Do you see Pratto and Witt being promoted to Triple A this year?
Keith Law: Witt yes. Pratto maybe.
Keith Law: Witt will be up in September. I don’t have inside info; I’m just speculating based on how they feel about him. And I’m in favor of the move.

Noah: What do you think about a Duran Duran cover band called Jarren Duran?  “His name Jarren and he bats with his left hand.” (to the tune of “Rio”)
Keith Law: Needs work.

buccoguin: Just curious what makes some questions attractive and others not?  What is your question to answer ratio?  Cheers
Keith Law: I am lucky if I answer 20% of what I get. I do try to answer questions I haven’t answered in articles already, though.

TomBruno23: My son is in a 6U league and is showing pretty strong exit velocity and launch angle. One more game on the slate if you want to hit up the Ballwin Athletic Association Field #7 later this afternoon.
Keith Law: I heard his makeup is terrible.

James: I’ve seen most people speculating Rocker’s ETA as 2022. Can you elaborate on how himself and his situation differs from Crochet who was able to be a bullpen piece for the Sox down the stretch of his draft year
Keith Law: Because Rocker is a starter and Crochet is a reliever.

Finny: What’s up with Jesus Luzardo? He has been a hot mess, even after his demotion. Is it mechanical? Lost confidence? Or is he just not as good as we thought?
Keith Law: He’s good when healthy, but is infrequently healthy. Maybe he’s just not 100% right now, but not hurt enough for the IL?

Robbie: Not much of a question – but have to see this all star week as a monumental success for the future of the MLB. While Manfred and other’s try and hold back the game, the younger generation of the game puts baseball in the best place that it has been in in a long time. Ohtani’s all star jersey is up for auction for over 100K!
Keith Law: Yes. And I think the draft event was a big success.

TJ: Klaw, working under the presumption that both Jobe and Mayer have similar odds of success, why would a team pick a player who contributes once every five days over one who contributes every day?
Keith Law: A starting pitcher has several times more impact on his days than a position player does on any one of his days.

frank: SSS aside, Based on the reports about volpe, do you think he would have gone higher in the draft?
Keith Law: No. He didn’t show these tools in HS – especially not the speed – and that class of HS position player has historically been disdained by scouts/directors. Now this year it’s different. I wonder if him going off and Nick Yorke holding his own is causing the pendulum to swing too far the other way. We can be sheep sometimes.

Johann Sebastian Vogelbach: This is from a bit out of left field but am I crazy for thinking “innings” limits are a bit silly when what should really be tracked are total pitches? Am I thinking far too much into it or is it likely teams are aware that pitches more precisely capture workload instead of innings
Keith Law: Teams use pitch counts. And more.

Ryan: MLB.com said that Lawlar was the highest ranked player on the Dbacks board. Have you heard if this is true?
Keith Law: Yes, I’m 99% sure that’s right.

Taylor: Is Jordan Lawlar the Dbacks highest upside position player since Justin Upton? Also, Kevin Goldstein said that Lawlar night be a tough sign and there’s concerns he may go to Vanderbilt. Have you heard these signability concerns with him?
Keith Law: I wrote about those concerns before the draft – that if he didn’t go 6th, he might go to school.

Mike: You still wear husky sized jeans ?
Keith Law: Someone clearly has no idea what I look like.

Nate: What position do you like bubba Chandler at? Should the pirates let him pitch and hit for at least a couple of years?
Keith Law: Pitcher. Don’t fuck around with two-way stuff. Just let these kids learn one thing.

Jay: Has Biden being President caused noticeable traffic issues for you in Wilmington with frequent visits?
Keith Law: We do get JoeJams near here sometimes.
Keith Law: It’s only on certain weekends, though, and you just avoid 141 & Barley Mill road. You see the electronic signs that say “NO DRONES” and you know Joe’s home.
Keith Law: I’ve got to run, but thank you all for the questions and for the kind words on my writeups this week. Stay safe!